{"id":98453,"date":"2026-02-02T06:03:52","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T05:03:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98453"},"modified":"2026-02-02T06:03:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T05:03:52","slug":"rizeni-blizkosti-rusko-finsko-a-realita-severoevropske-bezpecnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/02\/rizeni-blizkosti-rusko-finsko-a-realita-severoevropske-bezpecnosti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0158\u00edzen\u00ed bl\u00edzkosti: Rusko, Finsko a realita severoevropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><b><span dir=\"auto\">V severn\u00ed Evrop\u011b se pozornost ti\u0161e, ale jist\u011b obrac\u00ed k Finsku. Nen\u00ed to kv\u016fli dramatick\u00fdm p\u0159esun\u016fm rusk\u00fdch vojsk ani hrozb\u011b bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Sp\u00ed\u0161e je to kv\u016fli geografii, historii a ned\u00e1vn\u00e9mu \u010dlenstv\u00ed Finska v NATO, co\u017e z n\u011bj ud\u011blalo kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd referen\u010dn\u00ed bod ve vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edm se vztahu mezi Moskvou a Z\u00e1padem.<\/span><\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><b><span dir=\"auto\">Finsko zauj\u00edm\u00e1 na strategick\u00e9 map\u011b Evropy jedine\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edsto. S v\u00edce ne\u017e 1280 kilometry spole\u010dn\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed hranice se zde nach\u00e1z\u00ed nejdel\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 hranice Moskvy s NATO. Helsinky nejsou vzd\u00e1lenou z\u00e1kladnou, ale \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm aktivem NATO, kter\u00e9 se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v t\u011bsn\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch region\u016f Ruska, v\u010detn\u011b oblasti kolem Petrohradu, druh\u00e9ho nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho rusk\u00e9ho m\u011bsta. U\u017e jen to zaji\u0161\u0165uje, \u017ee Finsko z\u016fstane trvalou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. Situace je v\u0161ak \u010dasto zdr\u017eenliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a promy\u0161len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e by se mohlo zd\u00e1t z ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 r\u00e9toriky.<\/span><\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_239759\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 605px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Fin.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-239759\" src=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Fin-452x300.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Fin-452x300.jpg 452w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Fin-1024x680.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Fin-768x510.jpg 768w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Fin.jpg 1358w\" alt=\"\" width=\"605\" height=\"401\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-239759\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-239759\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span dir=\"auto\">Fin\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci b\u011bhem vojensk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed pobl\u00ed\u017e rusk\u00fdch hranic<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Rusk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k Finsku odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed vzorec v jeho strategick\u00e9 kultu\u0159e. Moskva m\u00e1 tendenci myslet dlouhodob\u011b a up\u0159ednost\u0148uje trp\u011blivost a pe\u010dliv\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed impulzivn\u00edmi reakcemi. A\u010dkoli Kreml siln\u011b odm\u00edtal roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed NATO, jeho reakce na vstup Finska byla dosud sp\u00ed\u0161e um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e1 ne\u017e agresivn\u00ed. Tato zdr\u017eenlivost nesignalizuje souhlas, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u011bdomou volbu vyhnout se otev\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch lini\u00ed konfrontace, zat\u00edmco Rusko je hluboce anga\u017eovan\u00e9 jinde.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle finsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdky se Rusko i nad\u00e1le prim\u00e1rn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159uje na Ukrajinu. V\u011bt\u0161ina rusk\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch sil, obrann\u00e9 v\u00fdroby a opera\u010dn\u00ed pozornosti je v\u00e1z\u00e1na na vojenskou kampa\u0148 na Ukrajin\u011b. Z pohledu Moskvy je ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm strategick\u00fdm bojem s dlouhodob\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky pro postaven\u00ed Ruska v Evrop\u011b a jeho postaven\u00ed jako\u017eto velmoci. Finsko je ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s n\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, ale nikoli nal\u00e9hav\u00e9. Toto stanoven\u00ed priorit vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d se Rusko vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 hromad\u011bn\u00ed vojsk pod\u00e9l finsk\u00fdch hranic a m\u00edsto toho si zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 flexibilitu pro budoucnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 640px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-98453-1\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Putin-Says-Russia-Has-No-Problem-With-Sweden-or-Finland.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Putin-Says-Russia-Has-No-Problem-With-Sweden-or-Finland.mp4\">http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Putin-Says-Russia-Has-No-Problem-With-Sweden-or-Finland.