{"id":97095,"date":"2026-01-17T05:36:32","date_gmt":"2026-01-17T04:36:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=97095"},"modified":"2026-01-17T05:36:32","modified_gmt":"2026-01-17T04:36:32","slug":"andrew-korybko-ukrajinske-utoky-dronu-proti-zivotne-dulezite-ropne-dopravni-tepne-kazachstanu-podporuji-strategicke-cile","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/17\/andrew-korybko-ukrajinske-utoky-dronu-proti-zivotne-dulezite-ropne-dopravni-tepne-kazachstanu-podporuji-strategicke-cile\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky dron\u016f proti \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 dopravn\u00ed tepn\u011b Kazachst\u00e1nu podporuj\u00ed strategick\u00e9 c\u00edle"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatoky v roce 2026 by mohly v\u00e9st k dlouhodob\u00fdm v\u00fdpadk\u016fm, kter\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy Kazachst\u00e1nu a povedou k drastick\u00fdm \u0161krt\u016fm v soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u00edch v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce, co\u017e by mohlo vyvolat protesty, kter\u00e9 se vymknou kontrole, stejn\u011b jako tomu bylo v lednu 2022, kdy do\u0161lo ke krizi na ji\u017en\u00ed hranici Ruska.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina op\u011bt zah\u00e1jila\u00a0\u00fatoky dron\u016f na tankery<\/a>\u00a0spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b americk\u00fdm konsorciem\u00a0Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)<\/a>, kter\u00e9 proch\u00e1z\u00ed Ruskem a\u00a0slou\u017e\u00ed jako \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 ropovodn\u00e1 trasa pro vnitrozemsk\u00fd Kazachst\u00e1n, p\u0159es kterou se realizuje 80\u00a0% jeho ropn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu. V\u00fdvoz energie p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a035\u00a0% HDP, 75\u00a0% v\u00fdvozu a\u00a0odhadem 30\u00a0% p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f vl\u00e1dy<\/a>. S\u00a0ohledem na tyto \u00fadaje je zpr\u00e1va agentury Bloomberg o\u00a0tom, jak kaza\u0161sk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz p\u0159es CPC za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc klesl o\u00a045 %, alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pokud konflikt bude pokra\u010dovat a\u00a0Ukrajina se bude c\u00edtit povzbuzena ned\u00e1vn\u00fdm zadr\u017een\u00edm tankeru pluj\u00edc\u00edho pod ruskou vlajkou ze strany USA, aby pokra\u010dovala v\u00a0\u00fatoc\u00edch proti CPC, a\u0165 u\u017e se jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0exportn\u00ed termin\u00e1l v\u00a0Novorossijsku a\/nebo tankery, pak by mohla b\u00fdt ohro\u017eena ekonomick\u00e1 a\u00a0t\u00edm i\u00a0politick\u00e1 stabilita Kazachst\u00e1nu. D\u0159\u00edve se m\u011blo za to, \u017ee \u201eUkrajina riskovala Trump\u016fv hn\u011bv po\u00a0bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed ropn\u00e9 infrastruktury v\u00a0Rusku<\/a>, kter\u00e1 je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b ve vlastnictv\u00ed USA\u201c v\u00a0\u00fanoru lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, ale on pot\u00e9 neu\u010dinil nic, aby ji donutil k\u00a0ukon\u010den\u00ed t\u011bchto \u00fatok\u016f.<\/p>\n

