{"id":96591,"date":"2026-01-11T00:15:24","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T23:15:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=96591"},"modified":"2026-01-10T09:14:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T08:14:26","slug":"bas-van-geffen-eu-bude-asimilovana-umelou-inteligenci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/11\/bas-van-geffen-eu-bude-asimilovana-umelou-inteligenci\/","title":{"rendered":"Bas van Geffen: EU bude asimilov\u00e1na um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Odpor je marn\u00fd. Budete asimilov\u00e1ni um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed. Trumpova administrativa je odhodl\u00e1na, aby zbytek (z\u00e1padn\u00edho?) sv\u011bta p\u0159ijal americkou um\u011blou inteligenci a technologie. Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden USA pozastavily dohodu o technologick\u00e9 prosperit\u011b mezi USA a Spojen\u00fdm kr\u00e1lovstv\u00edm, \u00fadajn\u011b proto, \u017ee Trumpova administrativa byla frustrov\u00e1na nedostatkem pokroku v obchodn\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

List The\u00a0<\/span>Telegraph<\/span><\/em>\u00a0v\u0161ak uvedl, \u017ee by to mohlo souviset i s obavami, \u017ee britsk\u00fd z\u00e1kon o online bezpe\u010dnosti by mohl brzdit rozvoj americk\u00e9 um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence \u2013 USA se toti\u017e sna\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eet si n\u00e1skok p\u0159ed \u010c\u00ednou. To d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl: Americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da je ji\u017e dlouho nespokojena s evropskou regulac\u00ed v mnoha oblastech, v\u010detn\u011b poskytovatel\u016f digit\u00e1ln\u00edch slu\u017eeb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd obchodn\u00ed z\u00e1stupce tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee to vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nerovn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, zat\u00edmco evropsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti mohou v USA voln\u011b p\u016fsobit. Greer v\u010dera varoval Evropskou unii, \u017ee USA by mohly pou\u017e\u00edt jak\u00fdkoli n\u00e1stroj, kter\u00fd maj\u00ed k dispozici, k p\u0159ijet\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed proti \u201enep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm\u201c regulac\u00edm, a jmenoval zhruba tucet evropsk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00fdch by se to mohlo dotknout.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli EU zva\u017euje sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed byrokracie v n\u011bkolika oblastech, dosud neprojevila velkou ochotu oslabit nap\u0159\u00edklad z\u00e1kony na ochranu osobn\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f. Trumpova administrativa mezit\u00edm prok\u00e1zala svou p\u0159ipravenost vyv\u00edjet tlak na vl\u00e1dy jin\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky. Mohlo by trv\u00e1n\u00ed Bruselu na t\u011bchto pravidlech v\u00e9st k nov\u00e9mu obchodn\u00edmu konfliktu s USA?<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto hrozby vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed nov\u00e9 pochybnosti o vztaz\u00edch mezi EU a USA, zejm\u00e9na pot\u00e9, co USA tak\u00e9 zpochybnily z\u00e1vazek zem\u011b k \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 smlouvy NATO. Obchodn\u00ed dohoda uzav\u0159en\u00e1 za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto roku zjevn\u011b americkou vl\u00e1du neuspokojila \u2013 a to i p\u0159es sliby Bruselu, \u017ee bude v USA v\u00edce investovat a nakupovat v\u00edce americk\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho a obrann\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm kole m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f mezi Ukrajinou a Ruskem nyn\u00ed USA nab\u00edzej\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b \u201ez\u00e1ruky podobn\u00e9 t\u011bm podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 Smlouvy o NATO\u201c. Jde o pokus sladit ukrajinsk\u00fd po\u017eadavek na siln\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky s rusk\u00fdm po\u017eadavkem, aby se Ukrajina nestala \u010dlenem NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je to nab\u00eddka typu \u201eber, nebo nech to b\u00fdt\u201c a lze se pt\u00e1t, zda \u201epodobn\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky\u201c pro Ukrajinu posta\u010duj\u00ed k uzav\u0159en\u00ed dohody \u2013 zejm\u00e9na pot\u00e9, co ministr financ\u00ed Bessent podkopal \u010dl\u00e1nek 5 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm, \u017ee USA v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku nepo\u0161lou voj\u00e1ky do Evropy, ale pouze prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed zbran\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trhy s ropou nicm\u00e9n\u011b pokra\u010dovaly v klesaj\u00edc\u00edm trendu, jeliko\u017e m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed pokra\u010duj\u00ed a hroz\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nadbytek nab\u00eddky. Cena ropy WTI v posledn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159ech obchodn\u00edch seanc\u00edch klesla o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 6 % a dos\u00e1hla 55 dolar\u016f za barel, co\u017e je prvn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od \u00fanora 2021. Ceny ropy se v\u0161ak od ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch minim odrazily pot\u00e9, co prezident Trump zv\u00fd\u0161il tlak na Venezuelu blokov\u00e1n\u00edm tanker\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed den byl tak\u00e9 velmi nabit\u00fd datov\u00fdm kalend\u00e1\u0159em, jeliko\u017e americk\u00e9 statistick\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady nad\u00e1le pracuj\u00ed na nahromad\u011bn\u00fdch nevy\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech pot\u00e9, co uzav\u0159en\u00ed zem\u011b naru\u0161ilo zve\u0159ej\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed mnoha ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch dat.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledkem byla velmi neobvykl\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va o trhu pr\u00e1ce \u2013 a to nejen proto, \u017ee byla zve\u0159ejn\u011bna v \u00fater\u00fd. BLS doplnila chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00edjnovou zpr\u00e1vu. Dozv\u011bd\u011bli jsme se, \u017ee zam\u011bstnanost mimo zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed v \u0159\u00edjnu klesla o 105 000 a v listopadu se zotavila o 64 000. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee trh pr\u00e1ce od dubna prakticky nevyk\u00e1zal \u017e\u00e1dnou \u010distou zm\u011bnu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hodinov\u00e9 mzdy v listopadu byly slab\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, a m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti vzrostla ze 4,4 % v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed na 4,6 %. Celkov\u011b p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 obraz slab\u0161\u00edho trhu pr\u00e1ce. To nazna\u010duje dal\u0161\u00ed uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky, i kdy\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ne v lednu. Tyto dva m\u011bs\u00edce nebyly dostate\u010dn\u011b slab\u00e9, aby vyvolaly v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nal\u00e9havost u FOMC.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 \u00fadaje nav\u00edc vykazuj\u00ed pon\u011bkud v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rozp\u011bt\u00ed chyb v d\u016fsledku uzav\u0159en\u00ed trhu. Zat\u00edmco absence \u0159\u00edjnov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy mohla obchodn\u00edky p\u0159ipravit o z\u00e1bavu v prvn\u00ed p\u00e1tek v listopadu, statistiky \u010delily z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad absenci obvykl\u00fdch statistick\u00fdch vah pro aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu zalo\u017een\u00fdch na p\u0159edchoz\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. V d\u016fsledku toho museli upravit metodiku v\u00e1\u017een\u00ed individu\u00e1ln\u00edch odpov\u011bd\u00ed v agregovan\u00fdch statistik\u00e1ch zam\u011bstnanosti. K tomu se p\u0159idala ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e obvykl\u00e1 m\u00edra odpov\u011bd\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naproti tomu m\u00edra \u00fa\u010dasti v pr\u016fzkumu v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed byla vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e obvykle. Obdob\u00ed pr\u016fzkumu pro \u0159\u00edjen a listopad bylo kv\u016fli lockdownu prodlou\u017eeno, co\u017e zam\u011bstnavatel\u016fm poskytlo v\u00edce \u010dasu na odpov\u011bdi. To by mohlo v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00e9st k pon\u011bkud men\u0161\u00edm reviz\u00edm v\u010derej\u0161\u00edch odhad\u016f \u00fadaj\u016f o zam\u011bstnanosti mimo zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indexy n\u00e1kupn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f v Evrop\u011b mezit\u00edm vy\u0161ly o n\u011bco slab\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo. Aktivita v euroz\u00f3n\u011b byla dosud odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo, ale tato data nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st t\u00e9to odolnosti nyn\u00ed sl\u00e1bne. Ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve jsme o\u010dek\u00e1vali obdob\u00ed slabosti, ne\u017e r\u016fst euroz\u00f3ny v roce 2026 znovu nabere na dynamice. Zpr\u00e1va PMI nicm\u00e9n\u011b do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry zm\u00edrnila tlak na ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 tr\u017en\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb do konce roku 2026. Pokles kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb vedl k m\u00edrn\u00e9mu strm\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu evropsk\u00e9 v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na britsk\u00fdch pen\u011b\u017en\u00edch trz\u00edch prudce rostou. Inflace ve Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed v listopadu op\u011bt zaostala za o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edmi. Celkov\u00e1 inflace se meziro\u010dn\u011b zpomalila na 3,2 %, co\u017e je m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e progn\u00f3za Bank of England ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3,4 % a nejslab\u0161\u00ed hodnota za osm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. J\u00e1drov\u00e1 inflace se tak\u00e9 zm\u00edrnila a meziro\u010dn\u011b klesla na 3,2 %, co\u017e je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dva roky, zat\u00edmco inflace ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch klesla na 4,4 %. Banka tak\u00e9 pe\u010dliv\u011b sleduje inflaci cen potravin, proto\u017ee ovliv\u0148uje infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Ta se meziro\u010dn\u011b zpomalila ze 4,9 % na 4,2 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

V kombinaci se slab\u00fdmi \u00fadaji o aktivit\u011b od l\u00e9ta, rostouc\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanost\u00ed a zpomalen\u00edm r\u016fstu mezd v soukrom\u00e9m sektoru se zd\u00e1, \u017ee diskus\u00edm ve V\u00fdboru pro m\u011bnovou politiku (MPC) dominuje dezinfla\u010dn\u00ed narativ. Rizika trvale vysok\u00e9 inflace klesaj\u00ed. Celkov\u011b data nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Bank of England zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za v\u00fdvojem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee z\u00edtra je sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby o 25 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f hotovou v\u011bc\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed ji\u017e v \u00fanoru se jev\u00ed jako st\u00e1le pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Ji\u017e jsme po\u010d\u00edtali s dal\u0161\u00edm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm v \u00fanoru a vid\u00edme rizika pro na\u0161i progn\u00f3zu kone\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby 3,25 % v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce \u2013 zejm\u00e9na pokud se britsk\u00e1 ekonomika nezotav\u00ed ze slabosti pozorovan\u00e9 ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/span>Base van Geffena<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, hlavn\u00edho makroekonomick\u00e9ho strat\u00e9ga v Rabobank<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Odpor je marn\u00fd. Budete asimilov\u00e1ni um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed. Trumpova administrativa je odhodl\u00e1na, aby zbytek (z\u00e1padn\u00edho?) sv\u011bta…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":96592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,41,2194],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96591"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96591\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}