{"id":97437,"date":"2026-01-22T00:12:50","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T23:12:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=97437"},"modified":"2026-01-21T11:11:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T10:11:23","slug":"ignorovano-medii-6-unora-den-od-ktereho-se-jaderna-valka-stava-pravdepodobnejsi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/22\/ignorovano-medii-6-unora-den-od-ktereho-se-jaderna-valka-stava-pravdepodobnejsi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ignorov\u00e1no m\u00e9dii: 6. \u00fanora, den, od kter\u00e9ho se jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka st\u00e1v\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Platnost nov\u00e9 smlouvy START omezuj\u00edc\u00ed rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jadern\u00fdch hlavic vypr\u0161\u00ed 6. \u00fanora. Po\u010det rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch hlavic by se pak mohl rychle zn\u00e1sobit.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

6. \u00fanora vypr\u0161\u00ed platnost smlouvy New START, posledn\u00ed zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed dohoda o kontrole jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed mezi Ruskem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Smlouva upravuje po\u010det rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Jedn\u00e1 se o t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 hlavice s mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed explozivn\u00ed silou ne\u017e bomba z Hiro\u0161imy, um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e9 na mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el\u00e1ch a p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 k nasazen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee ob\u011b strany nashrom\u00e1\u017edily stovky hlavic a proto\u017ee mnoho typ\u016f raket m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vybaveno v\u00edce nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdmi jadern\u00fdmi hlavicemi (tzv. MIRV) nam\u00edsto jednotliv\u00fdch hlavic, mohou ob\u011b strany po 6. \u00fanoru rychle zv\u00fd\u0161it po\u010det opera\u010dn\u00edch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeden americk\u00fd web o tom publikoval hodnotn\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>\u010dl\u00e1nek<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00fd jsem p\u0159elo\u017eil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tek p\u0159ekladu:<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Platnost americko-rusk\u00e9 smlouvy o jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00edch brzy vypr\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Od 6. \u00fanora nebudou Rusko a USA \u010delit \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m v roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

od Michaela Beckleyho | Novinky konsorcia<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Pro v\u011bt\u0161inu z n\u00e1s se p\u00e1tek 6. \u00fanora 2026 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude li\u0161it od \u010dtvrtka 5. \u00fanora. Pro mnoh\u00e9 to bude pracovn\u00ed nebo \u0161koln\u00ed den. M\u016f\u017ee to zahrnovat nakupov\u00e1n\u00ed na v\u00edkend, ve\u010dern\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159\u00e1teli nebo jednu z dal\u0161\u00edch v\u0161edn\u00edch \u017eivotn\u00edch aktivit. Z pohledu sv\u011btov\u00fdch d\u011bjin v\u0161ak bude tento den p\u0159edstavovat dramatick\u00fd zlom s dalekos\u00e1hl\u00fdmi a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b katastrofick\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poprv\u00e9 za 54 let nebudou dv\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jadern\u00e9 mocnosti sv\u011bta, Rusko a USA, v\u00e1z\u00e1ny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdmi smlouvami o kontrole zbrojen\u00ed, a budou proto m\u00edt ze z\u00e1kona svobodu roz\u0161i\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 arzen\u00e1ly o tolik nov\u00fdch hlavic, kolik budou cht\u00edt \u2013 krok, kter\u00fd jsou z\u0159ejm\u011b ob\u011b strany p\u0159ipraveny podniknout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si to p\u0159edstavit, ale p\u0159ed 50 lety, na vrcholu studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, m\u011bly USA a Rusko (tehdy Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz) dohromady 47 000 jadern\u00fdch hlavic \u2013 dost na to, aby n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t vyhladily ve\u0161ker\u00fd \u017eivot na Zemi. S t\u00edm, jak se ve\u0159ejn\u00fd strach z jadern\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed zvy\u0161oval, zejm\u00e9na po kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 krizi v roce 1962, kter\u00e1 byla t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 smrteln\u00e1, v\u0161ak vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 obou zem\u00ed vyjednali \u0159adu z\u00e1vazn\u00fdch dohod, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem bylo sn\u00ed\u017eit jejich arzen\u00e1ly a sn\u00ed\u017eit riziko Armagedonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed kolo t\u011bchto jedn\u00e1n\u00ed,\u00a0<\/span>Rozhovory o omezen\u00ed strategick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed I<\/span><\/em>\u00a0(SALT-I), za\u010dalo v listopadu 1969 a vedlo k v\u016fbec prvn\u00ed dohod\u011b o omezen\u00ed zbran\u00ed v kv\u011btnu 1972. V \u010dervnu 1979 n\u00e1sledovala SALT-II, kterou podepsaly ob\u011b strany, ale nikdy ji neratifikoval Sen\u00e1t USA, a tak\u00e9 dv\u011b\u00a0<\/span>smlouvy o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed strategick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed<\/span><\/em>\u00a0(START I a START II) v letech 1991 a 1993.