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\">Putin\u016fv projev o vstupu Finska a \u0160v\u00e9dska do NATO, 16. kv\u011btna 2022<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">M\u00edsto toho, aby se Rusko spol\u00e9halo na otev\u0159en\u00fd vojensk\u00fd tlak, op\u00edr\u00e1 se o to, co z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici \u010dasto ozna\u010duj\u00ed za \u201ehybridn\u00ed\u201c n\u00e1stroje. Pat\u0159\u00ed sem akce, kter\u00e9 nespadaj\u00ed do hranice otev\u0159en\u00e9ho konfliktu a jsou navr\u017eeny tak, aby byly popirateln\u00e9 nebo nejednozna\u010dn\u00e9. Ve Finsku se to projevilo ru\u0161en\u00edm GPS v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i, n\u00e1hl\u00fdmi toky migrant\u016f na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed hranici a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdm z\u00e1jmem zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb o vojensk\u00e9 objekty. Tyto aktivity nejsou n\u00e1hodn\u00e9. Odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed promy\u0161len\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o utv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, ani\u017e by vyvolaly p\u0159\u00edmou vojenskou reakci. A to je d\u016fvod, pro\u010d se Helsinky rozhodly uzav\u0159\u00edt hranici s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z rusk\u00e9ho pohledu m\u00e1 tento p\u0159\u00edstup jasn\u00e9 v\u00fdhody. Hybridn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed Moskv\u011b testovat reakce, shroma\u017e\u010fovat informace a vys\u00edlat politick\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly a z\u00e1rove\u0148 udr\u017eovat rizika eskalace pod kontrolou. Nejde o improvizaci, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e o formu st\u00e1tn\u00edho um\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 up\u0159ednost\u0148uje nejednozna\u010dnost a zdr\u017eenlivost. Finsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady hodnot\u00ed Finsko jako prim\u00e1rn\u00ed c\u00edl sabot\u00e1\u017ee nebo destabilizace Ruska. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Moskva si st\u00e1le cen\u00ed zachov\u00e1n\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti a stability ve sv\u00e9m vztahu s Helsinkami, a to i uprost\u0159ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed se Z\u00e1padem.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_239761\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 603px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/A-road-sign-to-the-Raja-Jooseppi-border-station-in-Lapland-northern-Finland.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-239761\" src=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/A-road-sign-to-the-Raja-Jooseppi-border-station-in-Lapland-northern-Finland-490x290.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/A-road-sign-to-the-Raja-Jooseppi-border-station-in-Lapland-northern-Finland-490x290.jpg 490w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/A-road-sign-to-the-Raja-Jooseppi-border-station-in-Lapland-northern-Finland.jpg 665w\" alt=\"\" width=\"603\" height=\"357\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-239761\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-239761\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dopravn\u00ed zna\u010dka k hrani\u010dn\u00ed stanici Raja-Jooseppi v Laponsku v severn\u00edm Finsku<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud jde o konven\u010dn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 postaven\u00ed, rusk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost pobl\u00ed\u017e Finska se vyzna\u010duje sp\u00ed\u0161e kontinuitou ne\u017e teatr\u00e1lnost\u00ed. Nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu hromadn\u00e9mu p\u0159esunu pozemn\u00edch sil ani k n\u00e1hl\u00e9mu nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed po\u010dtu voj\u00e1k\u016f s c\u00edlem zastra\u0161it. Rusko si m\u00edsto toho udr\u017euje konzistentn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost zalo\u017eenou na leteck\u00e9 s\u00edle, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil\u00e1ch a syst\u00e9mech dlouh\u00e9ho doletu. Tyto schopnosti jsou soust\u0159ed\u011bny v dlouhodob\u011b zaveden\u00fdch struktur\u00e1ch, jako je Leningradsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd okruh a Severn\u00ed flotila. To je srovnateln\u00e9 s udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm sil nasazen\u00fdch vp\u0159edu jako formy odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e p\u0159\u00edpravy na bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed \u00fatok.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_239757\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 605px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-North-Fleet-officers-2025.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-239757\" src=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-North-Fleet-officers-2025-450x300.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-North-Fleet-officers-2025-450x300.jpg 450w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-North-Fleet-officers-2025-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-North-Fleet-officers-2025-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-North-Fleet-officers-2025-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-North-Fleet-officers-2025.jpg 2000w\" alt=\"\" width=\"605\" height=\"403\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-239757\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-239757\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fstojn\u00edci rusk\u00e9 Severn\u00ed flotily, 2025<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle hodnocen\u00ed finsk\u00fdch zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb m\u00e1 prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed reforma rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil za c\u00edl dlouhodob\u011b pos\u00edlit vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti v bl\u00edzkosti Finska. K smyslupln\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dojde a\u017e pot\u00e9, co konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b umo\u017en\u00ed p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed zdroj\u016f. To op\u011bt zd\u016fraz\u0148uje logiku Moskvy, kter\u00e1 se \u0159\u00edd\u00ed postupnost\u00ed. Rusko