{"id":98736,"date":"2026-02-05T07:59:54","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T06:59:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98736"},"modified":"2026-02-05T07:59:54","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T06:59:54","slug":"lucas-dumont-proc-je-vyprseni-platnosti-jaderne-smlouvy-start-dulezite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/05\/lucas-dumont-proc-je-vyprseni-platnosti-jaderne-smlouvy-start-dulezite\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Dumont: Pro\u010d je vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti jadern\u00e9 smlouvy START d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Nov\u00e1 smlouva o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed strategick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, b\u011b\u017en\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako New START, p\u0159edstavuje z\u00e1kladn\u00ed k\u00e1men modern\u00ed kontroly jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed mezi Ruskem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Smlouva, kter\u00e1 byla podeps\u00e1na v dubnu 2010 a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/armscontrolcenter.org\/fact-sheet-the-new-start-treaty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener\">vstoupila<\/a>\u00a0v platnost v \u00fanoru 2011, stanovila limity pro po\u010det rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch hlavic a nosi\u010d\u016f pro ob\u011b zem\u011b. Po v\u00edce ne\u017e deset let poskytovala jedin\u00fd ov\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fd r\u00e1mec pro monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed a kontrolu dvou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch jadern\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f na sv\u011bt\u011b, \u010d\u00edm\u017e p\u0159isp\u00edvala k glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilit\u011b. S bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se koncem platnosti smlouvy se v\u0161ak st\u00e1le nal\u00e9hav\u011bji objevuj\u00ed ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b jej\u00edho v\u00fdznamu a mo\u017en\u00e9ho dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nov\u00e1 smlouva START nen\u00ed pouhou diplomatickou formalitou. V z\u00e1sad\u011b stanov\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed: ka\u017ed\u00e1 zem\u011b sm\u00ed m\u00edt rozm\u00edst\u011bno nejv\u00fd\u0161e 1 550 jadern\u00fdch hlavic, kter\u00e9 mohou b\u00fdt neseny maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 700\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cisac.fsi.stanford.edu\/news\/new-starts-final-year-what-next\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener\">rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdmi<\/a>\u00a0raketami a bombard\u00e9ry. Smlouva tak\u00e9 ukl\u00e1d\u00e1 podrobn\u00e1 ov\u011b\u0159ovac\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b inspekc\u00ed na m\u00edst\u011b, v\u00fdm\u011bny \u00fadaj\u016f a oznamov\u00e1n\u00ed pohyb\u016f. Tyto mechanismy podporuj\u00ed transparentnost, sni\u017euj\u00ed riziko chybn\u00fdch odhad\u016f a poskytuj\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b v\u010dasn\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm jadern\u00fdm zbrojen\u00edm. Existence t\u011bchto pravidel v minulosti pomohla zm\u00edrnit nap\u011bt\u00ed a udr\u017eet k\u0159ehkou rovnov\u00e1hu v obdob\u00edch geopolitick\u00e9 nejistoty.<\/p>\n<p>Pro\u010d je jej\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9? Bez nov\u00e9 smlouvy START by ov\u011b\u0159ovac\u00ed a komunika\u010dn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly mezi Washingtonem a Moskvou prakticky zmizely. Analytici varuj\u00ed, \u017ee absence t\u011bchto opat\u0159en\u00ed by mohla zv\u00fd\u0161it nejistotu, prohloubit podez\u0159en\u00ed a podn\u00edtit ob\u011b zem\u011b k roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nebo modernizaci sv\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00fd by eskaloval nap\u011bt\u00ed. V praxi by vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti odstranilo jedin\u00e9 pr\u00e1vn\u011b z\u00e1vazn\u00e9 omezen\u00ed rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch hlavic, co\u017e by mohlo vyvolat nov\u00fd z\u00e1vod ve zbrojen\u00ed p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00e9ru studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n<p>Geopolitick\u00e9 s\u00e1zky jsou stejn\u011b vysok\u00e9. Smlouva se net\u00fdk\u00e1 pouze USA a Ruska; ovliv\u0148uje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dynamiku, v\u010detn\u011b politiky \u010c\u00edny, Indie a dal\u0161\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f s jadern\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem. Rozpad re\u017eimu kontroly zbran\u00ed by mohl povzbudit jin\u00e9 n\u00e1rody k agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm jadern\u00fdm program\u016fm, proto\u017ee by se domn\u00edvaly, \u017ee omezen\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch arzen\u00e1l\u016f na sv\u011bt\u011b sl\u00e1bnou. Krom\u011b toho by se spojenci Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v Evrop\u011b a Asii mohli c\u00edtit nuceni upravit sv\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 postoje, co\u017e by mohlo znovu rozn\u00edtit region\u00e1ln\u00ed zbrojn\u00ed z\u00e1vody.<\/p>\n<p>Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o prodlou\u017een\u00ed nebo nahrazen\u00ed nov\u00e9 smlouvy START\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/new-start-treaty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener\">pokra\u010duj\u00ed<\/a>, ale \u010del\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00edm a politick\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m. Nap\u0159\u00edklad USA vyj\u00e1d\u0159ily obavy ohledn\u011b \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch jadern\u00fdch kapacit Ruska, v\u010detn\u011b taktick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 se smlouva nevztahuje, zat\u00edmco Moskva vyj\u00e1d\u0159ila st\u00ed\u017enosti ohledn\u011b domn\u011bl\u00e9ho poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed dohody ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Politick\u00e9 zm\u011bny v obou zem\u00edch \u2013 od debat v Kongresu po zm\u011bny ve veden\u00ed \u2013 d\u00e1le komplikuj\u00ed cestu k v\u010dasn\u00e9mu obnoven\u00ed smlouvy. Mezit\u00edm ob\u011b strany pokra\u010duj\u00ed v modernizaci jadern\u00fdch sil, co\u017e je trend, kter\u00fd podtrhuje strategickou nal\u00e9havost zachov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9 formy z\u00e1vazn\u00e9 dohody.