{"id":98194,"date":"2026-01-30T00:44:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T23:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98194"},"modified":"2026-01-29T19:49:27","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T18:49:27","slug":"iran-spojene-staty-jake-jsou-mozne-scenare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/30\/iran-spojene-staty-jake-jsou-mozne-scenare\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1n-Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty: Jak\u00e9 jsou mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Moon z Alabamy<\/span><\/em>\u00a0p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1 sv\u016fj argumentovan\u00fd n\u00e1zor na sou\u010dasnou hrozbu v\u00e1lky mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a zem\u00ed, proti kter\u00e9 Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty shroma\u017e\u010fuj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>Moon z Alabamy<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, situace se velmi li\u0161\u00ed od p\u0159edchoz\u00ed takzvan\u00e9 \u201edvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c, kdy byl \u00cdr\u00e1n 13. \u010dervna 2025 p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b napaden, zat\u00edmco prob\u00edhala jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a byla napl\u00e1nov\u00e1na sch\u016fzka diplomat\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkdo \u0159ekne, \u017ee p\u0159edchoz\u00ed v\u00e1lku zah\u00e1jil sionistick\u00fd re\u017eim a \u017ee Donald Trump ji ukon\u010dil bombardov\u00e1n\u00edm c\u00edl\u016f v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a p\u0159ijet\u00edm omezen\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 odvety na americkou z\u00e1kladnu v Kataru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Realit\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u00edce odpov\u00edd\u00e1 to, \u017ee sionistick\u00fd \u00fatok proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu byl koordinov\u00e1n se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm se sionistick\u00fd re\u017eim zvrtl, p\u0159im\u011bl Trumpa k jeho odstoupen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes u\u017e o prvku p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed nejde ani pochyb: \u00cdr\u00e1n byl varov\u00e1n a p\u0159ipravil se na mo\u017enost nov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku\u00a0<\/span>ji\u017e den po<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Od konce \u201edvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed\u201c v\u00e1lky dodala do \u00cdr\u00e1nu vojenskou techniku \u200b\u200b\u0159ada n\u00e1kladn\u00edch letadel z B\u011bloruska, Ruska a \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n nab\u00eddky Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f k jedn\u00e1n\u00edm rovnou odm\u00edtl: \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da\u00a0<\/span>se hrozb\u011b nepodd\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fatoku, by\u0165 jen \u00fadajn\u011b symbolick\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, provede masivn\u00ed odvetu. Bombarduje sionistickou entitu, i kdy\u017e se do toho nebude p\u0159\u00edmo zapojovat po boku Ameri\u010dan\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

To d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl, proto\u017ee potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed americk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by byla tak\u00e9 a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00e1lkou v z\u00e1jmu koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed entity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moon z Alabamy<\/span><\/em>\u00a0zkoum\u00e1 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd pova\u017euje za pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zah\u00e1jen\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed americkou arm\u00e1dou, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 douf\u00e1, \u017ee Trump u\u010din\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed, a to odvol\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tuto druhou hypot\u00e9zu lze pova\u017eovat za platnou, pokud ch\u00e1peme, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva m\u011bla prob\u011bhnout po nepokoj\u00edch vyvolan\u00fdch agenty Mossadu a CIA, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem bylo oslabit re\u017eim do t\u00e9 m\u00edry, \u017ee by zem\u011b padla jako zral\u00e9 ovoce do rukou americk\u00fdch sil, a\u0165 u\u017e s p\u0159\u00edchodem sil sionistick\u00e9 entity, nebo bez n\u011bj.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato \u010d\u00e1st pl\u00e1nu selhala, co\u017e vylu\u010duje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 snadn\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a zvy\u0161uje riziko zna\u010dn\u00fdch americk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t nebo dokonce por\u00e1\u017eky.<\/span><\/p>\n

K tomu je t\u0159eba p\u0159idat riziko v dom\u00e1c\u00ed politice, kter\u00e9 by Trump podstoupil vyprovokov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mounadil al Djaza\u00efri<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