se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt ochotno akceptovat do\u010dasn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnou za zachov\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00e9 hloubky a dlouhodob\u00e9 p\u0159ipravenosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e se stalo dal\u0161\u00ed oblast\u00ed, kde je nap\u011bt\u00ed viditeln\u00e9, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 zvl\u00e1dan\u00e9. Rusk\u00fd n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed doprovod, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 hl\u00eddky a pevn\u00fd postoj k ochran\u011b n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f vyvolaly mezi zem\u011bmi NATO obavy. Tyto kroky do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch n\u00e1mo\u0159nictev ve sporn\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch jinde na sv\u011bt\u011b. Skute\u010dn\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ani tak v \u00famysln\u00e9 eskalaci, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e v nehod\u00e1ch nebo chybn\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dtech, zejm\u00e9na vzhledem k nadm\u011brn\u00e9mu mno\u017estv\u00ed elektronick\u00e9ho boje a naviga\u010dn\u00edch interferenc\u00ed v regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z pohledu Moskvy je zabezpe\u010den\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i praktickou nutnost\u00ed. V\u00fdvoz energie a obchodn\u00ed lodn\u00ed doprava jsou pro ruskou ekonomiku a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9. Ochrana t\u011bchto tok\u016f je racion\u00e1ln\u00ed prioritou, i kdy\u017e ob\u010das vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed t\u0159en\u00ed se sousedn\u00edmi st\u00e1ty a bl\u00edzk\u00fdmi silami NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_239756\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 602px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-Baltic-Fleet-military-ships.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-239756\" src=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-Baltic-Fleet-military-ships-459x300.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-Baltic-Fleet-military-ships-459x300.jpg 459w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-Baltic-Fleet-military-ships-768x502.jpg 768w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Russian-Baltic-Fleet-military-ships.jpg 800w\" alt=\"\" width=\"602\" height=\"393\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-239756\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-239756\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 lod\u011b Baltsk\u00e9 flotily<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00ed vrstvou obrazu je Arktida. Rusko ji\u017e dlouho pova\u017euje Arktidu za kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd strategick\u00fd region bohat\u00fd na p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed zdroje, kter\u00fd je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem jeho vize budouc\u00edch obchodn\u00edch tras, zejm\u00e9na Severn\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e9 trasy. Navzdory tlaku zp\u016fsoben\u00e9mu konfliktem na Ukrajin\u011b Rusko pokra\u010duje v reorganizaci sv\u00fdch arktick\u00fdch sil a udr\u017euje si z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159ipravenosti. Tato vytrvalost odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed jak ambice, tak zdr\u017eenlivost. Moskva chce signalizovat, \u017ee z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 rozhodn\u00fdm arktick\u00fdm akt\u00e9rem, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 si uv\u011bdomuje omezen\u00ed dan\u00e1 jej\u00edmi sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi z\u00e1vazky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Finsk\u00e1 role v tomto severn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed je nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e1, ale v\u00fdznamn\u00e1. Jako sou\u010d\u00e1st severn\u00edho k\u0159\u00eddla NATO p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 Finsko k celkov\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1ze sil v arktick\u00e9 a subarktick\u00e9 oblasti. Rusk\u00e9 kroky nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee se sna\u017e\u00ed demonstrovat sv\u00e9 schopnosti a \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, ani\u017e by vyprovokovalo p\u0159\u00edmou konfrontaci. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee toto sd\u011blen\u00ed je nam\u00ed\u0159eno m\u00e9n\u011b konkr\u00e9tn\u011b proti Finsku a sp\u00ed\u0161e k pos\u00edlen\u00ed postaven\u00ed Ruska jako\u017eto v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 severn\u00ed mocnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jedn\u00edm z faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 pom\u00e1haj\u00ed udr\u017eovat nap\u011bt\u00ed na uzd\u011b, je zjevn\u00fd respekt Ruska k obrann\u00fdm schopnostem Finska. Finsko nen\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako slab\u00e9 ani bezohledn\u00e9. Jeho obrann\u00fd model je zalo\u017een na \u00fazemn\u00ed obran\u011b, velk\u00e9 vycvi\u010den\u00e9 z\u00e1loze a siln\u00e9 spole\u010densk\u00e9 p\u0159ipravenosti. Tyto vlastnosti si vynucuj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fd stupe\u0148 profesion\u00e1ln\u00edho respektu, a to i mezi potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmi protivn\u00edky. Finsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 zpravodajstv\u00ed je hluboce integrov\u00e1no do n\u00e1rodn\u00edch rozhodovac\u00edch proces\u016f a nyn\u00ed p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 ke kolektivn\u00edmu situa\u010dn\u00edmu pov\u011bdom\u00ed NATO, co\u017e d\u00e1le posiluje postaven\u00ed Finska jako\u017eto seri\u00f3zn\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho akt\u00e9ra.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_239755\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 606px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Finnish-Army-coscripts.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-239755\" src=\"https:\/\/s1.