A to navzdory tomu, \u017ee CPC je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b ve vlastnictv\u00ed velk\u00fdch americk\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, jejich\u017e zisky by byly zasa\u017eeny naru\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fdvozu kaza\u0161sk\u00e9 ropy zp\u016fsoben\u00fdm pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmi \u00fatoky ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f. Kazachst\u00e1n nav\u00edc loni v\u00a0listopadu\u00a0podepsal s\u00a0USA memorandum<\/a>\u00a0o\u00a0porozum\u011bn\u00ed t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se kritick\u00fdch miner\u00e1l\u016f a\u00a0pot\u00e9 se\u00a0p\u0159ipojil k\u00a0Abrahamov\u00fdm dohod\u00e1m<\/a>, i\u00a0kdy\u017e ji\u017e Izrael uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, a\u00a0kr\u00e1tce nato ozn\u00e1mil pl\u00e1ny na v\u00fdrobu gran\u00e1t\u016f podle standard\u016f NATO. To by za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed m\u011blo b\u00fdt pro USA dostate\u010dn\u00fdm d\u016fvodem, aby p\u0159im\u011bly Ukrajinu k\u00a0zastaven\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Ukrajina pokra\u010duje v\u00a0\u00fatoc\u00edch na CPC navzdory v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm \u010dty\u0159em z\u00e1jm\u016fm, kter\u00e9 \u00fazce spojuj\u00ed USA s\u00a0Kazachst\u00e1nem, siln\u011b nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Trump 2.0 by mohl hr\u00e1t dvoj\u00ed hru. Pokud se konflikt bude d\u00e1le protahovat, ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na CPC se zintenzivn\u00ed a\u00a0v d\u016fsledku toho klesnou rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy Kazachst\u00e1nu na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok, pak by mohly b\u00fdt soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fddaje na rok 2027 v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eeny. Mohlo by doj\u00edt k\u00a0protest\u016fm, kter\u00e9 by vedly k\u00a0nepokoj\u016fm, kter\u00e9 by se\u00a0mohly vymknout kontrole, jako se to stalo v\u00a0lednu 2022<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Na rozd\u00edl od tehdej\u0161\u00ed situace, kdy Kazachst\u00e1n po\u017e\u00e1dal o\u00a0z\u00e1sah ruskou CSTO, by tentokr\u00e1t mohl po\u017e\u00e1dat o\u00a0z\u00e1sah tureckou Organizaci turkick\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f (OTS). D\u016fvodem je obava, \u017ee Rusko by mohlo intervenci vyu\u017e\u00edt k\u00a0potrest\u00e1n\u00ed Kazachst\u00e1nu za v\u00fdrobu gran\u00e1t\u016f podle standard\u016f NATO a\u00a0spekulace<\/a>, \u017ee Kazachst\u00e1n umo\u017e\u0148uje Ukrajin\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvat sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed k\u00a0prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f dron\u016f na \u00fazem\u00ed Ruska. Tuto obavu ned\u00e1vno je\u0161t\u011b\u00a0umocnil<\/a>\u00a0den\u00edk Washington Post, kter\u00fd tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Kazachst\u00e1n je Putinovou \u201edal\u0161\u00ed zast\u00e1vkou\u201c.<\/p>\n

Nasazen\u00ed vojsk \u010dlensk\u00e9 zem\u011b NATO Turecka do \u010dlensk\u00e9 zem\u011b CSTO Kazachst\u00e1nu, bez ohledu na to, jak do\u010dasn\u00e1 by jejich mise ofici\u00e1ln\u011b mohla b\u00fdt, by\u00a0mohlo snadno zhor\u0161it nap\u011bt\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0mezi Ruskem a\u00a0Tureckem, vzhledem k\u00a0https:\/\/thealtworld.com\/andrew_korybko\/will-putin-agree-to-a-ceasefire?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=emailo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed vlivu<\/a> Turecka pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9ho ji\u017en\u00edho okraje Ruska. Rusko by mohlo bu\u010f p\u0159ijmout sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed, p\u0159edej\u00edt mu od\u0159\u00edznut\u00edm Kazachst\u00e1nu od Kaspick\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, jak spekuluje<\/p>\n

kazachst\u00e1nsk\u00fd opozi\u010dn\u00ed politik \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed v\u00a0exilu, nebo jednostrann\u011b zas\u00e1hnout a\u00a0postavit se Turecku.<\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00a0t\u011bchto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f nen\u00ed pro Rusko ide\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale mohly by je urychlit nekontrolovateln\u00e9 nepokoje zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 drastick\u00fdm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f v\u00a0Kazachst\u00e1nu, pokud ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na jeho \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 exportn\u00ed trasy budou pokra\u010dovat i\u00a0v\u00a0roce 2026, co\u017e nelze vylou\u010dit, vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee EU\u00a0souhlasila s\u00a0financov\u00e1n\u00edm<\/a>\u00a0Ukrajiny na dal\u0161\u00ed dva roky. Rychl\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu vojensk\u00fdmi nebo politick\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky by v\u0161ak mohlo tuto \u0159adu ud\u00e1lost\u00ed zvr\u00e1tit, co\u017e je\u00a0p\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fvod<\/a>, pro\u010d by Rusko mohlo souhlasit s\u00a0kompromisem<\/a>\u00a0ohledn\u011b sv\u00fdch maximalistick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatoky v roce 2026 by mohly v\u00e9st k dlouhodob\u00fdm v\u00fdpadk\u016fm, kter\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":97096,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1338,3008,1635],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97095"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97095\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}