{"id":98792,"date":"2026-02-06T00:31:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T23:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98792"},"modified":"2026-02-05T18:13:45","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T17:13:45","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-co-brani-trumpovi-v-invazi-do-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/06\/alexandre-lemoine-co-brani-trumpovi-v-invazi-do-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Co br\u00e1n\u00ed Trumpovi v invazi do \u00cdr\u00e1nu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech \u017eije sv\u011bt v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Letadlov\u00e9 lod\u011b, strategick\u00e9 letectvo, ultim\u00e1ta a agresivn\u00ed r\u00e9torika vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed dojem, \u017ee vojensk\u00fd \u00fader je jen ot\u00e1zkou \u010dasu. Pro\u010d se tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nevyhnuteln\u00fd, op\u011bt odkl\u00e1d\u00e1 a jak\u00e9 faktory ve skute\u010dnosti brzd\u00ed eskalaci?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u017e do sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krize se Donald Trump choval podle zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho a obecn\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9ho vzoru. Postupn\u011b zvy\u0161oval tlak na sv\u00e9 protivn\u00edky a konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed regiony \u2013 Evropu, Latinskou Ameriku, zem\u011b Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu \u2013 poka\u017ed\u00e9 s p\u0159edpokladem, \u017ee protivn\u00edk bude izolov\u00e1n, reakce omezen\u00e1 a n\u00e1sledky zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e9. Tato metoda umo\u017enila Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm zv\u00fd\u0161it s\u00e1zky, ani\u017e by p\u0159ekro\u010dily pr\u00e1h glob\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n se v\u0161ak stal prvn\u00edm bodem, kde tato logika p\u0159estala fungovat. V \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 krizi Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ne\u010del\u00ed izolovan\u00e9mu protivn\u00edkovi, ale situaci, kdy za t\u00edmto region\u00e1ln\u00edm st\u00e1tem objektivn\u011b stoj\u00ed dv\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti, Rusko a \u010c\u00edna.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejde o form\u00e1ln\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed ani ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky, ale o sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f. Ztr\u00e1ta \u00cdr\u00e1nu jako geopolitick\u00e9ho a dopravn\u00edho uzlu pro Eurasii by pro Moskvu a Peking vytvo\u0159ila nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto \u00fatok proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu automaticky vymyk\u00e1 r\u00e1mec region\u00e1ln\u00ed logiky a st\u00e1v\u00e1 se z\u00e1sahem do glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy sil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu s aktivn\u00edm zapojen\u00edm Ruska a \u010c\u00edny by nebyla ani rychl\u00e1, ani levn\u00e1, ani lok\u00e1ln\u00ed a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm by byla nekontrolovateln\u00e1. V situaci, kdy st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nejsou p\u0159ipraveny nechat se zat\u00e1hnout do konfliktu, by se cena chyby pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty stala extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysokou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Invaze do \u00cdr\u00e1nu by mohla v\u00e9st k zna\u010dn\u00e9mu po\u0161kozen\u00ed reputace americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa. Arm\u00e1da Pentagonu by s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed \u010delila v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 reakci a obyvatel B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu si je toho dob\u0159e v\u011bdom.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady taj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy. Doposud nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda republika vlastn\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex zem\u011b je zalo\u017een na sov\u011btsk\u00fdch konstrukc\u00edch a neust\u00e1le se modernizuje.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump si p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed rizik invaze do \u00cdr\u00e1nu uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee by vedl v\u00e1lku proti vojensky vysp\u011bl\u00e9mu st\u00e1tu. \u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed Venezuela ani Gr\u00f3nsko. Tato zem\u011b m\u00e1 zdroje k odporu. Nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce by prob\u00edhaly na jej\u00edm vlastn\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed, co\u017e by \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly postavilo do v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozice.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n m\u00e1 zna\u010dnou taktickou v\u00fdhodu, podobnou obt\u00ed\u017e\u00edm, s nimi\u017e se americk\u00e9 jednotky pot\u00fdkaly b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu: neust\u00e1l\u00e9 \u00fatoky, sabot\u00e1\u017ee, guerillov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Poradce \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce pro politick\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti Al\u00ed \u0160amch\u00e1n\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na republiku by se odpov\u011b\u010f zam\u011b\u0159ila na Izrael. Podle \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f jsou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Izrael spojenci a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fatoku by izraelsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da Ameri\u010dan\u016fm pomohla.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a \u00cdr\u00e1n vedou \u201ev\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c ohledn\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu, \u0159ekl prezident Donald Trump novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm na palub\u011b sv\u00e9ho letadla ve\u010der 31. ledna v prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 bylo n\u00e1sledn\u011b zve\u0159ejn\u011bno na kan\u00e1lu B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu na YouTube. Americk\u00fd v\u016fdce neuvedl m\u00edsto kon\u00e1n\u00ed sch\u016fzky ani jej\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edky, ale dodal, \u017ee douf\u00e1 v \u201ep\u0159ijatelnou\u201c smlouvu, kter\u00e1 by Teher\u00e1nu umo\u017enila opustit jeho jadern\u00fd program. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed zazn\u011bla uprost\u0159ed nasazen\u00ed americk\u00fdch sil zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch na \u00cdr\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jsme sv\u011bdky paradoxn\u00ed situace: \u010d\u00edm hlasit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozby, t\u00edm opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u010diny. Ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 projevy s\u00edly a zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, mediace a kompromisy v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159ujeme k dlouh\u00e9mu divadlu zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je zakr\u00fdt podstatu, a to snahu v\u0161ech stran vyhnout se p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 hranice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech \u017eije sv\u011bt v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Letadlov\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98793,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,452,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98792"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98792\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}