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto dohod sn\u00ed\u017eila po\u010det jadern\u00fdch hlavic rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch na americk\u00fdch a sov\u011btsk\u00fdch\/rusk\u00fdch mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el\u00e1ch, balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el\u00e1ch odpalovan\u00fdch z ponorek a bombard\u00e9rech dlouh\u00e9ho doletu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve snaze toto \u010d\u00edslo je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce sn\u00ed\u017eit podepsali prezident Barack Obama a rusk\u00fd prezident Dmitrij Medved\u011bv v dubnu 2010\u00a0<\/span>novou smlouvu o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed strategick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed<\/span><\/em>\u00a0(New START), dohodu, kter\u00e1 omezila po\u010det rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch hlavic na ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b na 1 550, co\u017e je st\u00e1le dost na to, aby se vyhladil ve\u0161ker\u00fd \u017eivot na Zemi, ale velk\u00fd rozd\u00edl oproti limitu START-I 6 000 hlavic na stranu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Platnost nov\u00e9 smlouvy START m\u011bla p\u016fvodn\u011b vypr\u0161et 5. \u00fanora 2021, ale byla prodlou\u017eena o dal\u0161\u00edch p\u011bt let, jak bylo stanoveno ve smlouv\u011b, a nov\u00e9 datum vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti bylo stanoveno na 5. \u00fanora 2026 \u2013 datum, kter\u00e9 se nyn\u00ed rychle bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. A tentokr\u00e1t \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ze stran neprojevila sebemen\u0161\u00ed ochotu vyjedn\u00e1vat o dal\u0161\u00edm prodlou\u017een\u00ed. (\u00a0<\/span>Pozn\u00e1mka p\u0159ekladatele: To nen\u00ed pravda, proto\u017ee\u00a0<\/span><\/em>22. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025 Rusko ozn\u00e1milo<\/span><\/em><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee bude dodr\u017eovat limity jadern\u00fdch hlavic i po vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti smlouvy, pokud tot\u00e9\u017e ud\u011blaj\u00ed USA, dokud nebude vyjedn\u00e1na n\u00e1stupnick\u00e1 smlouva. Autor si je toho v\u011bdom, jak se o tom zmi\u0148uje pozd\u011bji.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka tedy zn\u00ed: Co p\u0159esn\u011b to bude znamenat, a\u017e 5. \u00fanora kone\u010dn\u011b vypr\u0161\u00ed platnost nov\u00e9 dohody START?<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina z n\u00e1s o tom v posledn\u00edch desetilet\u00edch moc nep\u0159em\u00fd\u0161lela, proto\u017ee jadern\u00e9 arzen\u00e1ly se z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zmen\u0161ily a hroz\u00edc\u00ed hrozba jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi supervelmocemi se zd\u00e1la zna\u010dn\u011b zmen\u0161it. Z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti jsme unikli no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016f\u0159e, kter\u00e1 je tak zn\u00e1m\u00e1 veter\u00e1n\u016fm studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kdy\u017e se ob\u00e1vali, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli sou\u010dasn\u00e1 krize, a\u0165 u\u017e je jak\u00e1koli, by mohla v\u00e9st k na\u0161emu zni\u010den\u00ed v termonukle\u00e1rn\u00edm holocaustu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1sadn\u00edm d\u016fvodem sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho osvobozen\u00ed od takov\u00fdch obav je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed jadern\u00e9 arzen\u00e1ly byly v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eeny a \u017ee se ob\u011b hlavn\u00ed jadern\u00e9 mocnosti dohodly na pr\u00e1vn\u011b z\u00e1vazn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00edch, v\u010detn\u011b vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch inspekc\u00ed sv\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f, s c\u00edlem sn\u00ed\u017eit nebezpe\u010d\u00ed ne\u00famysln\u00e9 nebo n\u00e1hodn\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato opat\u0159en\u00ed byla spole\u010dn\u011b navr\u017eena tak, aby si ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana zachovala nenapadnutelnou schopnost druh\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho \u00faderu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se eliminovala jak\u00e1koli motivace k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed prvn\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho \u00faderu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto relativn\u011b bezstarostn\u00e9 dny bohu\u017eel skon\u010d\u00ed o p\u016flnoci 5. \u00fanora.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od 6. \u00fanora nebudou rusk\u00e1 a americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da \u010delit \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m v roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f ani v podnik\u00e1n\u00ed jak\u00fdchkoli dal\u0161\u00edch krok\u016f, kter\u00e9 by mohly zv\u00fd\u0161it riziko termonukle\u00e1rn\u00edho po\u017e\u00e1ru.<\/span><\/p>\n

