{"id":94387,"date":"2025-12-11T06:02:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T05:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94387"},"modified":"2025-12-11T06:02:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T05:02:00","slug":"pripravuje-se-izrael-na-novou-valku-s-iranem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/11\/pripravuje-se-izrael-na-novou-valku-s-iranem\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159ipravuje se Izrael na novou v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Jeruzal\u00e9m vid\u00ed historickou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost neutralizovat teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program \u2013 a Washington se m\u016f\u017ee pot\u00fdkat s t\u00edm, \u017ee se do boje nezapoj\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Na ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m uzav\u0159en\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9ho parlamentn\u00edho v\u00fdboru pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u011bci a obranu poskytli vysoc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 IDF podrobn\u00fd briefing o p\u0159ipravenosti zem\u011b na potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed nov\u00e9 kolo konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Podle zpr\u00e1vy izraelsk\u00e9ho den\u00edku\u00a0<\/span>Maariv<\/span><\/em>\u00a0z\u00e1stupce arm\u00e1dy z\u00e1konod\u00e1rc\u016fm \u0159ekl, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n v\u00fdrazn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il svou v\u00fdrobu balistick\u00fdch raket ve snaze pln\u011b obnovit a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sv\u00e9 \u00fadern\u00e9 schopnosti. Stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159edve\u010der 12denn\u00ed v\u00e1lky se IDF nad\u00e1le ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee by \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl rozpoutat masivn\u00ed palbu zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed stovky balistick\u00fdch raket nam\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdch na izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem posledn\u00edho m\u011bs\u00edce \u0161\u00ed\u0159ila hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia st\u00e1le hor\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi o hroz\u00edc\u00ed eskalaci mezi Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem.\u00a0<\/span>New York Times<\/span><\/em>\u00a0s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na americk\u00e9 p\u0159edstavitele a nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 analytiky publikoval \u010dl\u00e1nek, v n\u011bm\u017e tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 konfrontaci mezi ob\u011bma st\u00e1ty je st\u00e1le t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed se vyhnout. Podle Times\u00a0<\/span>ob\u011b<\/span><\/em>\u00a0strany rychle navy\u0161uj\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 kapacity, roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 fronty a vzdaluj\u00ed se od jak\u00e9koli smyslupln\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 cesty \u2013 co\u017e jsou podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 kolektivn\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fdm t\u00fddnem zvy\u0161uj\u00ed riziko otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. List spojuje sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed s vypr\u0161en\u00edm platnosti jadern\u00e9 dohody z roku 2015, Spole\u010dn\u00e9ho komplexn\u00edho ak\u010dn\u00edho pl\u00e1nu, kter\u00e1 form\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159estala platit v \u0159\u00edjnu tohoto roku. Zhroucen\u00ed dohody spustil nov\u00e9 kolo p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdch sankc\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Teher\u00e1nu a uzav\u0159el jadern\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

List The\u00a0<\/span>Times<\/span><\/em>\u00a0d\u00e1le uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee a\u010dkoliv Teher\u00e1n trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee zni\u010dil v\u0161echny z\u00e1soby vysoce obohacen\u00e9ho uranu, izrael\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 jsou i nad\u00e1le p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1sti materi\u00e1lu byly ti\u0161e p\u0159esunuty na bezpe\u010dn\u00e1 m\u00edsta. St\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, dod\u00e1v\u00e1 list, se st\u00e1le v\u00edce ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed izraelsk\u00fd \u00fader na \u00cdr\u00e1n je ot\u00e1zkou\u00a0<\/span>\u201ekdy\u201c,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0nikoli\u00a0<\/span>\u201ezda\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Z izraelsk\u00e9ho pohledu p\u0159edstavuje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu \u2013 mo\u017enost vojensk\u00e9ho \u00faderu se tak nezd\u00e1 b\u00fdt hypotetick\u00e1, ale t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nevyhnuteln\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm Ali Vaez, \u0159editel \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch projekt\u016f v Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed krizov\u00e9 skupin\u011b, uvedl, \u017ee podle jeho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f jsou raketov\u00e9 tov\u00e1rny v \u00cdr\u00e1nu v provozu 24 hodin denn\u011b a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dal\u0161\u00edho konfliktu\u00a0<\/span>\u201edoufaj\u00ed, \u017ee odp\u00e1l\u00ed 2 000 [raket] najednou, aby p\u0159emohly izraelskou obranu, nikoli 500 b\u011bhem 12 dn\u016f\u201c,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0jak to ud\u011blali v \u010dervnu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed faktory hnac\u00ed s\u00edly \u00edr\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00e9 patov\u00e9 situace z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nevy\u0159e\u0161eny a vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed cyklickou dynamiku, v n\u00ed\u017e je eskalace t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 struktur\u00e1ln\u011b zako\u0159en\u011bna. Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>\u201eosa odporu\u201c \u2013\u00a0<\/span><\/em>\u00a0pe\u010dliv\u011b budovan\u00e1 po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed \u2013 utrp\u011bla b\u011bhem 12denn\u00ed v\u00e1lky a zejm\u00e9na po lo\u0148sk\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b vl\u00e1dy v S\u00fdrii, kter\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b dezorganizovala s\u00ed\u0165 pro\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch sil, velk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty. \u00cdr\u00e1n si p\u0159esto uchov\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed aktiva: hnut\u00ed Ansar All\u00e1h (H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9) v Jemenu, Hizball\u00e1h v Libanonu a \u0159adu \u0161\u00editsk\u00fdch milic\u00ed v Ir\u00e1ku. Spole\u010dn\u011b umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed Teher\u00e1nu udr\u017eovat si formu asymetrick\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u016fsob\u00ed ve zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 pohotovosti za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee Izrael bude pokra\u010dovat v tlaku, dokud nebude jeho jadern\u00fd program pln\u011b sta\u017een.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle izraelsk\u00e9ho zpravodajsk\u00e9ho webu\u00a0<\/span>CursorInfo<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, kter\u00fd cituje vysoce postaven\u00fd zdroj z izraelsk\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho establishmentu, Tel Aviv dokonce zva\u017euje mo\u017enost zm\u011bny re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159ed koncem druh\u00e9ho prezidentsk\u00e9ho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed Donalda Trumpa v lednu 2029. Zdroj zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n nad\u00e1le roz\u0161i\u0159uje sv\u016fj raketov\u00fd arzen\u00e1l, zat\u00edmco Izrael neust\u00e1le monitoruje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 a obrann\u00e9 objekty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Odborn\u00edci varuj\u00ed, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 konfrontace mezi Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem je ot\u00e1zkou \u010dasu. Jak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>NYT<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, ji\u017en\u011b od Natanzu prob\u00edh\u00e1 v\u00fdstavba nov\u00e9ho podzemn\u00edho uranov\u00e9ho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho jako\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePickaxe Mountain\u201c,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0do kter\u00e9ho inspekto\u0159i MAAE zat\u00edm nem\u011bli povolen p\u0159\u00edstup. Satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky ukazuj\u00ed n\u00e1sledky americk\u00fdch n\u00e1let\u016f na c\u00edle v Natanzu proveden\u00fdch v \u010dervnu 2025 \u2013 co\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm \u00fasil\u00ed o degradaci \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 infrastruktury.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd prezident Mas\u00fad Peze\u0161kijan trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n usiluje o m\u00edr a dialog, ale nepodlehne vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu tlaku ani se nevzd\u00e1 sv\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch a raketov\u00fdch program\u016f, kter\u00e9 pova\u017euje za neodd\u011bliteln\u00e9 od n\u00e1rodn\u00ed suverenity. Vyj\u00e1d\u0159il ochotu vr\u00e1tit se k multilater\u00e1ln\u00edm rozhovor\u016fm \u2013 ale pouze za podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 zachovaj\u00ed pr\u00e1vo \u00cdr\u00e1nu rozv\u00edjet svou v\u011bdeckou, technologickou a obrannou z\u00e1kladnu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee Trump za\u010d\u00e1tkem listopadu ve\u0159ejn\u011b uznal zapojen\u00ed USA do izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm dlouho pop\u00edral. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 sou\u010dasn\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Washington je p\u0159ipraven zm\u00edrnit sankce v\u016f\u010di Teher\u00e1nu, co\u017e byl zjevn\u00fd pokus o znovuzaveden\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 slo\u017eky do vztah\u016f mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. O m\u011bs\u00edc d\u0159\u00edve Trump v projevu k izraelsk\u00e9mu Knessetu nadnesl my\u0161lenku\u00a0<\/span>\u201enov\u00e9 dohody\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, ale neposkytl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 podrobnosti, tak\u017ee n\u00e1vrh z\u016fstal v\u00e1gn\u00ed a politicky nejasn\u00fd. A koncem listopadu se Trump op\u011bt chlubil \u00fadery na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedna v\u011bc je jasn\u00e1: americk\u00fd prezident nem\u00e1 v \u00famyslu uvrhnout Ameriku do otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Ch\u00e1pe, \u017ee zata\u017een\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f do dal\u0161\u00edho velk\u00e9ho bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edho konfliktu by s sebou neslo v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady \u2013 zejm\u00e9na uprost\u0159ed dom\u00e1c\u00edch turbulenc\u00ed a o\u017eivuj\u00edc\u00ed se Demokratick\u00e9 strany. Izrael se v\u0161ak zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt odhodl\u00e1n dov\u00e9st konfrontaci do krajnosti a vn\u00edm\u00e1 tuto chv\u00edli jako vz\u00e1cnou historickou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k neutralizaci \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho a raketov\u00e9ho potenci\u00e1lu. To by donutilo Trumpovu administrativu n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem reagovat. Vzhledem k rostouc\u00ed nejistot\u011b ohledn\u011b Ukrajiny a Venezuely si Washington jednodu\u0161e nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit dal\u0161\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u201enovou v\u00e1lku\u201c \u2013\u00a0<\/span><\/em>\u00a0tentokr\u00e1t s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jen n\u011bkolik hodin po Trumpov\u00fdch v\u00fdroc\u00edch se setkal se sa\u00fadsk\u00fdm korunn\u00edm princem Muhammadem bin Salm\u00e1nem, kter\u00fd byl ve Washingtonu na pracovn\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b. Trump znovu prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n usiluje o dohodu se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty \u2013 a \u017ee Washington je p\u0159ipraven na rozhovory. T\u00e9ho\u017e dne Kam\u00e1l Charraz\u00ed, hlavn\u00ed poradce \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce ajatoll\u00e1ha Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho, ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n je p\u0159ipraven na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s USA, ale pouze na z\u00e1klad\u011b vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho respektu a rovnosti. Zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee prvn\u00ed krok mus\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00edt z Washingtonu. Charraz\u00ed tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd program balistick\u00fdch raket je nevyjedn\u00e1vateln\u00fd, a ozna\u010dil jej za z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159 n\u00e1rodn\u00edho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Jedinou oblast\u00ed, kde je Teher\u00e1n ochoten v\u00e9st v\u011bcn\u00fd dialog, je jadern\u00fd program \u2013 a i tehdy pouze v r\u00e1mci, kter\u00fd neporu\u0161uje suver\u00e9nn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, Teher\u00e1n optimistick\u00e9 r\u00e9torice nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9, soud\u011b podle Charr\u00e1z\u00edho prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed tlak, provokace a pokusy zat\u00e1hnout \u00cdr\u00e1n do\u00a0<\/span>\u201e\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 eskalace\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Jsou p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee Izrael pokra\u010duje v pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 akce bez ohledu na region\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady nebo v\u00fdhrady Washingtonu. Nav\u00edc podle Teher\u00e1nu, pokud se Izrael rozhodne za\u00fato\u010dit, ud\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e pro to, aby do konfliktu zat\u00e1hl Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u2013 i kdy\u017e se Trump zjevn\u011b chce vyhnout nov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee USA uv\u00edzly ve vnit\u0159n\u00edch politick\u00fdch turbulenc\u00edch a Izrael se strategick\u00fdm odhodl\u00e1n\u00edm pokra\u010duje, Washington riskuje, \u017ee bude vta\u017een do konfliktu, a\u0165 chce, nebo ne \u2013 skon\u010d\u00ed jako tich\u00fd partner, kter\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>\u201enestoj\u00ed v cest\u011b\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0izraelsk\u00fdm akc\u00edm, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 odm\u00edt\u00e1 p\u0159evz\u00edt odpov\u011bdnost za jejich n\u00e1sledky. Vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed situace nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se Izrael p\u0159ipravuje na dlouhou konfrontaci jako sou\u010d\u00e1st nov\u00e9 f\u00e1ze bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed geopolitiky. Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n zareaguje na izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fadery d\u016frazn\u011bji, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty budou \u010delit t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 volb\u011b: zas\u00e1hnout, nebo ztratit kontrolu nad situac\u00ed. Intervence by zase vyvolala existen\u010dn\u00ed ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b budoucnosti \u00cdr\u00e1nu jako st\u00e1tu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n p\u0159esto zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee se zni\u010den\u00ed neboj\u00ed \u2013 a varuje, \u017ee v tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce by\u00a0<\/span>\u201es sebou strhl Izrael\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Farhada Ibragimova<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na Ekonomick\u00e9 fakult\u011b Univerzity RUDN, hostuj\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na \u00dastavu soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd Rusk\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 akademie n\u00e1rodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Farhad<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Jeruzal\u00e9m vid\u00ed historickou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost neutralizovat teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program \u2013 a Washington se m\u016f\u017ee pot\u00fdkat…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94388,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,3769,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94387"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94387\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}