{"id":94085,"date":"2025-12-08T00:13:37","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T23:13:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94085"},"modified":"2025-12-07T13:56:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-07T12:56:12","slug":"pavel-sik-hysterie-narusta-a-merz-s-ursulou-nepozaduji-nic-mensiho-nez-vybuch-atomove-bomby-ve-financnim-svete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/08\/pavel-sik-hysterie-narusta-a-merz-s-ursulou-nepozaduji-nic-mensiho-nez-vybuch-atomove-bomby-ve-financnim-svete\/","title":{"rendered":"Pavel \u0160ik: Hysterie nar\u016fst\u00e1 a Merz s Ur\u0161ulou nepo\u017eaduj\u00ed nic men\u0161\u00edho ne\u017e v\u00fdbuch atomov\u00e9 bomby ve finan\u010dn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Rusk\u00e1 zmrazen\u00e1 aktiva \u2013 Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9 v\u00a0jak\u00e9m stavu belgick\u00fd premi\u00e9r v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed sch\u016fzku s\u00a0Merzem a\u00a0Ur\u0161ulou p\u0159e\u017eil (;)), ale pr\u00fd nepovolil.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hysterie nar\u016fst\u00e1 a Merz s Ur\u0161ulou nepo\u017eaduj\u00ed nic men\u0161\u00edho ne\u017e v\u00fdbuch atomov\u00e9 bomby ve finan\u010dn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n

Podle m\u00e9ho je to dobr\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost si znovu (u\u017e jsem to kdysi vysv\u011btloval) jednodu\u0161e i\u00a0pro neekonomy vysv\u011btlit, co spole\u010dnost\u00a0Euroclear<\/em><\/strong>, o\u00a0kterou se nyn\u00ed vede asi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed novodob\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e1 bitva, pro Evropu, Euro a\u00a0Belgii znamen\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e jste kdysi v d\u00e1vn\u00e9 minulosti cht\u011bli zaplatit v dolarech za americk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed, ale m\u011bli jste t\u0159eba \u010desk\u00e9 koruny, bylo nutn\u00e9 naj\u00edt n\u011bkoho, kdo v\u00e1m ty koruny za dolary odkoupil a pot\u00e9 ty dolary bu\u010f odv\u00e9zt do Ameriky, nebo naj\u00edt banku, kter\u00e1 by je tam za poplatek odvezla sama.<\/p>\n

Dnes to prob\u00edh\u00e1 u\u017e jen zprost\u0159edkovan\u011b skrze n\u011bkolik instituc\u00ed a\u00a0d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd pojem jsou tzv clearingov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dty. Co to znamen\u00e1?<\/p>\n

Oby\u010dejn\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed banky t\u0159eba u\u00a0n\u00e1s maj\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u011b clearingov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dty. Kdy\u017e po\u0161lete pen\u00edze do jin\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 banky, skrze tyhle \u00fa\u010dty to banky mezi sebou \u201cjen\u201d pro\u00fa\u010dtuj\u00ed, ale fyzicky se koruna prakticky nikam nep\u0159esune.<\/p>\n

Banky jsou propojen\u00e9 i nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d sv\u011btem, ale ne nap\u0159\u00edmo jako v popsan\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, to by pro n\u011b bylo moc komplikovan\u00e9 a drah\u00e9. Pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed instituce, kter\u00e9 jsou zase propojen\u00e9 s ostatn\u00edmi velk\u00fdmi institucemi. Tak\u017ee kdy\u017e po\u0161lete 500 dolar\u016f z va\u0161\u00ed banky do b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 banky v USA, jde to v\u011bt\u0161inou p\u0159es zprost\u0159edkovatele t\u0159eba JPMorgan bank nebo Citibank.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e ov\u0161em po\u0161lete 2 miliardy dolar\u016f americk\u00e9 bance nebo miliardu eur n\u011bmeck\u00e9 bance, jde to bu\u010f p\u0159es Americkou nebo Evropskou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku nebo pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159es Euroclear. Prakticky se zase pen\u00edze fyzicky nepohnou, insituce si to \u201cjenom\u201d pomoc\u00ed clearingov\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f mezi sebou pro\u00fa\u010dtuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Euroclear m\u00e1 stejn\u011b jako Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka \u00fa\u010dty ve v\u0161ech sv\u011btov\u00fdch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank\u00e1ch v\u010detn\u011b t\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 \u010cNB.<\/p>\n

