{"id":98898,"date":"2026-02-07T00:22:50","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T23:22:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98898"},"modified":"2026-02-06T11:13:17","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T10:13:17","slug":"tomas-furst-vystoupeni-v-poslanecke-snemovne-dne-26-ledna-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/07\/tomas-furst-vystoupeni-v-poslanecke-snemovne-dne-26-ledna-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Tom\u00e1\u0161 F\u00fcrst: Vystoupen\u00ed v Poslaneck\u00e9 sn\u011bmovn\u011b dne 26. ledna 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><em>Norm\u00e1ln\u011b to ned\u011bl\u00e1m, ale tentokr\u00e1t jsem si to vystoupen\u00ed p\u0159edem napsal. Byla to chyba, proto\u017ee jsem samoz\u0159ejm\u011b \u0159\u00edkal n\u011bco \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9ho, a nav\u00edc jsem u \u0159e\u010dn\u011bn\u00ed myslel na to, \u017ee jsem si vlastn\u011b napsal n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho. Taky jsem si k\u00a0pult\u00edku zapomn\u011bl vz\u00edt pit\u00ed, tak\u017ee jsem v\u00a0p\u016flce p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku zcela nekolegi\u00e1ln\u011b ukradl sklenici Jan\u011b Zwyrtek Hamplov\u00e9. No co u\u017e. Tady m\u00e1te verzi toho, co jsem p\u016fvodn\u011b \u0159\u00edkat cht\u011bl.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Dobr\u00fd den, d\u011bkuju Jind\u0159ichovi za organizaci tohoto semin\u00e1\u0159e, d\u011bkuju za pozv\u00e1n\u00ed a d\u011bkuju ostatn\u00edm panelist\u016fm za odvahu a vytrvalost.<\/p>\n<p>Dne\u0161n\u00edm dnem \u2013 vlastn\u011b u\u017e st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00edm koment\u00e1\u0159em premi\u00e9ra Andreje Babi\u0161e o tom, \u017ee jsme m\u011bli j\u00edt \u0161v\u00e9dskou cestou \u2013 za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 posledn\u00ed t\u0159etina na\u0161eho covidov\u00e9ho utk\u00e1n\u00ed. Prvn\u00ed t\u0159etina sest\u00e1vala ze samotn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty soudnosti. Druhou t\u0159etinu jsem nazval Velk\u00fdm Covidov\u00fdm Tichem, kdy mnoho borc\u016f usilovn\u011b doufalo, \u017ee se zapomene na to, jak hr\u00e1li v\u00a0prvn\u00ed t\u0159etin\u011b. T\u0159et\u00ed t\u0159etina bude \u2013 jak pevn\u011b douf\u00e1m \u2013 sest\u00e1vat z\u00a0katarze a pou\u010den\u00ed. Doufejme, \u017ee nedojde ani na prodlou\u017een\u00ed, ani trestn\u00e9 st\u0159\u00edlen\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>B\u011bhem covidov\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty soudnosti selhaly v\u0161echny d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pil\u00ed\u0159e z\u00e1padn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Selhala moc v\u00fdkonn\u00e1, kter\u00e1 sv\u00e9voln\u011b, absurdn\u011b a kontraproduktivn\u011b omezovala z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pr\u00e1va a svobody lid\u00ed.<\/li>\n<li>Selhala moc z\u00e1konod\u00e1rn\u00e1, kter\u00e1 tomu ne\u010dinn\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eela a opakovan\u011b vystavovala exekutiv\u011b bianco \u0161eky v podob\u011b nouzov\u00fdch stav\u016f.<\/li>\n<li>Selhala moc soudn\u00ed, kter\u00e1 (s v\u00fdjimkou jednoho sen\u00e1tu Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho spr\u00e1vn\u00edho soudu) odm\u00edtla h\u00e1jit p\u0159irozen\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo a uch\u00fdlila se \u2013 jako v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edch totalit\u00e1ch \u2013 k serviln\u00edmu pr\u00e1vn\u00edmu formalismu.<\/li>\n<li>Ne\u010dekan\u00fdm a mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b odporn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem selhaly sd\u011blovac\u00ed prost\u0159edky, v \u010dele s t\u011bmi ve\u0159ejnopr\u00e1vn\u00edmi, kter\u00e9 m\u00edsto toho, aby pravdiv\u011b informovaly ve\u0159ejnost a kontrolovaly mocn\u00e9, lhaly na politickou objedn\u00e1vku.<\/li>\n<li>Selhali l\u00e9ka\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed m\u00edsto toho, aby se sna\u017eili nemocn\u00e9 l\u00e9\u010dit, bu\u010fto zav\u0159eli kr\u00e1m, nebo slou\u017eili farmaceuticko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9mu komplexu jako obchodn\u00ed odd\u011blen\u00ed.