A zjevn\u011b ob\u011b strany hodlaj\u00ed t\u00e9to p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti vyu\u017e\u00edt a zv\u00fd\u0161it pravd\u011bpodobnost Armagedonu. Je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na nedostatek zdr\u017eenlivosti ve Washingtonu a Moskv\u011b nyn\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159uje sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l, co\u017e zesiluje touhu americk\u00e9ho a rusk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed j\u00edt daleko za limity stanoven\u00e9 novou dohodou START.<\/span><\/p>\n

Budouc\u00ed z\u00e1vody v jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed?<\/span><\/h3>\n

I p\u0159es dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed limitu 1 550 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch hlavic stanoven\u00e9ho novou dohodou START podnikly Rusko i USA rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 a n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 kroky ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed ni\u010div\u00e9 s\u00edly sv\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f nahrazen\u00edm star\u0161\u00edch, m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdkonn\u00fdch mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el (ICBM), balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el odpalovan\u00fdch z ponorek (SLBM) a jadern\u00fdch bombard\u00e9r\u016f nov\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi, je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku toho byla ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana ji\u017e l\u00e9pe vybavena k tomu, aby zp\u016fsobila potenci\u00e1ln\u011b katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody jadern\u00fdm schopnostem druh\u00e9ho \u00faderu sv\u00e9ho soupe\u0159e, co\u017e \u010dinilo prvn\u00ed \u00fader m\u00e9n\u011b nemysliteln\u00fdm a zvy\u0161ovalo riziko rychl\u00e9 eskalace krize.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko zd\u011bdilo po b\u00fdval\u00e9m Sov\u011btsk\u00e9m svazu rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l, ale mnoho z t\u011bchto syst\u00e9m\u016f bylo ji\u017e zastaral\u00fdch nebo nespolehliv\u00fdch. Aby si Moskva zajistila udr\u017een\u00ed arzen\u00e1lu alespo\u0148 stejn\u011b v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho jako Washington, sna\u017eila se nahradit v\u0161echny zbran\u011b ze sov\u011btsk\u00e9 \u00e9ry ve sv\u00e9m invent\u00e1\u0159i modern\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi a v\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi syst\u00e9my, co\u017e je proces, kter\u00fd st\u00e1le prob\u00edh\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad star\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely SS-18 jsou nahrazov\u00e1ny rychlej\u0161\u00edmi a v\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi SS-29 Sarmat, zat\u00edmco zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch p\u011bt raketov\u00fdch ponorek Delta IV (SSBN) je nahrazov\u00e1no modern\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi ponorkami t\u0159\u00eddy Borej. Nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely, rychlopaln\u00e9 rakety a rychlopaln\u00e9 rakety jsou \u00fadajn\u011b ve v\u00fdvoji.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko v sou\u010dasnosti vlastn\u00ed 333 mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch raket (ICBM), z nich\u017e zhruba polovina je rozm\u00edst\u011bna v silech a druh\u00e1 polovina na mobiln\u00edch nosi\u010d\u00edch. M\u00e1 tak\u00e9 192 SLBM na 12 raketov\u00fdch ponork\u00e1ch a 67 strategick\u00fdch bombard\u00e9rech, z nich\u017e ka\u017ed\u00fd je schopen odp\u00e1lit v\u00edce jadern\u00fdch raket.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak je stanoveno v dohod\u011b START, tyto syst\u00e9my by v sou\u010dasnosti nem\u011bly b\u00fdt vybaveny v\u00edce ne\u017e 1 550 jadern\u00fdmi hlavicemi, co\u017e by sta\u010dilo ke zni\u010den\u00ed n\u011bkolika planet. Mnoho rusk\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch raket je v\u0161ak schopno n\u00e9st i hlavice s vnit\u0159n\u00edm zorn\u00fdm polem (MIRV), co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mohou n\u00e9st v\u00edce nez\u00e1visle nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch hlavic, ale nejsou pln\u011b nabit\u00e9, a proto by mohly pojmout dal\u0161\u00ed hlavice, pokud by bylo u\u010din\u011bno odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Rusko nashrom\u00e1\u017edilo a\u017e 2 600 jadern\u00fdch hlavic, mohlo by od 6. \u00fanora 2026 rapidn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it po\u010det sv\u00fdch nasazen\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 ambice zv\u00fd\u0161it ni\u010divou s\u00edlu sv\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu je patrn\u00e1 ze snahy