{"id":99340,"date":"2026-02-13T00:13:19","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T23:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=99340"},"modified":"2026-02-12T08:22:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T07:22:16","slug":"douglas-macgregor-potencialni-valka-mezi-usa-a-iranem-by-se-mohla-vymknout-kontrole","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/13\/douglas-macgregor-potencialni-valka-mezi-usa-a-iranem-by-se-mohla-vymknout-kontrole\/","title":{"rendered":"Douglas Macgregor: Potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem by se mohla vymknout kontrole"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru se soudcem Andrewem Napolitanem na televizn\u00edm kan\u00e1lu Judging Freedom varoval plukovn\u00edk Douglas Macgregor, b\u00fdval\u00fd americk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd expert, p\u0159ed riziky konfliktu mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Macgregor zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee takov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka by mohla m\u00edt nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, v\u010detn\u011b region\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace a glob\u00e1ln\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch dopad\u016f. Rozhovor, kter\u00fd se konal 10. \u00fanora 2026, se dotkl tak\u00e9 t\u00e9mat, jako je tchajwansk\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, Ukrajina a nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva izraelsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Benjamina Netanjahua u prezidenta Donalda Trumpa.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Plukovn\u00edk Douglas Macgregor: V\u00e1lka mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem by se mohla vymknout kontrole\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/NAfUTVwcaCs?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed kritika americk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch intervenc\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nevyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky se v modern\u00edch d\u011bjin\u00e1ch staly b\u011b\u017enou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed a bohu\u017eel se americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da \u010dasto zapojuje do preventivn\u00edch v\u00e1lek, kter\u00e9 se neomezuj\u00ed pouze na agresi, bez jak\u00e9hokoli protestu americk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti. Spole\u010dnost si zvykla na nelegitimn\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly ze strany vl\u00e1dy. Abychom vytvo\u0159ili skute\u010dn\u011b svobodnou spole\u010dnost, je nutn\u00e9 pochopit a odm\u00edtnout princip iniciov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor cituje historick\u00e9 myslitele, jako je Thomas Jefferson, a klade provokativn\u00ed ot\u00e1zky: Co kdy\u017e n\u011bkdy mus\u00edte milovat svou zemi t\u00edm, \u017ee zm\u011bn\u00edte nebo zru\u0161\u00edte jej\u00ed vl\u00e1du? Co kdy\u017e je nejlep\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1da ta, kter\u00e1 vl\u00e1dne nejm\u00e9n\u011b? A co kdy\u017e nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozba pro svobodu existuje pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f?<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna a Tchaj-wan<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ne\u017e se Macgregor v\u011bnuje hlavn\u00edmu t\u00e9matu, pod\u00edv\u00e1 se na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Tchaj-wan ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee nep\u0159esune 40 procent sv\u00e9 v\u00fdroby mikro\u010dip\u016f do USA, jak bylo d\u0159\u00edve dohodnuto. T\u00edm se fakticky ru\u0161\u00ed pl\u00e1novan\u00e1 investice ve v\u00fd\u0161i 250 miliard dolar\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 pevninsk\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna podporuje pro-sjednocuj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edly na Tchaj-wanu, zejm\u00e9na stranu Kuomintang (KMT), kter\u00e1 sah\u00e1 a\u017e do doby \u010cankaj\u0161ka.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kuomintang v sou\u010dasnosti dominuje tchajwansk\u00e9mu parlamentu a zasazuje se o m\u00edrov\u00e9 znovusjednocen\u00ed s pevninou, podobn\u011b jako v Hongkongu. Jen m\u00e1lo Ameri\u010dan\u016f si uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee na Tchaj-wanu neexistuje siln\u00e1 touha po nez\u00e1vislosti; parlament naopak blokuje ve\u0161ker\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed prezidenta ve prosp\u011bch nez\u00e1vislosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor vysv\u011btluje, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici. Peking nechce v\u00e1lku o Tchaj-wan, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e