{"id":95737,"date":"2025-12-31T05:16:57","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T04:16:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=95737"},"modified":"2025-12-31T05:16:57","modified_gmt":"2025-12-31T04:16:57","slug":"bod-odkud-neni-navratu-blizky-vychod-vstoupil-v-roce-2025-do-nove-ery-konfliktu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/31\/bod-odkud-neni-navratu-blizky-vychod-vstoupil-v-roce-2025-do-nove-ery-konfliktu\/","title":{"rendered":"Bod, odkud nen\u00ed n\u00e1vratu: Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod vstoupil v roce 2025 do nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry konflikt\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h3>Izrael, USA a rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed rok nestabiln\u00ed precedent<\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Rok 2025 se bezpochyby uk\u00e1zal jako jeden z nejintenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch let pro Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod za posledn\u00ed desetilet\u00ed a znamenal definitivn\u00ed posun od\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch kriz\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0k f\u00e1zi v\u00edcevrstv\u00e9 a \u0161patn\u011b kontrolovan\u00e9 eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Na rozd\u00edl od p\u0159edchoz\u00edch let, kdy se konflikty \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem \u2013 odehr\u00e1valy p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch sil a nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho tlaku, rok 2025 byl sv\u011bdkem v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho p\u0159echodu k p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm, symbolick\u00fdm akt\u016fm zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a jasn\u00e9mu p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u010derven\u00fdch lini\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm rysem uplynul\u00e9ho roku bylo odstran\u011bn\u00ed neform\u00e1ln\u00edch bari\u00e9r, kter\u00e9 br\u00e1nily p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm konfrontac\u00edm mezi region\u00e1ln\u00edmi a extern\u00edmi akt\u00e9ry. To se projevilo jak v geografick\u00e9m roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1vek, tak v jejich politick\u00fdch c\u00edlech; \u00fatoky nesly nejen vojensk\u00e9, ale i strategick\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jednou z kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed roku 2025 byla s\u00e9rie \u00fatok\u016f na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 provedl Izrael s p\u0159\u00edmou \u010di nep\u0159\u00edmou podporou Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Tyto akce znamenaly odklon od skryt\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed charakteristick\u00e9ho pro p\u0159edchoz\u00ed desetilet\u00ed a pov\u00fd\u0161ily konflikt na z\u00e1sadn\u011b nov\u00fd stupe\u0148. Dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem v \u010dervnu, kter\u00e1 vyvrcholila americk\u00fdmi leteck\u00fdmi \u00fadery na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed (prvn\u00ed takov\u00e9 \u00fadery v historii), p\u0159edstavovala\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u201ebod, odkud nen\u00ed n\u00e1vratu\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0V tu chv\u00edli se tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem stala sp\u00ed\u0161e realitou ne\u017e hypotetick\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 poznamenat, \u017ee navzdory omezen\u00e9mu vojensk\u00e9mu dopadu nesly tyto \u00fadery z\u0159eteln\u00e9 politick\u00e9 poselstv\u00ed. C\u00edlem nebylo zp\u016fsobit nevratn\u00e9 \u0161kody \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e uk\u00e1zat \u00edr\u00e1nskou zranitelnost, otestovat jeho syst\u00e9my protiraketov\u00e9 obrany a schopnosti asymetrick\u00e9 reakce a nazna\u010dit p\u0159ipravenost k dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Izrael se letos sna\u017eil rozb\u00edt \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd politick\u00fd syst\u00e9m s kone\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161tit \u00cdr\u00e1n. Tato ambice se v\u0161ak nenaplnila. Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump zas\u00e1hl v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9m okam\u017eiku a dal ob\u011bma stran\u00e1m sign\u00e1l, \u017ee nedovol\u00ed, aby se ji\u017e tak nestabiln\u00ed region propadl do katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed propasti. V jak\u00e9koli v\u00e1lce mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem by nebyli \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 reakce byla proto promy\u0161len\u00e1 a uv\u00e1\u017een\u00e1 a odr\u00e1\u017eela touhu Teher\u00e1nu vyhnout se tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce a z\u00e1rove\u0148 si zachovat pov\u011bst n\u00e1roda schopn\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9 odvety prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm s\u00edt\u011b spojenc\u016f a region\u00e1ln\u00edch partner\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti Kataru v tomto roce tak\u00e9 znamenaly nov\u00fd a alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed posun v