<\/li>\n<li>A jako mnohokr\u00e1t v minulosti, na \u010dele pr\u016fvodu k nov\u00e9 totalit\u011b kr\u00e1\u010deli st\u00e1tem placen\u00ed v\u011bdci, kte\u0159\u00ed na politickou objedn\u00e1vku dod\u00e1vali covidismu punc v\u011bdeckosti a legitimity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Covid p\u0159i\u0161el v\u00a021. stolet\u00ed, o kter\u00e9m mnoz\u00ed \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee bude stolet\u00edm dat. Jestli ov\u0161em n\u011bco uk\u00e1zal, tak \u017ee\u00a0<strong>na\u0161e schopnost data shroma\u017e\u010fovat dalece p\u0159evy\u0161uje na\u0161i schopnost s\u00a0nimi smyslupln\u011b pracovat<\/strong>. A proto\u017ee pr\u00e1ce s\u00a0daty m\u011b (pon\u011bkud nedobrovoln\u011b) p\u0159ivedla do \u0159ad covidov\u00fdch disident\u016f, chci v\u00e1m uk\u00e1zat n\u011bkolik fascinuj\u00edc\u00edch covidov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou zaps\u00e1ny v\u00a0datech, ale kter\u00e9 jsme dosud nedocenili a nepou\u010dili se z\u00a0nich.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Matematick\u00e9 modelov\u00e1n\u00ed je zbra\u0148 hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st covidov\u00e9 represe u n\u00e1s i v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed byla zalo\u017eena na prediktivn\u00edm modelov\u00e1n\u00ed. P\u0159ed hlasov\u00e1n\u00edm o prodlou\u017een\u00ed nouzov\u00e9ho stavu p\u0159edlo\u017eil \u00daZIS poslanc\u016fm\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zdraveforum.cz\/texty\/Analyticka_zprava_stav_epidemie_predikce_20_3_V2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tuto predikci<\/a>. Tento slide obsahuje mnoho zaj\u00edmav\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u016f, kter\u00e9 je t\u0159eba prozkoumat podrobn\u011bji<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Jednak je pot\u0159eba si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee v\u0161echny modely \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed epidemie byly n\u011bjakou variantou po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 hry zvan\u00e9 SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered). Je to po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e1 hra zalo\u017een\u00e1 na modelu dokonale m\u00edchan\u00e9ho plynu. Lidi jsou modelov\u00e1ni jako kuli\u010dky, kter\u00e9 do sebe n\u00e1hodn\u011b vr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed. V\u00a0modelu nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd prostor, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 m\u011bsta, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u0161koly \u010di fabriky, nikdo nesp\u00ed, nikdo nej\u00ed atd. V\u00a0podstat\u011b je to model jednoduch\u00e9 chemick\u00e9 reakce prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00a0uzav\u0159en\u00e9 n\u00e1dob\u011b s\u00a0plynem. S\u00a0realitou nezn\u00e1m\u00e9ho viru \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00edho se v\u00a0prostoru a \u010dase, ve spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e1 na novou situaci r\u016fzn\u011b reaguje, to nem\u00e1 skoro nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho.<\/li>\n<li>V\u0161echny SIR modely se nav\u00edc chovaj\u00ed podobn\u011b \u2013 vyprodukuj\u00ed jen jednu vlnu n\u00e1kaz. Kdy\u017e ale v\u00a0realit\u011b dojde k\u00a0n\u011bkolika vln\u00e1m, m\u00edsto aby byl model opu\u0161t\u011bn coby falsifikovan\u00fd, za\u010dnou se r\u016fzn\u00ed odborn\u00edci p\u0159elh\u00e1vat o tom, \u017ee se realita odchyluje od modelu v\u00a0d\u016fsledku na\u0161eho \u201e\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed epidemie\u201c.<\/li>\n<li>Z\u00e1sadn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem t\u011bchto model\u016f je tzv. overfitting. Modely maj\u00ed n\u011bkolik knofl\u00edk\u016f (tzv, voln\u00fdch parametr\u016f), kter\u00fdmi lze to\u010dit tak dlouho, a\u017e se model chov\u00e1 tak, jak zadavatel pr\u00e1v\u011b chce. N\u011bjak\u00fd profesor potom ukazuje ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00fdm poslanc\u016fm (kte\u0159\u00ed m\u011bli matiku naposledy na gymn\u00e1ziu) takov\u00fd graf, p\u0159i jeho\u017e tvorb\u011b postupn\u011b to\u010dil knofl\u00edky tak, a\u017e \u010derven\u00e1 k\u0159ivka (model) kr\u00e1sn\u011b kop\u00edrovala \u017elutou (re\u00e1ln\u00e1 data). Uboz\u00ed poslanci nemaj\u00ed \u0161anci pochopit, \u017ee jde o \u010dist\u00fd overfitting, tedy \u017ee parametry modelu auto\u0159i to\u010dili a\u017e pot\u00e9, co re\u00e1ln\u00e1 data znali. Shoda modelu s\u00a0realitou na minul\u00fdch datech ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 v\u016fbec nic o kvalit\u011b predikc\u00ed. Je to jako kdybych v\u00e1m \u0159ekl, jak\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla padla ve sportce minul\u00fd t\u00fdden. Taky byste mi v\u011b\u0159ili, \u017ee odhadnu spr\u00e1vn\u011b, co padne p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden?<\/li>\n<li>V\u0161imn\u011bte si nen\u00e1padn\u00e9ho disclaimeru psan\u00e9ho mal\u00fdm p\u00edsmem dole pod grafem, kter\u00fd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee model nen\u00ed ur\u010den k\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edm. Ov\u0161em naho\u0159e je p\u011bkn\u011b tu\u010dn\u011b vyvedena predikce (\u010desky p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f).<\/li>\n<li>Predikce je to ov\u0161em zcela zjevn\u011b absurdn\u00ed: Model p\u0159edpov\u00eddal, \u017ee po\u010det nov\u011b naka\u017een\u00fdch koncem b\u0159ezna 2021 dos\u00e1hne\u00a0<strong>37 000<\/strong>\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f denn\u011b, tedy asi\u00a0<strong>370<\/strong>\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f na 100 tis\u00edc obyvatel. Do t\u00e9 doby se na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b nikdy nestalo, aby po\u010det nov\u011b potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f n\u00e1kazy covidem p\u0159es\u00e1hl 170 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f na 100 tis\u00edc obyvatel. Predikce byla tedy zcela nere\u00e1ln\u00e1, ale \u00fa\u010del splnila. Vyd\u011b\u0161en\u00ed poslanci schv\u00e1lili dal\u0161\u00ed nouzov\u00fd stav.<\/li>\n<li>Taky je t\u0159eba si v\u0161imnout \u010dern\u00e9 \u0161ipky, kter\u00e1 div\u00e1k\u016fm sugeruje, \u017ee z\u00a0toho grafu n\u011bjak plyne, \u017ee nesoulad p\u0159edpov\u011bdi s\u00a0realitou je snad zp\u016fsoben vlivem p\u0159ijat\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed. Mohu poslucha\u010de ubezpe\u010dit, \u017ee nic takov\u00e9ho neplyne ani z\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00fdch dat, ani z\u00a0modelu. Naopak, jarn\u00ed vlna byla na vrcholu ji\u017e koncem \u00fanora. Tvrd\u00fd lockdown za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed 1. b\u0159ezna na tom nemohl nic m\u011bnit.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Jak\u00e9 z\u00a0toho plyne pou\u010den\u00ed?\u00a0<strong>Nesna\u017eme se predikovat syst\u00e9my, kter\u00fdm nerozum\u00edme, pomoc\u00ed matematick\u00fdch model\u016f<\/strong>. \u0158i\u010fme se daty, a ne naivn\u00edmi po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00fdmi hrami.<\/p>\n<p><em>Kdysi jsem o tom napsal\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/brownstone.org\/articles\/mathematical-models-are-weapons-of-mass-destruction\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>dlouh\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0na<\/em><em>\u00a0o n\u011bco popul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1st\u011bnku, ne\u017e je tahle. Matematick\u00e9mu modelov\u00e1n\u00ed doby covidov\u00e9 jsme se v\u011bnovali mnohokr\u00e1t a na mnoha m\u00edstech. Kdo chce, m\u016f\u017ee se pod\u00edvat na\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dzurnal.cz\/index.php\/2021\/04\/03\/usvit-samanu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>\u00dasvit \u0161aman\u016f<\/em><\/a><em>, pon\u011bkud\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statspol.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Vyhodnocovani_efektu_opatreni_I.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>podr\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00fd koment\u00e1\u0159<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0\u010ce<\/em><em>sk\u00e9 statistick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti o modelech \u00daZISu \u010di\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statspol.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/skoly_BISOP.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>je\u0161t\u011b podr\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed koment\u00e1\u0159<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>o modelech BISOPu.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Velk\u00e9 pou\u010den\u00ed z\u00a0t\u00e9to modelovac\u00ed katastrofy plyne zejm\u00e9na pro problematiku zm\u011bny klimatu, kde d\u011bl\u00e1me stejnou chybu. Budoucnost cel\u00e9 civilizace jsme vsadili na predikci matematick\u00e9ho modelu \u2013 proto\u017ee hypot\u00e9za o tom, \u017ee se klima katastroficky otepluje kv\u016fli lidsk\u00fdm emis\u00edm CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0nen\u00ed nic jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e predikce matematick\u00e9ho modelu. Za covidu byla realita milosrdn\u00e1 a nesmyslnost prediktivn\u00edch model\u016f n\u00e1m uk\u00e1zala v\u00a0horizontu t\u00fddn\u016f. U model\u016f klimatu budeme muset \u010dekat des\u00edtky let, ne\u017e se uk\u00e1\u017ee, \u017ee se katastrofick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi oteplova\u010d\u016f m\u00fdlily.