{"id":95508,"date":"2025-12-28T00:14:36","date_gmt":"2025-12-27T23:14:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=95508"},"modified":"2025-12-27T11:00:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-27T10:00:12","slug":"meteorolog-maue-pokud-se-vrati-zima-stoleti-s-nemeckem-je-konec","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/28\/meteorolog-maue-pokud-se-vrati-zima-stoleti-s-nemeckem-je-konec\/","title":{"rendered":"Meteorolog Maue: \u201ePokud se vr\u00e1t\u00ed zima stolet\u00ed, s N\u011bmeckem je konec\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud bychom za\u017eili dal\u0161\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b tuhou zimu, jako byla ta na za\u010d\u00e1tku 60. let, byla by to pro N\u011bmecko a mnoho dal\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed katastrofa. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b tuh\u00e9 l\u00e9to by nemohlo zp\u016fsobit tak rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 \u0161kody.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Meteorolog Dr. Ryan Maue u\u010dinil na X p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, kterou Berl\u00edn nechce sly\u0161et: Pokud by se s dne\u0161n\u00ed s\u00edt\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie opakovala zima jako ta z let 1962\/63, pak je N\u011bmecko jednodu\u0161e odsouzeno k z\u00e1niku. \u201eN\u011bmecko to nezvl\u00e1dne,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd konjunktiv, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zdvo\u0159ilost, jen chladn\u00e1 logika mu\u017ee, kter\u00fd ch\u00e1pe, \u017ee v\u011btrn\u00e9 turb\u00edny a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panely nemohou v zim\u011b nahradit funk\u010dn\u00ed zdroj energie.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=2004052095436194250&amp;lang=cs&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Freport24.news%2Fmeteorologe-maue-wenn-der-jahrhundertwinter-zurueckkommt-ist-deutschland-am-ende%2F&amp;sessionId=36799a89ecf9ec20e33c7a396989385493626b28&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"2004052095436194250\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Meteorolog hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201emimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9m nedostatku energie\u201c \u2013 co\u017e znamen\u00e1: Zem\u011b m\u00e1 v\u00fdpadek proudu stejn\u011b velk\u00fd, jakou zp\u016fsobil politickou aroganci. A pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f, ze v\u0161ech dob, meteorologick\u00e9 modely nazna\u010duj\u00ed mraziv\u00e9 obdob\u00ed pro Evropu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Maue odkazuje na ned\u00e1vnou studii s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/met.70077\"><span dir=\"auto\">O souvislosti mezi pov\u011btrnostn\u00edmi re\u017eimy a nedostatkem energie b\u011bhem zimy ve 28 evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> \u201c v \u010dasopise Meteorological Applications, kter\u00e1 zkoum\u00e1 vztah mezi rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi pov\u011btrnostn\u00edmi vzory a nedostatkem energie v Evrop\u011b. Auto\u0159i analyzuj\u00ed, jak by se sou\u010dasn\u00fd evropsk\u00fd elektrick\u00fd syst\u00e9m vyrovnal s historicky extr\u00e9mn\u00edmi zimami. Odpov\u011b\u010f je jasn\u00e1 i nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e1: \u0161patn\u011b, velmi \u0161patn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci definuj\u00ed \u201eenergetick\u00fd nedostatek\u201c p\u0159esn\u011b jako to, co Berl\u00edn l\u00e9ta pop\u00edr\u00e1: okam\u017eiky, kdy popt\u00e1vka po elekt\u0159in\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161uje v\u00fdrobu z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f \u2013 ne jen m\u00edrn\u011b, ale \u201ev\u00fdznamn\u011b\u201c. Modelovali pevnou energetickou s\u00ed\u0165 na z\u00e1klad\u011b dne\u0161n\u00ed infrastruktury v kombinaci s historick\u00fdmi \u00fadaji o po\u010das\u00ed. V\u00fdsledek: To, co bylo v minulosti ji\u017e tak v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9, by dnes bylo katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed, proto\u017ee