{"id":95766,"date":"2026-01-01T00:20:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T23:20:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=95766"},"modified":"2025-12-31T10:36:27","modified_gmt":"2025-12-31T09:36:27","slug":"konsensus-prognoz-co-experti-ocekavaji-pro-rok-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/01\/01\/konsensus-prognoz-co-experti-ocekavaji-pro-rok-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Konsensus progn\u00f3z: Co experti o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed pro rok 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\">Spole\u010dnost Visual Capitalist<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0ji\u017e sedm\u00fd rok po sob\u011b\u00a0reviduje progn\u00f3zy a p\u0159edstavuje v\u00e1m \u201ePredik\u010dn\u00ed konsenzus\u201c, shrnut\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed analytik\u016f, l\u00eddr\u016f v oblasti my\u0161len\u00ed a odborn\u00edk\u016f z oboru pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed rok.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\">Nick Routley<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0letos\u00a0analyzoval p\u0159es 2 000 individu\u00e1ln\u00edch progn\u00f3z z \u0161irok\u00e9 \u0161k\u00e1ly zdroj\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, MMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoftu, Gartneru a des\u00edtek dal\u0161\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zmapov\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159ekr\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto progn\u00f3z jsme shrom\u00e1\u017edili informace o 25 vysoce p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00fdch t\u00e9matech, prezentovan\u00fdch v na\u0161em form\u00e1tu \u201eBingo Card\u201c, kde po\u010det bod\u016f odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed objem podp\u016frn\u00fdch progn\u00f3z.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Konsensus progn\u00f3z: Co experti o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed pro rok 2026\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/2025-12-28_09-45-26.jpg?itok=O1pT1UTu\" alt=\"Konsensus progn\u00f3z: Co experti o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed pro rok 2026\" width=\"670\" height=\"857\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\">Chcete-li z\u00edskat kompletn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu progn\u00f3zn\u00edho konsensu a zjistit, co m\u016f\u017eete o\u010dek\u00e1vat v roce 2026, sta\u0148te se \u010dlenem VC+ nebo si zakupte kompletn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu a bal\u00ed\u010dek Global Forecast Series.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Celkov\u00e1 n\u00e1lada v roce 2026<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud byl rok 2025 rokem p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed \u2013 s rekalibrac\u00ed trh\u016f na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, geopolitickou reorganizac\u00ed kolem druh\u00e9 Trumpovy administrativy a cel a p\u0159echodem um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence od humbuku k praktick\u00e9mu uplatn\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 pak se rok 2026 r\u00fdsuje jako rok konsolidace a d\u016fsledk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Obecn\u00fd sentiment je opatrn\u011b optimistick\u00fd, ale poznamen\u00e1n nejistotou. Morgan Stanley popisuje rok 2026 jako \u201erok restartu rizika\u201c, dobu, kdy se pozornost trhu p\u0159esouv\u00e1 od makroekonomick\u00fdch obav k mikroekonomick\u00fdm fundament\u016fm, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u00farodnou p\u016fdu pro rizikov\u00e1 aktiva. Politick\u00e9 pozad\u00ed je neobvykle p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9: fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed stimuly, pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed (i kdy\u017e pomalej\u0161\u00ed) uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky a deregulace tvo\u0159\u00ed to, co analytici naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u201epolitick\u00fdm trifectou\u201c, kter\u00fd se mimo recese vyskytuje jen z\u0159\u00eddka.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010casopis The Economist v\u0161ak vol\u00ed st\u0159\u00edzliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed t\u00f3n a varuje, \u017ee rok 2026 bude ve znamen\u00ed nejistoty, jeliko\u017e Trumpovo p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed geopolitick\u00fdch norem nad\u00e1le rezonuje po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Star\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d zalo\u017een\u00fd na pravidlech se d\u00e1le vzdaluje a hranice mezi v\u00e1lkou a m\u00edrem se st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u00edr\u00e1 provokacemi\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, kybernetick\u00fdmi \u00fatoky a v\u0161udyp\u0159\u00edtomnou rivalitou mezi n\u00e1rody.