{"id":98027,"date":"2026-01-29T00:11:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T23:11:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98027"},"modified":"2026-01-28T12:01:51","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T11:01:51","slug":"thomas-roper-polsko-si-musi-vybrat-mezi-usa-a-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/29\/thomas-roper-polsko-si-musi-vybrat-mezi-usa-a-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Polsko si mus\u00ed vybrat mezi USA a EU"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Polsko se od ostatn\u00edch zem\u00ed EU li\u0161\u00ed sv\u00fdm vnitropolitick\u00fdm rozd\u011blen\u00edm, kdy konzervativci podporuj\u00ed USA a liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 EU. Polsko si ale brzy bude muset vybrat sm\u011br, kter\u00fdm se vyd\u00e1.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b jsem \u010dasto zd\u016fraz\u0148oval, \u017ee rozpad EU je nyn\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd \u2013 alespo\u0148 ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m a\u017e dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu. Polsko je zem\u00ed, kde je toto rozd\u011blen\u00ed obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b patrn\u00e9. Jeden expert publikoval na toto t\u00e9ma\u00a0<\/span>anal\u00fdzu<\/span><\/u><\/a>\u00a0v rusk\u00e9 tiskov\u00e9 agentu\u0159e TASS, kterou jsem p\u0159elo\u017eil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tek p\u0159ekladu:<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Ztratilo orientaci? Dok\u00e1\u017ee Polsko p\u0159e\u010dkat bou\u0159i mezi Trumpem a EU?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Dmitrij Bunevitsch o vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch a vnit\u0159n\u00edch rozporech v polsk\u00e9 politice.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mal\u00e9 a st\u0159edn\u00ed zem\u011b se dnes \u010dasto ocitaj\u00ed nejen v k\u0159\u00ed\u017eov\u00e9 palb\u011b vnit\u0159n\u00edch konflikt\u016f, ale tak\u00e9 v sev\u0159en\u00ed rostouc\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi akt\u00e9ry. Polsko nen\u00ed v\u00fdjimkou. Nap\u0159\u00edklad ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 iniciativa americk\u00e9ho prezidenta na z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 rady, kter\u00e1 se setkala s vla\u017en\u00fdm p\u0159ijet\u00edm v EU a Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii, spustila dal\u0161\u00ed vlnu nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi polsk\u00fdm konzervativn\u00edm prezidentem Karolem Nawrockim a liber\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dou Donalda Tuska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rada sv\u00e1ru<\/span><\/h3>\n

Prezident, kter\u00fd si cht\u011bl s americk\u00fdm prezidentem vybudovat obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00fd vztah zalo\u017een\u00fd na sd\u00edlen\u00e9 ideologii, za\u010dal uva\u017eovat o pozv\u00e1n\u00ed USA do M\u00edrov\u00e9 rady. Z kancel\u00e1\u0159e premi\u00e9ra se okam\u017eit\u011b ozval rozho\u0159\u010den\u00fd protest: prezident nem\u011bl pr\u00e1vo \u010dinit takov\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed bez souhlasu parlamentu a vl\u00e1dy. Pot\u00e9 nastalo trapn\u00e9 ticho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pol\u00e1ci tak rozzlobili sv\u00e9 partnery v EU a nepoda\u0159ilo se jim zavd\u011b\u010dit se Donaldu Trumpovi. Nav\u00edc sv\u011btu znovu uk\u00e1zali sv\u00e9 vnitropolitick\u00e9 konflikty. Polsk\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed se nakonec pokusil probl\u00e9m zleh\u010dit s odkazem na chudobu. Polsko podle n\u011bj nem\u00e1 pot\u0159ebnou miliardu dolar\u016f na vstup do M\u00edrov\u00e9 rady.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato epizoda n\u00e1zorn\u011b ilustruje z\u00e1kladn\u00ed probl\u00e9m, kter\u00e9mu dnes Polsko \u010del\u00ed: ji\u017e tak k\u0159ehk\u00e1 politick\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha ve Var\u0161av\u011b se m\u016f\u017ee kdykoli zhroutit kv\u016fli st\u00e1le zjevn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu transatlantick\u00e9mu rozd\u011blen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 tele, Brusel a Washington<\/span><\/h3>\n

