{"id":94379,"date":"2025-12-11T05:41:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T04:41:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94379"},"modified":"2025-12-11T05:41:10","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T04:41:10","slug":"andrew-korybko-jak-by-mohl-vypadat-pakt-o-neutoceni-mezi-nato-a-ruskem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/11\/andrew-korybko-jak-by-mohl-vypadat-pakt-o-neutoceni-mezi-nato-a-ruskem\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Jak by mohl vypadat pakt o ne\u00fato\u010den\u00ed mezi NATO a Ruskem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pov\u011bdom\u00ed o hrozb\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 NATO p\u0159edstavuje na t\u011bchto t\u0159ech front\u00e1ch, a rozd\u011blen\u00ed \u00fakol\u016f mezi p\u011bt nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f v r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to organizace \u2013 Finsko, \u0160v\u00e9dsko, Polsko, Rumunsko a Turecko \u2013 umo\u017e\u0148uje Rusku navrhnout nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed protiopat\u0159en\u00ed a navrhnout nejlep\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsoby \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed budouc\u00edch nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u0159\u00edve se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo, \u017ee po skon\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu by mohlo doj\u00edt k uzav\u0159en\u00ed\u00a0paktu o ne\u00fato\u010den\u00ed mezi NATO a Ruskem (NRNAP)<\/a>, ale aby byl \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd, musel by pokr\u00fdvat Arktidu a Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e, st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropu (CEE) a \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e a ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz. Tato anal\u00fdza tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraznila kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli\u00a0Polska<\/a>, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed\u00a0t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1du v NATO<\/a>\u00a0a kter\u00e9 hrani\u010d\u00ed jak s Ruskem, tak s B\u011bloruskem.<\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze proto p\u0159edstav\u00edme n\u011bkter\u00e9 obecn\u00e9 my\u0161lenky t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se NRNAP, pot\u00e9 co v p\u0159edchoz\u00ed anal\u00fdze byly pops\u00e1ny jeho v\u00fdhody.<\/p>\n

\u0160v\u00e9dsko je nejvhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u00ed pro omezen\u00ed vlivu Ruska v arkticko-baltsk\u00e9 oblasti, proto\u017ee je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed obou region\u016f, ale tohoto c\u00edle lze nejl\u00e9pe dos\u00e1hnout prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm partnerstv\u00ed s\u00a0Finskem<\/a>\u00a0(tak\u00e9 dvoj\u00ed arkticko-baltsk\u00fd st\u00e1t) a Polskem (pouze baltsk\u00fd st\u00e1t, ale tak\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 rostouc\u00ed pozemn\u00ed mocnost), ide\u00e1ln\u011b v r\u00e1mci trojstrann\u00e9ho form\u00e1tu. C\u00edlem v t\u00e9to oblasti je, aby \u0160v\u00e9dsko vyzbrojilo a opevnilo svou b\u00fdvalou oblast Finska, aby odvedlo \u010d\u00e1st rusk\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch sil ze st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy a z\u00e1rove\u0148 usnadnilo vzestup n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed moci Polska\u00a0prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch dohod<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Tento p\u0159\u00edstup m\u00e1 za c\u00edl\u00a0zabrzdit Rusko<\/a>\u00a0pod\u00e9l dlouh\u00e9 finsk\u00e9 hranice, omezit jeho svobodu plavby v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i v dob\u011b krize a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b blokovat Kaliningrad. Kaliningradsk\u00e1 dimenze p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed do role polsko-centrick\u00e9 st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 fronty, kter\u00e1 by mohla slou\u017eit jako odrazov\u00fd m\u016fstek pro invazi do t\u00e9to oblasti a B\u011bloruska. M\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 fungovat jako z\u00e1kladna pro nasm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed pozemn\u00edch sil do pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a usnadn\u011bn\u00ed intervence NATO na Ukrajin\u011b spole\u010dn\u011b s nedalek\u00fdm Rumunskem.