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>St\u00e1le nev\u00edme skoro nic o \u00fa\u010dinnosti mRNA \u201evakc\u00edn\u201c<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Dodnes o skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinnosti mRNA produkt\u016f nev\u00edme skoro nic. V\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 republice jsme vyo\u010dkovali skoro 19 milion\u016f d\u00e1vek covidov\u00fdch \u201evakc\u00edn\u201c, na sv\u011bt\u011b n\u011bkolik miliard. V\u011bt\u0161inu z\u00a0toho tvo\u0159ily experiment\u00e1ln\u00ed genov\u00e9 produkty, kv\u016fli nim\u017e musela CDC dokonce\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2022\/07\/11\/etymologicke-okenko\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">zm\u011bnit definici vakc\u00edny<\/a>, aby se do n\u00ed ve\u0161ly. Je fascinuj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee jsme dodnes nestihli pochopit, co v\u00edme a nev\u00edme o \u00fa\u010dinnosti a bezpe\u010dnosti t\u011bchto produkt\u016f. Poj\u010fme se v\u011bnovat \u00fa\u010dinnosti.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>M\u00e9dia n\u00e1m vtloukala do hlavy, \u017ee mRNA \u201evakc\u00edny\u201c maj\u00ed 95% \u00fa\u010dinnost. Kde se to \u010d\u00edslo vzalo a co znamenalo? Poch\u00e1zelo z\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa2034577\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">randomizovan\u00e9 studie<\/a>, kde v\u00a0obou v\u011btv\u00edch bylo asi 20 tis\u00edc \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f. Sledovala se symptomatick\u00e1 infekce. V\u00a0aktivn\u00ed v\u011btvi onemocn\u011blo 8 lid\u00ed, v\u00a0placebo v\u011btvi 162 lid\u00ed. Tedy vakc\u00edna sn\u00ed\u017eila riziko symptomatick\u00e9 infekce z\u00a00.88 % na 0.04 %, tedy o 0.84 %, ano, o necel\u00e9 jedno procento. To se z\u00a0marketingov\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f ve\u0159ejnosti sd\u011blilo tak, \u017ee 0.84 z 0.88 je p\u0159ece 95 % procent, ne? Ve\u0159ejnost to pochopila tak, \u017ee 95 % o\u010dkovan\u00fdch bude chr\u00e1n\u011bno p\u0159ed infekc\u00ed. To je skoro p\u0159esn\u00fd opak pravdy. V\u0161echny principy EBM \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee takto zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem reportovat sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed rizika je nep\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e9.<\/li>\n<li>Pozd\u011bji\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/378\/bmj.o1731\/rr-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">jsme se dozv\u011bd\u011bli<\/a>, \u017ee Pfizer pou\u017eil pro registra\u010dn\u00ed studii \u00fapln\u011b jinou l\u00e1tku, ne\u017e kterou jsme potom nao\u010dkovali miliardy lid\u00ed po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Klinickou zkou\u0161ku provedli s\u00a0\u010distou, laboratorn\u011b vyrobenou l\u00e1tkou, ale naostro pak o\u010dkovali \u201evakc\u00ednou\u201c vyrobenou pomoc\u00ed bakteri\u00e1ln\u00edch kultur. Takto vyroben\u00e9 \u201evakc\u00edny\u201c jsou kontaminovan\u00e9 bakteri\u00e1ln\u00ed DNA a endotoxiny. Tedy o bezpe\u010dnosti a \u00fa\u010dinnosti mRNA \u201evakc\u00edn\u201c nem\u016f\u017eeme na z\u00e1klad\u011b registra\u010dn\u00ed studie \u0159\u00edct nic, proto\u017ee to byla jin\u00e1 l\u00e1tka.<\/li>\n<li>Registra\u010dn\u00ed studie prob\u011bhla v\u00a0obdob\u00ed wuhansk\u00e9 verze viru, kter\u00fd byl ov\u0161em v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy se za\u010dalo masivn\u011b o\u010dkovat, ji\u017e vytla\u010den jin\u00fdmi variantami. O \u00fa\u010dinnosti proti jin\u00fdm variant\u00e1m jsme tedy tak\u00e9 nev\u011bd\u011bli nic.<\/li>\n<li>Nav\u00edc se b\u011bhem RCT dosti podv\u00e1d\u011blo, o \u010dem\u017e\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/375\/bmj.n2635\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">p\u0159inesl zpr\u00e1vu<\/a>\u00a0British Medical Journal.<\/li>\n<li>Pot\u00e9, co se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee vakc\u00edny nebr\u00e1n\u00ed infekci (l\u00e9to 2021), za\u010dalo se tvrdit, \u017ee vakc\u00edny sice nebr\u00e1n\u00ed infekci a p\u0159enosu, ale br\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9mu pr\u016fb\u011bhu, hospitalizaci a \u00famrt\u00ed. Jen\u017ee pro tohle tvrzen\u00ed neexistovala a neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 evidence, proto\u017ee v\u00a0RCT nebylo zkoum\u00e1no.