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Finnish-Army-coscripts-450x300.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Finnish-Army-coscripts-450x300.jpg 450w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Finnish-Army-coscripts-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Finnish-Army-coscripts-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Finnish-Army-coscripts-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/s5.cdnstatic.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Finnish-Army-coscripts.jpg 2048w\" alt=\"\" width=\"606\" height=\"404\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-239755\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-239755\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span dir=\"auto\">Odvedenci finsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Omezen\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 zpravodajsk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost ve Finsku tak\u00e9 odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed anal\u00fdzu n\u00e1klad\u016f a p\u0159\u00ednos\u016f. Po letech zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00fdch kontrarozv\u011bdn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed a vyho\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed se zd\u00e1, \u017ee \u0161pion\u00e1\u017en\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdsledky. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se Moskva p\u0159izp\u016fsobuje pragmaticky, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby eskalaci z frustrace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee finsk\u00e9 odhady doch\u00e1zej\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 hrozba ze strany Ruska je v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1. Toto zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed je v souladu s \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed strategickou situac\u00ed Ruska. Moskva je siln\u011b anga\u017eovan\u00e1 na Ukrajin\u011b, \u010del\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9mu tlaku a orientuje se v slo\u017eit\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch vztaz\u00edch. Otev\u0159en\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed fronty, by\u0165 i nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9, by v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi nab\u00eddlo jen mal\u00fd strategick\u00fd p\u0159\u00ednos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">M\u00edsto toho se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko spokojen\u011b nech\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010das pracovat ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch. Jeho ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly se reformuj\u00ed, jeho obrann\u00e1 v\u00fdroba se p\u0159izp\u016fsobuje sankc\u00edm a jeho partnerstv\u00ed se zem\u011bmi, jako je \u010c\u00edna, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Severn\u00ed Korea, pom\u00e1h\u00e1 kompenzovat n\u011bkter\u00e1 materi\u00e1ln\u00ed omezen\u00ed. Rusko m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu b\u00fdt v lep\u0161\u00ed pozici, ne\u017e je dnes, a\u017e se podm\u00ednky zm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><b><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010dasn\u00fd vztah mezi Ruskem a Finskem nen\u00ed ani p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fd, ani otev\u0159en\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fd. Je definov\u00e1n sp\u00ed\u0161e realismem a vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdm v\u011bdom\u00edm rizik ne\u017e ideologickou konfrontac\u00ed. Moskva se i nad\u00e1le stav\u00ed proti roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO sm\u011brem ke sv\u00fdm hranic\u00edm, p\u0159esto dosud vol\u00ed zdr\u017eenlivost p\u0159ed provokacemi, \u0159\u00edd\u00edc se dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi prioritami a omezen\u00fdmi zdroji. Finsko posiluje svou obranu a prohlubuje svou roli v NATO, ani\u017e by zveli\u010dovalo hrozby nebo vykreslovalo Rusko jako bezprost\u0159edn\u00edho protivn\u00edka. Ob\u011b strany si z\u0159ejm\u011b uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee stabilita pod\u00e9l jejich spole\u010dn\u00e9 hranice slou\u017e\u00ed praktick\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm, zejm\u00e9na v dob\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 nejistoty jinde v Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><b><span dir=\"auto\">V \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm smyslu finsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad ilustruje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed vzorec v interakci Ruska s NATO: odpor projevovan\u00fd signalizac\u00ed, adaptac\u00ed a dlouhodob\u00fdm pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e okam\u017eitou eskalac\u00ed. Absence dramatick\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch krok\u016f by nem\u011bla b\u00fdt zam\u011b\u0148ov\u00e1na za lhostejnost, ale ani nenazna\u010duje p\u0159\u00edpravu na kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd konflikt. Vztah sp\u00ed\u0161e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed, zachov\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00e9 flexibility a vyhnut\u00ed se chybn\u00fdm odhad\u016fm. V tomto smyslu Finsko nep\u0159edstavuje ohnisko konfliktu, ale barometr toho, jak se Rusko a Z\u00e1pad \u2013 neklidn\u011b a nedokonale \u2013 u\u010d\u00ed koexistovat v trval\u00e9 konfrontaci, ani\u017e by dovolily, aby se ta vyhrotila v otev\u0159enou v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V severn\u00ed Evrop\u011b se pozornost ti\u0161e, ale jist\u011b obrac\u00ed k Finsku. Nen\u00ed to kv\u016fli dramatick\u00fdm&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98455,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,675,804,39,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98453"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98453\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}