tv\u016frci politik systematicky vy\u0159azuj\u00ed z provozu konven\u010dn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny schopn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00edho zat\u00ed\u017een\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Studie ukazuje, \u017ee nedostatek elekt\u0159iny vznik\u00e1 z r\u016fzn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00ed\u010din v z\u00e1vislosti na regionu. V chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch s men\u0161\u00edm v\u011btrem je probl\u00e9mem popt\u00e1vka: pokud se sou\u010dasn\u011b zapnou miliony topn\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, syst\u00e9m se zhrout\u00ed. V teplej\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch, kter\u00e9 jsou siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na v\u011btrn\u00e9 energii, je probl\u00e9mem jej\u00ed v\u00fdroba: pokud nefouk\u00e1 v\u00edtr, nen\u00ed elekt\u0159ina, bez ohledu na to, kolik v\u011btrn\u00fdch turb\u00edn je instalov\u00e1no. Auto\u0159i kategorizuj\u00ed zimu do \u0161esti pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch re\u017eim\u016f, z nich\u017e atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy \u2013 tedy chladn\u00e9, bezv\u011btrn\u00e9 z\u00f3ny vysok\u00e9ho tlaku \u2013 jsou hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu dn\u016f s nedostatkem. Tyto blok\u00e1dy nepostihuj\u00ed jen jednu zemi, ale polovinu kontinentu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci tak\u00e9 simulovali mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b krutou zimu 1962\/63 s vyu\u017eit\u00edm dne\u0161n\u00ed elektrick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b. Jejich dramatick\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br: takov\u00e9 dlouhodob\u00e9 v\u00fdpadky proudu, jak\u00e9 jsme za\u017eili tehdy, by spustily vleklou celokontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed elekt\u0159inovou krizi, kter\u00e1 by p\u0159ed\u010dila cokoli, co s\u00ed\u0165 za\u017eila v posledn\u00edch desetilet\u00edch. A Evropan\u00e9 na takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ani zdaleka nejsou p\u0159ipraveni.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Skute\u010dn\u011b explozivn\u00ed detail se skr\u00fdv\u00e1 v drobn\u00e9m p\u00edsmu: nedostatek energie je siln\u011b prostorov\u011b korelov\u00e1n. Pokud N\u011bmecko zamrzne, zamrznou i jeho soused\u00e9 \u2013 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kv\u016fli nedostatku kapacity pro export elekt\u0159iny. Koncept \u201eprost\u011b si ji koup\u00edme v zahrani\u010d\u00ed\u201c se ukazuje jako stejn\u00e1 poh\u00e1dkov\u00e1 logika jako \u201ev zim\u011b v\u017edycky n\u011bkde sv\u00edt\u00ed slunce\u201c. Pokud budou v\u0161ichni v deficitu ve stejnou dobu, nikdo nebude \u017e\u00e1dnou elekt\u0159inu exportovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ale ideologicky zaslepen\u00ed, zelen\u011b sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00ed fanatici net-zero v Berl\u00edn\u011b a Bruselu to sly\u0161et necht\u011bj\u00ed. Fakta a tvrd\u00e1 matematika? To jen naru\u0161uje propagandistick\u00fd obraz \u201ezelen\u00e9, CO2 neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed budoucnosti\u201c. Realita? No, to je irelevantn\u00ed. A co kdy\u017e des\u00edtky nebo dokonce statis\u00edce lid\u00ed b\u011bhem takov\u00e9 rekordn\u00ed zimy umrznou? No, pro stoupence nov\u00e9ho klimatick\u00e9ho n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed jsou to prost\u011b nutn\u00e9 ob\u011bti klimatick\u00e9mu bohu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pokud bychom za\u017eili dal\u0161\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b tuhou zimu, jako byla ta na za\u010d\u00e1tku 60. let, byla&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":95509,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1299,371,84,1101],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95508"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95508\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95509"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}