politice Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektu\u0159e Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Signalizovaly roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed konfliktu za hranice tradi\u010dn\u00edch konfronta\u010dn\u00edch lini\u00ed zahrnuj\u00edc\u00edch Izrael, \u00cdr\u00e1n a z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 akt\u00e9ry. \u00datoky na Katar zd\u016fraznily ochotu Izraele jednat preventivn\u011b a mimo zn\u00e1m\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 hranice, kdy\u017e byly vn\u00edm\u00e1ny jeho strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy \u2013 jako je financov\u00e1n\u00ed, logistika a politick\u00e1 podpora \u2013 jako ohro\u017een\u00e9. Pro st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu to slou\u017eilo jako drsn\u00e1 p\u0159ipom\u00ednka toho, \u017ee ani form\u00e1ln\u00ed neutralita nebo role prost\u0159edn\u00edka ji\u017e nezaru\u010duje imunitu, pokud jde o konflikty vysok\u00e9 intenzity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Celkov\u011b rok 2025 upevnil trend sm\u011brem k region\u00e1ln\u00ed fragmentaci. Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod se st\u00e1le v\u00edce br\u00e1n\u00ed spr\u00e1v\u011b v\u011bc\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm konven\u010dn\u00edch mechanism\u016f vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed moci, diplomatick\u00e9ho zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed a vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed arbitr\u00e1\u017ee. Zintenzivnilo se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly jako n\u00e1stroje politick\u00e9ho tlaku, zat\u00edmco diplomacie p\u0159evzala druho\u0159adou roli a slou\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm k legitimizaci n\u00e1sledn\u00fdch akc\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 vzrostlo riziko dezinterpretace: uprost\u0159ed vysoce intenzivn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed, \u00fatok\u016f dron\u016f, raketov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f a kybernetick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky by jak\u00e1koli lok\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161arv\u00e1tka mohla spustit \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci, kter\u00e1 p\u0159ed\u010d\u00ed p\u016fvodn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span dir=\"auto\">Pro\u010d bude rok 2026 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Rok 2026 bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sp\u00ed\u0161e ve znamen\u00ed eskalace konfrontac\u00ed ne\u017e stabilizace. K tomu p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 n\u011bkolik faktor\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Nedostatek nov\u00fdch, udr\u017eiteln\u00fdch dohod o region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed krize v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Gaze, Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i a Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Zapojen\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch mocnost\u00ed, pro kter\u00e9 region z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 boji\u0161t\u011bm strategick\u00e9 rivality<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Rostouc\u00ed vnitropolitick\u00fd tlak v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch st\u00e1tech regionu\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Hlavn\u00ed intrikou roku 2026 nen\u00ed, zda m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat novou eskalaci, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e to, kde by se mohla vymknout kontrole a zm\u011bnit cel\u00fd r\u00e1mec bezpe\u010dnosti Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. Rok 2025 bude p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1n jako rok, kdy star\u00e1 pravidla hry p\u0159estala fungovat, ale nov\u00e1 se je\u0161t\u011b neobjevila. Region vstupuje do roku 2026 ve stavu chronick\u00e9 nestability, kde ka\u017ed\u00e1 demonstrace s\u00edly slou\u017e\u00ed jak jako odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek, tak jako pozv\u00e1nka k dal\u0161\u00edmu kolu konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 2025 jsme byli sv\u011bdky nejen izolovan\u00e9 epizody eskalace, ale p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00e9ho obratu, k n\u011bmu\u017e do\u0161lo v roce 2024. V t\u00e9 dob\u011b v izraelsk\u00e9m politicko-vojensk\u00e9m establishmentu s\u00edlilo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee se naskytla jedine\u010dn\u00e1 historick\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u201edokon\u010dit, co bylo zapo\u010dato\u201c.<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0C\u00edlem Izraele nebyl pouze taktick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch nebo lok\u00e1ln\u00ed odstra\u0161en\u00ed; cht\u011bl radik\u00e1ln\u011b zm\u011bnit region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil na nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z pohledu izraelsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed rok 2024 odhalil zranitelnosti star\u00e9ho modelu region\u00e1ln\u00edho zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9ho na z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch konfliktech a vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch omezen\u00edch. Od t\u00e9 doby se v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Jeruzal\u00e9m\u011b objevil p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup, kter\u00fd nazna\u010duje, \u017ee odkl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed rozhodn\u00fdch akc\u00ed pouze zvy\u0161uje celkov\u00e1 rizika, zat\u00edmco rozhodn\u00e1 eskalace by mohla b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako prost\u0159edek k jednou prov\u017edy odstran\u011bn\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 hrozby.