*<\/span><\/h3>\n

Trump chce vyhr\u00e1t \u2013 ale \u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed snadn\u00fd c\u00edl<\/span><\/h2>\n

Pan Goofy pr\u00e1v\u011b pronesl dal\u0161\u00ed hrozbu, kter\u00e1 se stala rutinou:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00a0<\/span>Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump \u2013\u00a0<\/span>28. ledna 2026, 12:12 UTC\u201c<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Obrovsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Postupuje rychle, s moc\u00ed, nad\u0161en\u00edm a odhodl\u00e1n\u00edm. Tato flotila, veden\u00e1 letadlovou lod\u00ed USS Abraham Lincoln, je v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ta, kter\u00e1 byla vysl\u00e1na do Venezuely. Stejn\u011b jako Venezuela je p\u0159ipravena rychle splnit svou misi, v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby i s n\u00e1sil\u00edm. Doufejme, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n rychle souhlas\u00ed s vyjedn\u00e1n\u00edm spravedliv\u00e9 a f\u00e9rov\u00e9 \u200b\u200bdohody \u2013 \u017d\u00c1DN\u00c9 JADERN\u00c9 ZBRAN\u011a \u2013 kter\u00e1 bude prosp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 pro v\u0161echny strany. \u010cas je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd; to je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9! Jak jsem ji\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u0159ekl: vyjedn\u00e1vejte! Odm\u00edtli a \u201eOperace P\u016flno\u010dn\u00ed kladivo\u201c vy\u00fastila v rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 \u0161kody v zemi. Dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fatok bude mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed! Nedovolte, aby se to stalo znovu. D\u011bkuji za va\u0161i pozornost. DONALD J.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0TRUMP<\/span><\/p>\n

Je dob\u0159e zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n si nep\u0159eje z\u00edskat jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Dokonce to stanov\u00ed i n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd dekret. \u00cdr\u00e1n vyjednal se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty jadernou dohodu, kter\u00e1 zaru\u010dovala, \u017ee nebude m\u00edt prost\u0159edky k v\u00fdrob\u011b jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Byl to Trump, kdo od t\u00e9to dohody jednostrann\u011b odstoupil b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, ani\u017e by se poradil s \u00cdr\u00e1nem nebo ostatn\u00edmi signat\u00e1\u0159i, v\u010detn\u011b Francie.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edme tedy, \u017ee jadern\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka nen\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem. T\u00fdk\u00e1 se obecn\u00e9ho protikoloni\u00e1ln\u00edho postoje \u00cdr\u00e1nu a konkr\u00e9tn\u011bji jeho neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho odporu v\u016f\u010di sionistick\u00e9 okupaci Palestiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00fdkoli pokus o n\u00e1silnou zm\u011bnu dlouhodob\u00e9 ideologick\u00e9 pozice \u00cdr\u00e1nu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sel\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da pos\u00edlila svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Na sv\u00fdch pozic\u00edch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0je flotila letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0(\u00a0<\/span>archiv<\/span><\/a>\u00a0), v Jord\u00e1nsku a Kataru bylo nasazeno n\u011bkolik letek americk\u00fdch a britsk\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek a syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany THAAD a Patriot byly um\u00edst\u011bny k pos\u00edlen\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. Americk\u00e9 torp\u00e9doborce jsou ve St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed na podporu izraelsk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. \u00datok proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by zahrnoval prim\u00e1rn\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u0159ely odp\u00e1len\u00e9 z oblast\u00ed mimo \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor. Zapojily by se do n\u011bj i americk\u00e9 bombard\u00e9ry dlouh\u00e9ho doletu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>prob\u00edhaj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n je v\u0161ak p\u0159ipraven. Pos\u00edlil sv\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 s\u00edly a sl\u00edbil, \u017ee je pou\u017eije proti americk\u00fdm pozic\u00edm na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a proti Izraeli jako odvetu za jak\u00fdkoli \u00fatok. Sl\u00edbil tak\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kter\u00fdm proch\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy. Mo\u017en\u00e9 je i selektivn\u00ed uzav\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by nap\u0159\u00edklad umo\u017enilo pr\u016fjezd tanker\u016fm sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edm do \u010c\u00edny. I \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 a dlouhodob\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed by v\u0161ak vyvolalo n\u00e1hl\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen ropy a plynu na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b a sn\u00ed\u017eilo by \u0161ance republik\u00e1n\u016f na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed arab\u0161t\u00ed spojenci Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b odm\u00edtli \u00fa\u010dastnit se jak\u00e9koli americk\u00e9 intervence proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty a Katar jasn\u011b uvedly, \u017ee nedovol\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou americkou operaci proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu vedenou z jejich \u00fazem\u00ed nebo p\u0159es jejich \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed americk\u00fd \u00fatok proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu v\u0161echny p\u0159ekvapil, jeliko\u017e jedn\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1le prob\u00edhala. Doprov\u00e1zela ho kampa\u0148 c\u00edlen\u00fdch atent\u00e1t\u016f a z\u00e1sah m\u00edstn\u00edch pozemn\u00edch t\u00fdm\u016f, kter\u00e9 sabotovaly \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by se takov\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed mohlo opakovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

