{"id":95693,"date":"2025-12-31T00:20:48","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T23:20:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=95693"},"modified":"2025-12-30T13:22:18","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T12:22:18","slug":"mraky-misto-co2-skutecny-hnaci-motor-klimatu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/31\/mraky-misto-co2-skutecny-hnaci-motor-klimatu\/","title":{"rendered":"Mraky m\u00edsto CO2 \u2013 skute\u010dn\u00fd hnac\u00ed motor klimatu"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Nov\u00e1 studie Univerzity v Miami d\u011bl\u00e1 to, \u010demu se hlavn\u00ed instituce zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se zm\u011bnou klimatu po l\u00e9ta vyh\u00fdbaj\u00ed: zab\u00fdv\u00e1 se re\u00e1ln\u00fdmi daty nam\u00edsto simulac\u00ed. Anal\u00fdza doch\u00e1z\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee hojn\u011b citovan\u00e1 hypot\u00e9za aerosol\u016f jako hlavn\u00edho vin\u00edka rostouc\u00ed tepeln\u00e9 nerovnov\u00e1hy je glob\u00e1ln\u011b hrou s nulov\u00fdm sou\u010dtem. Z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed zde zp\u011btnovazebn\u00ed smy\u010dky v oblasti oblak\u016f a p\u0159irozen\u00e1 prom\u011bnlivost klimatu jako dominantn\u00ed faktory.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159edstavte si: dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00fdch satelitn\u00edch dat, reanal\u00fdz, s\u00e9ri\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 a nakonec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u201ehlavn\u00ed regul\u00e1tor CO2\u201c ovl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed klima jako m\u00fdtick\u00fd knofl\u00edk topen\u00ed. Univerzita v Miami nyn\u00ed publikovala v \u010dasopise Science Advances studii s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adv9429\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zanedbateln\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek aerosol\u016f k ned\u00e1vn\u00fdm trend\u016fm v energetick\u00e9 nerovnov\u00e1ze Zem\u011b<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> \u201c, kter\u00e1 se bo\u0159\u00ed s modelovou m\u00e1ni\u00ed a skute\u010dn\u011b m\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky. V\u00fdsledek: glob\u00e1ln\u00ed tepeln\u00e1 nerovnov\u00e1ha nen\u00ed zp\u016fsobena politikou \u010dist\u00e9ho vzduchu nebo aerosol\u016f, ale oblaky a p\u0159irozenou prom\u011bnlivost\u00ed klimatu. To zn\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159, jako by k tomu m\u011bla co \u0159\u00edct samotn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edroda \u2013 jak nepohodln\u00e9 pro dogmatiky CO2.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci prok\u00e1zali v\u00fdkon, kter\u00e9ho se model\u00e1\u0159\u016fm zat\u00edm nepoda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout: \u00fa\u010dinky aerosol\u016f na severn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed polokouli se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u011b vz\u00e1jemn\u011b ru\u0161\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 oblasti na severu maj\u00ed ve vzduchu m\u00e9n\u011b pevn\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stic, co\u017e lok\u00e1ln\u011b sni\u017euje odraz mrak\u016f a umo\u017e\u0148uje pr\u016fchod v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho mno\u017estv\u00ed slune\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed, jih se opl\u00e1c\u00ed p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edmi aerosoly. Australsk\u00e9 po\u017e\u00e1ry bu\u0161e v letech 2019\/20 a podvodn\u00ed sopka Hunga Tonga v roce 2022 uvolnily do atmosf\u00e9ry obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stic, \u010d\u00edm\u017e rozjasnily mraky a zv\u00fd\u0161ily odraz slune\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed. \u010cist\u00fd efekt na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b se nakonec bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed nule \u2013 co\u017e fakticky zdiskredituje hypot\u00e9zu o aerosolech jako hlavn\u00edm vin\u00edkovi tepeln\u00e9 bilance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Studie rovn\u011b\u017e jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed nerovnost v energetick\u00e9 bilanci je zp\u016fsobena prim\u00e1rn\u011b men\u0161\u00edm mno\u017estv\u00edm odra\u017een\u00e9ho slune\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed, nikoli men\u0161\u00edm mno\u017estv\u00edm vyza\u0159ovan\u00e9ho tepla. Mezi lety 2003 a 2023 se p\u0159ebytek energie zvy\u0161oval p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 0,5 wattu na metr \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00ed za desetilet\u00ed, proto\u017ee Zem\u011b jednodu\u0161e absorbuje v\u00edce slune\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed. Role zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ovzdu\u0161\u00ed? Region\u00e1ln\u00ed faktor, nikoli glob\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159evratn\u00e1 zm\u011bna. V\u011bdci tak elegantn\u011b vyvracej\u00ed teorii, \u017ee politika kontroly zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ovzdu\u0161\u00ed ne\u00famysln\u011b p\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1la planetu. Kdy\u017e vezmeme v \u00favahu ob\u011b hemisf\u00e9ry, z tohoto argumentu zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen m\u00e1lo.