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: rizikov\u00e9 investice sice mohou vzkv\u00e9tat, ale sv\u011bt pod nimi z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 turbulentn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">AI: Op\u011bt velk\u00e9 t\u00e9ma<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ji\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed rok po sob\u011b dominuje v progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, ale jej\u00ed narativ se vyv\u00edjel. Zat\u00edmco progn\u00f3zy pro rok 2024 se zam\u011b\u0159ovaly na to, zda byl humbuk kolem um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00fd, a rok 2025 zd\u016fraz\u0148oval jej\u00ed \u0161irok\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed, diskuse pro rok 2026 se to\u010d\u00ed kolem integrace a jej\u00edch d\u016fsledk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/predictions-2026-ai-productivity.jpg?itok=XNYu7h5v\" alt=\"\" width=\"860\" height=\"311\" \/><\/figure>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Od n\u00e1stroje k partnerovi<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ve v\u0161ech odv\u011btv\u00edch nyn\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence jde nad r\u00e1mec pouh\u00e9ho odpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed na ot\u00e1zky a aktivn\u011b spolupracuje s lidmi na roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jejich odborn\u00fdch znalost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Toto je rok expanze\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence zalo\u017een\u00e9 na agentech<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. Spole\u010dnost Deloitte p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee do konce roku 2026 by a\u017e 75 % spole\u010dnost\u00ed mohlo investovat do um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence zalo\u017een\u00e9 na agentech (autonomn\u00ed syst\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pl\u00e1novat, jednat a adaptovat se s omezen\u00fdm lidsk\u00fdm dohledem). O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee se tito agenti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence stanou \u201edigit\u00e1ln\u00edmi kolegy\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed pomohou mal\u00fdm t\u00fdm\u016fm dos\u00e1hnout v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho \u00fasp\u011bchu. Microsoft si p\u0159edstavuje budoucnost, v n\u00ed\u017e t\u0159\u00ed\u010dlenn\u00fd marketingov\u00fd t\u00fdm m\u016f\u017ee spustit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kampa\u0148 b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence se postar\u00e1 o zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed dat a tvorbu obsahu, zat\u00edmco lid\u00e9 budou \u0159\u00eddit strategii.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Po letech o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se kone\u010dn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed produktivity, kter\u00e9 p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, projev\u00ed v m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch \u010d\u00edslech. Morgan Stanley uv\u00e1d\u00ed efektivitu poh\u00e1n\u011bnou um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed jako jeden ze \u0161esti kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 stoj\u00ed za jej\u00edmi optimistick\u00fdmi progn\u00f3zami zisku. Softwarov\u00e9 a internetov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch t\u0159ech letech v\u00edce ne\u017e 20n\u00e1sobn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst tr\u017eeb z generativn\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/predictions-2026-ai-at-work.jpg?itok=OZApqaMw\" alt=\"\" width=\"885\" height=\"319\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence bude m\u00edt samoz\u0159ejm\u011b i dal\u0161\u00ed dopady na trh pr\u00e1ce. Profesn\u00ed skupiny a znalostn\u00ed pracovn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed se d\u0159\u00edve c\u00edtili bezpe\u010dn\u011b, se nyn\u00ed za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed ob\u00e1vat o jistotu sv\u00e9ho zam\u011bstn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Tr\u017en\u00ed progn\u00f3zy: J\u00edzda na vln\u011b um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdhodou je, \u017ee um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence dominuje i v\u00fdvoji na trhu. Konsenzus je jednozna\u010dn\u011b optimistick\u00fd, a\u010dkoli je zm\u00edrn\u011bn obavami z ocen\u011bn\u00ed a pov\u011bdom\u00edm o rizic\u00edch koncentrace.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">S&amp;P 500: O\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed se dvoucifern\u00e9 zisky<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 z Wall Street se ve sv\u00fdch progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch ohledn\u011b c\u00edl\u016f indexu S&amp;P 500 do konce roku 2026 pohybuj\u00ed v \u00fazk\u00e9m rozp\u011bt\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/2025-12-28_09-49-50.jpg?itok=GyI_isr5\" alt=\"\" width=\"722\" height=\"189\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">JPMorgan se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee index by mohl potenci\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ekonat hranici 8 000 bod\u016f, pokud Fed uvoln\u00ed m\u011bnovou politiku v\u00edce, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo. Morgan Stanley to popisuje jako nejoptimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhled za posledn\u00ed roky, a to d\u00edky n\u00e1vratu provozn\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed efektivity d\u00edky um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligenci, akomodativn\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed a regula\u010dn\u00ed politice a m\u00edrn\u00fdm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee analytici o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed t\u00edhu r\u016fstu v roce 2026 ponesou zisky. Savita Subramanian z Bank of America p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 r\u016fst zisku na akcii (EPS) o 14 %, ale poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee n\u00e1sobky P\/E by mohly ve skute\u010dnosti klesnout o 10 bod\u016f, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee trh bude muset p\u0159ekonat ze\u010f skepticismu ohledn\u011b oce\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Morgan Stanley p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 v roce 2026 zisk na akcii S&amp;P 500 ve v\u00fd\u0161i 317 USD (17% r\u016fst).