m\u00edrov\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed. Pokud by v\u0161ak do\u0161lo ke konfliktu, USA by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zni\u010dily tov\u00e1rnu TSMC, p\u0159edn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 centrum pro v\u00fdrobu mikro\u010dip\u016f, aby zabr\u00e1nily \u010c\u00edn\u011b v jej\u00edm z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Spole\u010dnost TSMC zalo\u017eil Morris Chang, b\u00fdval\u00fd zam\u011bstnanec Texas Instruments, a je zn\u00e1m\u00e1 sv\u00fdmi vysoce slo\u017eit\u00fdmi polovodi\u010di. Pl\u00e1ny na p\u0159esun v\u00fdroby do USA \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b ma\u0159\u00ed probl\u00e9my s um\u00edst\u011bn\u00edm. Tov\u00e1rna je pl\u00e1nov\u00e1na v arizonsk\u00e9 pou\u0161ti, kde nedostatek vody a kvalifikovan\u00e9 pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky. Historicky je Tchaj-wan sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u010c\u00edny, jak uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed USA od \u0160anghajsk\u00e9ho komunik\u00e9 z roku 1972. Macgregor argumentuje proti br\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed znovusjednocen\u00ed, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Tchaj-wan byl pod japonskou nadvl\u00e1dou jen kr\u00e1tce.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">Ukrajina<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00ed aspekt rozhovoru se t\u00fdk\u00e1 Ukrajiny. Macgregor vid\u00ed zn\u00e1mky velk\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 jarn\u00ed ofenzivy na v\u00fdchod\u011b a jihu zem\u011b. Rusko se p\u0159ipravuje na dobyt\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed, jako je Od\u011bsa a Charkiv, historicky rusky mluv\u00edc\u00edch, na kter\u00e1 si od za\u010d\u00e1tku n\u00e1rokuje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ofenz\u00edva na Kyjev je mo\u017en\u00e1 vzhledem k oslaben\u00e9mu stavu ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil, ale Rusko nechce ovl\u00e1dat celou Ukrajinu; sp\u00ed\u0161e se sna\u017e\u00ed formovat ji do podoby neutr\u00e1ln\u00edho Rakouska. C\u00edlem je integrace Novoruska (Nov\u00e9ho Ruska), jak ho v 18. stolet\u00ed zalo\u017eila Kate\u0159ina Velik\u00e1, bez vl\u00e1dy nad Ukrajinci.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">Netanjahu, Trump a \u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">J\u00e1dro rozhovoru se to\u010d\u00ed kolem nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed Netanjahuovy n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy Trumpa v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b. Macgregor o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 diskuse o koordinaci proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, v\u010detn\u011b sd\u00edlen\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee. Kolik toho vezmou na sebe USA a kolik Izrael?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Izrael m\u00e1 v Gaze nedokon\u010den\u00e9 c\u00edle a mohl by vyu\u017e\u00edt v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem k podpo\u0159e sv\u00fdch operac\u00ed v t\u00e9to oblasti, k vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed nebo \u00fatoku na Palestince a k \u00fatok\u016fm na c\u00edle v Libanonu a S\u00fdrii. USA po\u017eaduj\u00ed od \u00cdr\u00e1nu t\u0159i nerealistick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky: \u017e\u00e1dnou podporu milic\u00edm, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Izrael a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Skute\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem je zni\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, v\u010detn\u011b zm\u011bny re\u017eimu, prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00fatok\u016f na infrastrukturu, jako je voda, energie, p\u0159\u00edstavy a z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed potravinami. Macgregor varuje p\u0159ed nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm trv\u00e1n\u00edm. Podobn\u011b jako v\u00e1lka v Kosovu, kter\u00e1 trvala 78 dn\u00ed, by se tato v\u00e1lka mohla eskalovat bez rychl\u00fdch v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">Region\u00e1ln\u00ed a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by konflikt trval d\u00e9le ne\u017e dva t\u00fddny, region\u00e1ln\u00ed situace by explodovala. \u00cdr\u00e1n by podnikl odvetn\u00e9 kroky proti Izraeli a americk\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m v regionu. Zem\u011b jako Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Katar, Kuvajt, Egypt a Jord\u00e1nsko by protestovaly, proto\u017ee by to po\u0161kodilo jejich ekonomiky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Navzdory sv\u00fdm neshod\u00e1m s \u00cdr\u00e1nem Turecko odm\u00edt\u00e1 my\u0161lenku zni\u010den\u00ed Izraele a mohlo by zas\u00e1hnout, pokud se k n\u00ed