{"id":98002,"date":"2026-01-28T04:54:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T03:54:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=98002"},"modified":"2026-01-28T04:54:48","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T03:54:48","slug":"chysta-se-washington-prekrocit-rubikon-s-iranem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/28\/chysta-se-washington-prekrocit-rubikon-s-iranem\/","title":{"rendered":"Chyst\u00e1 se Washington p\u0159ekro\u010dit Rubikon s \u00cdr\u00e1nem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Skupiny letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed, tajn\u00e9 rozhovory s Izraelem a psychologick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nazna\u010duj\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohlo zm\u011bnit podobu Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu<\/h3>\n

Tento t\u00fdden se z\u0159ejm\u011b stane jedn\u00edm z nejintenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch obdob\u00ed v pr\u016fb\u011bhu americko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 konfrontace. Kombinace vojensk\u00fdch, politick\u00fdch a psychologick\u00fdch faktor\u016f nazna\u010duje alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed mo\u017enost p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch dnech.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm ukazatelem je, \u017ee vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpravy na potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fader byly dokon\u010deny. V ned\u011bli se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee \u00fadern\u00e1 skupina letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed USS Abraham Lincoln americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva vstoupila do oblasti Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a nach\u00e1z\u00ed se ve vzd\u00e1lenosti, ze kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee zah\u00e1jit \u00fadery na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. Z vojensk\u00e9ho hlediska tento posun znamen\u00e1, \u017ee USA p\u0159ech\u00e1zej\u00ed z f\u00e1ze politick\u00e9ho tlaku do f\u00e1ze opera\u010dn\u00ed pohotovosti, kde by rozhodnut\u00ed o \u00faderu mohlo b\u00fdt provedeno b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika hodin.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reakce Teher\u00e1nu byla siln\u00e1 a jednozna\u010dn\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed varovalo p\u0159ed vysokou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed vypuknut\u00ed v\u00e1lky ka\u017edou chv\u00edli a prohl\u00e1silo, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePersk\u00fd z\u00e1liv by mohl explodovat\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 24 hodin. Nejde jen o emocion\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u00e9toriku, ale o jasn\u00fd postoj: \u00cdr\u00e1n signalizuje, \u017ee americk\u00fd \u00fader bude vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako za\u010d\u00e1tek tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky, nikoli jako omezen\u00e1 operace. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou ve zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 pohotovosti a zem\u011b se p\u0159ipravuje na nejhor\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm znakem p\u0159\u00edprav na vojenskou reakci jsou rozhovory mezi USA a Izraelem za zav\u0159en\u00fdmi dve\u0159mi. Podle izraelsk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f admir\u00e1l Brad Cooper, velitel americk\u00e9ho \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edho velen\u00ed, vedl p\u0159es noc jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s vysok\u00fdmi p\u0159edstaviteli Izraelsk\u00fdch obrann\u00fdch sil (IDF). B\u011bhem t\u011bchto rozhovor\u016f Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 nazna\u010dili, \u017ee a\u010dkoli ohledn\u011b \u00fatoku nebylo p\u0159ijato \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 kone\u010dn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed, ve\u0161ker\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpravy na n\u011bj byly dokon\u010deny. Izrael\u0161t\u00ed velitel\u00e9 mezit\u00edm jednaj\u00ed s p\u0159edpokladem, \u017ee k \u00fatoku m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt bezprost\u0159edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed d\u016fraz byl kladen na v\u00fdb\u011br c\u00edl\u016f. Izrael o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed americk\u00e9 \u00fadery se zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed spojen\u00e1 se strukturami Isl\u00e1msk\u00fdch revolu\u010dn\u00edch gard (IRGC) a Bas\u00edd\u017e. Tento p\u0159\u00edstup si klade za c\u00edl sn\u00ed\u017eit pravd\u011bpodobnost okam\u017eit\u00e9ho \u00faderu na \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vl\u00e1du a, jak se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Jeruzal\u00e9m\u011b, omezit rozsah jak\u00fdchkoli odvetn\u00fdch akc\u00ed ze strany Teher\u00e1nu. Pokud jde o takov\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty, neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 jistota. V Teher\u00e1nu IRGC nen\u00ed jen vojenskou silou, ale z\u00e1kladn\u00edm kamenem cel\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu; \u00fatoky na ni by nevyhnuteln\u011b byly interpretov\u00e1ny jako \u00fatoky na samotn\u00fd st\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee teprve p\u0159ed t\u00fddnem americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump m\u00edrn\u011b zm\u00edrnil svou r\u00e9toriku. Vyj\u00e1d\u0159il touhu vyhnout se konfliktu, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 uvedl, \u017ee situaci bedliv\u011b sleduje a \u017ee \u201e\u00a0pro jistotu\u201c m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k \u00cdr\u00e1nu\u00a0<\/em><\/span>\u201evelk\u00e1 flotila\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0americk\u00fdch lod\u00ed .