<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Zlat\u00fd supercyklus pokra\u010duje<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zlato z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 favoritem. Morgan Stanley c\u00edl\u00ed na cenu 4 500 dolar\u016f za unci \u2013 co\u017e je n\u00e1r\u016fst o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 9 % oproti sou\u010dasn\u00fdm \u00farovn\u00edm. Sv\u011btov\u00e1 rada pro zlato uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee do roku 2025 zlato dos\u00e1hne v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 historick\u00fdch maxim a mohlo by potenci\u00e1ln\u011b dos\u00e1hnout sv\u00e9ho \u010dtvrt\u00e9ho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho ro\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdnosu od roku 1971.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/predictions-2026-gold.jpg?itok=FcraG4P4\" alt=\"\" width=\"749\" height=\"270\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fvody jsou struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed povahy: n\u00e1kupy centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, geopolitick\u00e9 zaji\u0161\u0165ovac\u00ed transakce a obavy o udr\u017eitelnost ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed. V za\u010darovan\u00e9m kruhu se zrychluj\u00edc\u00edm se zhor\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiky by cena zlata mohla vzr\u016fst o 15 a\u017e 30 % oproti sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u00farovni.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy: M\u011bkk\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed s v\u00fdhradami<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">MMF p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst o 3,2 % pro rok 2025 a 3,1 % pro rok 2026 \u2013 pod pr\u016fm\u011brem 3,7 % p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed, ale ne recesn\u00ed. Morgan Stanley o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 podobn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla: glob\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst o 3,0 % v roce 2025 a 3,2 % v letech 2026 i 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V industrializovan\u00fdch zem\u00edch se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 r\u016fst kolem 1,5 a\u017e 1,6 %, zat\u00edmco u rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se trh\u016f pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 4 %. Konsenzus p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 m\u011bkk\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed: r\u016fst se zpomal\u00ed, inflace bude nad\u00e1le postupn\u011b klesat a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky uvoln\u00ed svou politiku \u2013 ale ne agresivn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Konec \u00e9ry \u201edel\u0161\u00edho pom\u011bru k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmu\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se dal\u0161\u00ed normalizace m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 Morgan Stanley p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee Fed sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby do poloviny roku na 3,0\u20133,25 % a pot\u00e9 je na del\u0161\u00ed dobu pozastav\u00ed. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee Bank of England sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sazby na 2,75 %, ne\u017e je pozastav\u00ed. ECB, kter\u00e1 \u010del\u00ed inflaci pod c\u00edlovou \u00farovn\u00ed a pomal\u00e9mu r\u016fstu, by mohla sn\u00ed\u017eit sazby razantn\u011bji, ne\u017e je v sou\u010dasnosti zahrnuto na trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Japonsko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdjimkou: Je to jedin\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka velk\u00e9 industrializovan\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee Bank of Japan dos\u00e1hne \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby 0,75 % do prosince, ne\u017e se pozastav\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Geopolitick\u00e9 a obchodn\u00ed politick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy: Cla a nap\u011bt\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><span dir=\"auto\">Cla se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed nov\u00fdm norm\u00e1lem<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jen m\u00e1lo ot\u00e1zek se t\u011b\u0161\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed shod\u011b ne\u017e tato:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">celn\u00ed re\u017eim<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0z\u016fstane v platnosti. Trumpova odvetn\u00e1 cla generuj\u00ed ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159\u00edjmy ve v\u00fd\u0161i t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 300 miliard dolar\u016f a a\u010dkoli mohou \u010delit pr\u00e1vn\u00edm spor\u016fm (Barclays o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee je Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed soud prohl\u00e1s\u00ed za nez\u00e1konn\u00e9), efektivn\u00ed celn\u00ed sazba dos\u00e1hla sv\u00e9ho vrcholu na 12,1 % \u2013 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed od roku 1934.