{"id":94410,"date":"2025-12-12T00:21:48","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T23:21:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94410"},"modified":"2025-12-11T13:36:01","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T12:36:01","slug":"nejnovejsi-tvrzeni-britskeho-uradu-pro-rozpoctovou-odpovednost-o-klimatickem-alarmismu-jsou-zalozena-na-falesnych-vysledcich-ze-stazene-studie-v-nature","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/12\/nejnovejsi-tvrzeni-britskeho-uradu-pro-rozpoctovou-odpovednost-o-klimatickem-alarmismu-jsou-zalozena-na-falesnych-vysledcich-ze-stazene-studie-v-nature\/","title":{"rendered":"Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tvrzen\u00ed britsk\u00e9ho \u00da\u0159adu pro rozpo\u010dtovou odpov\u011bdnost o klimatick\u00e9m alarmismu jsou zalo\u017eena na fale\u0161n\u00fdch v\u00fdsledc\u00edch ze sta\u017een\u00e9 studie v Nature"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Jeden z dosud nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch skand\u00e1l\u016f v oblasti publikov\u00e1n\u00ed klimatick\u00fdch v\u011bd zas\u00e1hl \u0159adu vl\u00e1dn\u00edch politick\u00fdch poradc\u016f po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, v\u010detn\u011b britsk\u00e9ho \u00da\u0159adu pro rozpo\u010dtovou odpov\u011bdnost (OBR). Loni v \u010dervenci britsk\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>rozpo\u010dtov\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0podvodn\u00edci odhadli, \u017ee hrub\u00fd n\u00e1rodn\u00ed produkt (HNP) zem\u011b se\u00a0<\/span>za 50 let sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed o 7,8 %<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v d\u016fsledku klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch \u010dlov\u011bkem. Nov\u011b revidovan\u00e9 \u00fadaje o \u201edopadu na klima\u201c nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee ro\u010dn\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky na financov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu by v cen\u00e1ch roku 2025 byly o v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 miliard liber vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Tato tvrzen\u00ed aktualizuj\u00ed a zvy\u0161uj\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00ed odhady ze z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024 v d\u016fsledku \u201en\u011bkolika v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u2026 v d\u016fkazn\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u011b\u201c. Hloubkov\u00e9 vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed den\u00edku\u00a0<\/span>Daily Sceptic<\/span><\/em>\u00a0m\u016f\u017ee odhalit, \u017ee tato aktualizovan\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla jsou nepravdiv\u00e1, proto\u017ee p\u0159\u00edmo souvisej\u00ed s publikov\u00e1n\u00edm publicistiky\u00a0<\/span>Kotz et al.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0(KLW24)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 tento m\u011bs\u00edc st\u00e1hl \u010dasopis\u00a0<\/span>Nature<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

OBR nen\u00ed jedin\u00fd, kdo m\u00e1 statistick\u00e9 v\u00fdlevy, jeliko\u017e pr\u00e1ce, kter\u00e1 vznikla z Postupimsk\u00e9ho institutu pro v\u00fdzkum dopadu klimatu, zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho hn\u00edzda tvrdohlav\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch aktivist\u016f, byla \u0161iroce vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na i dal\u0161\u00edmi vl\u00e1dn\u00edmi organizacemi, v\u010detn\u011b Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu americk\u00e9ho Kongresu, OECD a Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v\u0161echny se spol\u00e9haly na tzv. model dopad\u016f \u0161kod nalezen\u00fd v KLW24, kter\u00fd vedl k tituln\u00edmu tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee sv\u011bt bude v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm stolet\u00ed chud\u0161\u00ed o 78 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f kv\u016fli lidsk\u00fdm manipulac\u00edm s klimatick\u00fdm termostatem. Catsnip samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, aby se shluky klimatick\u00fdch katastrof shrnuly s n\u00e1vrhy z\u00a0<\/span>Climate Brief<\/span><\/em>\u00a0financovan\u00e9ho organizac\u00ed Green Blob , \u017ee tento dokument byl v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce\u00a0<\/span>druhou nej\u010dast\u011bji prezentovanou<\/span><\/a>\u00a0prac\u00ed o klimatu v m\u00e9di\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Te\u010f to v\u0161echno skon\u010dilo slzami a hanbou. Sta\u017een\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nku\u00a0<\/span>v Nature<\/span><\/em>\u00a0se \u010dekalo dlouho (a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 dlouho!), proto\u017ee u\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu bylo z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee \u010dl\u00e1nek je pln\u00fd fat\u00e1ln\u00edch nedostatk\u016f. Auto\u0159i p\u0159ipustili, \u017ee chyby byly p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 na to, aby se daly opravit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odhady OBR ohledn\u011b \u0161kod na klimatu jsou zalo\u017eeny na n\u00e1r\u016fstu teploty o 3 \u00b0C oproti p\u0159edindustri\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00e9\u0159e a jsou \u201einformov\u00e1ny studiem NGFS f\u00e1ze V\u201c. Toto je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed. Pro sv\u00e9 projekce ekonomick\u00fdch \u0161kod se OBR op\u00edral o sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e S\u00edt\u011b pro ozelen\u011bn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00e9 v\u00fdslovn\u011b zahrnuly \u010dl\u00e1nek\u00a0<\/span>Kotze a kol<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Tyto informace aktualizuj\u00ed model funkce \u0161kod NGFS, kter\u00fd odhaduje ztr\u00e1ty HDP v d\u016fsledku klimatick\u00fdch dopad\u016f. Koment\u00e1\u0159e ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b OBR spolu s pozn\u00e1mkami pod \u010darou odkazuj\u00ed jak na NGFS f\u00e1zi V, tak na \u010dl\u00e1nek\u00a0<\/span>Kotze a kol<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. \u201eNejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data a aktualizovan\u00e9 modelov\u00e1n\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee \u0161kody na HDP v d\u016fsledku zm\u011bny klimatu budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se d\u0159\u00edve myslelo,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 OBR.<\/span><\/p>\n

NGFS byla zalo\u017eena na vrcholu ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 Zelen\u00e9 m\u00e1nie konsorciem\u00a0<\/span>centr\u00e1ln\u00edch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0bank a org\u00e1n\u016f dohledu. Prov\u00e1d\u00ed v\u00fdzkum a v\u00fdvoj sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f spolu s tzv. sd\u00edlen\u00edm osv\u011bd\u010den\u00fdch postup\u016f v oblasti klimatick\u00fdch a environment\u00e1ln\u00edch rizik ve financ\u00edch. M\u00e1 z\u0159eteln\u00fd n\u00e1dech p\u0159elomu desetilet\u00ed, kdy se finan\u010dn\u00ed a obchodn\u00ed sv\u011bt nyn\u00ed odvrac\u00ed od sv\u00fdch pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch fr\u00e1z\u00ed. Spojen\u00ed s Kotzov\u00fdm dokumentem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nezlep\u0161\u00ed jeho image, zejm\u00e9na u vl\u00e1dn\u00edch organizac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se nechaly un\u00e9st jeho vyn\u00e1lezy F\u00e1ze V. St\u00e1le si n\u00e1rokuje podporu v p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 90 zem\u00edch, ale bohu\u017eel ne v nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed zemi sv\u011bta. Trumpovi v Americe netrvalo dlouho, ne\u017e zru\u0161il Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m, Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed korporaci pro poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vklad\u016f a Ministerstvo financ\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V dubnu 2024 se hysterick\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>den\u00edk Guardian<\/span><\/em>\u00a0pustil do klimatick\u00e9 katastrofalistick\u00e9 akce, kdy\u017e zve\u0159ejnil Kotz\u016fv odhad, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy do 26 let\u00a0<\/span>klesnou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o p\u011btinu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Tento politick\u00fd clickbait byl jasn\u011b zobrazen v prvn\u00edm odstavci\u00a0<\/span>Guardianu<\/span><\/em>\u00a0s pozn\u00e1mkou, \u017ee \u201en\u00e1klady na \u0161kody budou \u0161estkr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e cena omezen\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed na 2 \u00b0C\u201c. Hlavn\u00ed autor Maximillian Kotz \u00fadajn\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee siln\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f bylo zp\u016fsobeno dopady klimatu mimo jin\u00e9 na zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy, produktivitu pr\u00e1ce a infrastrukturu. Guardian dosud\u00a0<\/span>z\u0159ejm\u011b<\/span><\/em>\u00a0nepova\u017eoval za nutn\u00e9 informovat sv\u00e9 \u010dten\u00e1\u0159e o sta\u017een\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, ani neprovedl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 opravy sv\u00e9 p\u016fvodn\u00ed fantasy zpr\u00e1vy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co je s Kotzov\u00fdm dokumentem \u0161patn\u011b? Kde za\u010d\u00edt? Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee trp\u011bl kombinac\u00ed nep\u0159esnost\u00ed dat a metodologick\u00fdch nedostatk\u016f, kter\u00e9 z\u00e1sadn\u011b podkopaly z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi ekonomick\u00fdch \u0161kod zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch klimatem. Probl\u00e9my se zd\u00e1ly b\u00fdt celou zpr\u00e1vou kask\u00e1dovit\u011b prol\u00edn\u00e1ny a byly uzn\u00e1ny za p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 na pouhou opravu. Je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9, \u017ee probl\u00e9my s uzbeck\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm souborem dat z let 1995\u20131999 vedly k modelov\u00fdm odhad\u016fm dopad\u016f teploty na r\u016fst, kter\u00e9 nafoukly glob\u00e1ln\u00ed projekce p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b trojn\u00e1sobn\u011b. Auto\u0159i zase vydali revidovan\u00fd dokument k \u201erecenzn\u00edmu \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed\u201c s m\u00edrn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi katastrofick\u00fdmi tvrzen\u00edmi. Sv\u011bt se v\u0161ak posouv\u00e1 od \u010dist\u00e9 nuly a trh s d\u011bsiv\u00fdmi nesmysly se den ode dne zmen\u0161uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00da\u0159ad pro rozpo\u010dtovou odpov\u011bdnost (OBR) mus\u00ed s ohledem na Kotzovo sta\u017een\u00ed odhad\u016f upravit sv\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla. NGFS uznala \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed roli, kterou Kotz sehr\u00e1l p\u0159i podpo\u0159e odhad\u016f fyzick\u00e9ho rizika ve f\u00e1zi V. Doporu\u010dila u\u017eivatel\u016fm, aby\u00a0<\/span>toto omezen\u00ed zohlednili<\/span><\/a>\u00a0p\u0159i sestavov\u00e1n\u00ed, promi\u0148te, v\u00fdpo\u010dtu vlastn\u00edch \u010d\u00edsel s vyu\u017eit\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Po t\u00e9to v\u011bdeck\u00e9 autonehod\u011b by pro OBR mohlo b\u00fdt lep\u0161\u00ed, kdyby se \u00fapln\u011b vzdal klimatick\u00fdch katastrof. Ka\u017ed\u00fd seri\u00f3zn\u00ed ekonom, kter\u00fd se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 v\u00fdpo\u010dty, by se m\u011bl zd\u011bsit nad t\u00edm, \u017ee mus\u00ed hl\u00e1sit smy\u0161len\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla produkovan\u00e1 nepou\u017eiteln\u00fdmi po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00fdmi klimatick\u00fdmi modely. Nav\u00edc je zcela z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee OBR o v\u011bd\u011b o klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch v\u00ed jen m\u00e1lo. V prvn\u00edm odstavci propaguje svou fiktivn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu o dopadech citac\u00ed ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho p\u011btilet\u00e9ho teplotn\u00edho z\u00e1znamu. Toto kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 obdob\u00ed je prakticky jen po\u010das\u00ed, nikoli smyslupln\u00fd klimatick\u00fd trend. D\u00e1le d\u00e1le nazna\u010duje, \u017ee britsk\u00e1 ekonomika \u010del\u00ed \u201est\u00e1le volatiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu a extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu po\u010das\u00ed\u201c, co\u017e je b\u011b\u017en\u00fd strach, kter\u00fd nen\u00ed podlo\u017een daty. Pot\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee teploty budou nad\u00e1le stoupat, dokud emise v\u0161ech \u201esklen\u00edkov\u00fdch\u201c plyn\u016f nedos\u00e1hnou nuly, co\u017e je tvrzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou platnost na z\u00e1klad\u011b pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed a m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed v historick\u00fdch i paleo klimatick\u00fdch z\u00e1znamech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee OBR nenapadlo, \u017ee extr\u00e9mn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed Net Zero povede k celosv\u011btov\u00e9mu hladov\u011bn\u00ed, \u00famrt\u00edm v opravdu \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku, ekonomick\u00e9mu kolapsu a glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu spole\u010densk\u00e9mu rozpadu. Dokonce i Guardian\u00a0<\/span>by<\/span><\/em>\u00a0se zdr\u00e1hal informovat o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00fdch n\u00e1kladech na to v\u0161e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chris Morrison<\/a> je\u00a0<\/span><\/em>redaktorem pro \u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed<\/span><\/em>\u00a0v den\u00edku Daily Sceptic<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeden z dosud nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch skand\u00e1l\u016f v oblasti publikov\u00e1n\u00ed klimatick\u00fdch v\u011bd zas\u00e1hl \u0159adu vl\u00e1dn\u00edch politick\u00fdch poradc\u016f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,873,497,303],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94410"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94410\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}