\u00a0Toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed je p\u0159\u00edkladem Trumpova charakteristick\u00e9ho rozporupln\u00e9ho chov\u00e1n\u00ed: na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b prohla\u0161uje, \u017ee se nechce pou\u0161t\u011bt do v\u00e1lky, zat\u00edmco na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b projevuje ochotu pou\u017e\u00edt s\u00edlu bez dal\u0161\u00edho varov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed efekt emocion\u00e1ln\u00ed houpa\u010dky a udr\u017euje v\u0161echny v nejistot\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 prob\u00edh\u00e1 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 informa\u010dn\u00ed kampa\u0148. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia a propagandistick\u00e9 agentury za\u010daly aktivn\u011b formovat narativ o\u00a0<\/span>\u201ehumanit\u00e1rn\u00ed katastrof\u011b\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jen 8. a 9. ledna mohlo b\u00fdt na ulic\u00edch zabito a\u017e 36 500 lid\u00ed. Takov\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla jsou zjevn\u011b absurdn\u00ed: to znamen\u00e1 \u00famrt\u00ed asi deseti lid\u00ed za minutu. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee tyto narativy slou\u017e\u00ed politick\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu, poskytuj\u00ed emocion\u00e1ln\u00ed ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed pro razantn\u00ed reakci a budou pou\u017eity jako argumenty pro\u00a0<\/span>\u201eopr\u00e1vn\u011bnou intervenci\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Donald Trump opakovan\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee je p\u0159ipraven podpo\u0159it \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 protestuj\u00edc\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u00e1siln\u00e9ho potla\u010den\u00ed demonstrac\u00ed. Pro shrnut\u00ed, protesty v \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u016fvodn\u011b za\u010daly 28. prosince uprost\u0159ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e9 nespokojenosti. 16. ledna v\u0161ak Trump svou r\u00e9toriku zm\u00edrnil a prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee se rozhodl proti \u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n pot\u00e9, co Teher\u00e1n prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci protest\u016f nebudou popraveni. Koncem ledna \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abb\u00e1s Arag\u010d\u010d\u00ed ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee b\u011bhem protest\u016f zem\u0159elo 3 117 lid\u00ed, co\u017e znovu rozpoutalo kampa\u0148 obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pozornost je v\u011bnov\u00e1na mo\u017en\u00e9mu datu \u00fatoku. Existuje vysok\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee by k n\u011bmu mohlo doj\u00edt 1. \u00fanora nebo kr\u00e1tce p\u0159ed t\u00edmto datem. Toto datum m\u00e1 symbolickou v\u00e1hu \u2013 n\u011bco, co Trump obvykle zva\u017euje p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed. 1. \u00fanora si p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1me v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1vratu ajatoll\u00e1ha R\u00faholl\u00e1ha Chomejn\u00edho do \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159ed 46 lety, kdy vyhl\u00e1sil vznik nov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a fakticky ukon\u010dil monarchii. Pro Isl\u00e1mskou republiku m\u00e1 toto datum zna\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdznam a je z\u00e1kladn\u00edm kamenem legitimity re\u017eimu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dader v tuto chv\u00edli by m\u011bl nejen vojensk\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, ale tak\u00e9 hlubokou ideologickou v\u00e1hu. Mohl by b\u00fdt interpretov\u00e1n jako pokus o podkop\u00e1n\u00ed symbolick\u00e9ho z\u00e1kladu isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a z\u00e1rove\u0148 povzbuzen\u00ed t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed usiluj\u00ed o obnoven\u00ed monarchie. Nen\u00ed n\u00e1hoda, \u017ee Trump d\u0159\u00edve vyj\u00e1d\u0159il podporu protestuj\u00edc\u00edm, kte\u0159\u00ed m\u00e1vali vlajkami reprezentuj\u00edc\u00edmi \u00edr\u00e1nskou monarchii.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee se dnes v\u0161ichni neptaj\u00ed, zda k \u00fatoku dojde, ale jak bude vypadat. Bude to rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 operace, \u010di nikoliv? A zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed se USA na centra rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, nebo se omez\u00ed na symbolickou demonstraci s\u00edly? V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je v s\u00e1zce extr\u00e9mn\u011b mnoho. Jak\u00e1koli p\u0159ijat\u00e1 akce by mohla spustit kask\u00e1du reakc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by bylo obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 zadr\u017eet. Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen m\u00e1lo prostoru pro \u00fastup. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed okam\u017eik se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, po kter\u00e9m by Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod mohl vstoupit do f\u00e1ze nekontrolovateln\u00e9 eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 velmi nejednozna\u010dn\u00e1. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b r\u016fzn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zva\u017euj\u00ed \u00fatok. Na druhou stranu nelze vylou\u010dit mo\u017enost, \u017ee Trump na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli zm\u011bn\u00ed kurz. Koneckonc\u016f, jeho logika je dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00e1: vyv\u00edjet maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed tlak, aby donutil \u00cdr\u00e1n k vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed; tento tlak v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed nazna\u010dovat vojenskou eskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraelsk\u00e1 pravicov\u00e1 televize Channel 14 informuje, \u017ee podle v\u00fdsledk\u016f ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 sch\u016fzky velitele CENTCOM admir\u00e1la Brada Coopera, n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu IDF gener\u00e1lporu\u010d\u00edka