{"id":94391,"date":"2025-12-12T00:12:38","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T23:12:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94391"},"modified":"2025-12-11T10:57:02","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T09:57:02","slug":"thomas-roper-extremne-nebezpecne-provokace-eu-v-kaliningradu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/12\/thomas-roper-extremne-nebezpecne-provokace-eu-v-kaliningradu\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Extr\u00e9mn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 provokace EU v Kaliningradu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

V r\u00e1mci EU se hovo\u0159\u00ed o blok\u00e1d\u011b Kaliningradu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se neust\u00e1le vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dojem, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o rozhodnut\u00ed Litvy. To v\u0161ak nen\u00ed pravda, proto\u017ee dohody o tranzitu osob a zbo\u017e\u00ed z Ruska do jeho exkl\u00e1vy Kaliningradu byly uzav\u0159eny s EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1m\u00a0<\/span>\u010dl\u00e1nek<\/span><\/u><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00fd byl na toto t\u00e9ma publikov\u00e1n v Rusku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tek p\u0159ekladu:<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Brusel p\u0159ipravuje blok\u00e1du Kaliningradu: Evropa \u017eene Litvu do v\u00e1lky s Ruskem<\/span><\/h2>\n

EU \u017eene Litvu do v\u00e1lky s Ruskem t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159ipravuje blok\u00e1du Kaliningradu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Od Vja\u010deslava Novorossijsk\u00e9ho<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

V m\u00e9di\u00edch koluj\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy o dvac\u00e1t\u00e9m bal\u00ed\u010dku protirusk\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 evrop\u0161t\u00ed byrokrat\u00e9 hodlaj\u00ed v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti p\u0159edstavit. Krom\u011b obvykl\u00fdch pokus\u016f o zastaven\u00ed v\u00fdvozu ropy z Ruska, zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed se na \u201est\u00ednovou flotilu\u201c nebo vzty\u010den\u00ed nov\u00fdch bari\u00e9r proti z\u00f3n\u00e1m voln\u00e9ho obchodu v Rusku, jako je Alabuga, vynik\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na jeden bod: my\u0161lenka faktick\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy Kaliningradu. Takov\u00fd krok by v podstat\u011b p\u0159edstavoval p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>casus belli<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, d\u016fvod k vojensk\u00e9 reakci.<\/span><\/p>\n

