{"id":98450,"date":"2026-02-02T05:57:55","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T04:57:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98450"},"modified":"2026-02-02T05:57:55","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T04:57:55","slug":"jak-falesne-predpovedi-ropneho-zlomu-zenou-svet-do-dalsi-krize-dodavek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/02\/jak-falesne-predpovedi-ropneho-zlomu-zenou-svet-do-dalsi-krize-dodavek\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak fale\u0161n\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi \u201eropn\u00e9ho zlomu\u201c \u017eenou sv\u011bt do dal\u0161\u00ed krize dod\u00e1vek"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy jsou rozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se \u010dasto tvrd\u00ed. Tato neust\u00e1l\u00e1 propaganda proti rop\u011b v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 vedla k men\u0161\u00edm investic\u00edm do tohoto odv\u011btv\u00ed, ne\u017e je ve skute\u010dnosti pot\u0159eba. To by mohlo b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika let v\u00e9st k probl\u00e9m\u016fm s dod\u00e1vkami.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt byl po l\u00e9ta veden k p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee konec dod\u00e1vek ropy je na spadnut\u00ed. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 agentura (IEA) s mision\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm z\u00e1palem prohla\u0161ovala, \u017ee nezastaviteln\u00fd pokles fosiln\u00edch paliv za\u010dne nejpozd\u011bji v roce 2030 a \u017ee do roku 2050 budou prakticky histori\u00ed. Politici, m\u00e9dia i investo\u0159i tuto teorii n\u00e1sledovali \u2013 s katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edmi n\u00e1sledky. Skute\u010dn\u00e9 investice do produkce ropy a plynu dramaticky propadly. Tyto ideologicky motivovan\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi se v\u0161ak brzy mohly dramaticky obr\u00e1tit proti nim.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u0159ed deseti lety klesly investice do pr\u016fzkumu a rozvoje z\u00e1sob ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 30 procent \u2013 \u200b\u200bco\u017e bylo vyvol\u00e1no obavami z tzv. \u201euv\u00edzl\u00fdch aktiv\u201c. Od t\u00e9 doby se toto investi\u010dn\u00ed nevy\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 obdob\u00ed zpevnilo, zat\u00edmco glob\u00e1ln\u00ed popt\u00e1vka po energii nad\u00e1le ne\u00fanavn\u011b roste.\u00a0<\/span>Nov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va<\/span><\/a>\u00a0N\u00e1rodn\u00edho centra pro energetickou anal\u00fdzu nyn\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b varuje p\u0159ed mezerami v nab\u00eddce, pokud popt\u00e1vka z\u016fstane by\u0165 jen vzd\u00e1len\u011b na \u00farovni z po\u010d\u00e1tku 21. stolet\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>Jen v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch deseti letech<\/span><\/a>\u00a0by mohl vzniknout nedostatek finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,5 bilionu dolar\u016f .<\/span><\/p>\n

To, \u017ee se v\u011bci dostaly a\u017e sem, je v\u00fdsledkem zpolitizovan\u00e9ho modelov\u00e1n\u00ed. Od roku 2020 se IEA fakticky zav\u00e1zala k sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016fm s nulov\u00fdmi \u010dist\u00fdmi emisemi a systematicky ignorovala alternativn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj. Tuto autocenzuru vd\u011b\u010dn\u011b vyu\u017eila m\u00e9dia a zes\u00edlila ji v titulc\u00edch varuj\u00edc\u00edch investory p\u0159ed \u00fadajn\u011b bezcenn\u00fdmi ropn\u00fdmi a plynov\u00fdmi projekty. Realita v tomto narativu hr\u00e1la jen malou roli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory ve\u0161ker\u00e9 r\u00e9torice kolem energetick\u00e9 transformace dnes sv\u011bt spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00edce fosiln\u00edch paliv ne\u017e kdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm a jejich pod\u00edl na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm energetick\u00e9m mixu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed pozoruhodn\u011b stabiln\u00ed. I v z\u00e1padn\u00edch industrializovan\u00fdch zem\u00edch je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 provozovat v\u011btrnou a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energii bez z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f fosiln\u00edch paliv. Americk\u00fd sen\u00e1tor John Barrasso to v\u00fdsti\u017en\u011b shrnul, kdy\u017e obvinil IEA, \u017ee ji\u017e neprov\u00e1d\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy, ale m\u00edsto toho p\u016fsob\u00ed jako roztlesk\u00e1va\u010dka energetick\u00e9 transformace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teprve pod masivn\u00edm tlakem IEA opatrn\u011b ustoupila a znovu povolila sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, v nich\u017e ropa a plyn budou hr\u00e1t roli i po roce 2050. I tato korekce kurzu se v\u0161ak zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt polovi\u010dat\u00e1. Adam Sieminski, b\u00fdval\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f americk\u00e9ho \u00da\u0159adu pro energetick\u00e9 informace (EIA), hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201ene\u00fapln\u00e9m n\u00e1vratu k realit\u011b\u201c a varuje p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00edm spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00edm se na nerealistick\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady. Pokud se tv\u016frci politik budou i nad\u00e1le spol\u00e9hat na zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e1 fakta, cenov\u00e9 \u0161oky a nedostatek dod\u00e1vek jsou na spadnut\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopolitick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky tohoto \u0161patn\u00e9ho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed jsou obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9. Pokud by do\u0161lo k nedostatku dod\u00e1vek, ot\u00e1zkou nen\u00ed jen cena, ale tak\u00e9 s\u00edla: Kdo bude dod\u00e1vat a za jak\u00fdch podm\u00ednek? Zem\u011b OPEC se nikdy nenechaly ovlivnit narativem o ropn\u00e9m zlomu a nad\u00e1le se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na stabiln\u00ed trhy. Zem\u011b jako Venezuela disponuj\u00ed obrovsk\u00fdmi rezervami, kter\u00e9 by mohly b\u00fdt rychle mobilizov\u00e1ny, pokud by se zm\u011bnila politick\u00e1 situace. Z\u00e1pad se naopak dobrovoln\u011b dostal do pozice strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd klimatick\u00e9 modely pravideln\u011b podce\u0148uj\u00ed, je lidsk\u00e1 prosperita. Rostouc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy znamenaj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mobilitu, v\u00edce cestov\u00e1n\u00ed a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu energie. Miliony lid\u00ed v Asii a Africe si poprv\u00e9 kupuj\u00ed auta nebo nastupuj\u00ed do letadel \u2013 zcela nez\u00e1visle na evropsk\u00fdch emisn\u00edch c\u00edlech. Z\u00e1rove\u0148, i kdy\u017e demografick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy ukazuj\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00ed porodnost, men\u0161\u00ed a bohat\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace automaticky neznamen\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bez zna\u010dn\u00fdch investic do ropn\u00e9 infrastruktury se energetick\u00e1 situace b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika let v\u00fdrazn\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed. Popt\u00e1vka p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 i po roce 2050. A ropa n\u00e1m v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b nedojde.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy jsou rozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se \u010dasto tvrd\u00ed. Tato neust\u00e1l\u00e1 propaganda proti rop\u011b v\u0161ak…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98451,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,310,10507],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98450"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98450\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}