{"id":96756,"date":"2026-01-13T00:19:34","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T23:19:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=96756"},"modified":"2026-01-12T11:11:21","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T10:11:21","slug":"senzacni-nova-zjisteni-vyssi-trend-oteplovani-na-zacatku-20-stoleti-vazne-zpochybnuje-roli-clovekem-produkovaneho-co2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/13\/senzacni-nova-zjisteni-vyssi-trend-oteplovani-na-zacatku-20-stoleti-vazne-zpochybnuje-roli-clovekem-produkovaneho-co2\/","title":{"rendered":"Senza\u010dn\u00ed nov\u00e1 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed: Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed trend oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed na za\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zpochyb\u0148uje roli \u010dlov\u011bkem produkovan\u00e9ho CO2"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pozoruhodn\u00fd v\u00fdzkum, kter\u00fd byl ned\u00e1vno publikov\u00e1n analyzuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159es\u00a0<\/span>42 milion\u016f z\u00e1znam\u016f o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplot\u011b<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0z t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159\u00a0<\/span>1 000 meteorologick\u00fdch stanic<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, vrh\u00e1 zna\u010dn\u00e9 pochybnosti na \u00fadajnou souvislost mezi emisemi oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho a rostouc\u00edmi teplotami. Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 statistick\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>pr\u00e1ce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0shrom\u00e1\u017edila data z obdob\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ed rokem 1900 a\u017e 2024<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a po \u00faprav\u011b o rostouc\u00ed nep\u0159irozen\u00e9 tepeln\u00e9 efekty ve m\u011bstech zjistila\u00a0<\/span>ro\u010dn\u00ed trend oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed 0,0054 \u00b0C<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Na t\u00e9to d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 anal\u00fdze je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdmluvn\u00e9 jasn\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>odd\u011blen\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0mezi n\u00e1r\u016fstem antropogenn\u00edho CO\u2082 a nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm oteplov\u00e1n\u00edm na za\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed, kdy byla industrializace omezena na relativn\u011b mal\u00fd po\u010det zem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ro\u010dn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed o 0,0054 \u00b0C<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0odpov\u00edd\u00e1 oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed o\u00a0<\/span>n\u011bco v\u00edce ne\u017e 0,8 \u00b0C b\u011bhem pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 \u00e9ry<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a je men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e tvrzen\u00ed o v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e\u00a0<\/span>1 \u00b0C<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0z jin\u00fdch, \u010dasto zpolitizovan\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Odd\u011blen\u00ed od CO\u2082 je patrn\u00e9 v\u00a0<\/span>pomalej\u0161\u00edch f\u00e1z\u00edch oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed a dokonce i ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0za posledn\u00edch 125 let, zat\u00edmco emise tohoto stopov\u00e9ho plynu v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e nad\u00e1le rostou. V\u00fdsledky studie jsou uvedeny v tabulkov\u00e9 form\u011b n\u00ed\u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n

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K nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed za\u00a0<\/span>42let\u00e9<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0obdob\u00ed do\u0161lo mezi\u00a0<\/span>lety 1899 a 1940<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, kdy kumulativn\u00ed emise CO\u2082 \u010dinily pouze\u00a0<\/span>139,6 miliard tun<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm obdob\u00ed, od\u00a0<\/span>roku 1941 do roku 1982,<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0do\u0161lo k pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu ro\u010dn\u00edmu\u00a0<\/span>ochlazen\u00ed o -0,013 \u00b0C<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, co\u017e v t\u00e9 dob\u011b vyvolalo rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 obavy z nov\u00e9 doby ledov\u00e9 \u2013 a to i p\u0159es\u00a0<\/span>3,3n\u00e1sobn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0kumulativn\u00edch emis\u00ed CO\u2082. Od\u00a0<\/span>roku 1983 do roku 2024<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u010dinilo pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>0,017 \u00b0C<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, co\u017e je m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed do roku 1940, kdy byly koncentrace CO\u2082\u00a0<\/span>8,7kr\u00e1t ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. P\u0159i zva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto \u010d\u00edsel je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee lid\u00e9 jsou prim\u00e1rn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou zm\u011bny klimatu, je\u00a0<\/span>hypot\u00e9za<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 jin\u00fdmi slovy n\u00e1zor, domn\u011bnka, kter\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 modely zalo\u017een\u00e9 na sou\u010dasn\u00e9m nebo selektivn\u00edm stavu znalost\u00ed p\u0159ikl\u00e1daj\u00ed nepodlo\u017eenou d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost. Politick\u00e9 intervence na podporu\u00a0<\/span>fantazie o nulov\u00fdch \u010dist\u00fdch emis\u00edch<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0jen m\u00e1lo p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9ho souboru znalost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto vzorce