Moskvy doplnit st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed syst\u00e9my nov\u00fdmi s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm doletem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pat\u0159\u00ed sem Poseidon, jadern\u00e9 mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed ob\u0159\u00ed torp\u00e9do, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 n\u00e9st nov\u00e1 t\u0159\u00edda ponorek Belgorod, schopn\u00e1 n\u00e9st a\u017e \u0161est torp\u00e9d. Poseidon je \u00fadajn\u011b navr\u017een tak, aby detonoval u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed americk\u00fdch m\u011bst a u\u010dinil je tak neobyvateln\u00fdmi. Po prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch testech by torp\u00e9do m\u011blo vstoupit do slu\u017eby rusk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva v roce 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed novou zbran\u00ed je hypersonick\u00fd kluz\u00e1kov\u00fd syst\u00e9m Avangard. Bude instalov\u00e1n na n\u011bkter\u00e9 ze st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch raket SS-19. Po vypu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed do vesm\u00edru raketou SS-19 je Avangard navr\u017een tak, aby urazil dal\u0161\u00edch 2 000 mil klouz\u00e1n\u00edm v horn\u00edch vrstv\u00e1ch atmosf\u00e9ry a vyhnul se tak v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b radar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA podnikaj\u00ed podobn\u00fd moderniza\u010dn\u00ed krok sv\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu a nahrazuj\u00ed star\u0161\u00ed zbran\u011b modern\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi syst\u00e9my. Stejn\u011b jako Rusko si USA udr\u017euj\u00ed \u201etri\u00e1du\u201c syst\u00e9m\u016f pro dod\u00e1vku jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed: pozemn\u00ed mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely, rakety SLBM odpalovan\u00e9 z ponorek a bombard\u00e9ry dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, z nich\u017e ka\u017ed\u00fd je nyn\u00ed modernizov\u00e1n nov\u00fdmi hlavicemi \u2013 s odhadovan\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,5 bilionu dolar\u016f v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 25 letech.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed americk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 tri\u00e1da, omezen\u00e1 novou dohodou START, se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze 400 mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch raket Minuteman III ulo\u017een\u00fdch v silech, 240 st\u0159el Trident II SLBM na 14 ponork\u00e1ch t\u0159\u00eddy Ohio, z nich\u017e dv\u011b \u00fadajn\u011b proch\u00e1zej\u00ed gener\u00e1ln\u00ed opravou, a 96 strategick\u00fdch bombard\u00e9r\u016f (20 B-2 a 76 B-52) vyzbrojen\u00fdch r\u016fzn\u00fdmi jadern\u00fdmi bombami s voln\u00fdm p\u00e1dem a st\u0159elami s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu odpalovan\u00fdmi ze vzduchu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s nahrazen\u00edm Minutemanu III mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edmi balistick\u00fdmi raketami Sentinel, t\u0159\u00eddy Ohio t\u0159\u00eddou Columbia a B-2 a B-52 nov\u00fdm bombard\u00e9rem B-21 Raider. Ka\u017ed\u00fd z t\u011bchto syst\u00e9m\u016f m\u00e1 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 vlastnosti: vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159esnost, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed schopnost nen\u00e1padnosti a vylep\u0161enou elektroniku, co\u017e by je mohlo u\u010dinit je\u0161t\u011b u\u017eite\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi jako zbran\u011b prvn\u00edho \u00faderu, pokud by k takov\u00e9mu rozhodnut\u00ed n\u011bkdy do\u0161lo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e americk\u00fd moderniza\u010dn\u00ed projekt za\u010dal, m\u011bl spl\u0148ovat limit 1 550 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch hlavic stanoven\u00fd v dohod\u011b New START. Po 5. \u00fanoru v\u0161ak USA ji\u017e nejsou v\u00e1z\u00e1ny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdmi pr\u00e1vn\u00edmi z\u00e1vazky. Tento limit by mohly rychle za\u010d\u00edt p\u0159ekra\u010dovat t\u00edm, \u017ee by v\u0161echny st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed rakety Minuteman III a budouc\u00ed rakety Sentinel vybavily reaktivn\u00edmi hlavicemi (MIRV) nam\u00edsto jednotliv\u00fdch hlavic, nalo\u017eily by ji\u017e schopn\u00e9 reaktivn\u00edch hlavic v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u010det hlavic do raket Trident a urychlily by v\u00fdrobu nov\u00fdch bombard\u00e9r\u016f B-21.