{"id":99965,"date":"2026-02-20T00:27:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T23:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=99965"},"modified":"2026-02-19T16:16:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T15:16:32","slug":"jose-nino-izrael-potrebuje-cas-pred-dalsi-valkou-s-iranem-a-tady-je-duvod","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/20\/jose-nino-izrael-potrebuje-cas-pred-dalsi-valkou-s-iranem-a-tady-je-duvod\/","title":{"rendered":"Jos\u00e9 Ni\u00f1o: Izrael pot\u0159ebuje \u010das p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lkou s \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u2013 a tady je d\u016fvod"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se ocitly v nezvykl\u00e9 situaci. Pot\u00e9, co Pentagon b\u011bhem Dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lky v \u010dervnu 2025 nasadil na obranu Izraele p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 150 protiletadlov\u00fdch raket THAAD a 80 raket SM-3, \u010del\u00ed st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e9 realit\u011b. Jeho z\u00e1soby jsou vy\u010derp\u00e1ny, v\u00fdrobn\u00ed linky nesta\u010d\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00fd konflikt s \u00cdr\u00e1nem by vy\u017eadoval protivzdu\u0161nou obranu, kterou Amerika ji\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee pln\u011b zajistit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou nen\u00ed, zda Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty cht\u011bj\u00ed znovu za\u00fato\u010dit na \u00cdr\u00e1n. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda si to mohou dovolit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prozat\u00edm se zd\u00e1, \u017ee odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed ne. Historie v\u0161ak nazna\u010duje, \u017ee tato pauza m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pouze do\u010dasn\u00e1, kdy jedn\u00e1n\u00ed neslou\u017e\u00ed jako skute\u010dn\u00e1 cesta k m\u00edru, ale jako strategick\u00fd oddech, zat\u00edmco Izrael dopl\u0148uje sv\u00e9 vy\u010derpan\u00e9 z\u00e1soby munice a protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. Koneckonc\u016f, samotn\u00e1 dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lka za\u010dala uprost\u0159ed prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 kritici nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d politick\u00fdm spektrem ozna\u010duj\u00ed bu\u010f za \u00famysln\u00fd podvod, nebo za diplomatick\u00fd proces cynicky sabotovan\u00fd Izraelem.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem st\u0159etu s Izraelem se izraelsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da usilovn\u011b sna\u017eila omezit narativ o tom, co \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety skute\u010dn\u011b zas\u00e1hly. Vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kony o cenzu\u0159e br\u00e1nily novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm v informov\u00e1n\u00ed o m\u00edstech dopad\u016f v bl\u00edzkosti citliv\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Satelitn\u00ed data v\u0161ak vykreslovala jin\u00fd obraz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va den\u00edku Daily Telegraph, kter\u00e1 vych\u00e1zela z radarov\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy Oregonsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed univerzity, zjistila, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety zas\u00e1hly s pozoruhodnou p\u0159esnost\u00ed nejm\u00e9n\u011b p\u011bt izraelsk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Mezi n\u011b pat\u0159ila leteck\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna Tel Nof, t\u00e1bor Glilot, kde s\u00eddl\u00ed jednotka 8200, p\u0159edn\u00ed izraelsk\u00e1 jednotka sign\u00e1lov\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu, a zbrojn\u00ed tov\u00e1rna Zipporit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z t\u011bchto \u00fatok\u016f nebyl hl\u00e1\u0161en v Izraeli. Profesor Jerome Bourdon z Telavivsk\u00e9 univerzity uvedl: \u201ePravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se nikdy nedozv\u00edme pln\u00fd rozsah \u0161kod.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Ropn\u00e1 rafinerie Bazan v Haif\u011b byla na dva t\u00fddny uzav\u0159ena s odhadovanou ztr\u00e1tou 250 milion\u016f dolar\u016f. L\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9 centrum Soroka v Beer\u0161ev\u011b bylo p\u0159\u00edmo zasa\u017eeno \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm raketov\u00fdm \u00fatokem. Nejkriti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bylo, \u017ee 18. \u010dervna americk\u00fd \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee Izraeli zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen velmi m\u00e1lo protiraketov\u00fdch st\u0159el Arrow. List Washington Post informoval o odhadech, \u017ee Izrael by si mohl udr\u017eet protiraketovou obranu pouze dal\u0161\u00edch deset a\u017e dvan\u00e1ct dn\u00ed. D\u00e9lka v\u00e1lky byla omezena fyzick\u00fdmi omezen\u00edmi arzen\u00e1l\u016f obou stran.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lky Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vyu\u017eily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25 % sv\u00fdch celkov\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1sob syst\u00e9mu THAAD a odp\u00e1lily zhruba 150 st\u00edhac\u00edch raket. Nasadily tak\u00e9 80 st\u00edhac\u00edch raket SM-3 a 30 st\u00edhac\u00edch raket Patriot PAC-3. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee v\u00fdroba zdaleka nedr\u017e\u00ed krok se spot\u0159ebou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1chytn\u00e9 st\u0159ely THAAD se vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed pouze v po\u010dtu jeden\u00e1cti a\u017e dvan\u00e1cti kus\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9m tempu v\u00fdroby by trvalo v\u00edce ne\u017e dvan\u00e1ct let, ne\u017e by se nahradilo sto pades\u00e1t z\u00e1chytn\u00fdch st\u0159el pou\u017eit\u00fdch ve dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Analytici CSIS koncem roku 2025 varovali, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 z\u00e1chytn\u00e9 st\u0159ely THAAD nebudou dod\u00e1ny p\u0159ed rokem 2027, co\u017e by vytvo\u0159ilo nebezpe\u010dnou mezeru.<\/span><\/p>\n

