{"id":94982,"date":"2025-12-20T00:20:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T23:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94982"},"modified":"2025-12-19T12:16:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T11:16:32","slug":"brandon-smith-narazi-usa-na-deflacni-zed-nebo-fed-v-roce-2026-znovu-spusti-inflaci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/20\/brandon-smith-narazi-usa-na-deflacni-zed-nebo-fed-v-roce-2026-znovu-spusti-inflaci\/","title":{"rendered":"Brandon Smith: Naraz\u00ed USA na defla\u010dn\u00ed ze\u010f \u2013 nebo Fed v roce 2026 znovu spust\u00ed inflaci?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V syst\u00e9mu ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9m keynesi\u00e1nskou ekonomi\u00ed je slovo \u201edeflace\u201c tabu \u2013 jako vyslovit jm\u00e9no Donalda Trumpa nahlas v p\u0159epln\u011bn\u00e9m seattlesk\u00e9m studiu j\u00f3gy. Pronikav\u00e1 reakce, kter\u00e9 se \u010dlov\u011bk do\u010dk\u00e1, obvykle nestoj\u00ed za n\u00e1mahu rozumn\u00e9 diskuse. Ka\u017ed\u00fd prvek modern\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiky je navr\u017een tak, aby zabr\u00e1nil defla\u010dn\u00ed ud\u00e1losti. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 politika centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky se sna\u017e\u00ed um\u011ble vyt\u00e1hnout ekonomiku z deflace pomoc\u00ed v\u0161ech nezbytn\u00fdch fiat stimul\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Deflace samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed v\u017edy \u0161patn\u00e1 v\u011bc. N\u011bkdy je to ho\u0159k\u00fd l\u00e9k pot\u0159ebn\u00fd k n\u00e1prav\u011b mnoha probl\u00e9m\u016f zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch \u0161patn\u00fdmi investicemi, korpor\u00e1tn\u00edmi podvody, z\u00e1vislost\u00ed na spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch dluz\u00edch, vl\u00e1dn\u00edmi intervencemi a tak d\u00e1le. Vid\u011bli jsme to b\u011bhem krachu v roce 2008 \u2013 ale Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m odm\u00edtl nechat tuto l\u00e9\u010dbu proj\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b jako mnoho jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed se i USA distancovaly od konceptu finan\u010dn\u00edch d\u016fsledk\u016f. Pokud se v\u0161ak gigantick\u00fd americk\u00fd syst\u00e9m vyhne odpov\u011bdnosti, n\u00e1klady pro budouc\u00ed generace by mohly b\u00fdt obrovsk\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee n\u00e1m nyn\u00ed zb\u00fdv\u00e1 17 let nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 intervence a nevyhnuteln\u00e1 stagfla\u010dn\u00ed krize, kterou zp\u016fsobily. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee keynesi\u00e1nci jako Paul Krugman, Janet Yellenov\u00e1 a Ben Bernanke riziko inflace bagatelizovali nebo dokonce p\u0159\u00edmo pop\u00edrali, ukazuje p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm jednu v\u011bc: v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee inflace je pro \u0161irokou populaci \u0161patn\u00e1 (pro\u010d by se jinak sna\u017eili ji skr\u00fdvat?).<\/span><\/p>\n

Pop\u00edrali realitu tak vehementn\u011b, \u017ee vypadali hloup\u011b, kdy\u017e USA v roce 2022 zas\u00e1hla m\u00edra spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen 9,1 %. D\u016fsledky stimula\u010dn\u00edch politik jsou nyn\u00ed nepopirateln\u00e9 a keynesi\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed \u201eexperti\u201c se uk\u00e1zali jako k ni\u010demu \u2013 to ale neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee se v\u011bci zm\u011bn\u00ed k lep\u0161\u00edmu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moje trval\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka ohledn\u011b n\u00e1vratu Donalda Trumpa do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu proto zn\u00ed: Jak banky vyt\u00e1hnou koberec zpod t\u00e9to administrativy? Bude to defla\u010dn\u00ed krize \u2013 nebo je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed krize?<\/span><\/p>\n

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Jak jsem minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc poznamenal ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku\u00a0<\/span>\u201eInflexn\u00ed bod: Uzav\u00edrka \u010dinnosti americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a podivn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u201c, ceny zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159ipraveny na parabolick\u00fd r\u016fst (nad r\u00e1mec cenov\u00fdch r\u016fst\u016f, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e byly zaznamen\u00e1ny v tomto roce). To nazna\u010duje hroz\u00edc\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky \u2013 nebo alespo\u0148 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f a centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank ohledn\u011b krizov\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e1 spust\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed inflaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee je to \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zp\u016fsobeno obrovsk\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi platbami, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da platit ze sv\u00e9ho st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho dluhu (v sou\u010dasnosti 250 miliard dolar\u016f ka\u017ed\u00e9 t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce). Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky a investo\u0159i skupuj\u00ed zlato a st\u0159\u00edbro \u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00fd dluh se stane nestabiln\u00edm, co\u017e by mohlo po\u0161kodit hodnotu dolaru nebo spustit dal\u0161\u00ed kolo kvantitativn\u00edho uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed (QE).<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc, navzdory \u00farokov\u00e9 politice Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu se spot\u0159eba v\u00fdrazn\u011b nezpomalila a zadlu\u017een\u00ed nad\u00e1le roste na rekordn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. Zat\u00edmco r\u016fst indexu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen se ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s Bidenovou \u00e9rou zna\u010dn\u011b zpomalil, ceny neklesly natolik, aby pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu Ameri\u010danovi poskytly \u00falevu. Pokud c\u00edlem Fedu p\u0159i zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb bylo utlumit popt\u00e1vku, \u017ealostn\u011b selhal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem ji\u017e poznamenal, na za\u010d\u00e1tku 80. let musela centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 %, aby ukon\u010dila desetilet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00ed stagfla\u010dn\u00ed krizi \u2013 od \u010deho\u017e jsme byli po pandemii na m\u00edle vzd\u00e1leni. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, Fed nalepil n\u00e1plast na infla\u010dn\u00ed st\u0159elnou r\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale je deflace za rohem? Existuj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky, \u017ee by k n\u00ed mohlo doj\u00edt. Nap\u0159\u00edklad po\u010det voln\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst se loni sn\u00ed\u017eil o 500 000 \u2013 a\u010dkoli je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 30 % v\u0161ech inzerovan\u00fdch pozic jsou takzvan\u00e1 \u201educha\u201c, kter\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti neexistuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee v roce 2025 do\u0161lo k n\u00e1r\u016fstu propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, 27 % z nich souviselo se \u0161krty ve vl\u00e1dn\u00ed byrokracii podle z\u00e1kona DOGE. Propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v kancel\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edstech se v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku zv\u00fd\u0161ilo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 19 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh USA se v roce 2025 zv\u00fd\u0161il o 2,2 bilionu dolar\u016f. Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry rostou p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 190 miliard dolar\u016f za \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Celkov\u00fd vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh dos\u00e1hl 18,5 bilionu dolar\u016f. V ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku tato expanze dluhu utlum\u00ed spot\u0159ebu \u2013 ale zat\u00edm se nezd\u00e1, \u017ee by se tak stalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu znateln\u00e9mu oslaben\u00ed maloobchodn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f ani p\u016fj\u010dek. Navzdory sl\u00e1bnouc\u00edmu indexu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed ceny v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed. Podm\u00ednky nezbytn\u00e9 pro to, aby deflace sn\u00ed\u017eila ceny, jednodu\u0161e nejsou spln\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1le m\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed defla\u010dn\u00ed ud\u00e1lost \u2013 ale a\u017e pot\u00e9, co ekonomiku zas\u00e1hne dal\u0161\u00ed vlna inflace. Pokud Fed sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby natolik, \u017ee index spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen op\u011bt prudce vzroste (co\u017e by nem\u011blo trvat dlouho), rostouc\u00ed ceny nakonec udus\u00ed spot\u0159ebu. Pokud se tak nestane, bude muset Fed zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 maxima \u2013 stejn\u011b jako to ud\u011blal v 80. letech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tohle je ta past typu \u201eHlava dvacet dva\u201c, o kter\u00e9 mluv\u00edm u\u017e l\u00e9ta, a ta jen tak nezmiz\u00ed. Volba je nakonec na Fedu: zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e v posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech letech \u2013 nebo znovu stimulovat ekonomiku. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, pokud bude centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka pokra\u010dovat ve sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, j\u00edzda na horsk\u00e9 dr\u00e1ze za\u010dne v roce 2026. Sledujte obnovenou nestabilitu indexu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen v tomto l\u00e9t\u011b a na podzim.