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA tak\u00e9 za\u010daly vyv\u00edjet nov\u00fd nosi\u010d zbran\u00ed, jadernou st\u0159elu s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu odpalovanou z mo\u0159e (SLCM-N), kter\u00e1 je \u00fadajn\u011b ur\u010dena k pou\u017eit\u00ed v \u201eomezen\u00e9m\u201c region\u00e1ln\u00edm jadern\u00e9m konfliktu v Evrop\u011b nebo Asii, a\u010dkoli nikdy nevysv\u011btlily, jak by takov\u00fd konflikt mohl zabr\u00e1nit glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu holocaustu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: Po vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti dohody New START nebudou ani Rusko, ani USA povinny omezit po\u010det jadern\u00fdch hlavic na sv\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch nosi\u010d\u00edch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, co\u017e by mohlo spustit nov\u00e9, bezb\u0159eh\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1vody v jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed \u2013 s neust\u00e1le rostouc\u00edm rizikem rychl\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zda se ob\u011b zem\u011b rozhodnou tak u\u010dinit, bude z\u00e1viset na politick\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed v obou zem\u00edch a jejich bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch vztaz\u00edch, stejn\u011b jako na hodnocen\u00ed elit ve Washingtonu a Moskv\u011b ohledn\u011b procesu budov\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politick\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

USA i Rusko ji\u017e investovaly obrovsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky do modernizace sv\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch nosi\u010d\u016f, co\u017e je proces, kter\u00fd bude trvat roky. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b panuje v obou hlavn\u00edch m\u011bstech relativn\u011b \u0161irok\u00fd konsenzus ohledn\u011b nezbytnosti tohoto postupu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00fdkoli pokus o urychlen\u00ed tohoto procesu nebo p\u0159id\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch kapacit by v\u0161ak znamenal obrovsk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady spojen\u00e9 s v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm naru\u0161en\u00edm dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce. K tomu doch\u00e1z\u00ed v dob\u011b, kdy se ob\u011b zem\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161it produkci konven\u010dn\u00edch nejadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k nov\u00fdm politick\u00fdm konflikt\u016fm a geopolitick\u00fdm rozkol\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00edsto \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto v\u00fdzev by se vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 obou zem\u00ed mohli rozhodnout dobrovoln\u011b zachovat limity stanoven\u00e9 v dohod\u011b New START. Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin ji\u017e s takov\u00fdm jednolet\u00fdm prodlou\u017een\u00edm souhlasil, pokud tak budou ochotny u\u010dinit i USA. Roste v\u0161ak i tlak na opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed t\u011bchto limit\u016f a nasazen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch hlavic, kter\u00fd se po 5. \u00fanoru nevyhnuteln\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve Washingtonu ji\u017e siln\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165 vl\u00e1dn\u00edch \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f, konzervativn\u00edch koment\u00e1tor\u016f, vedouc\u00edch pracovn\u00edk\u016f obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu a kongresov\u00fdch jest\u0159\u00e1b\u016f vol\u00e1 po roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by p\u0159ekro\u010dilo limity stanoven\u00e9 dohodou New START. Tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee k odstra\u0161en\u00ed agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho Ruska i siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010c\u00edny je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arzen\u00e1l.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak to v \u010dervnu 2024 vyj\u00e1d\u0159il Pranay Vaddi, vedouc\u00ed \u0159editel Rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti USA:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePokud se v\u00fdvoj nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu nezm\u011bn\u00ed, mohli bychom v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch letech dos\u00e1hnout bodu, kdy bude nutn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161it aktu\u00e1ln\u011b nasazen\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed, a my mus\u00edme b\u00fdt pln\u011b p\u0159ipraveni toto prov\u00e9st, pokud prezident u\u010din\u00ed toto rozhodnut\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Zast\u00e1nci takov\u00e9ho postupu pravideln\u011b poukazuj\u00ed na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika lety \u010c\u00edna vlastnila pouze asi 200 jadern\u00fdch hlavic \u2013 zlomek z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5 000, kter\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed Rusko a USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna v\u0161ak od t\u00e9 doby roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila sv\u016fj arzen\u00e1l odhadem na 600 hlavic a nasadila v\u00edce mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch raket (ICBM), raket SLBM a bombard\u00e9r\u016f schopn\u00fdch n\u00e9st jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. \u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00e9 zbra\u0148ov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my jsou nezbytn\u00e9 k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed odvety po prvn\u00edm \u00faderu. Jadern\u00ed jest\u0159\u00e1bi ve Washingtonu v\u0161ak uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed jejich samotnou existenci jako dostate\u010dn\u00fd d\u016fvod k roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed americk\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu za hranice dohody New START.