V posledn\u00edch desetilet\u00edch bylo Polsko tradi\u010dn\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1no za d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho spojence USA v Evrop\u011b a v jist\u00e9m smyslu slou\u017eilo Washingtonu jako \u201etrojsk\u00fd k\u016f\u0148\u201c v r\u00e1mci EU. Kritici v\u0161ak Var\u0161avu \u010dasto ozna\u010dovali za \u201eamerick\u00e9ho osla\u201c ve Star\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. B\u011bhem \u00e9ry latentn\u00ed konkurence mezi EU a USA Polsko vyu\u017e\u00edvalo sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 polohy k z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00fdch v\u00fdhod podporou americk\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f a sou\u010dasnou \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed v evropsk\u00fdch struktur\u00e1ch. S eskalac\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed se v\u0161ak situace zm\u011bnila.<\/span><\/p>\n

S Trumpov\u00fdm n\u00e1vratem do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu se do pop\u0159ed\u00ed dostal konflikt mezi EU a USA. V roce 2025 viceprezident J. D. Vance za\u00fato\u010dil na EU v Mnichov\u011b a v roce 2026 to sam\u00e9 u\u010dinil Trump v Davosu, kde \u00fato\u010dil nejen na jej\u00ed politiku, ale i na jej\u00ed hodnoty. Nejde jen o agresivn\u00ed r\u00e9toriku; Evropan\u00e9 se mnohem v\u00edce ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed americk\u00e9 ambice z\u00edskat kontrolu nad Gr\u00f3nskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco se Z\u00e1padoevropan\u00e9 sna\u017e\u00ed \u010delit ambic\u00edm Washingtonu, Pol\u00e1ci op\u011bt v\u00e1haj\u00ed. Nawrocki v podstat\u011b prohla\u0161uje, \u017ee ot\u00e1zka Gr\u00f3nska je bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed mezi USA a D\u00e1nskem, kterou by Koda\u0148 a Washington mohly vy\u0159e\u0161it samy. B\u00fdval\u00fd p\u0159edseda Rady EU Tusk tento postoj samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nesd\u00edl\u00ed: \u201eD\u00e1nsko se m\u016f\u017ee spolehnout na solidaritu cel\u00e9 Evropy; o tom nen\u00ed pochyb.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale pochybnosti existuj\u00ed, a jak\u00e9 pochybnosti! A nikdo jin\u00fd ne\u017e polsk\u00fd prezident je nevyjad\u0159uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve Var\u0161av\u011b samoz\u0159ejm\u011b doch\u00e1zelo k pravideln\u00fdm spor\u016fm o priorit\u00e1ch zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky zem\u011b. Co by m\u011blo m\u00edt p\u0159ednost: evropsk\u00e1 solidarita, nebo \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vztah\u201c s Washingtonem?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pol\u00e1ci se dokonce sna\u017eili vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 nejist\u00e9 situace k zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00fdm v\u00fdhod\u00e1m. Proameri\u010dt\u00ed konzervativci p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dili sv\u00e9 spojence v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee Polsko by se mohlo st\u00e1t ba\u0161tou atlantismu v Evrop\u011b, pokud by Washington podpo\u0159il ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed projekty, jako je Iniciativa t\u0159\u00ed mo\u0159\u00ed \u2013 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed inkarnace Mezimo\u0159\u00ed \u2013 a tak\u00e9 pomohl pos\u00edlit polskou arm\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tusk a liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 zase v Bruselu argumentovali, \u017ee Polsku by m\u011blo b\u00fdt p\u0159id\u011bleno co nejv\u00edce evropsk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f a \u017ee by m\u011blo b\u00fdt vst\u0159\u00edcn\u00e9 v ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch migrace, proto\u017ee jinak by se mohlo st\u00e1t v\u016fdcem protibruselsk\u00e9 revolty. Proevropsk\u00e9 Polsko by se naopak stalo nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm pil\u00ed\u0159em EU na jej\u00edm v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ilo by jej\u00ed vliv v postsov\u011btsk\u00e9m prostoru, nap\u0159\u00edklad prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm V\u00fdchodn\u00edho partnerstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato zjednodu\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed politika umo\u017enila nemilovan\u00e9mu polsk\u00e9mu teleti z\u00edskat si p\u0159\u00edze\u0148 jak Ameri\u010dan\u016f, tak Evropan\u016f. Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 a konzervativci ve Var\u0161av\u011b si navzdory vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 nevra\u017eivosti dok\u00e1zali zorganizovat ur\u010ditou d\u011blbu pr\u00e1ce, kter\u00e1 zajistila jejich z\u00e1jmy na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b. S n\u00e1stupem otev\u0159en\u00e9ho transatlantick\u00e9ho rozkolu se v\u0161ak Pol\u00e1ci mus\u00ed rozhodnout, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 nevyhnuteln\u00fd konflikt s jedn\u00edm z mocensk\u00fdch center \u2013 evropsk\u00fdm, nebo americk\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159i desetilet\u00ed na kolenou<\/span><\/h3>\n

Hloubka rozporu je patrn\u00e1 z ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho sporu na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch mezi Nawrockim a Tuskem ohledn\u011b Trumpova rozhovoru pro Fox News. Americk\u00fd prezident prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee spojenci NATO se b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu skr\u00fdvali za Ameri\u010dany. Nawrocki, kter\u00fd ned\u00e1vno s Trumpem v Davosu jednal o mo\u017enosti trval\u00e9 americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Polsku, zve\u0159ejnil uctiv\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek, v n\u011bm\u017e vzpomn\u011bl na 44 \u201estate\u010dn\u00fdch Pol\u00e1k\u016f\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed zem\u0159eli b\u011bhem mise NATO v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tusk prezidentovo prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b kritizoval a ve\u0159ejn\u011b ho vyzval, aby \u201eklekl, proto\u017ee se lid\u00e9 d\u00edvaj\u00ed\u201c. V tu chv\u00edli Nawrocki ztratil nervy a prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Tusk \u201eu\u017e t\u0159i desetilet\u00ed plaz\u00ed po kolenou z Berl\u00edna do Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ee\u201c. Podle Nawrockiho premi\u00e9r \u201eklekl i v Moskv\u011b\u201c. A to bylo podle n\u00e1zoru polsk\u00fdch konzervativc\u016f naprosto nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato o\u010dividn\u011b absurdn\u00ed a patetick\u00e1 h\u00e1dka mezi nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159edstaviteli zem\u011b nen\u00ed jen z\u00e1minkou k zesm\u011b\u0161\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed stavu politick\u00e9 kultury v Polsku. Nazna\u010duje tak\u00e9, \u017ee Pol\u00e1ci si postupn\u011b uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed nevyhnutelnost volby strany v eskaluj\u00edc\u00edm konfliktu mezi Washingtonem a Bruselem. Koneckonc\u016f, zaveden\u00ed pol\u0161t\u00ed liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 se v\u017edy sna\u017eili vyh\u00fdbat otev\u0159en\u00e9 kritice USA. Ano, up\u0159ednost\u0148ovali Brusel, ale nikdy nezpochyb\u0148ovali d\u016fle\u017eitost transatlantick\u00fdch vztah\u016f pro Var\u0161avu. Nyn\u00ed Tusk otev\u0159en\u011b provokuje prezidenta, kter\u00fd se sna\u017e\u00ed bagatelizovat negativn\u00ed dopad Trumpov\u00fdch v\u00fdrok\u016f o evropsk\u00fdch spojenc\u00edch. Ost\u0159\u00edlen\u00fd polsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r z\u0159ejm\u011b ji\u017e ch\u00e1pe, \u017ee konflikt mezi USA a EU je nevyhnuteln\u00fd, a svou stranu si u\u017e d\u00e1vno vybral.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedinou ot\u00e1zkou je, zda je na takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj p\u0159ipraveno samotn\u00e9 Polsko, jeho\u017e politici se v posledn\u00edch 30 letech skute\u010dn\u011b plazili po kolenou \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b do Bruselu a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b do Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zp\u00e1tky ve slep\u00e9 uli\u010dce<\/span><\/h3>\n