samoz\u0159ejm\u011b st\u0159et\u00e1vaj\u00ed se \u201ezaveden\u00fdm\u201c politick\u00fdm n\u00e1zorem, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed emise CO\u2082 z u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed uhlovod\u00edk\u016f je hlavn\u00edm faktorem ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>V\u016fbec neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ned\u00e1vn\u00e9mu absurdn\u00edmu pseudov\u011bdeck\u00e9mu tvrzen\u00ed britsk\u00e9ho meteorologick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu, \u017ee jeho \u201estudie rychl\u00e9 atribuce\u201c uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee \u010dlov\u011bkem zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 zm\u011bna klimatu zv\u00fd\u0161ila pravd\u011bpodobnost rekordn\u011b vysok\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed teploty ve Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed v\u00a0<\/span>roce 2025<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0asi\u00a0<\/span>260kr\u00e1t<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Rekord, mimochodem, o\u00a0<\/span>\u0161est setin stupn\u011b Celsia<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, z\u00edskan\u00fd z p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b \u201eodpadkov\u00e9\u201c s\u00edt\u011b senzor\u016f, kter\u00e9 se staly v podstat\u011b nepou\u017eiteln\u00fdmi kv\u016fli masivn\u00edm, nep\u0159irozen\u00fdm a nekorigovan\u00fdm tepeln\u00fdm vliv\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejen\u017ee se prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed \u00fapravy o tepeln\u00e9 deformace ve m\u011bstech, pokud v\u016fbec, ale glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplotn\u00ed soubory dat, kter\u00e9 \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed\u00a0oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed a\u017e o\u00a0<\/span>1,3 \u00b0C b\u011bhem pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho v\u011bku, jsou \u010dasto\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>retrospektivn\u011b revidov\u00e1ny sm\u011brem nahoru<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. GISS, sou\u010d\u00e1st NASA, zv\u00fd\u0161il oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed v minulosti od\u00a0<\/span>ledna 1915 do ledna 2000<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0z\u00a0<\/span>0,45 \u00b0C na 0,67 \u00b0C<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje masivn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst\u00a0<\/span>o 49 %<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. HADCRUT provozuje britsk\u00fd meteorologick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad (MBO), kter\u00fd kdysi publikoval \u010dl\u00e1nek o nev\u00fdhodn\u00e9 teplotn\u00ed \u201epauze\u201c od\u00a0<\/span>roku 1998 do roku 2013.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Tato pauza bohu\u017eel nep\u0159e\u017eila podstatn\u00e9 retrospektivn\u00ed korekce oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 ale z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 viditeln\u00e1 v p\u0159esn\u00e9m satelitn\u00edm souboru dat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cynici si v\u0161imli, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>v souborech dat o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplot\u011b je v\u00edce trik\u016f ne\u017e housl\u00ed v hudebn\u00ed kabinetu Kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e9 filharmonie<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

V re\u00e1ln\u00e9m v\u011bdeck\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b poch\u00e1z\u00ed tato nov\u00e1 anal\u00fdza historick\u00fdch teplotn\u00edch dat od\u00a0<\/span>Dr. Bibeka Bhatty<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Pracuje na\u00a0<\/span>Queen’s University v Belfastu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a jeho v\u00fdzkum se zam\u011b\u0159uje na energetickou politiku, finance a klima s d\u016frazem na vyu\u017eit\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>velk\u00fdch dat<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0k odhalen\u00ed skryt\u00fdch vzorc\u016f a syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch nesoulad\u016f. Ve sv\u00e9 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1ci Dr. Bhatta tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee akademi\u010dt\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00edci by m\u011bli ke konceptu\u00a0<\/span>antropogenn\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed (AGW)<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0p\u0159istupovat s ur\u010ditou opatrnost\u00ed.<\/span>
\n\u201eSp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby se s AGW zach\u00e1zelo jako s prok\u00e1zan\u00fdm faktem, m\u011bli by b\u00fdt v\u011bdci nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d v\u0161emi obory povzbuzov\u00e1ni k uzn\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch nejistot,\u201c \u0159ekl. P\u0159i vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed model\u016f nebo teori\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed CO\u2082 jako prim\u00e1rn\u00ed hnac\u00ed s\u00edlu zm\u011bny po\u010das\u00ed, by m\u011bli m\u00edt na pam\u011bti, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>empirick\u00e9 d\u016fkazy pro tuto p\u0159\u00edmou souvislost z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159edm\u011btem diskuse<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

V d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce se Bhatta zab\u00fdv\u00e1 do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry vyvr\u00e1cen\u00fdm tvrzen\u00edm o\u00a0<\/span>97%<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0v\u011bdeck\u00e9 shod\u011b ohledn\u011b antropogenn\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed (AGW). Toto tvrzen\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed z \u00fadajn\u00e9ho p\u0159ezkumu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159\u00a0<\/span>4 000 publikac\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0za\u00a0<\/span>21 let<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, co\u017e by znamenalo pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b jeden nov\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek ka\u017ed\u00e9 dva dny. To nazna\u010duje sp\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span>st\u00e1dn\u00ed mentalitu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ne\u017e mno\u017estv\u00ed nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch d\u016fkaz\u016f, poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 Bhatta.<\/span>