I pot\u00e9, co Pentagon realokoval 700 milion\u016f dolar\u016f na n\u00e1kup syst\u00e9mu THAAD, to pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 pouze asi 45 raket v hodnot\u011b 15 milion\u016f dolar\u016f za kus. Jak varoval Ari Cicurel z JINSA: \u201eIzrael i USA spot\u0159ebovaly obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed sv\u00fdch z\u00e1sob protiraketov\u00fdch st\u0159el. St\u00e1le m\u00e1me daleko k n\u00e1vratu na \u00farove\u0148, kterou jsme m\u011bli d\u0159\u00edve.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

V lednu 2026 bij\u00ed experti na obranu na poplach, \u017ee vy\u010derpan\u00e9 z\u00e1soby protiraketov\u00fdch st\u0159el omezuj\u00ed mo\u017enosti Trumpovy administrativy ohledn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu, proto\u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lka by vy\u017eadovala stejn\u00fd obrann\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk, kter\u00fd Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ji\u017e nedok\u00e1\u017eou pln\u011b poskytnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nedostatek z\u00e1chytn\u00fdch raket je pouze p\u0159\u00edznakem hlub\u0161\u00edho struktur\u00e1ln\u00edho probl\u00e9mu. Zpr\u00e1va zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e1 v dubnu 2025 Nadac\u00ed pro obranu demokraci\u00ed zkoumala dvacet p\u011bt zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly nebo potenci\u00e1ln\u011b m\u011bly b\u00fdt sl\u00edbeny Tchaj-wanu, Ukrajin\u011b a Izraeli. V\u00fdsledek byl jasn\u00fd: pouze sedm z dvaceti p\u011bti m\u011blo silnou z\u00e1kladnu obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, zat\u00edmco zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch osmn\u00e1ct bylo bu\u010f slab\u00fdch, nebo vy\u017eadovalo zna\u010dnou pozornost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vezm\u011bme si nap\u0159\u00edklad d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 gran\u00e1ty r\u00e1\u017ee 155 mm. Arm\u00e1da si dala za c\u00edl vyr\u00e1b\u011bt do \u0159\u00edjna 2025 100 000 gran\u00e1t\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. V \u010dervnu 2025 \u010dinila produkce pouze 40 000 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. I toto \u010d\u00edslo je zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed. M\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b se vyr\u00e1b\u011blo pouze 18 000 kompletn\u00edch gran\u00e1t\u016f s pohonnou hmotou, proto\u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se na pohonnou hmotu pro d\u011blost\u0159electvo spol\u00e9haj\u00ed z jedin\u00e9 tov\u00e1rny v Kanad\u011b a nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdrobu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a \u00cdr\u00e1n obnovily 6. \u00fanora 2026 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v Maskatu v Om\u00e1nu. Po osmim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159est\u00e1vce po Dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lce byla jedn\u00e1n\u00ed obnovena s delegacemi veden\u00fdmi Stevem Witkoffem a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abb\u00e1sem Araghchim.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed vzbuzuje skepsi. Dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lka za\u010dala 13. \u010dervna 2025, p\u0159esn\u011b t\u0159i dny p\u0159ed pl\u00e1novan\u00fdm \u0161est\u00fdm kolem jadern\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Izrael za\u00fato\u010dil v dob\u011b, kdy se \u00cdr\u00e1n nach\u00e1zel ve f\u00e1zi, kterou den\u00edk War on the Rocks popsal jako \u201ediplomatickou posedlost Washingtonem\u201c a \u201evojenskou nep\u0159ipravenost\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Araghchi popsal \u00fatoky jako \u201ezradu diplomacie\u201c a prohl\u00e1sil: \u201eM\u011bli jsme se 15. \u010dervna setkat s Ameri\u010dany, abychom vypracovali velmi slibnou dohodu… Byla to zrada diplomacie a bezprecedentn\u00ed r\u00e1na z\u00e1klad\u016fm mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Wall Street Journal uvedl: \u201eAmerick\u00e1 diplomacie slou\u017eila jako z\u00e1st\u011brka pro p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok.\u201c Trump po \u00fatoc\u00edch listu New York Post \u0159ekl: \u201eV\u017edycky jsem znal datum. Proto\u017ee v\u00edm v\u0161echno.