{"id":97385,"date":"2026-01-21T00:24:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T23:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=97385"},"modified":"2026-01-21T04:16:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T03:16:04","slug":"exploze-zlata-a-stribra-prave-se-deje-neco-velkeho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/21\/exploze-zlata-a-stribra-prave-se-deje-neco-velkeho\/","title":{"rendered":"Exploze zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra: Pr\u00e1v\u011b se d\u011bje n\u011bco velk\u00e9ho"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Podle Brandona Smitha z Alt-Market.com signalizuj\u00ed ceny zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra nap\u011bt\u00ed pod povrchem ekonomiky. Od zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch se fyzick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob a\u017e po rekordn\u00ed n\u00e1kupy centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami, drah\u00e9 kovy varuj\u00ed, \u017ee z\u00e1kladn\u00ed probl\u00e9my z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nevy\u0159e\u0161eny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku 2020, na za\u010d\u00e1tku pandemick\u00e9 hysterie, jsem si v\u0161iml, \u017ee panika kolem Covidu se zd\u00e1la dokonale synchronizovat se zrychlen\u00edm \u00farokov\u00e9 politiky a zbavov\u00e1n\u00edm se aktiv ze strany Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu. Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru tento trend p\u0159edznamen\u00e1val sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 \u201eHlava 22\u201c, p\u0159ed kter\u00fdm jsem u\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu varoval.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od krachu v roce 2008 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 stimula\u010dn\u00ed programy a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nulov\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby k ochran\u011b korporac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e9 na to, aby zkrachovaly\u201c, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 udr\u017euje nad vodou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed. To si vy\u017e\u00e1dalo digit\u00e1ln\u00ed tisk des\u00edtek bilion\u016f fiat dolar\u016f a nevyhnuteln\u011b vedlo k prudk\u00e9 devalvaci dolaru.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl jsem, \u017ee to povede ke stagfla\u010dn\u00edm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m (k nim\u017e nakonec do\u0161lo v roce 2022) a tak\u00e9 k dilematu inflace versus deflace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m by mohl udr\u017eovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby n\u00edzk\u00e9 a ignorovat infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo kolapsu dluhov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nebo by mohla v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, \u201eukon\u010dit sv\u016fj l\u00e9k\u201c z dluhov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, umo\u017enit pokles cen a omezit inflaci potla\u010den\u00edm spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ob\u011b mo\u017enosti by mohly vyvolat hospod\u00e1\u0159skou krizi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 je pochopiteln\u00e9, \u017ee se Fed rozhodl nevybrat si ani jednoho z nich.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00edsto toho zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby \u2013 ale ne natolik, aby zvr\u00e1tila stagflaci. Zvolila st\u0159edn\u00ed cestu, odep\u0159ela ekonomice tolik pot\u0159ebn\u00fd l\u00e9k, a t\u00edm odlo\u017eila z\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1n\u00ed za nespr\u00e1vn\u011b alokovan\u00e9 zdroje.<\/span><\/p>\n

V podstat\u011b se probl\u00e9m p\u0159enesl na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed vl\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky strategie Fedu \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo, p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee st\u00e1le mus\u00edme \u017e\u00edt s masivn\u00edm n\u00e1r\u016fstem cen, ke kter\u00e9mu do\u0161lo b\u011bhem Bidenovy administrativy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pravda, \u017ee m\u00edra inflace se zpomalila. \u017divotn\u00ed n\u00e1klady jsou v\u0161ak v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed p\u011bti lety. (Pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed: Inflace nad nulou neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee ceny klesaj\u00ed \u2013 ale \u017ee nad\u00e1le rostou, jen pomaleji.)<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2020 jsem napsal \u010dl\u00e1nek s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Fyzick\u00e9 zlato se brzy velkolep\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem osvobod\u00ed od pap\u00edrov\u00e9ho trhu<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u201c, ve kter\u00e9m jsem p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl exploduj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst cen drah\u00fdch kov\u016f, jakmile se investor\u016fm stane tento probl\u00e9m s chytlavou \u010darou z\u0159ejm\u00fd. P\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl jsem, \u017ee kupuj\u00edc\u00ed se budou st\u00e1le v\u00edce vzd\u00e1t finan\u010dn\u00edch deriv\u00e1t\u016f (futures atd.) ve prosp\u011bch fyzick\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra, co\u017e zp\u016fsob\u00ed parabolick\u00fd r\u016fst fyzick\u00fdch cen.<\/span><\/p>\n

To se d\u011bje te\u010f<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Od doby, kdy jsem napsal tento \u010dl\u00e1nek, cena zlata za unci vzrostla o v\u00edce ne\u017e 200 %. Cena st\u0159\u00edbra explodovala o 400 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