p\u0159ipoj\u00ed Rusko a \u010c\u00edna. Tureck\u00e9 obyvatelstvo je protiizraelsk\u00e9 a arm\u00e1da by mohla pro Izrael p\u0159edstavovat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbu ne\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor zd\u016fraz\u0148uje nebezpe\u010d\u00ed eskalace. Rusko a \u010c\u00edna maj\u00ed z\u00e1jem na p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu a mohly by zas\u00e1hnout, pokud by byl zni\u010den. Rusko je frustrov\u00e1no z jedn\u00e1n\u00ed USA a pova\u017euje je za zbyte\u010dn\u00e1. \u010c\u00edna, z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rop\u011b, by mohla nasadit ponorky, proti kter\u00fdm nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo p\u0159ipraveno. Cena benzinu v USA by mohla prudce vzr\u016fst, pokud by byl Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv uzav\u0159en, a p\u0159ekro\u010dit 100 dolar\u016f za barel. \u010c\u00edna nav\u00edc kontroluje 90 procent rafinace vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin, kter\u00e9 jsou nezbytn\u00e9 pro obranu USA, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje dal\u0161\u00ed zranitelnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 hranice<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pro\u010d Netanjahu p\u0159ed m\u011bs\u00edcem odvolal pl\u00e1novan\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd \u00fatok? Macgregor nazna\u010duje, \u017ee v regionu chyb\u011bly americk\u00e9 lod\u011b a Mossad s\u00e1zel na vnit\u0159n\u00ed nepokoje v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, co\u017e nakonec selhalo. Navzdory tvrzen\u00edm o slabosti je \u00cdr\u00e1n siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy d\u0159\u00edve a je vybaven pokro\u010dil\u00fdmi balistick\u00fdmi a hypersonick\u00fdmi raketami.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da je omezen\u00e1. N\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo m\u00e1 z\u00e1soby munice pouze na 10 a\u017e 14 dn\u00ed, \u017e\u00e1dnou kapacitu pro nasazen\u00ed jako za druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Letectvo by mohlo intenzivn\u011b bombardovat \u010dty\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt dn\u00ed, ale \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany rusk\u00e9ho a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho p\u016fvodu by mohly detekovat letadla typu stealth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Netanjahu by odm\u00edtl jadernou dohodu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem ze strachu z jeho raketov\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu. Macgregor cituje n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho analytika: Jadern\u00e9 mocnosti jsou suver\u00e9nn\u00ed, ostatn\u00ed ne. V\u00e1lka by podpo\u0159ila \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Izrael m\u00e1 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, ani\u017e by podepsal Smlouvu o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n ji respektuje. To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nerovnost, ospravedl\u0148ovanou izraelskou histori\u00ed holocaustu a lobbistick\u00fdm vlivem v USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">Den revoluce a historick\u00e1 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n 11. \u00fanora 2026 oslav\u00ed v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed revoluce z roku 1979, kdy miliony lid\u00ed vyjdou do ulic. To by mohlo \u00fatok odd\u00e1lit. Macgregor srovn\u00e1v\u00e1 situaci s Eisenhowerem, kter\u00fd ukon\u010dil korejskou v\u00e1lku, a Kennedym, kter\u00fd zabr\u00e1nil kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 krizi. Trump by m\u011bl zv\u00e1\u017eit d\u016fsledky. Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, pouze rizika eskalace a dlouhodob\u00fdch \u0161kod.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor shrnuto nab\u00e1d\u00e1 k opatrnosti. V\u00e1lka mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem by mohla nejen destabilizovat Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, ale tak\u00e9 zapojit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti, jako je Rusko a \u010c\u00edna, s katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edmi ekonomick\u00fdmi a vojensk\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky. M\u00edsto agrese prosazuje diplomacii a realismus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru se soudcem Andrewem Napolitanem na televizn\u00edm kan\u00e1lu Judging Freedom varoval plukovn\u00edk Douglas&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62875,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1052,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99340"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99340\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62875"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}