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-die-hemispharen-wippe-ein-albtraum-fur-co2-fanatiker\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hemisf\u00e9rick\u00e1 houpa\u010dka: No\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra pro fanatiky CO2<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dva nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstupy k m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 aerosolov\u00fd index ze satelitu MODIS a reanal\u00fdza s\u00edran\u016f MERRA-2 na \u00farovni zem\u011b (925 hPa) \u2013 ukazuj\u00ed stejn\u00fd obraz: pokles na severu, n\u00e1r\u016fst na jihu. Tyto glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trendy jsou v\u00fdsledkem p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f a zp\u011btnovazebn\u00edch smy\u010dek teplota-obla\u010dnost. V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci tak\u00e9 poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee mnoho klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f podce\u0148uje dopad p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch aerosol\u016f na jihu, proto\u017ee se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na politiku zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed na severn\u00ed polokouli.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Vedouc\u00ed autor Chanyoung Park, doktorand na Rosenstiel School, hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201evyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00e9 p\u0159esouv\u00e1 pozornost na skute\u010dn\u00e9 faktory: chov\u00e1n\u00ed oblak\u016f a p\u0159irozenou prom\u011bnlivost. To je pozoruhodn\u011b v\u011bcn\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak \u0159\u00edct: \u201eV modelech jste upravovali nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9 parametry.\u201c Spoluautor Brian Soden to \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159\u00edmo\u010da\u0159eji \u2013 aerosoly nevysv\u011btluj\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed; vz\u00e1jemn\u011b se ru\u0161\u00ed. Z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed jen oblaka, dynamika oce\u00e1n\u016f a atmosf\u00e9ry a chaotick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed cykly, kter\u00e9 se v narativu o CO2 objevily pouze jako nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd vedlej\u0161\u00ed produkt. Fakt, kter\u00fdm se zab\u00fdvaly i p\u0159edchoz\u00ed studie.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=2005143253490749744&amp;lang=de&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Freport24.news%2Fwolken-statt-co2-der-wahre-klimatreiber%2F&amp;sessionId=5e557c963332380f2c6b19472ae7948e11b2fb93&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"2005143253490749744\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"h-wolken-als-klima-tresor-die-neue-unberechenbarkeit\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mraky jako klimatick\u00e9 klenby: Nov\u00e1 nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Studie nazna\u010duje, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e1 nerovnov\u00e1ha je v z\u00e1sad\u011b probl\u00e9mem radiace \u2013 Zem\u011b odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b slune\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed, proto\u017ee teplej\u0161\u00ed povrchy m\u011bn\u00ed strukturu oblak\u016f. Toto je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed mechanismus, kter\u00fd konven\u010dn\u00ed modely dlouho p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eely. Oblaky funguj\u00ed jako prom\u011bnliv\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 klenby, kter\u00e9 absorbuj\u00ed nebo odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed slune\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed. Jejich dynamika je spojena s povrchov\u00fdmi teplotami, oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi cykly a p\u0159irozen\u00fdmi aerosolov\u00fdmi \u0161oky \u2013 nikoli s koncentrac\u00ed CO2 jako jedin\u00fdm regul\u00e1torem. D\u00edky tomu nen\u00ed klima \u201ejednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed\u201c, ale m\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee ji\u017en\u00ed polokoule tento efekt vyva\u017euje p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edmi aerosoly, ukazuje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jednu v\u011bc: glob\u00e1ln\u00ed bilanci nelze extrapolovat z region\u00e1ln\u00edch diagram\u016f sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed. Modely, kter\u00e9 berou v \u00favahu pouze severn\u00ed polokouli, nevyhnuteln\u011b vedou k klimatick\u00fdm chybn\u00fdm atribuc\u00edm. Studie je tedy tak\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00edmou kritikou v\u00fdb\u011bru konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch model\u016f a politicky zaujat\u00fdch kauz\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f. Park a Soden nenab\u00edzej\u00ed ideologii, ale logiku m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed: pokud se efekty vz\u00e1jemn\u011b ru\u0161\u00ed, nejsou prim\u00e1rn\u00edm faktorem. A pokud je dominantn\u00edm faktorem odraz z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed, je t\u0159eba m\u011b\u0159it oblaky, nikoli hladiny CO2.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-fazit-mehr-messung-weniger-co2-liturgie\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br: V\u00edce m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, m\u00e9n\u011b liturgie CO2<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato pr\u00e1ce je v\u011bdeck\u00fdm povzbuzen\u00edm, proto\u017ee stav\u00ed ot\u00e1zku klimatu naruby: nejd\u0159\u00edve data, pak modely \u2013 a ne naopak. Ukazuje, \u017ee trendy aerosol\u016f jsou glob\u00e1ln\u011b zanedbateln\u00e9, proto\u017ee se navz\u00e1jem hemisf\u00e9ricky neutralizuj\u00ed. Zam\u011b\u0159uje pozornost na skute\u010dn\u00e9 akceler\u00e1tory tepeln\u00e9 nerovnov\u00e1hy: odra\u017een\u00e9 slune\u010dn\u00ed sv\u011btlo, zp\u011btn\u00e9 vazby od oblak\u016f a p\u0159irozenou klimatickou variabilitu. CO2 se jev\u00ed jako faktor pozad\u00ed, nikoli jako v\u0161edominantn\u00ed hlavn\u00ed regul\u00e1tor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nov\u00e1 studie Univerzity v Miami d\u011bl\u00e1 to, \u010demu se hlavn\u00ed instituce zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se zm\u011bnou klimatu&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":95694,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2692,873,6356,839],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95693"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}