V odvet\u011b za \u00fatok \u00cdr\u00e1n odp\u00e1lil drony a rakety sm\u011brem k Izraeli. Prvn\u00ed salvy zp\u016fsobily jen mal\u00e9 \u0161kody, ale b\u011bhem dvan\u00e1cti dn\u016f v\u00e1lky \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety pravideln\u011b zasahovaly citliv\u00e9 c\u00edle v Izraeli. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Izrael byly tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 slabin\u00e1m sv\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany nuceny konflikt ukon\u010dit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 reakce na nov\u00fd \u00fatok bude okam\u017eit\u00e1, p\u0159esn\u00e1 a \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1. B\u011bhem prvn\u00edch n\u011bkolika dn\u016f pom\u016f\u017ee americk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana omezit \u0161kody. Ale po t\u00fddnu nebo dvou obavy o dostupnost munice pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b povedou ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed po\u010dtu zachycen\u00fdch raket. Zranitelnosti Izraele \u2013 p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, chemick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl atd. \u2013 jsou dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00e9 a snadno zam\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9. Ohro\u017eeny jsou i americk\u00e9 lod\u011b v dosahu \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
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Turkmen\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
Hroz\u00edc\u00ed konflikt pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude tak kr\u00e1tk\u00fd jako ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed kampa\u0148. Mohl by snadno p\u0159er\u016fst ve vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lku. Na rozd\u00edl od \u00cdr\u00e1nu Izrael vlastn\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b a mohl by b\u00fdt naklon\u011bn je pou\u017e\u00edt. Vzhledem k velk\u00e9 rozloze a po\u010dtu obyvatel \u00cdr\u00e1nu v\u0161ak zem\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b utrp\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody, ale vyjde z n\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzn\u011b.<\/div>\n

Trump chce dal\u0161\u00ed symbolick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Jako obvykle za\u010dal s kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozbou v nad\u011bji, \u017ee z\u00edsk\u00e1 mal\u00fd \u00fastupek, kter\u00fd by mu umo\u017enil ustoupit. Pochybuji, \u017ee\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>je \u00cdr\u00e1n ochoten<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0mu splnit to, o co \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nem\u00e1 tedy jinou mo\u017enost ne\u017e ustoupit, ani\u017e by vyhr\u00e1l, nebo\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>vsadit v\u0161echno<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, v\u010detn\u011b sv\u00e9ho prezidentstv\u00ed, na eskalaci konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 se rozhodne spr\u00e1vn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

od\u00a0<\/span>Moon of Alabama<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Moon z Alabamy\u00a0p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1 sv\u016fj argumentovan\u00fd n\u00e1zor na sou\u010dasnou hrozbu v\u00e1lky mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a zem\u00ed, proti…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98195,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,220,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98194"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98194"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98194\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98196,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98194\/revisions\/98196"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}