{"id":98620,"date":"2026-02-04T00:35:54","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T23:35:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98620"},"modified":"2026-02-03T17:19:47","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T16:19:47","slug":"larry-johnson-vojenska-realita-valky-s-iranem-a-konec-aliance-nejista-budoucnost-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/04\/larry-johnson-vojenska-realita-valky-s-iranem-a-konec-aliance-nejista-budoucnost-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry Johnson: Vojensk\u00e1 realita v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a konec aliance? Nejist\u00e1 budoucnost NATO"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nevyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky jsou b\u011b\u017en\u00e9. Je tragick\u00e9, \u017ee na\u0161e vl\u00e1da vede preventivn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, zn\u00e1m\u00e9 tak\u00e9 jako agrese, ani\u017e by si americk\u00fd lid st\u011b\u017eoval. Bohu\u017eel jsme si zvykli \u017e\u00edt s nez\u00e1konn\u00fdm pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm s\u00edly ze strany vl\u00e1dy. Abychom mohli rozv\u00edjet skute\u010dn\u011b svobodnou spole\u010dnost, mus\u00edme ot\u00e1zku pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly pochopit a odm\u00edtnout.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V poutav\u00e9 epizod\u011b po\u0159adu \u201eJudging Freedom\u201c z 2. \u00fanora 2026 soudce Andrew Napolitano podrobn\u011b hovo\u0159il s b\u00fdval\u00fdm analytikem CIA Larrym Johnsonem o vysoce nestabiln\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 situaci. Diskuse se zam\u011b\u0159ila na nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem, ot\u00e1zku mo\u017en\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho \u00faderu za prezidenta Trumpa a z toho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed d\u016fsledky pro NATO a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d. Johnson vykreslil st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00fd, m\u00edsty bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00fd obraz: USA st\u00e1le v\u00edce dosahuj\u00ed sv\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch a ekonomick\u00fdch limit\u016f, zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 podporovan\u00fd Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou \u2013 se st\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm protivn\u00edkem. Konverzace se dotkla tak\u00e9 prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho \u00fasil\u00ed o zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu, spole\u010dn\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch cvi\u010den\u00ed a struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch slabin z\u00e1padn\u00edch alianc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Larry Johnson: Konec aliance? Nejist\u00e1 budoucnost NATO\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-lTPa-a9Ygc?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Napolitano o Trumpovi a \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Napolitano za\u010dal ot\u00e1zkou, zda Trump mo\u017en\u00e1 zva\u017euje \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n, aby odvedl pozornost od dom\u00e1c\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f. Johnson to r\u00e1zn\u011b pop\u0159el: takov\u00fd krok by byl sebedestruktivn\u00ed \u2013 \u201ejako by si zap\u00e1lil vlastn\u00ed vlasy\u201c. Strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 Pentagonu dali Trumpovi a jeho t\u00fdmu jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by byla katastrofou.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vojensk\u00e1 realita v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson p\u0159irovnal situaci k ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e9 Armad\u011b a zd\u016fraznil technick\u00e9 a logistick\u00e9 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 lod\u011b by musely z\u016fstat alespo\u0148 1 000 mil (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1 609 km) od pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, proto\u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 drony maj\u00ed dolet 1 000 a\u017e 2 000 mil (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3 219 km).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n vlastn\u00ed hypersonick\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u0159ely schopn\u00e9 zas\u00e1hnout letadlov\u00e9 lod\u011b.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">St\u0159ely s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu Tomahawk z takov\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti sotva dos\u00e1hnou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pevniny.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed odpalovac\u00ed bu\u0148ky (VLS) doprovodn\u00fdch plavidel jsou po n\u011bkolika salv\u00e1ch pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9; p\u0159eb\u00edjen\u00ed je mo\u017en\u00e9 pouze v p\u0159\u00edstavu pomoc\u00ed je\u0159\u00e1b\u016f.