Opakovan\u00fdm zd\u016fraz\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm ho\u0159k\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho konfliktu mezi liber\u00e1ln\u00edm premi\u00e9rem a konzervativn\u00edm prezidentem se Pol\u00e1ci mo\u017en\u00e1 jen sna\u017e\u00ed odd\u00e1lit nevyhnuteln\u00e9. Konzervativci nad\u00e1le doufaj\u00ed, \u017ee ve sv\u00fdch rozhovorech s americk\u00fdmi z\u00e1stupci budou moci v\u0161echny probl\u00e9my sv\u00e9st na \u201ezatracen\u00e9 liber\u00e1ly\u201c. A liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 zase v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed Bruselu nad\u00e1le obvi\u0148uj\u00ed \u201etrumpistu Nawrockiho\u201c. D\u0159\u00edve \u010di pozd\u011bji se ale budou muset rozhodnout. A vzhledem k dynamice evropsko-americk\u00fdch vztah\u016f sp\u00ed\u0161e d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e pozd\u011bji.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pol\u00e1ci se op\u011bt dostali do strategick\u00e9 slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky. T\u00edm, \u017ee po roce 1991 u\u010dinili z boje proti Rusku j\u00e1dro sv\u00e9 politiky, se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 spol\u00e9hali na Brusel a Washington. Var\u0161ava nepochopila, \u017ee USA a EU sleduj\u00ed v Evrop\u011b vlastn\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 projekty, projekty, kter\u00e9 pouze demonstruj\u00ed jednotu v r\u00e1mci konceptu \u201etransatlantick\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padu\u201c v\u016f\u010di okoln\u00edmu sv\u011btu. V\u00fdvoj ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu zmatil mnoho polsk\u00fdch konzervativc\u016f. Na rozd\u00edl od jejich n\u00e1zoru to byla EU, kter\u00e1 konflikt dlouhodob\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b prodlou\u017eila, zat\u00edmco USA pod Trumpem vyj\u00e1d\u0159ily touhu po kompromisu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pol\u00e1ci se logicky stali rukojm\u00edmi rostouc\u00ed konfrontace mezi Evropany a Ameri\u010dany. Polsko by m\u011blo rozumn\u011b p\u0159ehodnotit tento p\u0159\u00edstup a alespo\u0148 se do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry pokusit normalizovat vztahy s Ruskem a z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159ehodnotit sv\u016fj vztah s Velkou Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed, zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 tradi\u010dn\u011b Var\u0161av\u011b p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ela zklam\u00e1n\u00ed pouze tehdy, kdy\u017e se sna\u017eila o spolupr\u00e1ci. To by Pol\u00e1k\u016fm poskytlo v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed prostor pro man\u00e9vrov\u00e1n\u00ed v troj\u00faheln\u00edku Rusko-USA-EU a usnadnilo by to tak\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci s dal\u0161\u00edmi kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdmi hr\u00e1\u010di, jako je \u010c\u00edna nebo Indie, s nimi\u017e spolupr\u00e1ce stagnuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je ale v sou\u010dasnosti nemo\u017en\u00e9, proto\u017ee sami Pol\u00e1ci vytvo\u0159ili situaci, kdy pouze od\u0161t\u011bpen\u00e9 strany, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b p\u011bstovan\u00e9, aby tradi\u010dn\u00ed liber\u00e1ln\u00ed a konzervativn\u00ed s\u00edly p\u016fsobily respektovan\u011bji, zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed pot\u0159ebu dialogu s Moskvou. Polsko dnes nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u011b vlivn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 by mohly \u201eobr\u00e1tit \u0161achovnici\u201c a vyv\u00e9st zemi ze strategick\u00e9 slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky, do kter\u00e9 ji liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 a konzervativci spole\u010dn\u011b uvrhli. Prezident a premi\u00e9r tedy nemaj\u00ed jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e se navz\u00e1jem ur\u00e1\u017eet na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konec p\u0159ekladu<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Polsko se od ostatn\u00edch zem\u00ed EU li\u0161\u00ed sv\u00fdm vnitropolitick\u00fdm rozd\u011blen\u00edm, kdy konzervativci podporuj\u00ed USA a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98028,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,41,2181,31,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98027"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}