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    \n
  • Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby fyzick\u00fdch kov\u016f se zhroutily.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Lond\u00fdnsk\u00e9 trezory se \u00fadajn\u011b od roku 2022 vypr\u00e1zdnily o 30 %.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Rafinerie hl\u00e1s\u00ed zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed dod\u00e1vek nov\u00fdch ingot\u016f v d\u00e9lce 10\u201314 t\u00fddn\u016f (m\u00edsto obvykl\u00fdch 2\u20134 t\u00fddn\u016f).<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Fyzick\u00e9 spl\u00e1cen\u00ed komoditn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f se zrychlilo na historicky bezprecedentn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Clivea Thompsona na LinkedInu. Thompson dod\u00e1v\u00e1:<\/span>
    \n\u201eToto p\u0159edstavuje dramatickou zm\u011bnu v chov\u00e1n\u00ed: Historicky m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 1 % kontrakt\u016f na COMEX vedlo k fyzick\u00e9mu dod\u00e1n\u00ed, ale v roce 2025 dos\u00e1hly indikace dod\u00e1n\u00ed v n\u011bkter\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch 100 %.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

    St\u0159\u00edbro je v dob\u011b psan\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku na historick\u00e9m maximu 90 dolar\u016f za unci. Zlato se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed 4 700 dolar\u016fm za unci.<\/span><\/p>\n

    (Mo\u017en\u00e1 se velk\u00e9 banky jako JP Morgan z n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b stahuj\u00ed z manipulace s trhem?)<\/span><\/p>\n

    N\u00e1kupy zlata glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami dosahuj\u00ed od roku 2022 ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b historick\u00fdch rekord\u016f \u2013 p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00ed dokonce \u00farovn\u011b po Velk\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tohle v\u0161echno je pozad\u00ed \u2013 co to znamen\u00e1?<\/span><\/p>\n

    Ekonomick\u00e1 singularita<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Zd\u00e1 se mi, \u017ee za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me ekonomickou singularitu \u2013 okam\u017eik hlubok\u00e9 zm\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nebo alespo\u0148 varovn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed zm\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Ceny drah\u00fdch kov\u016f se n\u00e1m sna\u017e\u00ed n\u011bco nazna\u010dit.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee toto sd\u011blen\u00ed je do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry ignorov\u00e1no \u2013 a to i konzervativn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi platformami. P\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo lid\u00ed mluv\u00ed o tom, co se d\u011bje s drah\u00fdmi kovy a co to znamen\u00e1 pro celkovou ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tady je to, co si mysl\u00edm\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

    Zaprv\u00e9, hore\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst investic do fyzick\u00fdch aktiv nazna\u010duje, \u017ee banky, vl\u00e1dy a nejbohat\u0161\u00ed 1 % investor\u016f se hore\u010dn\u011b zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed v r\u00e1mci p\u0159\u00edpravy na skute\u010dnou krizi. (M\u00e1m na mysli konkr\u00e9tn\u011b instituce a velmi bohat\u00e9, proto\u017ee jedna dod\u00e1vka zlata na burze COMEX p\u0159edstavuje 100 unc\u00ed zlata \u2013 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u016fl milionu dolar\u016f v dne\u0161n\u00edch cen\u00e1ch \u2013 co\u017e je daleko za hranicemi pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 rodiny.)<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak jsem poznamenal ji\u017e v roce 2020: Kdy\u017e banky za\u010dnou nakupovat fyzick\u00e9 zlato a st\u0159\u00edbro, m\u011bli bychom je n\u00e1sledovat. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b obchoduj\u00ed, aby vykompenzovaly ztr\u00e1ty v jin\u00fdch t\u0159\u00edd\u00e1ch aktiv. Nebo o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vy\u0161le ceny vzh\u016fru.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Potenci\u00e1l geopolitick\u00fdch konflikt\u016f je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b z\u0159ejm\u00fd. Evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u016f\u010di USA kv\u016fli celn\u00edm clo st\u00e1le nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u0161t\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi. Neust\u00e1le se sna\u017e\u00ed rozpoutat t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku s Ruskem atd.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Za druh\u00e9, existuj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed politick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 protesty proti prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed imigra\u010dn\u00edch z\u00e1kon\u016f. Ot\u00e1zka deportace je pouze z\u00e1minkou pro \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed konflikt mezi levic\u00ed a pravic\u00ed. (Kdyby se \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci ICE z\u00edtra vr\u00e1tili dom\u016f a ukon\u010dili sv\u00e9 povinnosti, levice by si na\u0161la n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bkv\u016fli \u010demu by se bou\u0159ila.)<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak jsme vid\u011bli v roce 2020, vnit\u0159n\u00ed chaos je n\u00e1strojem politick\u00e9ho vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 ob\u010dansk\u00e1 nestabilita p\u0159i\u017eivuje r\u016fst cen kov\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Za t\u0159et\u00ed, existuje nap\u011bt\u00ed s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00e9 nejsou spokojeny se zat\u010den\u00edm komunistick\u00e9ho dikt\u00e1tora Nicol\u00e1se Madura. Venezuelsk\u00fd export ropy byl kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro pr\u016fmyslovou kapacitu \u010c\u00edny. P\u0159esto\u017ee dod\u00e1vky Venezuely tvo\u0159ily pouze asi 4,5 % \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho dovozu, ztr\u00e1ta 4 % nebo v\u00edce na nestabiln\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu je v\u0161\u00edm, jen ne v\u00edtan\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Venezuela slou\u017eila jako z\u00e1kladna pro vojensk\u00e9 zdroje na z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokouli (v\u010detn\u011b sledovac\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f pro monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed USA). \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 a rusk\u00e9 zbran\u011b proti americk\u00fdm operac\u00edm \u017ealostn\u011b selhaly, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k budouc\u00ed eskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pln\u00fd dopad Madurova p\u00e1du zat\u00edm nelze kvantifikovat, ale bude zna\u010dn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

