{"id":98205,"date":"2026-01-30T05:27:22","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T04:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98205"},"modified":"2026-01-30T06:02:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T05:02:04","slug":"alastair-crooke-ustoupi-trump-v-otazce-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/30\/alastair-crooke-ustoupi-trump-v-otazce-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Alastair Crooke: Ustoup\u00ed Trump v ot\u00e1zce \u00cdr\u00e1nu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ch\u00e1pe Trump, \u017ee \u201ev\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c nad \u00cdr\u00e1nem nen\u00ed \u201eslam dunk<\/a>\u201c? \u2013 v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se mohl rozhodnout pro TACO (TACO je zkratka pro \u201eTrump Always Chickens Out\u201c (Trump v\u017edycky zbab\u011ble couvne), co\u017e je zjevn\u00e1 nar\u00e1\u017eka na kol\u00edsav\u00fd postoj americk\u00e9ho prezidenta k celn\u00edm sazb\u00e1m, pozn\u00e1mka editora<\/i>), doprov\u00e1zen\u00e9 drtiv\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi hrozbami v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jak je v dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b \u010dasto zvykem, rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 se v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku odv\u00edj\u00ed od Trumpovy psychologie a jeho pot\u0159eby ovl\u00e1dat pozornost v\u0161ech kolem sebe.\u00a0Ch\u00e1pe<\/a>, \u017ee a\u0165 u\u017e jeho maximalistick\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vypadaj\u00ed \u2013 a jsou \u2013 jakkoli \u0161\u00edlen\u00e1, obvykle se prom\u00edtaj\u00ed do \u201eimage siln\u00e9ho mu\u017ee\u201c. Trumpova kari\u00e9ra je zalo\u017eena na p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee jeho voli\u010di miluj\u00ed \u201esiln\u00e9ho mu\u017ee\u201c a jak\u00e9koli zn\u00e1mky slabosti naru\u0161uj\u00ed iluzi s\u00edly. To je n\u011bco, co mu obecn\u011b funguje.<\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 elity to v\u0161ak \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 pochopiteln\u011b \u2013 t\u011b\u017eko p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00ed a propadaj\u00ed z\u00e1chvat\u016fm pobou\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dem, jak\u00a0nazna\u010dil<\/a>\u00a0pozorovatel Trumpa Michael Wolff, je to, \u017ee po dnech, kdy Trump \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u201etohle nebo tamto\u201c se ud\u011bl\u00e1, bu\u010f \u201esnadn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, nebo t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem\u201c, obvykle nast\u00e1v\u00e1 zlomov\u00fd bod, kdy mus\u00ed man\u00e9vrovat, aby se vymanil ze sv\u00fdch maximalistick\u00fdch pozic, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u017edy tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee to v\u0161e byl \u00fasp\u011bch \u201eum\u011bn\u00ed dohody\u201c \u2013 v\u00fdsledek je p\u0159esn\u011b takov\u00fd, jak\u00fd od za\u010d\u00e1tku zam\u00fd\u0161lel.<\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu je Trumpovo poselstv\u00ed op\u011bt ultra-maximalistick\u00e9:\u00a0P\u0159ijm\u011bte<\/a>\u00a0m\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, nebo se p\u0159ipravte na komplexn\u00ed kampa\u0148, kter\u00e1 zcela rozlo\u017e\u00ed v\u00e1\u0161 [\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd] politick\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Trumpovi vyslanci p\u0159i ka\u017ed\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti posiluj\u00ed jeho postoj, \u017ee \u201ev\u0161echny mo\u017enosti z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed na stole\u201c (a\u010dkoli tato r\u00e9torika se stala pouh\u00fdm ot\u0159epan\u00fdm kli\u0161\u00e9).<\/p>\n