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>M\u00e1me p\u0159ece ale mnoho pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch dat, tak bychom to m\u011bli v\u011bd\u011bt. M\u00e9dia byla pln\u00e1 zpr\u00e1v o tom, jak um\u00edraj\u00ed hlavn\u011b neo\u010dkovan\u00ed (n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed novin\u00e1\u0159i si st\u011b\u017eovali, \u017ee neum\u00edraj\u00ed dost rychle). My jsme se ale pe\u010dliv\u011b d\u00edvali na data a neust\u00e1le jsme se do\u017eadovali zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00ed \u00fapln\u00fdch datov\u00fdch sad. Nakonec se n\u00e1m to poda\u0159ilo, vznikla\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC12243391\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sv\u011btov\u011b unik\u00e1tn\u00ed studie<\/a>, kter\u00e1 ukazuje mnoho fascinuj\u00edc\u00edch aspekt\u016f cel\u00e9 vakcina\u010dn\u00ed kampan\u011b.<\/p>\n<p><em>V\u00a0t\u00e9to chv\u00edli jsem ve Sn\u011bmovn\u011b v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b zopakoval to, co po\u0159\u00e1d kolem dokola p\u00ed\u0161eme o efektu zdrav\u00e9ho o\u010dkovan\u00e9ho a profeso\u0159i to po\u0159\u00e1d ne a ne pochopit. K\u00a0tomu je pot\u0159eba bu\u010fto obr\u00e1zek, nebo hodn\u011b \u010dasu nebo oboje. Ra\u010dte si to pros\u00edm znovu nastudovat\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2021\/12\/25\/umrti-dle-ockovaciho-statutu-v-roce-2021-data-zdravotnich-pojistoven\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>zde<\/em><\/a><em>,\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2022\/01\/07\/elixir-mladi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>zde<\/em><\/a><em>,\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2024\/03\/04\/efekt-zdraveho-ockovaneho-aneb-co-studie-o-ucinnosti-covidovych-vakcin-neberou-v-uvahu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>tady<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0nebo\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2024\/06\/24\/jak-je-to-s-efektem-zdraveho-ockovaneho\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>tady<\/em><\/a><em>. Z\u00e1jemci se mohou pod\u00edvat i na na\u0161e recenzovan\u00e9 odborn\u00e9 publikace\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/38401782\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>tady<\/em><\/a><em>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s12889-025-23619-x\">tady<\/a>\u00a0nebo\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mp.pl\/paim\/issue\/article\/16634\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>tady<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Posledn\u00ed studie ukazuje, \u017ee je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159\u00edct cokoliv o \u00fa\u010dinnosti vakc\u00edny pouze pozorov\u00e1n\u00edm populace. O\u010dkovan\u00ed (r\u016fzn\u00fdmi d\u00e1vkami) a neo\u010dkovan\u00ed jsou toti\u017e \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00ed lid\u00e9. Ale od roku 2021 se u\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 randomizovan\u00e9 studie ned\u011blaly. Pr\u00e1v\u011b randomizovan\u00e9 studie mohou odhalit skute\u010dnou \u00fa\u010dinnost vakc\u00edn. Pot\u00e9, co jsme nao\u010dkovali miliardy lid\u00ed experiment\u00e1ln\u00ed genovou vakc\u00ednou, st\u00e1le nev\u00edme nic o skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinnosti vakc\u00edny proti klinicky relevantn\u00edm endpoint\u016fm. Nen\u00ed vylou\u010deno, \u017ee \u00fa\u010dinnost byla z\u00e1porn\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p>A pou\u010den\u00ed?\u00a0<strong>Na\u0161e schopnost data shroma\u017e\u010fovat dalece p\u0159es\u00e1hla na\u0161i schopnost spr\u00e1vn\u011b z\u00a0nich usuzovat, predikovat a rozhodovat se.<\/strong>\u00a0St\u00e1le n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 hromada pr\u00e1ce a \u010d\u00edm d\u0159\u00edv se do n\u00ed pust\u00edme, t\u00edm l\u00edp pro n\u00e1s. \u00daZIS kone\u010dn\u011b zve\u0159ejnil podrobn\u00e1 data o \u00famrt\u00edch (zat\u00edm pouze pro \u017eeny), v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny \u00famrt\u00ed. Kone\u010dn\u011b se tedy m\u016f\u017eeme pokusit o zp\u011btn\u00fd odhad skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinnosti vakc\u00edn proti \u00famrt\u00ed s\u00a0covidem. Bylo by dobr\u00e9, aby to kone\u010dn\u011b prob\u00edhalo jinak, ne\u017e \u017ee to budeme d\u011blat my \u2013 parta nad\u0161enc\u016f \u2013 po noc\u00edch a zadarmo.