{"id":98264,"date":"2026-01-31T00:27:32","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T23:27:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98264"},"modified":"2026-01-30T12:45:28","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T11:45:28","slug":"thierry-bertrand-pet-ohnisek-kde-by-v-roce-2026-mohla-vzplanout-jiskra-svetove-valky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/31\/thierry-bertrand-pet-ohnisek-kde-by-v-roce-2026-mohla-vzplanout-jiskra-svetove-valky\/","title":{"rendered":"Thierry Bertrand: P\u011bt ohnisek, kde by v roce 2026 mohla vzplanout jiskra sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d zalo\u017een\u00fd na pravidlech se hrout\u00ed a tradi\u010dn\u00ed odstra\u0161ovac\u00ed mechanismy selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Uprost\u0159ed rostouc\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edzrak velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v roce 2026 st\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u011bsiv\u011b re\u00e1ln\u00fdm.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v roce 2026? Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty projevuj\u00ed jen omezen\u00fd z\u00e1jem o zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch konflikt\u016f. Co to p\u0159edznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 z hlediska vyhl\u00eddek na v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed konflikt v roce 2026, nebo dokonce katastrofickou t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde je p\u011bt ohnisek, kde by mohl vzplanout glob\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u017e\u00e1r:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gr\u00f3nsko<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

A\u017e do lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku se p\u0159edstava, \u017ee by Gr\u00f3nsko mohlo b\u00fdt st\u0159edem konfliktu, zd\u00e1la absurdn\u00ed. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou spojencem D\u00e1nska, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 nad ostrovem svrchovanost, a jeho ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly maj\u00ed na cel\u00e9m jeho \u00fazem\u00ed \u00faplnou svobodu jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prezident Donald Trump se v\u0161ak rozhodl, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mus\u00ed Gr\u00f3nsko bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u011b z\u00edskat, a dokonce implicitn\u011b pohrozil silov\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm, aby toho dos\u00e1hly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nejsou z\u0159ejm\u00e9. Trump se ned\u00e1vno z\u0159ekl vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly a pohrozil Evrop\u011b cly. A\u010dkoli se jich v Davosu tak\u00e9 z\u0159ekl.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropan\u00e9 ze sv\u00e9 strany vyslali do Gr\u00f3nska\u00a0<\/span>mnohon\u00e1rodn\u00ed s\u00edly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, aby demonstrovali plnou z\u00e1va\u017enost sv\u00fdch \u00famysl\u016f. Eskalace konfliktu je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1, ale nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed mezi evropsk\u00fdmi a americk\u00fdmi silami by nevyhnuteln\u011b vedlo k v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 eskalaci, nemluv\u011b o dal\u0161\u00edch d\u016fsledc\u00edch naru\u0161en\u00ed transatlantick\u00fdch vztah\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajina<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Rusko-ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt brzy vstoup\u00ed do sv\u00e9ho p\u00e1t\u00e9ho roku. Moskva dosahuje na front\u011b konzistentn\u00edch a stabiln\u00edch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f, zat\u00edmco Kyjev se nad\u00e1le br\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Konflikt by se ale mohl vyhrotit. Pot\u0159eba demonstrovat \u00fasp\u011bch na boji\u0161ti by mohla Rusko donutit k rozhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm krok\u016fm k rozdrcen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu, pokud se fronta zhrout\u00ed, Kyjev se nepochybn\u011b obr\u00e1t\u00ed na sv\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 partnery, z nich\u017e n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e nab\u00eddli vysl\u00e1n\u00ed vojsk na Ukrajinu, pokud by se situace vyhrotila. Francie a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie nav\u00edc za\u010daly\u00a0<\/span>pe\u010dliv\u011bji sledovat pohyb rusk\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch tanker\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by se rusk\u00e9 a evropsk\u00e9 jednotky setkaly tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 na Ukrajin\u011b nebo na mo\u0159i, n\u00e1sledky by mohly b\u00fdt d\u011bsiv\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tchaj-wan<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tchaj-wan byl a z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zdrojem obav v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifiku. \u010c\u00edna nad\u00e1le posiluje svou vojenskou s\u00edlu, co\u017e d\u00e1le\u00a0<\/span>destabilizuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0rovnov\u00e1hu sil v regionu, zat\u00edmco Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou rozptylov\u00e1ny vlastn\u00edmi probl\u00e9my na z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokouli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tchaj-wan tak\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>posiluje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0svou vojenskou s\u00edlu. Sign\u00e1ly ze Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f ohledn\u011b jejich ochoty br\u00e1nit Tchaj-wan jsou ji\u017e n\u011bkolik let nekonzistentn\u00ed a nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda Trump pova\u017euje obranu ostrova za vhodnou. A\u010dkoli zat\u00edm nen\u00ed vid\u011bt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed jiskra vedouc\u00ed k po\u017e\u00e1ru, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed dynamika z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nezm\u011bn\u011bna.