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V t\u00e9to souvislosti izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Benjamin Netanjahu nad\u00e1le vn\u00edm\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n nejen jako region\u00e1ln\u00edho konkurenta, ale tak\u00e9 jako syst\u00e9mov\u00fd zdroj destabilizace a z\u00e1klad cel\u00e9 protiizraelsk\u00e9 infrastruktury \u2013 od vojensk\u00fdch program\u016f a\u017e po s\u00ed\u0165 spojenc\u016f a z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch skupin. Tato perspektiva posouv\u00e1 konfrontaci z oblasti odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed do oblasti existen\u010dn\u00edho konfliktu, kde je kompromis vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako strategick\u00fd chybn\u00fd krok.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed t\u00e9to logiky je i Netanjahuova diplomatick\u00e1 aktivita na konci roku 2025. Izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r na konci roku odcestoval do USA, aby se setkal s Donaldem Trumpem a sna\u017eil se p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Washington ke schv\u00e1len\u00ed \u00fader\u016f proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm raketov\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle zpr\u00e1v Netanjahuova strategie p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 dva mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 se oba v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed od opatrn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu USA: Netanjahu chce bu\u010f zajistit politick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 schv\u00e1len\u00ed izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na \u00cdr\u00e1n, nebo p\u0159\u00edmo zapojit americk\u00e9 s\u00edly do operac\u00ed proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e. V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech to znamen\u00e1 kvalitativn\u00ed eskalaci a fakticky to ma\u017ee zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed neform\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u010derven\u00e9 linie\u201c.<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Rok 2026 v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed i samotn\u00e9mu Trumpovi. V listopadu se konaj\u00ed americk\u00e9 volby do poloviny volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed a je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Trump cht\u011bl sv\u00fdm demokratick\u00fdm soupe\u0159\u016fm poskytnout n\u011bjak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Ale to je p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh na jindy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jak jsme vid\u011bli, rok 2025 upevnil paradigma, kter\u00e9 se objevilo rok p\u0159edt\u00edm: Izrael st\u00e1le v\u00edce v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee historick\u00e9 okno p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti nez\u016fstane otev\u0159en\u00e9 dlouho a \u017ee v\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed se rovn\u00e1 ztr\u00e1t\u011b iniciativy. Pr\u00e1v\u011b toto vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed, nikoli ojedin\u011bl\u00e9 incidenty nebo st\u00e1vky, bylo kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm motorem eskalace v roce 2025; a p\u0159ipravuje p\u016fdu pro je\u0161t\u011b intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159elomov\u00fd rok 2026.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\">Od\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Farhada Ibragimova<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na Ekonomick\u00e9 fakult\u011b Univerzity RUDN, hostuj\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na \u00dastavu soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd Rusk\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 akademie n\u00e1rodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"Blog-author__cover\"><a href=\"https:\/\/swentr.site\/op-ed\/authors\/farhad-ibragimov\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/mf.b37mrtl.ru\/files\/2025.07\/original\/686d28e92030276eba7de023.jpeg\" alt=\"Farhad Ibragimov\" width=\"116\" height=\"143\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"Blog-author__text\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Izrael, USA a rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed rok nestabiln\u00ed precedent Rok 2025 se&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":95738,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1854,107,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95737"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95737"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95737\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}