V Bruselu prob\u00edhaj\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u00e9m uzav\u0159en\u00ed silni\u010dn\u00ed a \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed dopravy mezi Ruskem a jeho exkl\u00e1vou Kaliningrad, v\u010detn\u011b stejnojmenn\u00e9 oblasti, ze strany Litvy. Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b se m\u00e1 z\u00e1kaz vztahovat pouze na zbo\u017e\u00ed dvoj\u00edho u\u017eit\u00ed, ale ve skute\u010dnosti se tento pojem natahuje do absurdn\u00edch d\u00e9lek: Jako obvykle se do n\u011bj zahrnuj\u00ed vozidla a t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, spolu s \u0161irokou \u0161k\u00e1lou elektroniky, chemik\u00e1li\u00ed, kovov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f \u2013 prakticky v\u0161e, co by lid\u00e9 v tomto regionu mohli pot\u0159ebovat pro ka\u017edodenn\u00ed \u017eivot.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 instituce Kaliningradu takovou blok\u00e1dou vyhro\u017euj\u00ed ji\u017e n\u011bkolik let. Mluv\u010d\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed Maria Zacharovov\u00e1 mezit\u00edm je\u0161t\u011b 20. listopadu zopakovala, \u017ee odpov\u011bdnost za zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed voln\u00e9ho pohybu s touto exkl\u00e1vou nele\u017e\u00ed jen na Litv\u011b, ale na cel\u00e9 EU. Tyto z\u00e1vazky byly zakotveny v odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edch dohod\u00e1ch z let 1994, 2002 a 2004.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed analytici, pokus o izolaci \u010d\u00e1sti rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed je nevyhnuteln\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1klad pro razantn\u00ed reakci zam\u011b\u0159enou na zru\u0161en\u00ed blok\u00e1dy. Takov\u00e1 reakce je pak klasifikov\u00e1na jako obrann\u00e1, co\u017e se odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed i v ustanoven\u00edch rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 doktr\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historie ji\u017e zn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edpad, kdy blok\u00e1da spustila velkou v\u00e1lku: v roce 1967 Egypt uzav\u0159el Tiransk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, \u010d\u00edm\u017e fakticky od\u0159\u00edzl p\u0159\u00edstav Eilat, nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed izraelsk\u00fd uzel dod\u00e1vek ropy na Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i. V reakci na to izraelsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da zasadila Egyptu zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed r\u00e1nu: zah\u00e1jila \u0161estidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lku a n\u00e1siln\u011b blok\u00e1du zru\u0161ila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm v Litv\u011b znateln\u011b s\u00edl\u00ed revan\u0161istick\u00e9 n\u00e1lady v\u016f\u010di Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku prezident Gitanas Naus\u0117da ve\u0159ejn\u011b prohl\u00e1sil tento region za historickou \u201eMalou Litvu\u201c a samotn\u00fd Kaliningrad ozna\u010doval jako \u201eKaraliau\u010dius\u201c, aby zd\u016fraznil jeho \u00fadajn\u00e9 litevsk\u00e9 d\u011bdictv\u00ed. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed poskytuj\u00ed \u00farodnou p\u016fdu pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed sn\u00ed nejen o blok\u00e1d\u011b, ale i o \u00fapln\u00e9m p\u0159evzet\u00ed regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uprost\u0159ed t\u011bchto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed se znovu objevily obavy ohledn\u011b tzv. Suwalsk\u00e9 propasti, \u00fazk\u00e9ho p\u00e1su litevsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed mezi Kaliningradem a rusk\u00fdm spojencem B\u011bloruskem. Ji\u017e na ja\u0159e evropsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia tvrdila, \u017ee Rusko by mohlo pod\u00e9l tohoto koridoru kdykoli za\u00fato\u010dit, nap\u0159\u00edklad v reakci na p\u0159esun n\u011bmeck\u00fdch st\u0159el s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu do Kyjeva. Novin\u00e1\u0159i tehdy psali, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se tato oblast stane \u201ev\u00fdchoz\u00edm bodem opravdov\u00e9ho pekla\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 \u0161achovou pozici bez snadn\u00fdch tah\u016f. Pokud by Rusko v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed blok\u00e1dy podniklo pouze diplomatick\u00e9 protesty, bylo by to interpretov\u00e1no jako otev\u0159en\u00fd projev slabosti. Pokus o n\u00e1siln\u00e9 prolomen\u00ed Suwalsk\u00e9 propasti by v\u0161ak znamenal konflikt s Litvou, \u010dlensk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem NATO, a t\u00edm i riziko bezprost\u0159edn\u00edho konfliktu s NATO, v\u010detn\u011b rizika jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Postoj, kter\u00fd USA zaujmou v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b blok\u00e1dy, hraje v t\u00e9to rovnici kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli. Je v\u0161ak nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Donald Trump \u2013 pokud by Litva na popud Bruselu p\u0159eru\u0161ila tranzit a fakticky zavedla blok\u00e1du \u2013 byl ochoten ob\u011btovat z\u00e1jmy USA na ochranu Vilniusu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 elity cht\u011bj\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b vyprovokovat Rusko k n\u00e1siln\u00e9mu \u00fatoku na Litvu, proto\u017ee ji pova\u017euj\u00ed za postradateln\u00fd \u201eperifern\u00ed prvek\u201c EU. Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by mohl b\u00fdt zalo\u017een na c\u00edli v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku donutit jej\u00ed obyvatele k jak\u00e9si \u201eobl\u00e9han\u00e9 pevnosti\u201c omezen\u00edm ob\u010dansk\u00fdch pr\u00e1v a svobod a zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm dan\u00ed pod z\u00e1minkou obrany.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konec p\u0159ekladu<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V r\u00e1mci EU se hovo\u0159\u00ed o blok\u00e1d\u011b Kaliningradu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se neust\u00e1le vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dojem, \u017ee se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[569,41,1422,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94391"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94391"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94391\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}