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed \u010del\u00ed obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9mu dilematu. V dob\u011b, kdy v\u011bnuje tolik st\u00e1tn\u00edch financ\u00ed a vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch kapacit na v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b, je konfrontov\u00e1no se siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdm americk\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm arzen\u00e1lem, nemluv\u011b o hrozb\u011b rostouc\u00edho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu, kter\u00e1 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry nevyslovena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pak je tu pl\u00e1n prezidenta Donalda Trumpa na vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed \u201eZlat\u00e9 kopule\u201c, protiraketov\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00edtu ur\u010den\u00e9ho k ochran\u011b USA p\u0159ed v\u0161emi typy nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch projektil\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch raket \u2013 syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd by, i kdyby byl jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd, ohrozil schopnost Ruska zas\u00e1hnout.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli by rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed nepochybn\u011b rad\u011bji zabr\u00e1nilo n\u00e1kladn\u00fdm nov\u00fdm z\u00e1vod\u016fm ve zbrojen\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dojde k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee pokud USA opust\u00ed smlouvu New START, nem\u00e1 jinou mo\u017enost ne\u017e se k nim pustit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1vod do Armagedonu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Mnoho organizac\u00ed, jednotlivc\u016f a \u010dlen\u016f Kongresu nal\u00e9h\u00e1 na Trumpovu administrativu, aby p\u0159ijala n\u00e1vrh Vladimira Putina a souhlasila s dobrovoln\u00fdm pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm hranic v r\u00e1mci dohody New START i po 5. \u00fanoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9koli rozhodnut\u00ed o zru\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto limit\u016f by podle nich pouze zv\u00fd\u0161ilo deficit feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu o stovky miliard dolar\u016f, a to v dob\u011b, kdy jsou ji\u017e omezov\u00e1ny jin\u00e9 priority. Takov\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed by nepochybn\u011b vyvolalo odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed reakce Ruska a \u010c\u00edny. V\u00fdsledkem by byly nekontrolovan\u00e9 z\u00e1vody ve zbrojen\u00ed a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 riziko jadern\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed. Ale i kdyby se Washington a Moskva dohodly na dobrovoln\u00e9m prodlou\u017een\u00ed smlouvy New START o jeden rok, ka\u017ed\u00e1 ze stran by mohla kdykoli odstoupit.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto smyslu n\u00e1s 6. \u00fanor pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b uvede do nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry, podobn\u00e9 t\u00e9 z prvn\u00edch let studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, v n\u00ed\u017e budou hlavn\u00ed mocnosti p\u0159ipraveny roz\u0161i\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 kapacity pro veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky bez jak\u00fdchkoli form\u00e1ln\u00edch omezen\u00ed. Uklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed pocit relativn\u00ed svobody od bezprost\u0159edn\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho holocaustu, kter\u00fd jsme si kdysi u\u017e\u00edvali, nepochybn\u011b za\u010dne sl\u00e1bnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud je v tak bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze n\u011bjak\u00e1 nad\u011bje, pak je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee tato nov\u00e1 realita by mohla n\u00e1sledn\u011b rozpoutat celosv\u011btov\u00e9 hnut\u00ed proti jadern\u00fdm zbran\u00edm, podobn\u00e9 kampan\u00edm proti jadern\u00fdm zbran\u00edm v 60., 70. a 80. letech.<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00e9\u017e by to tak bylo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konec p\u0159ekladu<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Platnost nov\u00e9 smlouvy START omezuj\u00edc\u00ed rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jadern\u00fdch hlavic vypr\u0161\u00ed 6. \u00fanora. Po\u010det rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch hlavic…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81700,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1652,338],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97437"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97437"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97437\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}