{"id":94108,"date":"2025-12-08T00:33:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T23:33:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94108"},"modified":"2025-12-07T18:54:10","modified_gmt":"2025-12-07T17:54:10","slug":"zdenek-koudelka-pocty-vojsk-ukrajiny-v-mirovem-stavu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/08\/zdenek-koudelka-pocty-vojsk-ukrajiny-v-mirovem-stavu\/","title":{"rendered":"Zden\u011bk Koudelka: Po\u010dty vojsk Ukrajiny v m\u00edrov\u00e9m stavu"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>V\u00a0m\u00edrov\u00e9m pl\u00e1nu pro Ukrajinu z jedn\u00e1n\u00ed USA a Ruska byl omezen m\u00edrov\u00fd stav ukrajinsk\u00fdch vojsk na 600\u00a0000 osob. N\u011bmecko, Brit\u00e1nie a Francie navrhuj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed na 800\u00a0000. Je to moc nebo m\u00e1lo?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Po\u010det p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edk\u016f \u010deskoslovensk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy v\u00a070.-80. letech 20. stolet\u00ed byl p\u0159es 200\u00a0000 osob. K\u00a0tomu je nutn\u00e9 p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edtat Vojska Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho ministerstva vnitra, z\u00a0nich\u017e nejpo\u010detn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed byla Pohrani\u010dn\u00ed str\u00e1\u017e s\u00a0asi 17\u00a0000 p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edky. Celkem m\u011blo \u010ceskoslovensko v\u00a070.-80. letech 20. stolet\u00ed, tedy v\u00a0dob\u011b druh\u00e9 poloviny obdob\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky do 230\u00a0000 voj\u00e1k\u016f. P\u0159itom m\u011blo asi 15 milion\u016f obyvatel a povinn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 slu\u017eba byla pro mu\u017ee 2 roky. Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0roce 1938, v\u00a0dob\u011b ohro\u017een\u00ed N\u011bmeckem, byl pl\u00e1novan\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd stav arm\u00e1dy asi 230\u00a0000 mu\u017e\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e tehdy \u010ceskoslovensko m\u011blo p\u0159es 14 mili\u00f3n\u016f obyvatel.<\/p>\n<p>Ukrajina, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla ke konci Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu asi 51 mili\u00f3n\u016f obyvatel, dlouhodob\u011b trp\u00ed poklesem obyvatelstva. P\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v\u00a0roce 2022 m\u011bla asi 41 milion\u016f. Po dobu v\u00e1lky razantn\u011b poklesl po\u010det obyvatel p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm t\u00edm, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed ovl\u00e1dlo Rusko a je velk\u00e1 migrace do ciziny. R\u016fzn\u00e9 odhady, v\u010detn\u011b OSN, ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee dnes m\u00e1 Ukrajina na ji ovl\u00e1dan\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00edch asi 31 milion\u016f obyvatel, pesimistick\u00e9 odhady ud\u00e1vaj\u00ed 25 milion\u016f. I kdy\u017e v\u00e1lka skon\u010d\u00ed lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st ute\u010denc\u016f se nevr\u00e1t\u00ed, nav\u00edc bude pokra\u010dovat p\u0159irozen\u00e9 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed, kdy plodnost (po\u010det d\u011bt\u00ed na jednu \u017eenu) je na Ukrajin\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 1. Pro prost\u00e9 zachov\u00e1n\u00ed je nutn\u00e9 m\u00edt plodnost alespo\u0148 2,1. Optimistick\u00e9 v\u00fdhledy uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina bude m\u00edt v\u00a0druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b 21. stolet\u00ed do 25 milion\u016f obyvatel, pesimist\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee po\u010det obyvatel klesne pod 20 milion\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Vych\u00e1z\u00edme-li z\u00a0\u010deskoslovensk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti, m\u00edrov\u00e9 stavy ukrajinsk\u00e9ho vojska t\u011b\u017eko mohou p\u0159e\u010d\u00edslit 400\u00a0000 osob, sp\u00ed\u0161e budou do 250\u00a0000. Rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159ed po\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b v\u00a0roce 2022 m\u011bla ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da n\u011bco m\u00e1lo p\u0159es 200\u00a0000 voj\u00e1k\u016f p\u0159i povinn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 slu\u017eb\u011b v\u00a0d\u00e9lce 1,5 roku, k tomu lze p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edtat p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edky r\u016fzn\u00fdch speci\u00e1ln\u00edch sbor\u016f. Ov\u0161em ji\u017e i maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed omezen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil na 600\u00a0000 osob v\u00a0p\u016fvodn\u00edm n\u00e1vrhu m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy je pro st\u00e1t lidnatosti Ukrajiny nenaplniteln\u00fd v\u00a0m\u00edrov\u00e9 dob\u011b, leda by radik\u00e1ln\u011b prodlou\u017eila povinnou vojenskou slu\u017ebu na 3 a v\u00edce let a d\u00e1vala do vojensk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu podstatnou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f. V\u017edy\u0165 i po mobilizaci roku 2022 se uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee m\u011bla ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da v\u00a0roce 2023 asi 800\u00a0000 p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edk\u016f, k\u00a0tomu m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159i\u010d\u00edst r\u016fzn\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 po\u010detn\u00e9 sbory mimo ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed arm\u00e1du.<\/p>\n<p>Debaty, zda m\u00e1 b\u00fdt v\u00a0m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouv\u011b omezen po\u010det p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edk\u016f ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na 600\u00a0000 \u010di 800\u00a0000, jsou debaty o nepodstatn\u00e9m \u010d\u00edsle. Skute\u010dn\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd stav ukrajinsk\u00fdch vojsk bude v\u00a0z\u00e1vislosti na po\u010dtu obyvatel mnohem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Pokud by znovu nastala v\u00e1lka mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou, pak v\u00a0r\u00e1mci mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00ed strany nezavazuj\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 smlouvy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/web.litterate.cz\/pocty-vojsk-ukrajiny-v-mirovem-stavu\/\">Zden\u011bk Koudelka<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-91027\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/koudelka-pravnik-300x175.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"175\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/koudelka-pravnik-300x175.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/koudelka-pravnik.jpg 675w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V\u00a0m\u00edrov\u00e9m pl\u00e1nu pro Ukrajinu z jedn\u00e1n\u00ed USA a Ruska byl omezen m\u00edrov\u00fd stav ukrajinsk\u00fdch vojsk&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39562,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[80,1503,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94108"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94108\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39562"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}