{"id":99792,"date":"2026-02-18T04:22:55","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T03:22:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=99792"},"modified":"2026-02-18T04:22:55","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T03:22:55","slug":"andrew-korybko-blokada-iranu-podobna-te-venezuelske-by-mohla-usa-umoznit-rozdel-a-panuj-v-ric","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/18\/andrew-korybko-blokada-iranu-podobna-te-venezuelske-by-mohla-usa-umoznit-rozdel-a-panuj-v-ric\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Blok\u00e1da \u00cdr\u00e1nu podobn\u00e1 t\u00e9 venezuelsk\u00e9 by mohla USA umo\u017enit \u201erozd\u011bl a panuj\u201c v RIC"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Kask\u00e1dov\u00e9 d\u016fsledky takov\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 nakonec nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt uvalena kv\u016fli vysok\u00e9mu riziku v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, by mohly sou\u010dasn\u011b oslabit Rusko, Indii a \u010c\u00ednu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wall Street Journal\u00a0uvedl<\/a>, \u017ee Trump 2.0 zva\u017euje uvalen\u00ed ropn\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy na \u00cdr\u00e1n podobn\u00e9 t\u00e9 venezuelsk\u00e9. Dosud tak neu\u010dinil kv\u016fli obav\u00e1m, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl za\u00fato\u010dit na region\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle USA a\/nebo zabavit ropn\u00e9 tankery sv\u00fdch spojenc\u016f v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e oba sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e by destabilizovaly glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ropn\u00fd trh a zv\u00fd\u0161ily riziko v\u00e1lky, tak\u017ee k tomu nakonec mo\u017en\u00e1 nikdy nedojde. Pokud by v\u0161ak USA \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b uvalily takovou blok\u00e1du, mohly by obratn\u011b rozd\u011blit a ovl\u00e1dnout Rusko, Indii a \u010c\u00ednu (RIC).<\/p>\n

\u201eUSA cht\u011bj\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu replikovat venezuelsk\u00fd model<\/a>\u201c t\u00edm, \u017ee donut\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n pod\u0159\u00eddit se USA a pod\u0159\u00eddit jim sv\u016fj energetick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. \u201eTrumpova doktr\u00edna<\/a>\u201c, kter\u00e1 vych\u00e1z\u00ed ze \u201eStrategie pop\u0159en\u00ed\u201c n\u00e1m\u011bstka ministra obrany pro politiku Elbridge Colbyho, se sna\u017e\u00ed odep\u0159\u00edt strategick\u00e9 zdroje rival\u016fm USA. V souladu s t\u00edm m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem na omezen\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho dovozu\u00a01,38 milionu barel\u016f<\/a>\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy denn\u011b, kter\u00fd \u010c\u00edna realizovala v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce a kter\u00fd by mohl tvrd\u011b zas\u00e1hnout jej\u00ed ekonomiku, pokud by nebyl nahrazen (co\u017e by mohlo b\u00fdt obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9).<\/p>\n

Tyto v\u00fdvozy by pak mohly b\u00fdt\u00a0p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1ny do Indie<\/a>, co\u017e by Indii umo\u017enilo v\u00edce ne\u017e nahradit jej\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd dovoz\u00a01 milionu barel\u016f<\/a>\u00a0rusk\u00e9 ropy denn\u011b v minul\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u00fdnosy by byly ulo\u017eeny na \u00faschovn\u00edm \u00fa\u010dtu\u00a0podle venezuelsk\u00e9ho precedentu<\/a>\u00a0a uvoln\u011bny \u00cdr\u00e1nu, pokud uzav\u0159e s USA dohodu o jadern\u00e9m programu a raket\u00e1ch. T\u00edmto zp\u016fsobem by Indie mohla zcela zastavit dovoz rusk\u00e9 ropy a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pos\u00edlit roli USA v oblasti energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti, p\u0159esn\u011b tak, jak si p\u0159eje Trump 2.0, co\u017e by nakonec zp\u016fsobilo neuv\u011b\u0159itelnou \u0161kodu RIC.<\/p>\n

Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy Ruska z t\u011bchto prodej\u016f by se sn\u00ed\u017eily a realisticky by je bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 nahradit pouze \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm prodej\u016f do \u010c\u00edny, co\u017e v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt tak snadn\u00e9, jak se zd\u00e1.\u00a0Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie p\u0159ipravuje kampa\u0148<\/a>\u00a0na zabaven\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u201est\u00ednov\u00e9 flotily\u201c v Laman\u0161sk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu pot\u00e9, co ji povzbudilo\u00a0zabaven\u00ed ropn\u00e9ho tankeru pluj\u00edc\u00edho pod ruskou vlajkou<\/a>\u00a0pobl\u00ed\u017e jej\u00edch b\u0159eh\u016f ze strany USA. Pokud Rusko neulo\u017e\u00ed Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, a neulo\u017eilo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ani USA za tento \u010din,\u00a0pak<\/a>\u00a0se jej\u00ed tankery z Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e mo\u017en\u00e1 nikdy nedostanou do \u010c\u00edny.<\/p>\n

Ty z \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e se tam tak\u00e9 nemus\u00ed dostat, pokud se Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed spoj\u00ed s \u0158eckem a Kyprem, aby od\u0159\u00edzlo ruskou \u201est\u00ednovou flotilu\u201c i z tohoto sm\u011bru. Exporty ropovodem, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed omezenou kapacitu, by pak byly jedin\u00fdm prost\u0159edkem, jak nahradit \u010d\u00e1st ztracen\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch export\u016f ropy do Indie a \u010c\u00edny, krom\u011b relativn\u011b minim\u00e1ln\u00edch export\u016f tankery z D\u00e1ln\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. V\u00fdsledn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd tlak na Rusko a \u010c\u00ednu by je mohl u\u010dinit n\u00e1chyln\u00fdmi k jednostrann\u00fdm dohod\u00e1m s USA ohledn\u011b\u00a0Ukrajiny<\/a>\u00a0a obchodu.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o Indii, ta ji\u017e uzav\u0159ela \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b jednostrannou dohodu s USA, pokud jde o\u00a0neform\u00e1ln\u00ed protihodnotu<\/a>, kdy souhlasila s nulov\u00fdm dovozem rusk\u00e9 ropy v\u00fdm\u011bnou za jejich obchodn\u00ed dohodu, a rostouc\u00ed vliv USA na energetickou bezpe\u010dnost Indie by mohl omezit jej\u00ed t\u011b\u017ece vydobytou strategickou autonomii. To by pak mohlo b\u00fdt vyu\u017eito k vynucen\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1kupu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb Indi\u00ed, aby se zv\u00fd\u0161il tlak na \u010c\u00ednskou lidovou republiku, aby souhlasila s vlastn\u00ed jednostrannou obchodn\u00ed dohodou s USA.<\/p>\n

Tento nejhor\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 rozd\u011blen\u00ed a ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed RIC ze strany USA lze odvr\u00e1tit t\u00edm, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n odrad\u00ed nebo prolom\u00ed blok\u00e1du USA na svou ropu a Rusko u\u010din\u00ed tot\u00e9\u017e v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jak\u00e9koli britsk\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy proti sv\u00e9 \u201est\u00ednov\u00e9 flotile\u201c. Tyto mo\u017enosti vy\u017eaduj\u00ed obrovskou politickou v\u016fli, proto\u017ee s sebou nesou potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed riziko vypuknut\u00ed hork\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi velmocemi, tak\u017ee nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda budou realizov\u00e1ny, ale stejn\u011b tak by se USA a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie mohly nakonec z t\u00e9ho\u017e d\u016fvodu od sv\u00fdch mo\u017en\u00fdch blok\u00e1d distancovat.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kask\u00e1dov\u00e9 d\u016fsledky takov\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 nakonec nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt uvalena kv\u016fli vysok\u00e9mu riziku v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":99793,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,569,38,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99792"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99792\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}