{"id":97876,"date":"2026-01-27T00:27:27","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T23:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=97876"},"modified":"2026-01-26T17:05:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T16:05:10","slug":"era-osy-nova-mapa-zapadni-asie-po-potope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/27\/era-osy-nova-mapa-zapadni-asie-po-potope\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9ra Osy: Nov\u00e1 mapa z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie po \u201ePotop\u011b\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Operace Z\u00e1plava al-Aks\u00e1 nikdy nebyla jen v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm aktem. Naru\u0161ila fas\u00e1du region\u00e1ln\u00ed stability, odhalila mocensk\u00e9 zlomy a urychlila rozkol mezi \u010dty\u0159mi soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00edmi p\u00f3ly, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed tvar z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201ePovode\u0148 v al-Aks\u00e1 byla preventivn\u00edm \u00faderem \u2013 ur\u010den\u00fdm k naru\u0161en\u00ed americko-sionistick\u00e9ho projektu v tomto regionu.\u201c<\/span><\/em>
\n\u2013 Ihsan Ataya, p\u0159edstavitel Palestinsk\u00e9ho isl\u00e1msk\u00e9ho d\u017eih\u00e1du (PIJ), pro\u00a0<\/span>The Cradle<\/span>\u00a0, 28. \u0159\u00edjna 2023<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii se doned\u00e1vna dal vysv\u011btlit star\u00fdmi kategoriemi: izolovan\u00e9 konflikty, bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed rivalita nebo z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. To u\u017e ale neplat\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Operace Al-Aks\u00e1, p\u0159i n\u00ed\u017e do\u0161lo 7. \u0159\u00edjna 2023 k povodn\u00edm, p\u0159edstavovala strategick\u00fd zlom, kter\u00fd p\u0159edefinoval pravidla odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, legitimity a p\u0159ijateln\u00e9ho pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly. Od toho dne se z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie prom\u011bnila v jedno, vysoce propojen\u00e9 boji\u0161t\u011b, kde se hranice rozmaz\u00e1vaj\u00ed, frontov\u00e9 linie p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00ed a krize se ji\u017e nevyskytuj\u00ed izolovan\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161echno od 7. \u0159\u00edjna fungovalo v r\u00e1mci nov\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 rovnice. Velmoci sp\u011b\u0161n\u011b upravily sv\u00e9 priority, spojenci i protivn\u00edci p\u0159ekreslili sv\u00e9 linie a zn\u00e1m\u00e1 ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed se za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed rozpadat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obvykl\u00e9 z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b \u2013 diplomatick\u00e1 podpora, ekonomick\u00e9 tlakov\u00e9 ventily, dokonce i vojensk\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 erodovaly. Region ji\u017e nen\u00ed mozaikou odd\u011blen\u00fdch ohnisek, ale nest\u00e1l\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem, v n\u011bm\u017e jak\u00e1koli jiskra \u2013 incident na hranic\u00edch, obchodn\u00ed man\u00e9vr nebo diplomatick\u00fd posun \u2013 m\u016f\u017ee spustit \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci. Jsme sv\u011bdky aktivn\u00edho p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy sil v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cty\u0159i osy, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd hegemon<\/span><\/h3>\n

J\u00e1drem t\u00e9to transformace je vznik \u010dty\u0159 odli\u0161n\u00fdch center moci: \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Turecka, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a izraelsk\u00e9ho okupa\u010dn\u00edho st\u00e1tu. Ka\u017ed\u00e9 z nich vyv\u00edj\u00ed vliv na v\u00edce \u00farovn\u00edch, ale \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z nich nebylo schopno tento vliv prom\u011bnit v nespornou dominanci. M\u00edsto toho je region p\u0159itahov\u00e1n \u010dty\u0159mi gravita\u010dn\u00edmi silami, kter\u00e9 utv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed, konflikty a narativy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie disponuj\u00ed energetick\u00fdmi zdroji, kter\u00e9 sahaj\u00ed i za hranice z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie. \u00cdr\u00e1n se tak\u00e9 t\u011b\u0161\u00ed loajalit\u011b \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9ho obyvatelstva a udr\u017euje dlouhodob\u00e1 partnerstv\u00ed s hnut\u00edmi odporu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turecko a \u00cdr\u00e1n jsou velk\u00e9, lidnat\u00e9 st\u00e1ty s hlubok\u00fdmi imperi\u00e1ln\u00edmi ko\u0159eny, strategickou geografi\u00ed a rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi schopnostmi. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie \u2013 a v men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e i Turecko \u2013 disponuje tak\u00e9 zna\u010dnou m\u011bkkou moc\u00ed zalo\u017eenou na n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 a kulturn\u00ed legitimit\u011b. Izrael zase z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159edn\u00edm vojensk\u00fdm a technologick\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dem, podporovan\u00fdm \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm vztahem\u201c s Washingtonem a neofici\u00e1ln\u011b potvrzen\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm arzen\u00e1lem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z t\u011bchto akt\u00e9r\u016f v\u0161ak nem\u00e1 v\u0161echny karty v ruce. Jejich sou\u010dasn\u00fd vzestup zabr\u00e1nil vzniku region\u00e1ln\u00edho hegemona. M\u00edsto toho jsou uv\u011bzn\u011bni v k\u0159ehk\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1ze formovan\u00e9 histori\u00ed, ideologi\u00ed a ambicemi a navz\u00e1jem se efektivn\u011b blokuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto \u010dty\u0159i osy nefunguj\u00ed jako form\u00e1ln\u00ed aliance. Jsou to prom\u011bnliv\u00e9 sf\u00e9ry vlivu, kter\u00e9 ur\u010duj\u00ed, jak se st\u00e1ty, hnut\u00ed a dokonce i trhy sjednocuj\u00ed. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 nen\u00ed form\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010dlenstv\u00ed, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e s\u00edla p\u0159ita\u017elivosti \u2013 schopnost vynucovat rozhodnut\u00ed, nab\u00edzet ochranu, ukl\u00e1dat n\u00e1klady nebo formovat narativy. A v nest\u00e1l\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch 7. \u0159\u00edjna se tato s\u00edla p\u0159ita\u017elivosti jen zes\u00edlila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato struktura existuje, proto\u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z t\u011bchto akt\u00e9r\u016f nem\u00e1 rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdhodu. Nav\u00edc nejsou stejn\u011b akceptov\u00e1ni. Samotn\u00fd vliv nesta\u010d\u00ed; jedna mocnost mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ochotna jednat a ostatn\u00ed mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ochotni p\u0159ijmout jej\u00ed veden\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd st\u00e1t v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 historii z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie nekombinoval v\u0161echny t\u0159i vlastnosti dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouho na to, aby se stal hegemonem. M\u00edsto toho man\u00e9vruj\u00ed, aby si zajistili sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed nebo zabr\u00e1nili soupe\u0159\u016fm v z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed dominance. Tato konkurence se vyost\u0159uje v dob\u00e1ch ot\u0159es\u016f \u2013 b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, invaze do Ir\u00e1ku v roce 2003, Arabsk\u00e9ho jara a nyn\u00ed v rozkolu po operaci Al-Aks\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina st\u00e1t\u016f v regionu se nyn\u00ed to\u010d\u00ed kolem jedn\u00e9 z t\u011bchto \u010dty\u0159 os. Rij\u00e1d vede mnoho arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, s v\u00fdjimkou Kataru a SAE. Ab\u00fa Zab\u00ed, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d v \u201enormaliza\u010dn\u00ed ose\u201c, se v d\u016fsledku toho p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil k izraelsk\u00e9mu t\u00e1boru. Hnut\u00ed odporu se orientuj\u00ed proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Katar je Turecku p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b naklon\u011bn \u2013 tento vztah posiluje i jejich spole\u010dn\u00e1 podpora hnut\u00ed s vazbami na Muslimsk\u00e9 bratrstvo. Egypt, kdysi samostatn\u00e1 mocnost, se z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti dostal pod sa\u00fadsk\u00fd vliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Boj o ji\u017en\u00ed Jemen je mocenskou hrou v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Soupe\u0159en\u00ed mezi Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a SAE bylo dlouho vykreslov\u00e1no jako rivalita v r\u00e1mci vnit\u0159n\u00edho kruhu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 dva partne\u0159i s odli\u0161nou taktikou, ale bez protich\u016fdn\u00fdch viz\u00ed. Tento obraz ji\u017e neplat\u00ed. Normalizace vztah\u016f mezi SAE a Tel Avivem prom\u011bnila Ab\u00fa Zab\u00ed v katalyz\u00e1tor izraelsk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed integrace \u2013 nejen v konkurenta Rij\u00e1du, ale i v kan\u00e1l pro izraelskou expanzi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto p\u0159eskupen\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ilo citlivost Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie. I kdy\u017e se Rij\u00e1d m\u016f\u017ee takticky p\u0159ekr\u00fdvat s Izraelem, neakceptuje Tel Aviv jako strategick\u00e9ho arbitra. Probl\u00e9mem nejsou samotn\u00e9 emir\u00e1tsko-izraelsk\u00e9 vztahy, ale jejich funk\u010dn\u00ed hloubka \u2013 f\u00faze emir\u00e1tsk\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu a logistiky s izraelsk\u00fdmi bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi znalostmi a glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi s\u00edt\u011bmi. Rij\u00e1d se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee tato kombinace by mohla prom\u00edtnout moc do sf\u00e9ry vlivu samotn\u00e9 Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nal\u00e9hav\u00e9 v ji\u017en\u00edm Jemenu, kde by ambice Ab\u00fa Zab\u00ed mohly Tel Avivu poskytnout p\u0159\u00edtomnost na ji\u017en\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie. Rij\u00e1d to nevn\u00edm\u00e1 jako region\u00e1ln\u00ed spor, ale jako p\u0159\u00edmou hrozbu pro svou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 pozice je jasn\u00e1: Taktick\u00e9 p\u0159ekr\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed s Izraelem je do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry tolerovateln\u00e9, ale osa SAE-Izrael v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu je \u010dervenou lini\u00ed. Toto p\u0159ekro\u010dilo hranici rivality v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Nyn\u00ed se jedn\u00e1 o st\u0159et dvou r\u016fzn\u00fdch region\u00e1ln\u00edch viz\u00ed \u2013 jedn\u00e9 zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na omezen\u00ed expanze Izraele a druh\u00e9 na umo\u017en\u011bn\u00ed jeho konsolidace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Region\u00e1ln\u00ed projekt Tel Avivu ohro\u017euje p\u0159\u00e1tele i nep\u0159\u00e1tele<\/span><\/h3>\n

Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed varoval zesnul\u00fd gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk Hizball\u00e1hu Sajjid Hasan Nasrall\u00e1h, \u017ee oslaben\u00ed Osy odporu by nakonec ohrozilo v\u0161echny st\u00e1ty v regionu \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 jsou spojenci Washingtonu. V projevu z roku 2013 Nasrall\u00e1h prohl\u00e1sil:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePokud padne S\u00fdrie, Palestina bude ztracena \u2013 a s n\u00ed i odpor v Gaze, na Z\u00e1padn\u00edm b\u0159ehu Jord\u00e1nu a v Jeruzal\u00e9m\u011b. Pokud S\u00fdrie padne do rukou USA, Izraele a takf\u00edrist\u016f, n\u00e1\u0161 region vstoup\u00ed do temn\u00e9 a brut\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00e9ry. To je n\u00e1\u0161 odhad.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

O deset let pozd\u011bji region\u00e1ln\u00ed akce Tel Avivu toto varov\u00e1n\u00ed potvrzuj\u00ed. Izrael se ji\u017e neomezuje na jednu frontu. Koordinovan\u011b jedn\u00e1 v Gaze, Libanonu, S\u00fdrii, Ir\u00e1ku, Jemenu, S\u00fad\u00e1nu, Som\u00e1lsku, Libyi a \u00cdr\u00e1nu a s regionem zach\u00e1z\u00ed jako s jedin\u00fdm v\u00e1l\u010di\u0161t\u011bm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti \u2013 ne\u00fasp\u011bchy odboje, rozpad S\u00fdrie, roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed izraelsk\u00fdch operac\u00ed \u2013 jasn\u011b uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee Tel Aviv nerespektuje hranice, a to ani hranice sp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00fdch vl\u00e1d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro \u00cdr\u00e1n je tato hrozba p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 a existen\u010dn\u00ed. Izrael\u0161t\u00ed politici otev\u0159en\u011b prohla\u0161uj\u00ed, \u017ee zni\u010den\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky je jejich strategick\u00fdm c\u00edlem. Tohoto c\u00edle bylo dosa\u017eeno prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm atent\u00e1t\u016f, sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed, \u201ebarevn\u00fdch revoluc\u00ed\u201c, z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f a nyn\u00ed i otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Turecko je tato hrozba strategick\u00e9 povahy. Izrael zpochyb\u0148uje vliv Ankary v S\u00fdrii a v\u00fdchodn\u00edm St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed a prosazuje alternativn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed trasy, kter\u00e9 obch\u00e1zej\u00ed tureckou geografii. Zejm\u00e9na S\u00fdrie se stala ar\u00e9nou, kde se izraelsk\u00e1 svoboda jedn\u00e1n\u00ed st\u0159et\u00e1v\u00e1 s tureck\u00fdmi bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi prioritami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii je probl\u00e9m struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed. Pokus Tel Avivu o p\u0159eps\u00e1n\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch pravidel ohro\u017euje autonomii Rij\u00e1du a jeho n\u00e1rok na v\u016fd\u010d\u00ed postaven\u00ed. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed architektu\u0159e \u2013 \u0159\u00e1du, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je upevnit izraelskou dominanci a odsunout arabsk\u00e9 mocnosti do pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch rol\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od 7. \u0159\u00edjna Tel Aviv roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il sv\u016fj opera\u010dn\u00ed reperto\u00e1r: preventivn\u00ed \u00fadery, kampan\u011b na v\u00edce front\u00e1ch a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. To zv\u00fd\u0161ilo vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby u v\u0161ech hlavn\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

To neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee se formuje nov\u00e1 protiizraelsk\u00e1 aliance. Znamen\u00e1 to v\u0161ak, \u017ee v\u0161ichni akt\u00e9\u0159i \u2013 s v\u00fdjimkou \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd pova\u017euje Izrael za inherentn\u00edho nep\u0159\u00edtele \u2013 nyn\u00ed vn\u00edmaj\u00ed izraelskou expanzi jako omezen\u00ed vlastn\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho man\u00e9vrovac\u00edho prostoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e otev\u0159en\u00e1 v\u00e1lka je strategick\u00fd posun, kter\u00fd by mohl jednomu akt\u00e9rovi umo\u017enit p\u0159edefinovat pravidla zapojen\u00ed pro cel\u00fd region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohamad Hasan Sweidan<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Operace Z\u00e1plava al-Aks\u00e1 nikdy nebyla jen v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm aktem. Naru\u0161ila fas\u00e1du region\u00e1ln\u00ed stability, odhalila mocensk\u00e9 zlomy…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":97877,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1854,10466],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97876"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97876\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}