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Bojov\u00e1 skupina letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed mohla intenzivn\u011b bojovat maxim\u00e1ln\u011b dva a\u017e t\u0159i dny, ne\u017e se musela st\u00e1hnout.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl odvetit roji dron\u016f a raket v rozsahu, kter\u00fd daleko p\u0159evy\u0161uje \u00fatoky H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sign\u00e1ly z Pentagonu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson pouk\u00e1zal na to, \u017ee zat\u00edmco ministr obrany Pete Hegseth sice v\u0161echno schvaluje, skute\u010dn\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed pl\u00e1nova\u010di vys\u00edlaj\u00ed realistick\u00e1 varov\u00e1n\u00ed. Vod\u00edtka lze nal\u00e9zt v knize p\u0159\u00edkaz\u016f ministra obrany (SDOB) i v nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch ukazatel\u00edch \u2013 jako je absence pozdn\u00edch objedn\u00e1vek pizzy v Pentagonu. Z\u00e1v\u011br:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd okam\u017eit\u00fd \u00fatok nebyl pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pozad\u00ed: Od zm\u011bny re\u017eimu k hrozb\u00e1m<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson zrekonstruoval pozad\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dne 28. prosince 2025 zah\u00e1jila CIA tajnou operaci. Ekonomick\u00fd tlak, zinscenovan\u00e9 protesty, infiltrace a eskalace n\u00e1sil\u00ed m\u011bly v\u00e9st k p\u00e1du re\u017eimu do poloviny ledna 2026. Ministr financ\u00ed Scott Bessent ekonomick\u00fd \u00fatok potvrdil.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 s podporou Ruska a \u010c\u00edny \u2013 v\u0161ak koordinuj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 Starlink brzy vypnul. To vedlo k p\u0159echodu k druh\u00e9 f\u00e1zi: vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed nasazen\u00ed letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed v Arabsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed st\u00edha\u010dek F-35.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jasn\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 linie \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n reagoval jasn\u00fdm poselstv\u00edm:<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed omezen\u00e9 \u00fadery jako b\u011bhem 12denn\u00ed v\u00e1lky v roce 2025. M\u00edsto toho by n\u00e1sledovala tot\u00e1ln\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka \u2013 s \u00fatoky na v\u0161echny americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v regionu, na Izrael a uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kter\u00fdm proch\u00e1z\u00ed zhruba 20 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 p\u0159epravy ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky by byly katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed: exploze cen ropy, extr\u00e9mn\u00ed volatilita zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra a chaos na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch. Trumpova obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b jen zv\u00fd\u0161ila nez\u00e1vislost Pekingu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by spustila glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi \u2013 p\u0159esn\u011b to si Trump, vzhledem k klesaj\u00edc\u00ed popularit\u011b a volebn\u00edm por\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m republik\u00e1n\u016f, jako byla ztr\u00e1ta dlouho dr\u017een\u00e9ho k\u0159esla v Texasu, nemohl dovolit. V z\u00e1kulis\u00ed Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Rusko a \u010c\u00edna prosazovaly deeskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdo je agresor?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd Ameri\u010dan neutrp\u011bl od \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u017e\u00e1dnou \u00fajmu. \u00cdr\u00e1n nikdy neprovedl teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti civilist\u016fm, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e terorismus je definov\u00e1n jako \u00fatok na nebojovn\u00edky z politick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">M\u00edsto toho to byly USA, kdo jednal agresivn\u011b:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Podpora Sadd\u00e1movy agresivn\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu od roku 1980<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Dod\u00e1vka chemick\u00fdch prekurzor\u016f pro yperit, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla za n\u00e1sledek stovky tis\u00edc \u00famrt\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Podpora teroristick\u00e9 skupiny MEK, kter\u00e1 zavra\u017edila \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u011bdce<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kritika v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 r\u00e9toriky<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Video Lindseyho Grahama (\u201eSrazte \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 jsou slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy d\u0159\u00edv!