Trumpovy v\u00fdhr\u016f\u017eky v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu v\u0161ak vyvolaly v regionu z\u00e1chvaty \u00fazkosti a vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 \u2013\u00a0dokonce i Netanjahu<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed\u00a0dlouh\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdmi a krvav\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trumpovo pojet\u00ed v\u00e1lky je zalo\u017eeno na fantazii, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee manipulovat n\u011bjak\u00fdm bleskov\u00fdm \u201ein-boom-out\u201c trikem, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m USA neztrat\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky a jejich vojensk\u00e1 infrastruktura z\u016fstane nedot\u010dena. Zpr\u00e1vy od Trumpov\u00fdch pravideln\u00fdch \u201etelefonn\u00edch kamar\u00e1d\u016f\u201c \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee st\u00e1le tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee chce \u201ezaru\u010den\u00fd\u201c rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdsledek v \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 kr\u00e1tkou, n\u00e1siln\u011b ostrou, rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lku. Nechce ob\u011bti \u2013 zejm\u00e9na americk\u00e9 ob\u011bti. Nechce ani masov\u00e9 ob\u011bti nebo dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt.<\/p>\n

Plukovn\u00edk Larry Wilkerson\u00a0vysv\u011btluje<\/a>, \u017ee \u201erozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed\u201c je vojensk\u00fd term\u00edn. Znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee jste zas\u00e1hli nep\u0159\u00edtele tak tvrd\u011b, \u017ee nen\u00ed schopen reagovat. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, nazna\u010duje to, \u017ee Trump by cht\u011bl \u201ekousek\u201c podobn\u00fd tomu, kdy byl svr\u017een Maduro.<\/p>\n

Ve v\u00e1lce samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed nic zaru\u010deno. A povst\u00e1n\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, podn\u011bcovan\u00e9 extern\u011b vycvi\u010den\u00fdmi v\u00fdtr\u017en\u00edky, kte\u0159\u00ed \u010derpali z d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edru\u010dky \u201eManagement of Savagery\u201c (\u0158\u00edzen\u00ed brutality), selhalo.<\/p>\n

USA se do t\u00e9to lednov\u00e9 epizody nezapojily ve velk\u00e9m, proto\u017ee podle sv\u00e9 (chybn\u00e9) anal\u00fdzy se domn\u00edvaly, \u017ee budou moci jednodu\u0161e \u201epom\u00e1hat\u201c v\u00fdtr\u017en\u00edk\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed svrhnout vl\u00e1du \u2013 pomoc, kter\u00e1 by nevy\u017eadovala velkou vojenskou s\u00edlu.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161e se v\u0161ak zhroutilo. Uv\u011b\u0159ili propagand\u011b, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je \u201edomek z karet\u201c, kter\u00fd je p\u0159edur\u010den k implodov\u00e1n\u00ed pod n\u00e1porem extr\u00e9mn\u00edho n\u00e1sil\u00ed v\u00fdtr\u017en\u00edk\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se sna\u017e\u00ed vtisknout obraz rozpadaj\u00edc\u00ed se, ho\u0159\u00edc\u00ed budovy, z n\u00ed\u017e se jej\u00ed v\u016fdci a obyvatel\u00e9 sna\u017e\u00ed uniknout.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee po ne\u00fasp\u011bchu \u201epu\u010de\u201c \u2013 ale st\u00e1le s touhou zavd\u011b\u010dit se nal\u00e9hav\u00e9mu prezidentovi \u2013 se Pentagon rozhodl ospravedlnit a vysv\u011btlit ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd pu\u010d slovy gener\u00e1la Keana: \u201eMuseli jsme nasadit ve\u0161kerou tuto palebnou s\u00edlu<\/i>\u201c (proto\u017ee p\u016fvodn\u011b si mysleli, \u017ee si vysta\u010d\u00ed s m\u00e9n\u011b).<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed tedy m\u00e1me p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh, \u017ee \u201eUSA nasadily do St\u0159edn\u00edho v\u00fdchodu v\u00edce sil ne\u017e v prvn\u00ed v\u00e1lce v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, druh\u00e9 v\u00e1lce v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a v\u00e1lce v Ir\u00e1ku dohromady\u201c \u2013 co\u017e americk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd expert Will Schryverzesm\u011b\u0161\u0148uje jako \u201eabsolutn\u00ed nesmysl\u201c.<\/p>\n

Schryver\u00a0poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/a>: \u201eZat\u00edm jsem nevid\u011bl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pos\u00edlen\u00ed v regionu, kter\u00e9 by umo\u017e\u0148ovalo cokoli, co by se by\u0165 vzd\u00e1len\u011b bl\u00ed\u017eilo \u201arozhoduj\u00edc\u00edmu\u2018 \u00faderu proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b a jej\u00ed vl\u00e1d\u011b<\/i>\u201c.<\/p>\n

