{"id":96779,"date":"2026-01-13T00:26:47","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T23:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=96779"},"modified":"2026-01-12T19:47:29","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T18:47:29","slug":"tchajwanska-idiocie-proc-teorie-her-vylucuje-invazi-v-roce-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/13\/tchajwanska-idiocie-proc-teorie-her-vylucuje-invazi-v-roce-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eTchajwansk\u00e1 idiocie\u201c: Pro\u010d \u201eteorie her\u201c vylu\u010duje invazi v roce 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco Pentagon varuje p\u0159ed hroz\u00edc\u00edm konfliktem v roce 2027, strategick\u00e1 \u201ematice v\u00fdplat\u201c vypr\u00e1v\u00ed jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Od zranitelnosti pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed oblasti a\u017e po \u201ehru na ku\u0159e\u201c s Japonskem \u2013 zde je d\u016fvod, pro\u010d Peking hraje mnohem dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bubnov\u00e1n\u00ed hroz\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky v Tchajwansk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu se stalo st\u00e1lic\u00ed v z\u00e1padn\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch. S rostouc\u00edm po\u010dtem vojensk\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed a bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se \u201eDavidsonov\u00fdm oknem\u201c v roce 2027 se zd\u00e1, \u017ee narativ je jasn\u011b stanoven: \u010c\u00edna se p\u0159ipravuje na historick\u00fd vojensk\u00fd tah.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale podle profesora Djangu China, experta na teorii her, kter\u00fd studoval na Yale a p\u016fsob\u00ed v Pekingu, tento narativ neobstoj\u00ed ve zkou\u0161ce racion\u00e1ln\u00ed logiky. Pro China je my\u0161lenka kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 invaze nejen nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1, ale tak\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>\u201eidiotsk\u00e1\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Chin s vyu\u017eit\u00edm chladn\u00e9 matematiky teorie her tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed politick\u00e9 priority \u010c\u00edny a jej\u00ed ekonomicko-geografick\u00e1 poloha p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed masivn\u00ed odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek, kter\u00fd nelze p\u0159ekonat r\u00e9torikou.<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Achillova pata pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed: Destinace p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 na to, aby se s n\u00ed riskovalo<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n

Nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem pro \u010d\u00ednskou invazi nen\u00ed jen americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo, ale i samotn\u00e1 geografie \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V teorii her je akt\u00e9r m\u00e9n\u011b naklon\u011bn k \u201edezerci\u201c (zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1lky), pokud by jeho nejcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed aktiva byla okam\u017eit\u011b zni\u010dena. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd z\u00e1zrak je zalo\u017een na \u00fazk\u00e9m pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edm p\u00e1su p\u0159\u00edmo naproti Tchajwansk\u00e9mu pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Koncentrace bohatstv\u00ed: P\u0159edn\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 metropole, high-tech pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 centra a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstavy se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v dosahu modern\u00edch raketov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V s\u00e1zce: Konflikt by nebyl jen n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed v\u00e1lkou; znamenal by fyzick\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny. Pokud je\u00a0<\/span>\u201espole\u010densk\u00e1 smlouva\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0komunistick\u00e9 strany zalo\u017eena na zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed prosperity, riziko naprost\u00e9 devastace pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed ekonomiky za \u00fa\u010delem \u00fazemn\u00edho zisku by bylo katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edm obchodem.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Japonsko a strategie \u201esp\u00e1len\u00fdch most\u016f\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n

V roce 2025 se hra zm\u011bnila. Japonsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r San Takaja\u010di zm\u011bnil japonsk\u00fd postoj ze\u00a0<\/span>\u201estrategick\u00e9 nejednozna\u010dnosti\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0na\u00a0<\/span>\u201estrategickou jasnost<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u201c a prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee blok\u00e1da Tchaj-wanu by byla pro Japonsko pova\u017eov\u00e1na za existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z hlediska teorie her Japonsko\u00a0<\/span>\u201esp\u00e1lilo mosty\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0T\u00edmto ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm z\u00e1vazkem eliminovalo mo\u017enost z\u016fstat neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed. Hrozba intervence se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u011brohodnou.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek: \u010c\u00edna nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed dilematu na dvou front\u00e1ch. I kdyby USA v\u00e1haly, \u010c\u00edna by \u010delila znovu vyzbrojen\u00e9 a technologicky vysp\u011bl\u00e9 japonsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b, odhodlan\u00e9 chr\u00e1nit jej\u00ed obchodn\u00ed cesty. To v\u00fdrazn\u011b sni\u017euje pravd\u011bpodobnost \u00fasp\u011bchu v jak\u00e9mkoli sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i invaze.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u201eHra na ku\u0159e\u201c v pr\u016flivu<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed lze nejl\u00e9pe popsat jako\u00a0<\/span>hru na ku\u0159e<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Dva jezdci (USA\/Japonsko a \u010c\u00edna) se p\u0159edh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed. C\u00edlem je p\u0159im\u011bt druh\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>jezdce, aby se vymkl z trasy<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sign\u00e1ly: \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed nejsou\u00a0<\/span>\u201ev\u00fdcvikem\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0na invazi, ale \u201e\u00a0<\/span>sign\u00e1ly\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0ur\u010den\u00e9 k demonstraci odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Racion\u00e1ln\u00ed volba vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se sr\u00e1\u017ece: Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u010deln\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eka (t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka) by pro v\u0161echny z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 znamenala\u00a0<\/span>\u201enegativn\u00ed nekone\u010dno\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, racion\u00e1ln\u00ed volba z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 napjat\u00fdm a nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fdm statutem quo. Dokud n\u00e1klady na sr\u00e1\u017eku z\u016fstanou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e n\u00e1klady na vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se sr\u00e1\u017ece, m\u00edr p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 \u2013 a\u0165 je jakkoli k\u0159ehk\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka: Lekce odvety<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n