\n\u201ePokud by existoval siln\u00fd empirick\u00fd d\u016fkaz pro AGW, takov\u00e9 opakovan\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed by bylo zbyte\u010dn\u00e9,\u201c tvrd\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 je Dr. Bhatta p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zdvo\u0159il\u00fd na to, aby dodal, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u010d\u00edslo 97 procent<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 \u200b\u200bstejn\u011b jako pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>tvrzen\u00ed o 99 procentech<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 bylo stejn\u011b z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti\u00a0<\/span>vymy\u0161len\u00e9<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1ce Dr. Bhatty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi meteorologick\u00fdmi soubory dat je fascinuj\u00edc\u00ed. Sv\u00e1 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed prezentuje nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d r\u016fzn\u00fdmi \u010dasov\u00fdmi obdob\u00edmi; ve\u0161ker\u00e9 podrobnosti a metodologii lze nal\u00e9zt v p\u016fvodn\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku, na kter\u00fd je odkaz v\u00fd\u0161e. Jeho c\u00edl je jednoduch\u00fd: zkoumat, zda\u00a0<\/span>lze trendy glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed zaznamenan\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u00fdmi meteorologick\u00fdmi stanicemi p\u0159ipsat \u201eprim\u00e1rn\u011b\u201c lidsk\u00fdm emis\u00edm CO\u2082<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Jeho pr\u00e1ce se p\u0159ipojuje k dlouh\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b v\u00fdzkum\u016f, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed vykreslit realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obraz neust\u00e1le se m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edho klimatu minulosti \u2013 doby, kdy byly koncentrace CO\u2082 v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed a neexistovala\u00a0<\/span>\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zjevn\u00e1 korelace<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0s lok\u00e1ln\u00edmi nebo glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi zm\u011bnami teploty. Takov\u00e1 pr\u00e1ce, kter\u00e1 je ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b protiv\u011bdeck\u00fdch mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed fakticky\u00a0<\/span>zak\u00e1z\u00e1na<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, zkoum\u00e1 roli p\u0159irozen\u00e9 prom\u011bnlivosti po\u010das\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>\u201enasycen\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0plyn\u016f otepluj\u00edc\u00edmi atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdmi vlastnostmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00a0Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed historick\u00e9 klimatologick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b (Global Historical Climatology Network)<\/strong>\u00a0bylo sta\u017eeno celkem\u00a0<\/span>105 milion\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0z\u00e1znam\u016f o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplot\u011b . Po d\u016fkladn\u00e9m vy\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed fin\u00e1ln\u00ed vzorek obsahoval p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a042 milion\u016f m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed<\/strong>\u00a0s kontinu\u00e1ln\u00edmi daty z nejm\u00e9n\u011b\u00a0roku 1900.<\/strong>\u00a0V\u0161echny datov\u00e9 sady zahrnovaly denn\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed a minim\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty a poch\u00e1zely z\u00a0992 stanic ve 29 zem\u00edch<\/strong>\u00a0. Data o ro\u010dn\u00edch emis\u00edch CO\u2082 u lid\u00ed byla p\u0159evzata ze\u00a0slu\u017eby Our World in Data . Satelitn\u00ed data zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 urbanizace v\u00a0<\/strong>okruhu 10 km<\/strong>\u00a0byla pou\u017eita k \u00faprav\u011b vlivu m\u011bstsk\u00e9ho tepla\u00a0. Podobnou pr\u00e1ci provedli i dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed se sna\u017eili odhadnout dopad m\u011bstsk\u00e9ho tepla na m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed teploty vzduchu. Jak ukazuje tabulka, ro\u010dn\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0letech 1983\u20132024 \u010dinilo\u00a0<\/strong>0,0167 \u00b0C<\/strong>\u00a0, ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a00,0209 \u00b0C<\/strong>\u00a0bez zohledn\u011bn\u00ed tepeln\u00fdch deformac\u00ed ve m\u011bstech. Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed podporuj\u00ed tvrzen\u00ed Meteorologick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu o \u201enejteplej\u0161\u00edm roce v\u016fbec\u201c, by si m\u011bli tato \u010d\u00edsla v\u0161\u00edmat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem Dr. Bhatta poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jeho zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ohledn\u011b zaveden\u00fdch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se dopadu emis\u00ed CO\u2082 na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel pro zm\u011bnu klimatu (IPCC) \u201e\u00a0<\/span>nade v\u0161\u00ed pochybnost<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee lid\u00e9 zp\u016fsobili glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>empirick\u00e9 d\u016fkazy zde prezentovan\u00e9 neposkytuj\u00ed pro takov\u00fd jednoduch\u00fd vztah \u017e\u00e1dnou podporu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chris Morrison<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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