\u201eDo Jord\u00e1nska byla vysl\u00e1na letka F-15, n\u011bkolik tanker\u016f a n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek letadel C-17 s munic\u00ed a\/nebo protiletadlov\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my. To je v nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b skromn\u00fd obrann\u00fd \u0161t\u00edt proti dron\u016fm a \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdm st\u0159el\u00e1m. Rozhodn\u011b to nen\u00ed siln\u00fd \u00fadern\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dek… ani s letadlovou lod\u00ed USS Gerald Ford v sestav\u011b… Celkov\u011b by n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo mohlo pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vypustit ~350 raket Tomahawk. Ale proti obrovsk\u00e9 zemi, jako je \u00cdr\u00e1n, i kdyby v\u0161ech 350 zas\u00e1hlo \u201en\u011bco\u201c, ani zdaleka to nesta\u010d\u00ed k odzbrojen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f<\/i>\u201c.<\/p>\n

Schryver uzav\u00edr\u00e1:<\/p>\n

\u201eAmerick\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo se rozhodn\u011b NEODV\u00c1\u017d\u00cd do Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, ani do Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. A l\u00e9t\u00e1n\u00ed s tankovac\u00edmi letadly v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru by bylo extr\u00e9mn\u011b riskantn\u00ed. To omez\u00ed \u00fato\u010dn\u00e1 letadla letadlov\u00e9 lodi na jejich pln\u011b nalo\u017een\u00fd bojov\u00fd dosah ~600 mil \u2013 co\u017e zdaleka nesta\u010d\u00ed k z\u00e1sahu c\u00edl\u016f hluboko v \u00cdr\u00e1nu. A i kdyby vyslali p\u016fl tuctu B-2 a tucet B-52 \/ B-1B \u2026 v kontextu jednor\u00e1zov\u00e9ho \u00faderu to prost\u011b nen\u00ed moc. Je to jen p\u00e1r des\u00edtek dal\u0161\u00edch \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el, kter\u00e9 se p\u0159idaj\u00ed do mixu.<\/i>\u201c<\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tk\u00e9, n\u00e1siln\u00e9 a rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed \u201ev\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c (jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed WSJ), kter\u00e9 Trump chce \u2013 a kter\u00e9 se \u201edob\u0159e hod\u00ed\u201c doma \u2013 prost\u011b nen\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Araghchi varoval realisti\u010dt\u011bji:<\/p>\n

\u201eTot\u00e1ln\u00ed konfrontace bude jist\u011b chaotick\u00e1, zu\u0159iv\u00e1 a bude trvat mnohem, mnohem d\u00e9le, ne\u017e si Izrael a jeho z\u00e1stupci sna\u017e\u00ed namluvit B\u00edl\u00e9mu domu.<\/i>\u201c<\/p>\n

Uvnit\u0159 \u00cdr\u00e1nu,\u00a0poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/a>\u00a0Ibrahim Al-Amine, \u201eveden\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed z p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee konfrontace m\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout sv\u00e9 nejextr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed podoby. P\u0159\u00edpravy prob\u00edhaj\u00ed ve dvou rovin\u00e1ch: posilov\u00e1n\u00ed obrann\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed proti rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9mu \u00fatoku a zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo destabilizaci v zemi. Tento postoj je nyn\u00ed patrn\u00fd v cel\u00e9 zemi<\/i>\u201c.<\/p>\n

Je tedy mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee Trump op\u011bt couvne (tj. TACO \u2013 \u201eTrump Always Chickens Out\u201c)? Schryver tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed Venezuela. Nejedn\u00e1 se o finan\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lku \u201ecel a obchodu\u201c. Nejedn\u00e1 se o n\u011bjak\u00fd coup de th\u00e9\u00e2tre, ve kter\u00e9m lze Trumpovo \u201ecouvnut\u00ed\u201c vysv\u011btlit jako dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, jako sou\u010d\u00e1st jeho chytr\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu \u201eUm\u011bn\u00ed dohody\u201c.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00fd plnohodnotn\u00fd vojensk\u00fd konflikt (nikoli Madurov trik) je naopak \u201eviditeln\u00fd pro v\u0161echny\u201c, poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 Will Shryver, a bylo by mnohem t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed ho vysv\u011btlit, pokud by se zvrtl. P\u0159id\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed palebn\u00e9 s\u00edly rizika neodstran\u00ed. Nejlep\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed pro Trumpa je naj\u00edt si alternativn\u00ed \u201erozpt\u00fdlen\u00ed\u201c.<\/p>\n