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Dal\u0161\u00ed datov\u00e9 detektivky doby covidov\u00e9<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022 za\u010dala p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b klesat plodnost \u010desk\u00fdch \u017een. Z\u00a0ukazatele 1.83 d\u00edt\u011bte na \u017eenu v\u00a0roce 2021 za\u010dala klesat asi o desetinu za rok, tak\u017ee na konci roku 2025 klesne n\u011bkam k\u00a01.3. Zat\u00edmco se m\u00e9dia a covidist\u00e9 ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9m prostoru p\u0159elh\u00e1vali, jak to jist\u011b nijak nesouvis\u00ed s\u00a0vakc\u00ednami a jak za to m\u016f\u017ee Putin, my jsme vytrvale \u017e\u00e1dali o data. Nakonec jsme data dostali a publikovali jsme\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/09246479251353384\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sv\u011btov\u011b unik\u00e1tn\u00ed studii<\/a>, kter\u00e1 ukazuje, \u017ee \u017eeny o\u010dkovan\u00e9 proti covidu maj\u00ed z\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu asi o t\u0159etinu m\u00e9n\u011b d\u011bt\u00ed, ne\u017e by odpov\u00eddalo jejich zastoupen\u00ed v\u00a0populaci. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, kdyby o\u010dkovan\u00e9 \u017eeny rodily stejn\u011b jako neo\u010dkovan\u00e9, k\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu poklesu plodnosti by nedo\u0161lo. Na\u0161e pr\u00e1ce tedy potvrdila, \u017ee o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0plodnost\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u011b souvis\u00ed (nen\u00ed to hypot\u00e9za \u2013 je to fakt). Velkou ot\u00e1zkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, jestli je tato souvislost kauz\u00e1ln\u00ed, tedy jestli o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b n\u011bjak\u00fdm mechanismem br\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010det\u00ed, nebo jestli je to souvislost pouze behavior\u00e1ln\u00ed \u2013 tedy \u017ee o\u010dkovan\u00e9 \u017eeny z\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu d\u011bti p\u0159estaly cht\u00edt. To je t\u0159eba prozkoumat.<\/p>\n<p><em>O tomto t\u00e9matu jsme ve SMIS napsali des\u00edtky \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f. Jejich skoro kompletn\u00ed seznam i s\u00a0odkazy je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nku\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2025\/01\/09\/virtualni-herodes-z-planety-syri\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Virtu\u00e1ln\u00ed Herodes z\u00a0planety SYRI<\/em><\/a><em>. Dokonce jsme na to ud\u011blali\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/category\/plodnost\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>samostatnou rubriku<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0na<\/em><em>\u00a0str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch SMIS.\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2026\/01\/18\/kviz-pro-demografy-aneb-muze-za-to-putin\/\"><em>Posledn\u00edm p<\/em><\/a><em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2026\/01\/18\/kviz-pro-demografy-aneb-muze-za-to-putin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u0159<\/a><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2026\/01\/18\/kviz-pro-demografy-aneb-muze-za-to-putin\/\"><em>\u00edsp\u011bvkem<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0je<\/em><em>\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nek v\u011bnovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016fm my\u0161lenky \u201em\u016f\u017ee za to Putin\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Dlouho jsme usilovali o data S\u00daKLu ohledn\u011b hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed podez\u0159en\u00ed na ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky. Kdy\u017e se n\u00e1m je poda\u0159ilo z\u00edskat,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2024\/07\/03\/znepokojujici-rozdily-mezi-sarzemi-covidovych-vakcin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">uk\u00e1zali jsme<\/a>, \u017ee po\u010dty hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch podez\u0159en\u00ed na ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky se naprosto z\u00e1sadn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed mezi \u0161ar\u017eemi, a to tak, \u017ee ty \u00fapln\u011b prvn\u00ed \u0161ar\u017ee vakc\u00edn, kter\u00e9 k\u00a0n\u00e1m p\u0159i\u0161ly za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku 2021, m\u011bly naprosto neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b vysok\u00fd po\u010det ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, zat\u00edmco pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0161ar\u017ee u\u017e m\u011bly ten po\u010det jen vysok\u00fd. Tato data ukazuj\u00ed nejsp\u00ed\u0161 na nestabilitu v\u00fdrobn\u00edho procesu a je t\u0159eba zjistit, co se tehdy stalo.