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/predictions-2026-tariffs.jpg?itok=fMO9jtI3\" alt=\"\" width=\"774\" height=\"279\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00fd dopad bude absorbov\u00e1n l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e se mnoz\u00ed ob\u00e1vali. UBS o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026 \u201eobdob\u00ed slabosti\u201c, jeliko\u017e cla ovlivn\u00ed ceny v USA, po n\u011bm\u017e bude od druh\u00e9ho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed n\u00e1sledovat expanze a pos\u00edlen\u00ed r\u016fstu. Struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bna je v\u0161ak hlubok\u00e1: obchod by se mohl trvale p\u0159esunout, dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce se diverzifikuj\u00ed a USA explicitn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed cla jako n\u00e1stroj ekonomick\u00e9ho tlaku.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna se zam\u011b\u0159uje na export a v\u00fdrobu<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna, kter\u00e1 tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 deflaci, krizi bydlen\u00ed a zpomaluj\u00edc\u00edmu dom\u00e1c\u00edmu r\u016fstu, se st\u00e1le v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159uje na v\u00fdrobu a export. Zem\u011b se prezentuje jako spolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed partner, zejm\u00e9na v zem\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu, a uzav\u00edr\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed dohody, zat\u00edmco USA se stahuj\u00ed z multilateralismu.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/predictions-2026-china.jpg?itok=BbMg_E1D\" alt=\"\" width=\"843\" height=\"304\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Morgan Stanley o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee re\u00e1ln\u00fd HDP \u010c\u00edny vzroste v roce 2026 o 5 % d\u00edky v\u010dasn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed podpo\u0159e. Tato strategie v\u0161ak vede ke glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu nap\u011bt\u00ed: nadm\u011brn\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 kapacita by mohla zaplavit sv\u011btov\u00e9 trhy a obchodn\u00ed spory by se mohly vyhrotit.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1r\u016fst provokac\u00ed v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010casopis The Economist varuje, \u017ee Rusko a \u010c\u00edna prov\u011b\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1vazek USA v\u016f\u010di spojenc\u016fm provokacemi v \u201e\u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b\u201c severn\u00ed Evropy a Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e. Nap\u011bt\u00ed se bude stup\u0148ovat v Arktid\u011b, na ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1ze, na mo\u0159sk\u00e9m dn\u011b a v kyberprostoru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato \u201eenvironment\u00e1ln\u00ed rivalita\u201c, kter\u00e1 nep\u0159edstavuje otev\u0159enou v\u00e1lku, ale p\u0159esahuje b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 t\u0159en\u00ed v dob\u011b m\u00edru, se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zintenzivn\u00ed. Sout\u011b\u017e mezi velmocemi bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce zahrnovat vesm\u00edrn\u00fd pr\u016fzkum, technologii dron\u016f a kybernetick\u00e9 operace poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e9 um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Posouzen\u00ed konsensu<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Historie n\u00e1s u\u010d\u00ed poko\u0159e p\u0159i p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed. Posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolik let p\u0159ineslo nep\u0159edv\u00eddan\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a nen\u00ed d\u016fvod o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee se rok 2026 vyvine p\u0159esn\u011b tak, jak p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 konsenzus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Cenn\u00e9 nejsou konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, ale t\u00e9mata, na kter\u00e1 informovan\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed svou pozornost. Mezi p\u0159\u00edklady pat\u0159\u00ed p\u0159echod od experiment\u016f s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed k budov\u00e1n\u00ed infrastruktury, kter\u00e1 podporuje jejich \u0161irok\u00e9 vyu\u017eit\u00ed, nebo zaveden\u00ed stablecoin\u016f jako b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bkter\u00e1 z t\u011bchto t\u00e9mat se uk\u00e1\u017eou jako p\u0159esn\u00e1, zat\u00edmco jin\u00e1 budou v d\u016fsledku ud\u00e1lost\u00ed znehodnocena. Dohromady v\u0161ak nasti\u0148uj\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed, ve kter\u00e9m instituce, investo\u0159i a tv\u016frci politik funguj\u00ed a p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed si tak svou pozici pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed rok.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">***<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span dir=\"auto\">Od Tylera Durdena<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/prediction-consensus-what-experts-see-coming-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spole\u010dnost Visual Capitalist\u00a0ji\u017e sedm\u00fd rok po sob\u011b\u00a0reviduje progn\u00f3zy a p\u0159edstavuje v\u00e1m \u201ePredik\u010dn\u00ed konsenzus\u201c, shrnut\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8009,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3101,2181,8225,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95766"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95766\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8009"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}