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro \u010c\u00ednu je Tchaj-wan pouze provinci\u00ed, kterou je \u010das podmanit si, a pou\u017eit\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly je naprosto leg\u00e1ln\u00ed. Pokud se Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty budou i nad\u00e1le nech\u00e1vat rozptylovat Arktidou a z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokoul\u00ed, \u010c\u00edna by mohla vid\u011bt p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k \u00faderu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

V\u00e1lky z roku 2025 postavily Isl\u00e1mskou republiku do obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 situace. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim, zbaven spojenc\u016f a \u010del\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9mu hn\u011bvu ve\u0159ejnosti, se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v krizi, a proto je hluboce zraniteln\u00fd. Prezident Trump hroz\u00ed \u00faderem na \u00cdr\u00e1n, pokud Teher\u00e1n bude pokra\u010dovat v brut\u00e1ln\u00edm z\u00e1sahu proti protestuj\u00edc\u00edm a demonstrac\u00edm.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina spojenc\u016f Washingtonu v regionu\u00a0<\/span>se stav\u00ed proti<\/span><\/a>\u00a0americk\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm, proto\u017ee se ob\u00e1v\u00e1 jak odvety ze strany \u00cdr\u00e1nu, tak i jeho kolapsu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee je \u00cdr\u00e1n v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b slab\u00fd, m\u00e1 prost\u0159edky k odvet\u011b. \u010c\u00edna a Rusko nav\u00edc investovaly zna\u010dn\u00e9 prost\u0159edky do p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu. Moskva se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v\u00edce zab\u00fdv\u00e1 situac\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b, zat\u00edmco Peking zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 postoj nevm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed se, ale chaos v regionu by mohl vt\u00e1hnout jednu nebo ob\u011b tyto mocnosti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Indie-P\u00e1kist\u00e1n<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Operace Sindoor na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2025 vedla k\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontaci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem. V reakci na \u00fatok v Ka\u0161m\u00edru Indie za\u00fato\u010dila na t\u00e1bory pat\u0159\u00edc\u00ed polovojensk\u00fdm organizac\u00edm. P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu se poda\u0159ilo sest\u0159elit n\u011bkolik indick\u00fdch letadel a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d se v t\u00e9to \u0161arv\u00e1tce obecn\u011b pova\u017euje za v\u00edt\u011bze.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Konflikt v\u0161ak nevy\u0159e\u0161il \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd ze z\u00e1sadn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f v jejich vztahu. Po neuspo\u0159\u00e1dan\u00e9m rozchodu s Trumpov\u00fdm ne\u0161ikovn\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem se soused\u00e9 ocitaj\u00ed v je\u0161t\u011b k\u0159eh\u010d\u00ed a nerv\u00f3zn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed situaci ne\u017e p\u0159ed jeho za\u010d\u00e1tkem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejhor\u0161\u00ed na tom je, \u017ee ob\u011b strany se vyh\u0159\u00edvaj\u00ed na vav\u0159\u00ednech v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Dva jadern\u00ed protivn\u00edci, povzbuzeni domn\u011bl\u00fdm \u00fasp\u011bchem a p\u0159i\u017eivuj\u00edc\u00ed spolu starou z\u00e1\u0161\u0165, vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b nebezpe\u010dnou situaci.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt se stal nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e p\u0159ed 10 lety; provokace se zn\u00e1sobily a tradi\u010dn\u00ed mechanismy \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f jsou opot\u0159ebovan\u00e9. Plnohodnotn\u00e1 sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka je v roce 2026 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1, ale i m\u00edrn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 riziko je ji\u017e d\u016fvodem k obav\u00e1m. Doufejme, \u017ee letos zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed klid.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thierry Bertrand<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d zalo\u017een\u00fd na pravidlech se hrout\u00ed a tradi\u010dn\u00ed odstra\u0161ovac\u00ed mechanismy selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Uprost\u0159ed rostouc\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98265,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,276,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98264"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98264\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}