Eyala Zamira a dal\u0161\u00edch vysoce postaven\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b neexistuje potvrzen\u00e9 datum \u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n. USA budou pot\u0159ebovat \u010das na vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch sil na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, a\u010dkoli jsou v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby p\u0159ipraveny k okam\u017eit\u00e9 akci. Washington si klade za c\u00edl prov\u00e9st\u00a0<\/span>\u201e\u010distou, rychlou a n\u00e1kladov\u011b efektivn\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0operaci proti t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou podle americk\u00e9ho narativu zapojeni do n\u00e1sil\u00ed proti civilist\u016fm a protestuj\u00edc\u00edm. Krom\u011b toho prob\u00edhaj\u00ed tak\u00e9 diskuse o zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti se Trumpova prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed jev\u00ed jako protich\u016fdn\u00e1; zmi\u0148uje nahromad\u011bn\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fdch americk\u00fdch sil pobl\u00ed\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1nu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 vyjad\u0159uje d\u016fv\u011bru v ochotu Teher\u00e1nu zapojit se do dialogu. To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed matouc\u00ed situaci. \u00cdr\u00e1n zase zaujal tvrd\u00fd r\u00e9torick\u00fd postoj. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed m\u00e9dia informuj\u00ed, \u017ee velitel \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva, kontradmir\u00e1l \u0160ahram Ir\u00e1n\u00ed, prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee arm\u00e1da zem\u011b je pln\u011b bojeschopn\u00e1, a poznamenal, \u017ee kombinace spirituality a vojensk\u00e9 odbornosti je kl\u00ed\u010dem k odolnosti a \u00fasp\u011bchu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump mezit\u00edm nad\u00e1le stup\u0148uje informa\u010dn\u00ed tlak a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost pobl\u00ed\u017e \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch hranic p\u0159evy\u0161uje s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 byly rozm\u00edst\u011bny u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Venezuely. V pond\u011bl\u00ed se setkal s velitelem americk\u00e9ho letectva. Atmosf\u00e9ra je z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b napjat\u00e1, ale je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee by se dala rychle uklidnit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je nezbytn\u00e9 zv\u00e1\u017eit i vnit\u0159n\u00ed situaci v USA. Ud\u00e1losti v Minnesot\u011b, kter\u00e9 mnoz\u00ed ozna\u010duj\u00ed za chaotick\u00e9 a sv\u011bd\u010d\u00edc\u00ed o krizi \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k rostouc\u00edmu pocitu nestability. Po Venezuele \u010del\u00ed Trump \u0159ad\u011b nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00fdch a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b protich\u016fdn\u00fdch ot\u00e1zek \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Kanady a Gr\u00f3nska. Nejist\u00e1 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 i situace kolem Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpovo prvn\u00ed prezidentsk\u00e9 funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed ilustruje charakteristick\u00fd vzorec: kdy\u017e se setk\u00e1 s odporem v jedn\u00e9 oblasti, m\u00e1 tendenci rychle p\u0159esunout pozornost na jinou. Vid\u011bli jsme to v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Venezuely, Kuby a Severn\u00ed Koreje. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Severn\u00ed Koreje n\u00e1sledovala po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed eskalace osobn\u00ed sch\u016fzka s v\u016fdcem Kim \u010cong-unem a dramatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna t\u00f3nu. Takov\u00fd styl do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed Trumpovo obchodn\u00ed sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed a vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dojem chaotick\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z t\u011bchto d\u016fvod\u016f nem\u016f\u017eeme zcela vylou\u010dit mo\u017enost, \u017ee k \u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n nikdy nedojde. Izrael si tak\u00e9 uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee se s \u00cdr\u00e1nem nem\u016f\u017ee postavit s\u00e1m a nevstoup\u00ed do v\u00e1lky bez p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho zapojen\u00ed USA. Pozemn\u00ed operace nav\u00edc v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nep\u0159ipad\u00e1 v \u00favahu \u2013 a bez n\u00ed je dosa\u017een\u00ed zm\u011bny re\u017eimu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9. Na takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nen\u00ed nikdo realisticky p\u0159ipraven. Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 jistota a v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci je to hlavn\u00ed intrika.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Farhada Ibragimova<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na Ekonomick\u00e9 fakult\u011b Univerzity RUDN, hostuj\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na \u00dastavu soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd Rusk\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 akademie n\u00e1rodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Farhad<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Skupiny letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed, tajn\u00e9 rozhovory s Izraelem a psychologick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nazna\u010duj\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohlo…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98003,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98002"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98002"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98002\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98003"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}