    V\u011bt\u0161ina Venezuelan\u016f se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt nad\u0161en\u00e1 z osvobozen\u00ed od Madura. Ot\u00e1zkou je: M\u016f\u017eeme se vyhnout dlouhodob\u00e9 katastrof\u011b? Na\u0161e arm\u00e1da vynik\u00e1 v p\u0159esn\u00e9m ni\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tel, ale m\u00e1me \u017ealostnou historii dlouhodob\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch okupac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Za \u010dtvrt\u00e9, nesm\u00edme zapom\u00ednat na protesty v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a potenci\u00e1l pro zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu v t\u00e9to zemi. Nem\u00e1m osobn\u00ed z\u00e1jem o to, co se d\u011bje na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee by se USA m\u011bly co nejv\u00edce dr\u017eet stranou, ale ned\u011bl\u00e1m si iluze, \u017ee Trump bude jen ne\u010dinn\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eet. Dok\u00e1zal, \u017ee je mu\u017eem \u010dinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Mus\u00edm uznat, \u017ee jeho zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed byla p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b efektivn\u00ed a alespo\u0148 ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f je dot\u010den\u00e9 obyvatelstvo v\u00edt\u00e1. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pravdou, \u017ee kdy\u017e se geopolitick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky m\u011bn\u00ed tak rychle, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomikou se nevyhnuteln\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed ot\u0159esy. I kdy\u017e jsou opat\u0159en\u00ed mor\u00e1ln\u011b spr\u00e1vn\u00e1 a strategicky nezbytn\u00e1, d\u016fsledky z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nakonec se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Fed je odhodl\u00e1n sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, ani\u017e by se kdy zab\u00fdval p\u016fvodn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem stagflace. Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje nikdy neklesly. Dluh \u2013 feder\u00e1ln\u00ed i dom\u00e1c\u00ed \u2013 nad\u00e1le roste. Ceny v\u011bt\u0161iny zbo\u017e\u00ed jsou st\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v roce 2020. USA by musely za\u017e\u00edt alespo\u0148 kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 obdob\u00ed deflace, aby se stagflace napravila, ale banky ud\u011blaly v\u0161e, co bylo v jejich sil\u00e1ch, aby tomu zabr\u00e1nily.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jin\u00fdmi slovy, pokud Fed bude pokra\u010dovat ve sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, inflace se v roce 2026 vr\u00e1t\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Co se stane d\u00e1l<\/span><\/h3>\n

    V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee jsou zde v\u0161echny spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 faktory pro trval\u00fd r\u016fst cen zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nebyl bych p\u0159ekvapen, kdyby se cena st\u0159\u00edbra do roku 2027 bl\u00ed\u017eila hranici 200 dolar\u016f za unci. Kombinace pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky, let deficitu dod\u00e1vek, rozhodnut\u00ed USA klasifikovat st\u0159\u00edbro jako kritickou komoditu, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch pokus\u016f zak\u00e1zat v\u00fdvoz st\u0159\u00edbra a PLUS nenasytn\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po st\u0159\u00edb\u0159e jako investici \u2013 to je souhv\u011bzd\u00ed sil, kter\u00e9 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nevyhnuteln\u011b \u017eenou cenu nahoru. A v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to nen\u00ed \u201edo\u010dasn\u00e9\u201c, stejn\u011b jako infla\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst v dob\u011b covidu. P\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1m, \u017ee tyto s\u00edly posunou pom\u011br zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra na \u00farovn\u011b, kter\u00e9 byly naposledy zaznamen\u00e1ny b\u011bhem vrcholu v roce 2011 (35:1), co\u017e by se prom\u00edtlo do dne\u0161n\u00ed ceny kolem 131 dolar\u016f za unci.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nevid\u00edm \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd n\u00e1znak toho, \u017ee by se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed tlak v dohledn\u00e9 budoucnosti zm\u00edrnil. Naopak se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee drah\u00e9 kovy signalizuj\u00ed, \u017ee se v\u011bci brzy stanou v\u00fdrazn\u011b chaoti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Dnes \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e kdy jindy \u2013 je vlastnictv\u00ed fyzick\u00e9ho zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00ed svobody. Nez\u00e1vislosti na fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm chaosu Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu a st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tyler Durden<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n
    \n

    Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

     <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Podle Brandona Smitha z Alt-Market.com signalizuj\u00ed ceny zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra nap\u011bt\u00ed pod povrchem ekonomiky. Od…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62900,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[426,6928,276,693],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97385"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97385"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97385\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62900"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}