<\/p>\n<p>Odborn\u00edci tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee prodlou\u017een\u00ed smlouvy je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed nejen pro omezen\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 pro pos\u00edlen\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti. I v obdob\u00edch geopolitick\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed \u2013 jako jsou konflikty na Ukrajin\u011b nebo v S\u00fdrii \u2013 fungovala smlouva New START jako stabiliza\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroj, kter\u00fd poskytoval r\u00e1mec pro dialog a ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed a sni\u017eoval tak pravd\u011bpodobnost eskalace nedorozum\u011bn\u00ed do konfliktu. Bez n\u00ed by se krize mohly zhor\u0161ovat nejistotou ohledn\u011b schopnost\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9 ze stran, co\u017e by mohlo zkr\u00e1tit lh\u016fty pro rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed v situac\u00edch s vysok\u00fdmi s\u00e1zkami.<\/p>\n<p>A\u010dkoli se nov\u00e1 smlouva START zam\u011b\u0159uje na strategick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, jej\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed dopad se vztahuje na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed architekturu kontroly zbran\u00ed. Smlouva slou\u017eila jako model pro re\u017eimy ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed, inspek\u010dn\u00ed protokoly a kooperativn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 podporuj\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u00e1mce. Jej\u00ed vypr\u0161en\u00ed by mohlo podkopat mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru v kontrolu zbran\u00ed a oslabit z\u00e1klady budouc\u00edch dohod t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed, hypersonick\u00fdch raket nebo pokro\u010dil\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch nosi\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed odborn\u00edci tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee i do\u010dasn\u00e9 pozastaven\u00ed smlouvy by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/new-start-arms-control-treaty-extend-it-go-more-or-let-it-lapse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener\">mohlo<\/a>\u00a0v\u00e9st k destabilizaci. Nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed zbran\u00ed bez ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed zvy\u0161uje riziko chybn\u00fdch odhad\u016f, zejm\u00e9na v napjat\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed, jako je pobaltsk\u00fd region, Arktida nebo v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropa. Vojensk\u00ed pl\u00e1nova\u010di se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na p\u0159esn\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace o rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch hlavic\u00edch a p\u0159ipravenosti raket; bez ov\u011b\u0159ovac\u00edch mechanism\u016f smlouvy se prostor pro chyby zu\u017euje. Tato nejistota by mohla ovlivnit rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed v krizov\u00fdch situac\u00edch a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it pravd\u011bpodobnost nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9 interpretace a ne\u00famysln\u00e9 eskalace.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159esto existuj\u00ed d\u016fvody k optimismu. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 rozhovory mezi p\u0159edstaviteli USA a Ruska nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee ob\u011b strany uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam prodlou\u017een\u00ed smlouvy New START, a to i p\u0159es obecn\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed. Tv\u016frci politiky si st\u00e1le v\u00edce uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee kontrola zbran\u00ed nen\u00ed luxus, ale praktick\u00e1 nutnost pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost. Debata se ji\u017e net\u00fdk\u00e1 pouze omezen\u00ed zbran\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 udr\u017een\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti a stability, kter\u00e9 umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed fungov\u00e1n\u00ed diplomacie ve sv\u011bt\u011b rostouc\u00ed jadern\u00e9 komplexnosti.<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee smlouva New START je mnohem v\u00edce ne\u017e jen reliktem minul\u00e9 diplomacie \u2013 je z\u00e1kladem stability jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v 21. stolet\u00ed. Jej\u00ed vypr\u0161en\u00ed by odstranilo pr\u00e1vn\u011b z\u00e1vazn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed, zv\u00fd\u0161ilo nejistotu a hrozilo by obnoven\u00edm strategick\u00e9ho zbrojn\u00edho z\u00e1vodu s glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi dopady. Zat\u00edmco vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 USA a Ruska se pohybuj\u00ed ve slo\u017eit\u00e9m geopolitick\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed, \u010das na udr\u017een\u00ed jedin\u00e9ho ov\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9ho r\u00e1mce kontroluj\u00edc\u00edho nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jadern\u00e9 arzen\u00e1ly na sv\u011bt\u011b se kr\u00e1t\u00ed. Ne\u010dinnost by nejen destabilizovala bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed vztahy, ale mohla by se odrazit i na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm \u0159\u00e1du a ovlivnit bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed kalkulace mnoha jadern\u00fdch i nejadern\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. V obdob\u00ed rychl\u00fdch technologick\u00fdch zm\u011bn a obnoven\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 sout\u011b\u017ee z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00e1 smlouva START kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem pro zachov\u00e1n\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti \u2013 a jej\u00ed obnoven\u00ed je nezbytn\u00e9, aby se sv\u011bt nevr\u00e1til do \u00e9ry nekontrolovan\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 nejistoty.<\/p>\n<div class=\"podcarou\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/orientalreview.su\/2026\/02\/03\/why-does-the-start-nuclear-treaty-expiration-matter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener\">Why Does The START Nuclear Treaty Expiration Matter?<\/a> vy\u0161el 3.2.2026 na orientalreview.su<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nov\u00e1 smlouva o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed strategick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, b\u011b\u017en\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako New START, p\u0159edstavuje z\u00e1kladn\u00ed k\u00e1men modern\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98737,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,9603,4505],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98736"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}