Profesor Chin tak\u00e9 poukazuje na to, \u017ee obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou se chovala jako klasick\u00e1 hra\u00a0<\/span>\u201eoko za oko\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Zat\u00edmco cla z Trumpovy \u00e9ry m\u011bla \u010c\u00ednu donutit k \u00fastupu, v\u00fdsledkem byla patov\u00e1 situace, kter\u00e1 po\u0161kodila americk\u00fd exportn\u00ed sektor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do roku 2026 se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd export prok\u00e1\u017ee jako odoln\u00fd a USA si uv\u011bdom\u00ed realitu vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti. Ve sv\u011bt\u011b\u00a0<\/span>\u201ehon\u016f na jeleny\u201c,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0kde ob\u011b zem\u011b mus\u00ed spolupracovat, aby mohly t\u011b\u017eit z um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a pokro\u010dil\u00e9 v\u00fdroby, bude\u00a0<\/span>\u201ep\u0159eb\u011bhnut\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0v d\u016fsledku obchodn\u00edch v\u00e1lek nebo vojensk\u00fdch konflikt\u016f v\u00e9st k bilanci\u00a0<\/span>ztr\u00e1t a ztr\u00e1t<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ir\u0161\u00ed perspektiva: Chin\u016fv glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pohled<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n

Pro ov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed teoretick\u00e9 konzistence aplikuje profesor Chin hern\u00ed teoretick\u00e9 modely na n\u011bkolik kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch oblast\u00ed konfliktu:<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajina: Typick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00a0<\/span>vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lky,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0v n\u011bm\u017e strategick\u00e9 zisky klesaj\u00ed, zat\u00edmco n\u00e1klady rostou. To zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se ob\u011b strany nakonec vr\u00e1t\u00ed k vyjednan\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1ze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod: V\u00fdrazn\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dilema<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, charakterizovan\u00e9 ned\u016fv\u011brou a asymetrickou informa\u010dn\u00ed krajinou. Nedostatek d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00fdch z\u00e1ruk br\u00e1n\u00ed stabiln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ze spolupr\u00e1ce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indie-P\u00e1kist\u00e1n: Rovnov\u00e1ha odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed podpo\u0159en\u00e1 jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, v n\u00ed\u017e extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na mo\u017enou odvetu \u010din\u00ed prvn\u00ed \u00fader iracion\u00e1ln\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa-Energie: Koordina\u010dn\u00ed hra, v n\u00ed\u017e je spole\u010dn\u00e1 diverzifikace zjevn\u011b efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e s\u00f3lov\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. To druh\u00e9 vede k neoptim\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meta-vzor: Ve v\u0161ech p\u0159\u00edpadech je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee vz\u00e1jemn\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost ekonomick\u00e9 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politiky zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady konflikt\u016f a struktur\u00e1ln\u011b tla\u010d\u00ed akt\u00e9ry ke stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm strategi\u00edm spolupr\u00e1ce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br: Nezam\u011b\u0148ujte \u0161um se sign\u00e1ly<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n

M\u00e9dia se zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na\u00a0<\/span>\u201ehluk\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u2013 ohniv\u00e9 projevy a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed pohyby. Ale\u00a0<\/span>\u201esign\u00e1l\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u2013 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed matematika zranitelnosti pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed a vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti \u2013 ukazuje na stabilitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Peking nen\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u201epodm\u00ednkou v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0vlajka vzty\u010den\u00e1 nad Tchaj-wanem, ale pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed a r\u016fst pevninsk\u00e9 \u010c\u00edny. V chladn\u00e9m sv\u011btle teorie her by invaze byla nejjist\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestou, jak ztratit v\u0161echno. Tchaj-wan je odv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm pozornosti od skute\u010dn\u00e9 hry: dlouhodob\u00e9ho p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho motoru \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u25aa\u00a0\u25aa\u00a0\u25aa<\/p>\n

Felix Abt je podnikatel, autor (felixabt.substack.com) a cestovatelsk\u00fd blogger (\u00a0<\/span><\/em>youtube.com\/@lixplore<\/span><\/em><\/a>\u00a0) \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed v Asii.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zat\u00edmco Pentagon varuje p\u0159ed hroz\u00edc\u00edm konfliktem v roce 2027, strategick\u00e1 \u201ematice v\u00fdplat\u201c vypr\u00e1v\u00ed jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":96780,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,333],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96779"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96779\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}