<\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b jako Polsko m\u00e1\u00a0dvoj\u00ed roli<\/a>\u00a0v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i a st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9m regionu, tak i Rumunsko m\u00e1 dvoj\u00ed roli ve st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9m regionu a v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i, proto\u017ee\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kladna NATO v Evrop\u011b<\/a>\u00a0se stav\u00ed pobl\u00ed\u017e p\u0159\u00edstavu Constanta v bl\u00edzkosti Krymu. Vzhledem k omezen\u00edm, kter\u00e1 Montreuxsk\u00e1 \u00famluva ukl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm sil\u00e1m st\u00e1t\u016f mimo region v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i, bude NATO muset spol\u00e9hat jak na Rumunsko (p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na leteck\u00e9 a pozemn\u00ed s\u00edly \u010dlen\u016f v v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9m za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed), tak na Turecko (jeho\u017e n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo\u00a0modernizuje a roz\u0161i\u0159uje<\/a>), aby tam zadr\u017eelo Rusko.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed role Turecka p\u0159i zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0cel\u00e9m jeho ji\u017en\u00edm okraji<\/a>, po\u010d\u00ednaje Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkazem s jeho spojeneck\u00fdm partnerem v oblasti vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obrany \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem a p\u0159es Kaspick\u00e9 mo\u0159e a\u017e po\u00a0St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii<\/a>\u00a0prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u201eTrumpovy trasy pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u00edr a prosperitu\u201c (TRIPP). TRIPP usnadn\u00ed v\u00fdvoz z\u00e1padn\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd v\u00fdcvik spojenc\u016f Ruska v CSTO, se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na\u00a0Kazachst\u00e1n<\/a>, tak aby spl\u0148ovali standardy NATO,\u00a0jak\u00fdch pr\u00e1v\u011b dos\u00e1hl \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n<\/a>. Pot\u00e9 by mohla n\u00e1sledovat krize podobn\u00e1 t\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Pov\u011bdom\u00ed o hrozb\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 NATO p\u0159edstavuje na t\u011bchto front\u00e1ch, a rozd\u011blen\u00ed pr\u00e1ce mezi p\u011bt nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f v r\u00e1mci aliance \u2013 Finsko, \u0160v\u00e9dsko, Polsko, Rumunsko a Turecko \u2013 umo\u017e\u0148uje Rusku navrhnout nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed protiopat\u0159en\u00ed a navrhnout nejlep\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsoby \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm mo\u017en\u00e9ho NRNAP. P\u0159esn\u00e9 podrobnosti o tom, jak toho dos\u00e1hnout, se budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b li\u0161it podle fronty, ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b budou m\u00edt v\u0161echny spole\u010dnou snahu omezit rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdch sil v bl\u00edzkosti hranic a zajistit volnou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed plavbu.<\/p>\n

Bez NRNAP by se tyto hrozby mohly vymknout kontrole a v\u00e9st k dal\u0161\u00ed krizi mezi NATO a Ruskem, kterou by mohlo vyprovokovat dokonce i Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, aby zni\u010dilo\u00a0znovuzrozenou<\/a>\u00a0\u201enovou d\u00e9tente<\/a>\u201c mezi\u00a0Ruskem<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0USA<\/a>, nebo p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm udr\u017eelo Rusko a z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropu (hlavn\u011b N\u011bmecko) odd\u011blen\u00e9 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm tohoto obnoven\u00e9ho \u201ecordon sanitaire\u201c. Je proto v z\u00e1jmu Ruska a USA bezodkladn\u011b zah\u00e1jit diskuse o NRNAP a Trump 2.0 by m\u011bl p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let o tom, jak zajistit, aby jeho mlad\u0161\u00ed partne\u0159i dodr\u017eovali v\u0161e, na \u010dem se dohodnou.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pov\u011bdom\u00ed o hrozb\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 NATO p\u0159edstavuje na t\u011bchto t\u0159ech front\u00e1ch, a rozd\u011blen\u00ed \u00fakol\u016f mezi p\u011bt…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94380,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,39,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94379"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94379"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94379\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94380"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}