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Doug Bandow poznamenal, \u017ee Cato Institute uvedl, \u017ee izrael\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 prohl\u00e1sili, \u017ee \u201eIzrael a USA vedou mnohovrstevnatou dezinforma\u010dn\u00ed kampa\u0148\u201c, aby p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dily \u00cdr\u00e1n, \u017ee \u00fatok nen\u00ed bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed, a \u017ee Trump \u201ebyl aktivn\u00edm \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edkem podvodu a byl o vojensk\u00e9 operaci informov\u00e1n od rozhodnut\u00ed premi\u00e9ra Benjamina Netanjahua pokra\u010dovat v \u00fatoku\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zda sou\u010dasn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed skute\u010dnou diplomacii, nebo dal\u0161\u00ed strategickou pauzu, se teprve uvid\u00ed. Araghchi uvedl, \u017ee \u201eexistuj\u00edc\u00ed ned\u016fv\u011bra p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdznamnou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eku\u201c pokroku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho hlediska slou\u017e\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, bez ohledu na diplomatick\u00e9 z\u00e1m\u011bry, jasn\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu: kupuj\u00ed \u010das. V roce 2024 izraelsk\u00e9 ministerstvo obrany nakoupilo zbran\u011b v hodnot\u011b 220 miliard \u0161ekel\u016f, co\u017e je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 61,5 miliardy dolar\u016f, co\u017e je \u010dty\u0159ikr\u00e1t v\u00edce ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech, co\u017e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nal\u00e9havou pot\u0159ebu dopln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sob. Izrael nyn\u00ed urychluje v\u00fdvoj a v\u00fdrobu syst\u00e9m\u016f Arrow 3, Arrow 4, Iron Dome, David\u016fv prak a pozemn\u00edch laserov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho druh\u00e9ho kola zad\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u010del\u00ed stejn\u00e9 nutnosti. Trumpova administrativa sl\u00edbila rekordn\u00ed obrann\u00fd rozpo\u010det ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1 bilionu dolar\u016f a NDAA 2026 schv\u00e1lila v\u00edcelet\u00e9 zad\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 typy munice. Odborn\u00edci v\u0161ak varuj\u00ed, \u017ee a\u010dkoli jsou tato opat\u0159en\u00ed nezbytn\u00e1, nejsou dostate\u010dn\u00e1 vzhledem k rozd\u00edlu mezi v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacitou a skute\u010dnou m\u00edrou spot\u0159eby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, jak dlouho bude trvat obnoven\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00e1sob, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 uva\u017eovat o dal\u0161\u00edm velk\u00e9m konfliktu. Vzhledem k produkci jeden\u00e1cti a\u017e dvan\u00e1cti st\u00edhac\u00edch raket THAAD ro\u010dn\u011b a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm nov\u00fdm dod\u00e1vk\u00e1m p\u0159ed rokem 2027 je odpov\u011b\u010f: v letech, nikoli v m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedna v\u011bc je jasn\u00e1: vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky se op\u011bt dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed do centra pozornosti. A navzdory neust\u00e1l\u00e9mu sebechv\u00e1len\u00ed jako v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9ho jevu \u010del\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty stejn\u00fdm omezen\u00edm zdroj\u016f, kter\u00fdm p\u0159ed nimi \u010delily v\u0161echny smrteln\u00e9 imperi\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 hry po\u0159\u00e1dan\u00e9 Centrem pro novou americkou bezpe\u010dnost uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm by v boji s \u010c\u00ednou o Tchaj-wan do\u0161la munice dlouh\u00e9ho doletu za m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e t\u00fdden. Dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lka uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nemohou ani podpo\u0159it spojence ve vysoce intenzivn\u00edm konfliktu, ani\u017e by drasticky vy\u010derpaly sv\u00e9 z\u00e1soby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem by mohla p\u0159edstavovat skute\u010dnou diplomacii. Nebo by mohla b\u00fdt taktickou pauzou, kter\u00e1 by Izraeli poskytla \u010das na obnovu obranyschopnosti p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00edm kolem. A\u0165 tak \u010di onak, omezen\u00ed zdroj\u016f jsou re\u00e1ln\u00e1. Mezery ve v\u00fdrob\u011b jsou re\u00e1ln\u00e9. A fyzick\u00e1 omezen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu nyn\u00ed omezuj\u00ed mo\u017enosti zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky zp\u016fsobem, jak\u00fd Washington neza\u017eil po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edm d\u0159\u00edve Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty tyto limity uznaj\u00ed a budou prosazovat zdr\u017eenliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku, t\u00edm l\u00e9pe pro n\u011b bude. Alternativou je nad\u00e1le p\u0159edst\u00edrat, \u017ee se z\u00e1soby samy dopl\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee se v\u00fdrobn\u00ed linky mohou magicky zrychlit a \u017ee Amerika m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st neomezenou v\u00e1lku v neomezen\u00e9m po\u010dtu vojen bez n\u00e1sledk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lka dok\u00e1zala opak. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda se Washington z n\u00ed pou\u010dil.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se ocitly v nezvykl\u00e9 situaci. Pot\u00e9, co Pentagon b\u011bhem Dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lky v \u010dervnu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":99966,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99965"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99965\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}