<\/p>\n<p>A takto bych mohl pokra\u010dovat je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bkolik hodin.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Co bude d\u00e1l<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Co tedy budeme d\u011blat d\u00e1l? Leckde v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed u\u017e byla posledn\u00ed t\u0159etina rozehr\u00e1na. V\u00a0Americe do\u0161lo ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu, kter\u00e1 byla do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry reakc\u00ed na pokus o zaveden\u00ed covidov\u00e9 totality. Americk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 zdravotnictv\u00ed proch\u00e1z\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a velmi inspirativn\u00ed zm\u011bnou za posledn\u00edch 100 let. Vy\u0161et\u0159uje se v\u00a0Brit\u00e1nii, Austr\u00e1lii, Kanad\u011b, Nov\u00e9m Z\u00e9land\u011b, v\u00a0mnoh\u00fdm dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch, dokonce i v\u00a0N\u011bmecku se za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed h\u00fdbat ledy. Na Slovensku se d\u011bjou v\u011bci. Je nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9, aby na\u0161e zem\u011b z\u016fstala jedin\u00e1, kter\u00e1 do posledn\u00ed t\u0159etiny odm\u00edtne nastoupit. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1da si toho je v\u011bdoma.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00e1me unik\u00e1tn\u00ed mo\u017enost pou\u010dit se z\u00a0t\u00e9to n\u00e1hl\u00e9 a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty soudnosti a na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho ud\u011blat podstatn\u00e9 zm\u011bny<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9m zdravotnictv\u00ed<\/strong>, kde bychom se m\u011bli vr\u00e1tit k\u00a0princip\u016fm EBM, tedy k\u00a0propojen\u00ed \u00fasudku l\u00e9ka\u0159e, svobodn\u00e9 v\u016fle pravdiv\u011b informovan\u00e9ho pacienta a dat z\u00a0kvalitn\u00edch a nezfal\u0161ovan\u00fdch studi\u00ed. Mus\u00edme omezit roli r\u016fzn\u00fdch n\u00e1tlakov\u00fdch organizac\u00ed, jako je \u010cLK, \u010cVS. Je \u010das vystoupit z\u00a0WHO a cel\u00fd zdravotn\u00ed syst\u00e9m radik\u00e1ln\u011b decentralizovat a vr\u00e1tit rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed do rukou o\u0161et\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e9ka\u0159\u016f.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ve \u0161kolstv\u00ed<\/strong>, kde bychom se m\u011bli soust\u0159edit na podporu spr\u00e1vn\u00e9ho usuzov\u00e1n\u00ed, logick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed, kultivovat dialog a zejm\u00e9na u\u010dit pr\u00e1ci s\u00a0daty. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00ed syst\u00e9m zjevn\u011b selhal, nebo\u0165 samostatn\u011b a kriticky mysl\u00edc\u00ed lid\u00e9 tvo\u0159ili b\u011bhem covidov\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty soudnosti ve spole\u010dnosti v\u00fdraznou men\u0161inu.<\/li>\n<li><strong>P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ve v\u011bd\u011b a\u00a0v\u00fdzkumu<\/strong>, kde je t\u0159eba radik\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159etnout toxickou z\u00e1vislost akademick\u00e9ho v\u00fdzkumu na st\u00e1tn\u00edch financ\u00edch. Kdy\u017e se v\u00a0takov\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu st\u00e1t zbl\u00e1zn\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e se ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b st\u00e1v\u00e1 pravideln\u011b \u2013 p\u0159enese se ztr\u00e1ta soudnosti skrze finance okam\u017eit\u011b do v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed. V\u011bdci nejsou blb\u00ed a rychle pochop\u00ed, co cht\u011bj\u00ed zrovna sly\u0161et ti, kte\u0159\u00ed je plat\u00ed. Akademick\u00e1 p\u016fda \u2013 m\u00edsto toho, aby z\u016fstala o\u00e1zou soudnosti, svobody a hled\u00e1n\u00ed pravdy \u2013 se naopak postavila do \u010dela pr\u016fvodu bl\u00e1zn\u016f a poskytovala dobov\u00e9mu \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed punc v\u011bdeckosti a legitimity. Vid\u011bli jsme to v\u00a0minulosti