\u201c) Johnson ozna\u010dil za nerealistick\u00e9. USA nedok\u00e1\u017eou svrhnout Teher\u00e1n, tvrdil. \u00cdr\u00e1n je vojensky na hony vzd\u00e1len\u00fd od H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed jako jedin\u00ed vyhnali americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo z Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj a diplomatick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Izraelsk\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery v ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b poru\u0161uj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je v Istanbulu pl\u00e1nov\u00e1na sch\u016fzka \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed se z\u00e1stupcem USA \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdchodisko pro Trumpa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr vydal d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed: V\u00e1lka by zachv\u00e1tila cel\u00fd region. \u00cdr\u00e1n se z dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lky pou\u010dil, byl p\u0159ipraven, ale v\u00e1lku necht\u011bl.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n, Rusko a \u010c\u00edna<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Od roku 2019 po\u0159\u00e1daj\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n, Rusko a \u010c\u00edna ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b spole\u010dn\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed v Arabsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i, kter\u00e1 jsou pl\u00e1nov\u00e1na na dlouhodob\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 18 a\u017e 24 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. To signalizuje, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed izolov\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump odstoupil od JCPOA. Nov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed by mohla v\u00e9st k omezen\u00ed obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu v\u00fdm\u011bnou za \u00fapln\u00e9 zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed. Rusko a \u010c\u00edna by ji\u017e nov\u00e9 sankce nepodporovaly. Balistick\u00e9 rakety a podpora Hizball\u00e1hu, Ham\u00e1su a podobn\u00fdch skupin by pro Teher\u00e1n z\u016fstaly tabu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">NATO, Ukrajina a \u010derven\u00e9 linie<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud jde o NATO, Johnson prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee je iluz\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee Rusko bude n\u011bkdy tolerovat zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vojska \u2013 zejm\u00e9na americk\u00e1 \u2013 na Ukrajin\u011b. To byla absolutn\u00ed \u010derven\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra a jeden z hlavn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Od roku 1995 se NATO roz\u0161i\u0159uje sm\u011brem na v\u00fdchod. Ukrajina, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed \u010dlenem NATO, je d\u011bji\u0161t\u011bm v\u00edce cvi\u010den\u00ed USA a NATO ne\u017e 85 procent skute\u010dn\u00fdch \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Posledn\u00ed varov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011brem Johnson varoval, \u017ee USA jsou zvykl\u00e9 bojovat se slab\u0161\u00edmi protivn\u00edky. Proti v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu akt\u00e9rovi, jako je \u00cdr\u00e1n, p\u0159edstavuje masivn\u00ed zni\u010den\u00ed americk\u00fdch sil v regionu skute\u010dnou hrozbu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Klesaj\u00edc\u00ed dolar \u2013 klesaj\u00edc\u00ed popt\u00e1vka po americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopisech, rostouc\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a arbitr\u00e1\u017e zlata mezi New Yorkem a \u0160anghaj\u00ed \u2013 nazna\u010duje za\u010d\u00e1tek poklesu ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu. Kombinace nadm\u011brn\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho nap\u00edn\u00e1n\u00ed, finan\u010dn\u00edho chaosu, odhalen\u00ed Epsteina a politick\u00fdch por\u00e1\u017eek pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b donut\u00ed Trumpa k \u00fastupu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 vol\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Program kon\u010d\u00ed v\u00fdzvou: Dokud budou moci vl\u00e1dy neru\u0161en\u011b zahajovat n\u00e1sil\u00ed, skute\u010dn\u00e1 svoboda z\u016fstane nedosa\u017eiteln\u00e1. NATO \u010del\u00ed nejist\u00e9 budoucnosti \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 konci \u00e9ry, v n\u00ed\u017e mohl Z\u00e1pad dominovat bez omezen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nevyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky jsou b\u011b\u017en\u00e9. Je tragick\u00e9, \u017ee na\u0161e vl\u00e1da vede preventivn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, zn\u00e1m\u00e9 tak\u00e9 jako&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98621,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,39,1052,37,40,889],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98620"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}