{"id":98282,"date":"2026-01-31T06:44:10","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T05:44:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98282"},"modified":"2026-01-31T06:44:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T05:44:10","slug":"uriel-araujo-patova-situace-mezi-afghanistanem-a-pakistanem-se-stava-nejnebezpecnejsi-krizi-v-jizni-asii-a-zastini-kasmir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/31\/uriel-araujo-patova-situace-mezi-afghanistanem-a-pakistanem-se-stava-nejnebezpecnejsi-krizi-v-jizni-asii-a-zastini-kasmir\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Patov\u00e1 situace mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem se st\u00e1v\u00e1 nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kriz\u00ed v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii a zast\u00edn\u00ed Ka\u0161m\u00edr"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Hranice mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem se st\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00fdm ohniskem nestability uprost\u0159ed p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch obvin\u011bn\u00ed proti T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu a otepluj\u00edc\u00edch se vztah\u016f K\u00e1bulu s Indi\u00ed. Eskalace by mohla znovu rozn\u00edtit masov\u00fd terorismus, destabilizovat region a zat\u00ed\u017eit euroasijsk\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed, energetick\u00e9 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed koridory, a t\u00edm prov\u011b\u0159it multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed r\u00e1mce, jako jsou \u0160OS a BRICS.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm tlakov\u00fdm bodem ji\u017en\u00ed Asie se nemus\u00ed nach\u00e1zet pod\u00e9l kontroln\u00ed linie v Ka\u0161m\u00edru, ale z\u00e1padn\u011bji, pod\u00e9l nestabiln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>afgh\u00e1nsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0hranice. Tato hranice se rychle st\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm hybatelem region\u00e1ln\u00ed nestability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0expert Michael Kugelman , nab\u00edr\u00e1 na obr\u00e1tk\u00e1ch nedostate\u010dn\u011b informovan\u00fd konflikt mezi p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi \u00fa\u0159ady v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du a vl\u00e1dou T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu v K\u00e1bulu. Soust\u0159ed\u00ed se na p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>tvrzen\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee K\u00e1bul\u00a0<\/span>toleruje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, ne-li p\u0159\u00edmo podporuje, militanty hnut\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0operuj\u00edc\u00ed proti Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du. Tato konfrontace nyn\u00ed hroz\u00ed, \u017ee zast\u00edn\u00ed i tradi\u010dn\u00ed indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nskou rivalitu jako nejv\u00fdbu\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dilema regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Data jsou v\u00fdmluvn\u00e1. Teroristick\u00e9 n\u00e1sil\u00ed v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu\u00a0<\/span>v roce 2025 prudce vzrostlo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e TTP byly p\u0159ips\u00e1ny stovky \u00fatok\u016f, z nich\u017e mnoh\u00e9 byly zah\u00e1jeny z afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. P\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du reagovaly leteck\u00fdmi \u00fadery a\u00a0<\/span>uzav\u0159en\u00edm hranic<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(mimo jin\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00edmi). To n\u00e1sledn\u011b vyvolalo odvetn\u00e9 akce T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu,\u00a0<\/span>vys\u00eddlov\u00e1n\u00ed obyvatelstva<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a eskalaci r\u00e9toriky. Ani jedna ze stran v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nem\u00e1 motivaci k deeskalaci: p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da se c\u00edt\u00ed zrazena afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fdm T\u00e1lib\u00e1nem, hnut\u00edm, kter\u00e9 kdysi podporovala, nyn\u00ed obvi\u0148ov\u00e1na z tolerov\u00e1n\u00ed nebo dokonce napom\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed kampani TTP proti Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du; afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fd T\u00e1lib\u00e1n mezit\u00edm z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed legitimitu pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edm, \u017ee se stav\u00ed proti P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, zemi, kterou afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost \u0161iroce nen\u00e1vid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V dne\u0161n\u00edm Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu existuje mnoho faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 p\u0159i\u017eivuj\u00ed protip\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 n\u00e1lady, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9ho sporu o Durandovu linii<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a dlouhodob\u00e9ho zapojen\u00ed P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu do afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fdch konflikt\u016f. Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d je v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu v\u0161eobecn\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako n\u011bkdo, kdo po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>manipuloval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi frakcemi t\u00edm, \u017ee podporoval\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1stupce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(v\u010detn\u011b, ironicky, samotn\u00e9ho afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu), aby si zajistil \u201estrategickou hloubku\u201c. Tyto historick\u00e9 k\u0159ivdy dodnes p\u0159i\u017eivuj\u00ed podez\u0159en\u00ed a z\u00e1\u0161\u0165 v afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, a to i za hranicemi p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuj\u00ed v\u0161ak \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed. V roce 2025 jsem\u00a0<\/span>tvrdil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee nap\u011bt\u00ed v Ji\u017en\u00ed Asii t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch spor\u016f se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie a d\u00e1le, od\u00a0<\/span>hydropolitiky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u017e po\u00a0<\/span>militantn\u00ed p\u0159el\u00e9v\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a soupe\u0159en\u00ed velmoc\u00ed. Patov\u00e1 situace mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem se nyn\u00ed prot\u00edn\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b s t\u011bmito \u0161ir\u0161\u00edmi euroasijsk\u00fdmi liniemi nap\u011bt\u00ed. Nestabilita podporovan\u00e1 Talibanem na severoz\u00e1pad\u011b P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 vedle\u00a0aktivit\u00a0<\/a><\/span>Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu Chor\u00e1s\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(ISKP)\u00a0,\u00a0separatismu Bal\u00fad\u017e\u016f<\/a>\u00a0a tlaku uprchl\u00edk\u016f. To se d\u011bje uprost\u0159ed \u0159ady k\u0159ehk\u00fdch region\u00e1ln\u00edch propojen\u00ed a tranzitn\u00edch projekt\u016f spojuj\u00edc\u00edch Ji\u017en\u00ed a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii, kter\u00e9 v\u0161echny z\u00e1vis\u00ed na p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed stabilit\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee m\u00e1 Peking obavy: \u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 a\u00a0<\/span>investice<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, zejm\u00e9na v r\u00e1mci \u010d\u00ednsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho koridoru, se ji\u017e staly\u00a0<\/span>ter\u010dem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00fatok\u016f ozbrojenc\u016f. \u010c\u00edna z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u010del\u00ed vlastn\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm obav\u00e1m<\/span><\/a>\u00a0spojen\u00fdm s d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00fdmi s\u00edt\u011bmi\u00a0<\/span>s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00edmi v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed ideologick\u00e9 a opera\u010dn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>vazby<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na\u00a0<\/span>Sin-\u0165iang<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. A\u0165 je to jakkoli, \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 vliv na K\u00e1bul i Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d a dosud vyzvala ke zdr\u017eenlivosti, nikoli ke konfrontaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co v\u0161ak P\u00e1kist\u00e1n skute\u010dn\u011b znepokojuje, nen\u00ed jen \u00fadajn\u00e1 dvojakost afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu v ot\u00e1zce TTP, ale i\u00a0<\/span>otepluj\u00edc\u00ed se vztahy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0K\u00e1bulu s Indi\u00ed, co\u017e zna\u010d\u00ed posun. Dnes Indii pravideln\u011b nav\u0161t\u011bvuj\u00ed vysoc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu,\u00a0<\/span>znovu se otev\u00edraj\u00ed ambas\u00e1dy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a diskutuje se o obchodn\u00edch mechanismech. Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d vn\u00edm\u00e1 tento posun jako strategick\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed. Zda je toto vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00e9, je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 druho\u0159ad\u00e9; v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii, jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, je toto vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed ni\u010div\u00e9. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n tak m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1le v\u00edce vn\u00edmat Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n nejen jako z\u00e1padn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed probl\u00e9m, ale jako sou\u010d\u00e1st \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed indocentrick\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde se zn\u00e1sobuj\u00ed rizika eskalace. Tvrd\u0161\u00ed p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 proti TTP, v\u010detn\u011b mo\u017en\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch vp\u00e1d\u016f do Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, by mohla vyprovokovat odvetu militant\u016f podporovan\u00fdch T\u00e1lib\u00e1nem hluboko v p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch m\u011bstech. V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i\u00a0mohl\u00a0<\/span>listopadov\u00fd sebevra\u017eedn\u00fd bombov\u00fd \u00fatok v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du signalizovat, co n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by obnoven\u00e1 nestabilita v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu byla jak\u00fdmsi darem pro ISKP, kter\u00fd by mohl d\u00e1le prosperovat d\u00edky sekt\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 polarizaci. Skupina ji\u017e prok\u00e1zala sv\u016fj nadn\u00e1rodn\u00ed dosah, od\u00a0<\/span>\u00fatok\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a\u00a0<\/span>Rusku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u017e po zma\u0159en\u00e9 spiknut\u00ed