u fa\u0161ismu i komunismu a stejn\u011b se to odehr\u00e1lo za covidismu. A u oteplovac\u00edho \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed je to \u00fapln\u011b stejn\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>D\u00e1le dle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru pot\u0159ebujeme v\u00a0t\u00e9to zemi\u00a0<strong>platformu<\/strong>, v\u00a0r\u00e1mci kter\u00e9 bychom se pokusili pochopit, co se za covidu vlastn\u011b stalo a pro\u010d. Nevol\u00e1m po vy\u0161et\u0159ovac\u00ed komisi, proto\u017ee ty b\u00fdvaj\u00ed skl\u00e1d\u00e1ny podle politick\u00e9ho kl\u00ed\u010de, co\u017e nevede k\u00a0porozum\u011bn\u00ed, ale ke stranick\u00e9mu boji. Asi by bylo rozumn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jmenovat\u00a0<strong>vl\u00e1dn\u00edho zmocn\u011bnce pro porozum\u011bn\u00ed dob\u011b covidov\u00e9<\/strong>\u00a0a nechat ho, a\u0165 platformu sestav\u00ed s\u00e1m.<\/p>\n<p>Porozum\u011bn\u00ed, katarzi a pou\u010den\u00ed toti\u017e dlu\u017e\u00edme<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>tis\u00edc\u016fm lid\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsme b\u011bhem covidu nechali z\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f zem\u0159\u00edt, jejich p\u0159\u00edbuzn\u00fdm a bl\u00edzk\u00fdm,<\/li>\n<li>d\u011btem, kter\u00fdm jsme v\u00fdrazn\u011b naru\u0161ili vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed, spole\u010densk\u00fd \u017eivot i du\u0161evn\u00ed zdrav\u00ed,<\/li>\n<li>des\u00edtk\u00e1m tis\u00edc lid\u00ed, kter\u00fdm jsme po\u0161kodili zdrav\u00ed bezhlavou a nevyb\u00edrav\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky nucenou aplikac\u00ed experiment\u00e1ln\u00ed genov\u00e9 \u201evakc\u00edny\u201c,<\/li>\n<li>ale taky t\u011bm, co m\u011bli cel\u00fdch t\u011bch p\u011bt tragikomick\u00fdch let pravdu, ale do\u010dkali se jen ur\u00e1\u017eek, cenzury, persekuce a pron\u00e1sledov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Mnoz\u00ed z\u00a0nich sed\u00ed v\u00a0tomto s\u00e1le a spole\u010dn\u011b se mnou doufaj\u00ed, \u017ee dne\u0161n\u00edm dnem skute\u010dn\u011b vstupujeme do z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 t\u0159etiny na\u0161eho z\u00e1pasu s\u00a0covidovou ztr\u00e1tou soudnosti. Je\u0161t\u011b po\u0159\u00e1d m\u00e1me \u0161anci aspo\u0148 na rem\u00edzu. Pokud se v\u0161ak ani nepokus\u00edme pochopit, co a pro\u010d se stalo, bude to drtiv\u00e1 prohra. A bude se opakovat v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1pasech, nejd\u0159\u00edv v\u00a0utk\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0mu\u017estvem oteplova\u010d\u016f, kter\u00e9 u\u017e se rozcvi\u010duje v \u0161atn\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n<p>D\u011bkuju v\u00e1m za pozornost, bu\u010fte zdrav\u00ed a vesel\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><em>Dom\u016f jsem dorazil ve\u010der, t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e \u0161ly d\u011bti sp\u00e1t. Nebylo by rozumn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u016fstat doma a pov\u00eddat si s\u00a0nima? M\u00e1m pocit, \u017ee u\u017e p\u011bt let \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m v\u0161ude po\u0159\u00e1d to sam\u00e9. Ukazuju data, vysv\u011btluju, dokazuju, po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1m. Poslouchaj\u00ed to po\u0159\u00e1d ti sam\u00ed lid\u00e9. A v\u00a0novin\u00e1ch si dal\u0161\u00ed den zase p\u0159e\u010dtu, \u017ee si v\u00a0parlamentu dali dostaven\u00ed\u010dko dezinform\u00e1to\u0159i. M\u00e1 to v\u016fbec n\u011bjak\u00fd smysl?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/smis-lab.cz\/2026\/01\/27\/na-zacatku-posledni-tretiny-moje-vystoupeni-v-poslanecke-snemovne-26-ledna-2026\/\">Tom\u00e1\u0161 F\u00fcrst<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Norm\u00e1ln\u011b to ned\u011bl\u00e1m, ale tentokr\u00e1t jsem si to vystoupen\u00ed p\u0159edem napsal. Byla to chyba, proto\u017ee&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98899,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[23,2657,844],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98898"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98898"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98898\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98899"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98898"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98898"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98898"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}