{"id":98796,"date":"2026-02-06T00:34:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T23:34:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98796"},"modified":"2026-02-05T18:18:30","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T17:18:30","slug":"pierre-duval-jaky-by-byl-svet-bez-smlouvy-start-mezi-ruskem-a-spojenymi-staty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/06\/pierre-duval-jaky-by-byl-svet-bez-smlouvy-start-mezi-ruskem-a-spojenymi-staty\/","title":{"rendered":"Pierre Duval: Jak\u00fd by byl sv\u011bt bez smlouvy START mezi Ruskem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm nereagoval na n\u00e1vrh Moskvy znovu se p\u0159ipojit k omezen\u00edm Smlouvy o kontrole zbrojen\u00ed (START) na dal\u0161\u00ed rok.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00edm dnem platnosti Smlouvy o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed a omezen\u00ed strategick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed (START, neboli START III) je 4. \u00fanora 2026. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nereagovaly na n\u00e1vrh prezidenta Vladimira Putina ze z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025, aby se rok po vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti smlouvy dr\u017eely kvantitativn\u00edch omezen\u00ed hlavic a nosi\u010d\u016f zbran\u00ed. Mo\u017enost form\u00e1ln\u00edho prodlou\u017een\u00ed smlouvy, stejn\u011b jako v roce 2021, nebyla vznesena. Pokud tedy Washington nebude n\u00e1sledovat jeho p\u0159\u00edklad, ji\u017e 5. \u00fanora z\u016fstane posledn\u00ed bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed dokument upravuj\u00edc\u00ed vztahy mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a Ruskem v oblasti strategick\u00e9 stability mrtvou literou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Rjabkov, kter\u00fd byl v \u010c\u00edn\u011b na konzultac\u00edch o strategick\u00e9 stabilit\u011b, 3. \u00fanora prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Moskva nem\u00e1 v \u00famyslu p\u0159edkl\u00e1dat Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm novou \u017e\u00e1dost v p\u0159edve\u010der smlouvy START. Nazna\u010dil tak\u00e9, \u017ee ml\u010den\u00ed Washingtonu je \u201etak\u00e9 odpov\u011bd\u00ed\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin\u016fv mluv\u010d\u00ed Dmitrij Peskov t\u00e9ho\u017e dne zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee \u201edoslova za p\u00e1r dn\u00ed bude sv\u011bt pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i nad\u00e1le v nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s t\u00edm, jak byl doposud\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eJej\u00ed platnost vypr\u0161\u00ed,\u201c\u00a0<\/span>odpov\u011bd\u011bl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Trump \u00a0na ot\u00e1zku\u00a0 report\u00e9r\u016f\u00a0<\/span>New York Times<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0ohledn\u011b bezprost\u0159edn\u00edho vypr\u0161en\u00ed smlouvy START v lednov\u00e9m rozhovoru. Dodal v\u0161ak: \u201eBylo by dobr\u00e9, kdyby se k n\u00ed [kontrole zbrojen\u00ed] p\u0159ipojily i dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

S bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se koncem kontroly jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a Ruskem se r\u00fdsuj\u00ed z\u00e1vody ve zbrojen\u00ed. Poprv\u00e9 od za\u010d\u00e1tku 70. let nebudou existovat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 pr\u00e1vn\u011b z\u00e1vazn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed strategick\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a Ruska. Tyto dva st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 dohromady vlastn\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, se ocitnou bez vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch kontrol a protivah. D\u016fsledky sahaj\u00ed daleko za hranice Washingtonu a Moskvy. Zasa\u017eena bude zejm\u00e9na Evropa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dohoda New START byla posledn\u00edm pil\u00ed\u0159em architektury kontroly zbrojen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se po desetilet\u00ed rozv\u00edjela mezi dv\u011bma nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi jadern\u00fdmi mocnostmi na\u0161\u00ed doby. Tato smlouva, iniciovan\u00e1 v roce 1982 americk\u00fdm prezidentem Ronaldem Reaganem a podepsen\u00e1 v l\u00e9t\u011b 1991 jeho n\u00e1stupcem Georgem Bushem a Michailem Gorba\u010dovem, omezila ka\u017edou zemi na 1 550 strategick\u00fdch hlavic. Ztr\u00e1ta vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 kontroly tuto situaci d\u00e1le zhor\u0161uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva a Washington si v\u017edy vym\u011b\u0148ovaly data a prov\u00e1d\u011bly vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 inspekce. P\u0159esto\u017ee Rusko v roce 2023 pozastavilo svou \u00fa\u010dast a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty reagovaly, ob\u011b strany dosud neform\u00e1ln\u011b respektovaly centr\u00e1ln\u00ed limity. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento faktick\u00fd z\u00e1vazek uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee smlouva m\u00e1 v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b stabiliza\u010dn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek, a to i b\u011bhem hlubok\u00fdch politick\u00fdch kriz\u00ed, jako byla v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee platnost smlouvy o kontrole zbrojen\u00ed se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti, posledn\u00ed obecn\u011b uzn\u00e1van\u00fd r\u00e1mec p\u0159estane platit. Toto je jasn\u00fd bod zlomu. Poprv\u00e9 po mnoha desetilet\u00edch se nach\u00e1z\u00edme bez smlouvy omezuj\u00edc\u00ed strategick\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 zbran\u011b a bez jak\u00fdchkoli jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o t\u00e9to ot\u00e1zce. To je nepochybn\u011b destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed faktor. Rusko a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty budou sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed zakl\u00e1dat na nejhor\u0161\u00edm mo\u017en\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i pro budoucnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bez dohodnut\u00fdch limit\u016f a transparentnosti bude strategick\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed op\u011bt charakterizov\u00e1no ned\u016fv\u011brou a t\u011bmi nejpesimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159edpoklady. U\u017e jen to zvy\u0161uje riziko chybn\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f. Existuje riziko nov\u00e9 dynamiky v z\u00e1vodech v jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Evropu je to obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj, proto\u017ee se geograficky nach\u00e1z\u00ed mezi dv\u011bma nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi jadern\u00fdmi mocnostmi, je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO a z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159edstavuje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u011bji\u0161t\u011b eskalace. Ztr\u00e1ta vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 kontroly tuto situaci d\u00e1le zhor\u0161uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inspekce a sd\u00edlen\u00ed dat byly stejn\u011b pozastaveny na roky, ale nyn\u00ed zmiz\u00ed i form\u00e1ln\u00ed horn\u00ed limity. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Rusko z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejen bez inspekc\u00ed a sd\u00edlen\u00ed dat, ale tak\u00e9 bez jak\u00fdchkoli strop\u016f omezuj\u00edc\u00edch po\u010det nasazen\u00fdch hlavic a strategick\u00fdch nosi\u010d\u016f. I kdy\u017e st\u00e1le existuj\u00ed nouzov\u00e9 kan\u00e1ly, jako jsou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed centra pro sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00fdch rizik a hork\u00e9 linky, jsou nedostate\u010dn\u00e9. Nedostatek kontaktu ve strategick\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch nevyhnuteln\u011b vede k dal\u0161\u00ed erozi a destabilizaci bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch vztah\u016f a tak\u00e9 k rostouc\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pierre Duval<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm nereagoval na n\u00e1vrh Moskvy znovu se p\u0159ipojit k omezen\u00edm Smlouvy o kontrole zbrojen\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98797,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,4505,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98796"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98796\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}