v Evrop\u011b. Destabilizovan\u00e1 osa Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n-P\u00e1kist\u00e1n by tak zv\u00fd\u0161ila rizika glob\u00e1ln\u00edho terorismu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm se v d\u016fsledku uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed hranic a zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed politiky vyost\u0159uje humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed probl\u00e9m, co\u017e je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161uje pozastaven\u00ed program\u016f p\u0159es\u00eddlov\u00e1n\u00ed ze strany Washingtonu. Desetitis\u00edce lid\u00ed uprchly\u00a0<\/span>ze<\/span><\/a>\u00a0severoz\u00e1padu P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu v obav\u011b z nov\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed. Obchodn\u00ed a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy jsou naru\u0161eny,\u00a0<\/span>co\u017e m\u00e1 dopad na<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vnitrozemsk\u00e9 ekonomiky St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie a energetick\u00e9 projekty, jako je\u00a0<\/span>plynovod TAPI<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na tomto pozad\u00ed se z\u00e1padn\u00ed recepty jev\u00ed st\u00e1le pr\u00e1zdn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Trumpova administrativa up\u0159ednost\u0148uje ad hoc, personalizovanou diplomacii, v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, s mal\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem pro jej\u00ed dosa\u017een\u00ed. Jej\u00ed deficit d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti je viditeln\u00fd v cel\u00e9 Eurasii. Dokonce i v Davosu nyn\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed elity\u00a0<\/span>mluv\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 pom\u011brn\u011b pokrytecky \u2013 o \u201esmrti\u201c tzv. mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du zalo\u017een\u00e9ho na pravidlech, co\u017e je eufemismus pro \u00fapadek anglocentrick\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zhroucen\u00ed jednoho \u0159\u00e1du v\u0161ak automaticky nevede k lep\u0161\u00edmu. St\u0159edn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed Asie proto mohou slou\u017eit jako takov\u00fd testovac\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad toho, zda skute\u010dn\u011b multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed r\u00e1mce dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed zvl\u00e1dat konflikty. Jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>uvedl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, platformy, jako je \u0160anghajsk\u00e1 organizace pro spolupr\u00e1ci a BRICS, jsou region\u00e1ln\u011b zakotveny, inkluzivn\u00ed a nejsou zat\u00ed\u017eeny koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Afgh\u00e1nsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize nen\u00ed jen bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm sporem; je to sb\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed bod terorismu, migrace, energetick\u00fdch koridor\u016f a konkurence velmoc\u00ed. Mechanismy \u0160OS v oblasti boje proti terorismu, bezpe\u010dnosti hranic a budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry by mohly b\u00fdt upraveny tak, aby \u0159e\u0161ily p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed militantn\u00ed aktivity zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n, i kdyby K\u00e1bul z\u016fstal integrov\u00e1n pouze \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b. BRICS by mezit\u00edm mohla vyu\u017e\u00edt ekonomick\u00e9 pob\u00eddky a koordinaci infrastruktury k vytvo\u0159en\u00ed podm\u00ednek pro stabilitu \u2013\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1jem P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu o \u010dlenstv\u00ed v BRICS<\/span><\/a>\u00a0je dostate\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dasp\u011bch nen\u00ed zaru\u010den: T\u00e1lib\u00e1n se\u00a0<\/span>ob\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z\u00e1vazn\u00fdch vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch omezen\u00ed (p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm); p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da je st\u00e1le netrp\u011bliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed; Indie se nad\u00e1le ob\u00e1v\u00e1 multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch r\u00e1mc\u016f, kter\u00e9 by mohly internacionalizovat Ka\u0161m\u00edr. Alternativou je v\u0161ak eskalace automaticky. Region s jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, militantn\u00edmi skupinami a k\u0159ehk\u00fdmi obchodn\u00edmi a energetick\u00fdmi koridory si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit improvizaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0158e\u010deno bez obalu, pokud nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem p\u0159eroste v otev\u0159en\u00fd konflikt, ot\u0159esn\u00e9 vlny se nezastav\u00ed u Chajbersk\u00e9ho pr\u016fsmyku. Budou se \u0161\u00ed\u0159it po cel\u00e9 Eurasii, od st\u0159edoasijsk\u00fdch \u0159ek a\u017e po obchodn\u00ed cesty v Indick\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu a d\u00e1le, zat\u00edmco star\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d bude sl\u00e1bnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hranice mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem se st\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00fdm ohniskem nestability uprost\u0159ed p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch obvin\u011bn\u00ed proti T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98283,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[118,1042,804,129],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98282"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98282\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}