{"id":94845,"date":"2025-12-18T00:26:45","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T23:26:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94845"},"modified":"2025-12-17T22:39:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T21:39:20","slug":"uriel-araujo-pripojuje-se-iran-k-muslimskemu-nato-pakt-mezi-saudskou-arabii-a-pakistanem-a-menici-se-svetovy-rad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/18\/uriel-araujo-pripojuje-se-iran-k-muslimskemu-nato-pakt-mezi-saudskou-arabii-a-pakistanem-a-menici-se-svetovy-rad\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: P\u0159ipojuje se \u00cdr\u00e1n k \u201emuslimsk\u00e9mu NATO\u201c? Pakt mezi Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zpr\u00e1vy o tom, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n usiluje o u\u017e\u0161\u00ed vazby na sa\u00fadsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nskou obrannou dohodu, vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b \u00fadajn\u00e9ho \u201emuslimsk\u00e9ho NATO\u201c. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d i Rij\u00e1d jsou propojeny se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi strukturami, tento krok odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e pragmatick\u00e9 vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se konflikt\u016fm ne\u017e ideologickou konvergenci. Tureck\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed ambice a nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dosah NATO hraj\u00ed v Teher\u00e1nsk\u00fdch kalkulac\u00edch velkou roli.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Objevily se zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem o p\u0159ipojen\u00ed se k \u201eDohod\u011b o strategick\u00e9 vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obran\u011b\u201c mezi P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed. Al\u00ed Larijani, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd tajemn\u00edk Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>nav\u0161t\u00edvil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d, co\u017e signalizovalo \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159eskupen\u00ed a ochotu Teher\u00e1nu zapojit se do tohoto nov\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho r\u00e1mce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tce nato \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 v\u00fdslovn\u011b signalizovali sv\u016fj z\u00e1jem o\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ipojen\u00ed se<\/span><\/a>\u00a0k sa\u00fadsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 dohod\u011b, co\u017e analytiky p\u0159im\u011blo k ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m ohledn\u011b strategick\u00e9ho kalkulu Teher\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled se tento krok jev\u00ed jako protich\u016fdn\u00fd. \u00cdr\u00e1n se dlouhodob\u011b stav\u00ed do opozice v\u016f\u010di region\u00e1ln\u00ed roli Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie, a to i p\u0159es prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed rozhovory\u00a0<\/span>o sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v posledn\u00edch letech. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n zase historicky\u00a0<\/span>balancuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0mezi Washingtonem, Pekingem, Rij\u00e1dem a Teher\u00e1nem. A\u0165 je to jakkoli, geopolitika Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu je st\u00e1le v\u00edce poh\u00e1n\u011bna pragmatick\u00fdm vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00edm se rizik\u016fm sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e n\u011b\u010d\u00edm, co by se podobalo ideologick\u00e9 \u010distot\u011b. Ve skute\u010dnosti z\u00e1jem \u00cdr\u00e1nu o tuto smlouvu nesouvis\u00ed ani tak s ideologickou konvergenc\u00ed, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e s jeho postaven\u00edm v rychle se m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je formov\u00e1no nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm dosahem NATO, ambicemi Turecka a mnohostrannost\u00ed (a jej\u00edmi limity).<\/span><\/p>\n

Samotn\u00e1 \u201edohoda o strategick\u00e9 vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obran\u011b\u201c mezi Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem nen\u00ed nov\u00e1, ale jej\u00ed d\u016fsledky se vyv\u00edjej\u00ed. Pakt institucionalizuje vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci, sd\u00edlen\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed, spole\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdcvik a krizovou koordinaci mezi Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dem a Rij\u00e1dem. Kontroverzn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee o\u017eivil dlouhodob\u00e9 spekulace, \u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie by mohla spadat pod de facto p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk, jak\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0expert Spencer Plunkett , \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se pos\u00edlila odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed strategie Rij\u00e1du bez otev\u0159en\u00e9ho \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed politici dokonce navrhli\u00a0<\/span>roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0tohoto r\u00e1mce i na dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty s muslimskou v\u011bt\u0161inou. To, co kdysi b\u00fdvalo bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dohodou, se tak nyn\u00ed nov\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed osa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turecko se nevyhnuteln\u011b dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do hry. Ankara, \u010dlen NATO s rostouc\u00edmi ambicemi v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii, na ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze a ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii, by mohla m\u00edt z\u00e1jem o p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed se k sa\u00fadsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu obrann\u00e9mu r\u00e1mci, ne-li se k n\u011bmu form\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ipojit, spekuluj\u00ed analytici. Lze si p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee P\u00e1kist\u00e1n,\u00a0<\/span>\u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a Turecko sou\u010dasn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed koridor pro\u00a0<\/span>roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed obchodu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a propojen\u00ed mezi ji\u017en\u00ed Asi\u00ed, Bl\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdchodem a Evropou. Infrastruktura se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 neodd\u011blitelnou od bezpe\u010dnosti. Pro \u00cdr\u00e1n je v\u0161ak tureck\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>neoosmansk\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00fasil\u00ed st\u00e1le zdrojem strategick\u00fdch obav, nikoli uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 motivace k p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed se k t\u00e9to \u201eose\u201c spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b v vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Turecka, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e v jeho p\u0159ijet\u00ed. Koordinace Ankary\u00a0<\/span>s NATO<\/span><\/a>\u00a0( jakkoli je\u00a0<\/span>slo\u017eit\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0), jej\u00ed prohlubuj\u00edc\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edtomnost v \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a jej\u00ed vliv ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed v Teher\u00e1nu poplach. Schopnost Turecka roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vliv NATO na ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz a do turkmensk\u00e9 St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie je z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pohledu dostate\u010dn\u011b destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed, aby si vy\u017e\u00e1dala preventivn\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 man\u00e9vry. Nen\u00ed tedy divu, \u017ee se Teher\u00e1n rad\u011bji za\u010dle\u0148uje do region\u00e1ln\u00edch struktur, kde lze tureck\u00fd vliv oslabit nebo alespo\u0148 omezit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato logika tak\u00e9 vysv\u011btluje opatrn\u00e9 sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed. Teher\u00e1n ch\u00e1pe, \u017ee trval\u00e1 rivalita s Rij\u00e1dem prosp\u00edv\u00e1 pouze vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm mocnostem, zejm\u00e9na bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed struktu\u0159e USA v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. P\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00edm se Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii \u00cdr\u00e1n sni\u017euje riziko obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed, sni\u017euje pravd\u011bpodobnost eskalace v zastoupen\u00ed a stav\u00ed se do role zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9ho region\u00e1ln\u00edho akt\u00e9ra. Sta\u010d\u00ed \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee se n\u00e1hle objevila absolutn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bra, ale nazna\u010duje to spole\u010dn\u00fd z\u00e1jem o deeskalaci a autonomii od z\u00e1padn\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch dikt\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 osloven\u00ed P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu se zase \u0159\u00edd\u00ed podobn\u00fdm vzorem. Navzdory periodick\u00e9mu nap\u011bt\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b incident\u016f na hranic\u00edch a p\u0159el\u00e9v\u00e1n\u00ed militant\u016f, Teher\u00e1n uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du jako mostu mezi ji\u017en\u00ed Asi\u00ed, Bl\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdchodem a \u010d\u00ednskou iniciativou P\u00e1s a stezka. Jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2024, nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi \u00edr\u00e1nsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem se odehr\u00e1valo pr\u00e1v\u011b uprost\u0159ed vzestupu \u00cdr\u00e1nu jako nov\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii, co\u017e konfrontaci pro ob\u011b strany \u010dinilo st\u00e1le n\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Doposud pragmatismus p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eil nad eskalac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejv\u00edce ironi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm aspektem cel\u00e9 t\u00e9to debaty je v\u0161ak opakuj\u00edc\u00ed se tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee sa\u00fadsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 obrann\u00e1 dohoda p\u0159edstavuje zrod \u201emuslimsk\u00e9ho NATO\u201c. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie jsou koneckonc\u016f oba ozna\u010deny za hlavn\u00ed spojence mimo NATO (MNNA): Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie byla takto ozna\u010dena\u00a0<\/span>v listopadu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, zat\u00edmco P\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u00a0<\/span>od roku 2004.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Tolik k pojmu \u201eanti-NATO\u201c blok. Koment\u00e1to\u0159i poznamenali\u00a0<\/span>,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u017ee tato dohoda m\u016f\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nu uvolnit p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee se nejedn\u00e1 o \u00fapln\u00fd rozchod se z\u00e1padn\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm \u0159\u00e1dem.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci CSIS podobn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>poznamenali<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee a\u010dkoliv si pakt vyp\u016fj\u010duje jazyk ve stylu NATO, postr\u00e1d\u00e1 institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed soudr\u017enost a politickou jednotu NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento rozpor vypov\u00edd\u00e1 v\u0161e o dob\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed multipolarity. St\u00e1ty se st\u00e1le v\u00edce zapojuj\u00ed do p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch se, n\u011bkdy i zjevn\u011b nekonzistentn\u00edch uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed. Zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed si vz\u00e1jemnou ochranu, dvojitou ochranu a odm\u00edtaj\u00ed si vybrat stranu, proto\u017ee bin\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011bt ji\u017e neexistuje, a to navzdory mentalit\u011b a jazyku Z\u00e1padu z doby studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>uvedl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, takov\u00e1 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed rostouc\u00ed p\u0159ita\u017elivost strategick\u00e9 nejednozna\u010dnosti sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e form\u00e1ln\u00edch blok\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vlastn\u00ed role Turecka je p\u0159\u00edkladem tohoto nap\u011bt\u00ed: \u010dlen NATO, kter\u00fd podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 euroasijskou stabilitu a z\u00e1rove\u0148\u00a0<\/span>sleduje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0autonomn\u00ed ambice.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd z\u00e1jem o sa\u00fadsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nskou obrannou dohodu nakonec nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve vytvo\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00e9 ideologick\u00e9 aliance ani v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontaci s NATO. Jde o \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizik, omezov\u00e1n\u00ed soupe\u0159\u016f a navigaci ve fragmentovan\u00e9m mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu, kde neanga\u017eovanost ji\u017e nen\u00ed pasivn\u00ed neutralitou, ale aktivn\u00ed, n\u011bkdy protich\u016fdnou strategi\u00ed. Pod veden\u00edm Trumpa v USA, jejich\u017e zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u011b transak\u010dn\u00ed a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1, se region\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti chr\u00e1n\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b agresivn\u011bji. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd krok by proto nem\u011bl b\u00fdt ch\u00e1p\u00e1n jako n\u00e1hl\u00fd obrat, ale jako promy\u0161len\u00e9 p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed se v m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edm se sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zpr\u00e1vy o tom, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n usiluje o u\u017e\u0161\u00ed vazby na sa\u00fadsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nskou obrannou dohodu, vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed ot\u00e1zky…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94846,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,91,39],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94845"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94845"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94845\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94846"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94845"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94845"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94845"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}