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova cla \u2013 pokud budou st\u00e1le v platnosti \u2013 budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b obvi\u0148ov\u00e1na ze skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee odvr\u00e1tila cenovou krizi, kterou mnoho kritik\u016f p\u0159edpov\u00eddalo. Jak se to stalo? Proto\u017ee kritici nezohlednili masivn\u00ed p\u0159ir\u00e1\u017eky, kter\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdrobci p\u0159idali k maloobchodn\u00edm cen\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cena mnoha produkt\u016f se po dosa\u017een\u00ed americk\u00e9ho trhu zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru o 250 %. U n\u011bkter\u00fdch od\u011bv\u016f je p\u0159ir\u00e1\u017eka je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se dostanou do obchod\u016f, p\u0159es 900 %. N\u00e1klady na pr\u00e1ci a materi\u00e1l v Asii jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9, zat\u00edmco kone\u010dn\u00e9 ceny v Americe jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e9. V\u011bt\u0161ina mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch korporac\u00ed proto m\u016f\u017ee snadno absorbovat cla, ani\u017e by v\u00fdrazn\u011b zat\u011b\u017eovala spot\u0159ebitele.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle odhad\u016f zalo\u017een\u00fdch na datech z v\u00fdzkumu Harvardu vedla cla od sv\u00e9ho zaveden\u00ed k n\u00e1r\u016fstu indexu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen pouze o 0,7 % \u2013 co\u017e je zanedbateln\u00e9 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s katastrofick\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi mnoha mainstreamov\u00fdch ekonom\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inflace nicm\u00e9n\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 hrozbou a cla jsou vynikaj\u00edc\u00edm ob\u011btn\u00edm ber\u00e1nkem, proto\u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed jim nerozum\u00ed. Nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 defla\u010dn\u00ed korekci \u2013 ani od roku 2008, ani od zaveden\u00ed stimula\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed v souvislosti s pandemi\u00ed. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee vysok\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka nebyla prolomena a \u00faspory nerostou (m\u00edra osobn\u00edch \u00faspor v USA klesla v letech 2024\u20132025 na rekordn\u00ed minima). V ob\u011bhu z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00e9 dolary a pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1soba FRED-M2 nad\u00e1le roste. Syst\u00e9m nikdy nevzal sv\u016fj l\u00e9k.<\/span><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee pokud se centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka vr\u00e1t\u00ed k ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m, zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed exploduje na je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. Inflace se vr\u00e1t\u00ed \u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b do t\u0159et\u00edho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2026, za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee Fed bude pokra\u010dovat ve sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb i v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova administrativa podnik\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by mohla pomoci utlumit ceny. Masov\u00e9 deportace jist\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po zbo\u017e\u00ed a bydlen\u00ed, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddku a ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny. To se ale nestane pot\u0159ebn\u00fdm tempem \u2013 pokud Trump nenajde zp\u016fsob, jak alespo\u0148 zdvojn\u00e1sobit sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed deportace. \u00da\u010dinky jsou kumulativn\u00ed a dopad na trhy se projev\u00ed a\u017e za n\u011bkolik let.<\/span><\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b nevid\u00edm zp\u016fsob, jak se v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu vyhnout dal\u0161\u00ed inflaci bez dramatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u00e1mce nebo historick\u00e9ho kroku Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd by zv\u00fd\u0161il \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na \u00farove\u0148, jak\u00e1 tu nebyla od stagfla\u010dn\u00ed krize p\u0159ed 50 lety.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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V syst\u00e9mu ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9m keynesi\u00e1nskou ekonomi\u00ed je slovo \u201edeflace\u201c tabu \u2013 jako vyslovit jm\u00e9no Donalda Trumpa…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29262,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,45,1068,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94982"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94982\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}