I Izrael se zd\u00e1 m\u00edt pochybnosti. Ronan Bergman v Yedioth Ahoronot,\u00a0uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0zpr\u00e1vy izraelsk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdky, podle nich\u017e \u201ep\u0159ed t\u00fddnem a p\u016fl protesty v \u00cdr\u00e1nu dos\u00e1hly sv\u00e9ho vrcholu \u2026 [od t\u00e9 doby] se rozsah protest\u016f a demonstrac\u00ed dramaticky sn\u00ed\u017eil \u2026 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slo\u017eky a rozv\u011bdka se nedomn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee by re\u017eim byl v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, rozhodn\u011b ne v bezprost\u0159edn\u00edm nebezpe\u010d\u00ed \u2026 Hlavn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, zda Trump prop\u00e1sl spr\u00e1vn\u00fd okam\u017eik \u2013 a zda v\u016fbec n\u011bjak\u00fd spr\u00e1vn\u00fd okam\u017eik existoval \u2026<\/i>\u201c.<\/p>\n

\u201e[Nicm\u00e9n\u011b] p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, \u017ee v\u0161echny ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 USA nyn\u00ed p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed do Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, byly pln\u011b nasazeny \u2026 a p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, \u017ee by se k nim p\u0159ipojil Izrael se svou palebnou silou \u2026 Co by se stalo? Svrhli by vl\u00e1du \u2026? Jak\u00fd je optimistick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pro takovou ud\u00e1lost \u2026 bez voj\u00e1k\u016f na zemi, pouze s leteck\u00fdmi \u00fadery? \u2026 V praxi\u201c, uzav\u00edr\u00e1 Bergman, \u201etakov\u00fd re\u017eim nikdy nepadl v d\u016fsledku vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed intervence<\/i>\u201c.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ipome\u0148me, \u017ee podle\u00a0pr\u016fzkumu<\/a>\u00a0NY Times z tohoto t\u00fddne se m\u00edra nesouhlasu s Trumpem nyn\u00ed pohybuje na 47 %. Nehled\u011b na strategick\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kalkulace \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 reakce na jak\u00fdkoli \u00fatok, Trump rozhodn\u011b nepot\u0159ebuje chaotickou v\u00e1lku. M\u00e1 r\u00e1d, kdy\u017e jsou jeho \u201einiciativy\u201c kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 a \u010dist\u00e9 \u201ev\u00fdrazn\u00e9\u201c v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Minul\u00fd v\u00edkend, kdy\u017e se rozruch kolem Gr\u00f3nska zvrhl v hrozby a protiv\u00fdhr\u016f\u017eky cly, se americk\u00fd trh s dluhopisy dostal na pokraj kolapsu (stejn\u011b jako v den osvobozen\u00ed, kdy byla ozn\u00e1mena cla). \u201eCestou ven\u201c z rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se krize trhu s dluhopisy bylo Trumpovo \u201eTACO\u201c na cla souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s Gr\u00f3nskem uvalen\u00e1 na evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 nepodpo\u0159ily jeho p\u0159evzet\u00ed Gr\u00f3nska.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1pe Trump, \u017ee \u201ev\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nen\u00ed \u201eslam dunk\u201c? \u2013 v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se mohl rozhodnout pro TACO, doprov\u00e1zen\u00e9 drtiv\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi hrozbami v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 (mo\u017en\u00e1).<\/p>\n

\n

Will he, won\u2019t he \u2018TACO\u2019 on Iran?<\/a> vy\u0161el 28.1.2026 na Strategic Culture<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ch\u00e1pe Trump, \u017ee \u201ev\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c nad \u00cdr\u00e1nem nen\u00ed \u201eslam dunk\u201c? \u2013 v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80985,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,452,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98205"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98205\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}