A jeho specialita je krom\u011b schopnosti rychle pro\u00fa\u010dtovat velk\u00e9 objemy pen\u011bz hlavn\u011b zprost\u0159edkovat obchody s\u00a0cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry. Kdy\u017e \u010cNB nebo velk\u00fd investi\u010dn\u00ed fond chce t\u0159eba prodat n\u011bmeck\u00e9 dluhopisy a\u00a0koupit americk\u00e9, provede to p\u0159es Euroclear. Kdy\u017e n\u011bjak\u00fd rusk\u00fd, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd nebo arabsk\u00fd fond chce prodat n\u011bmeck\u00e9 dluhopisy a\u00a0chce dostat dolary, provede to p\u0159es Euroclear, proto\u017ee je tam v\u00a0trezoru m\u00e1 ulo\u017een\u00e9. Ten p\u0159evede b\u011bhem chv\u00edle dluhopisy nov\u00e9mu majiteli, p\u0159ijme Eura na sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010det u\u00a0ECB a\u00a0b\u011bhem vte\u0159iny po\u0161le ze sv\u00e9ho dolarov\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu u\u00a0FEDu nebo JPMorgan dolary prodavajicimu fondu.<\/p>\n

Euroclear je vlastn\u011b obrovsk\u00fd trezor a\u00a0\u00fa\u010detn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159 pro cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry a\u00a0pen\u00edze se sv\u011btov\u00fdm vyznamem. Funguje jako banka pro banky, investi\u010dn\u00ed fondy a\u00a0velk\u00e9 firmy. 95\u00a0% v\u0161ech evropsk\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f se eviduje a\u00a0obchoduje pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159es Euroclear.<\/p>\n

A s cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry souvis\u00ed i rusk\u00e1 zmrazen\u00e1 aktiva. Rusov\u00e9 v Euroclearu nem\u011bli p\u0159\u00edmo hotovost na \u00fa\u010dtu. Rusk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (v\u011bt\u0161ina aktiv), rusk\u00e9 banky a velk\u00e9 firmy maj\u00ed u Euroclear sv\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm dluhopisy. Prakticky tak t\u0159eba N\u011bmecko neplat\u00ed \u00faroky za p\u016fj\u010den\u00e9 pen\u00edze fakticky do Ruska, ale pr\u00e1v\u011b na odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00fd \u00fa\u010det v Euroclearu.<\/p>\n

Po tom cel\u00e9m popisu je asi jasn\u00e9, na \u010dem to cel\u00e9 je postaven\u00e9. Jednodu\u0161e na d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se t\u0159eba oby\u010dejn\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed banka dostane do probl\u00e9m\u016f, tak nejen\u017ee jej\u00ed klienti b\u011b\u017e\u00ed k\u00a0bankomatu, aby si vybrali sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze, ale ostatn\u00ed banky s\u00a0n\u00ed p\u0159estanou p\u0159es clearingov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dty pro\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1vat platby, jako se to stalo nap\u0159 Silicon Valley Bank v\u00a0roce 2023 v\u00a0USA. P\u0159estanou j\u00ed d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat v\u00a0tom, \u017ee dostanou z\u00e1vazky proplaceny.<\/p>\n

A p\u0159esn\u011b to sam\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t v\u00a0jist\u00e9m smyslu Euroclearu. Kdy\u017e t\u0159eba Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie op\u011bt za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Husie v\u00a0Jemenu, maj\u00ed se sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 obrovsk\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed fondy nebo Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka b\u00e1t o\u00a0sv\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry a\u00a0\u00faroky z\u00a0nich v\u00a0Euroclearu, kdy\u017e si n\u011bjak\u00fd evropsk\u00fd aktivistick\u00fd politik usmysl\u00ed, \u017ee je zabav\u00ed? Nebo \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 fondy a\u00a0\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 lidov\u00e1 banka? Nebo dokonce americk\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed fondy a\u00a0velk\u00e9 banky?<\/p>\n

Nejen\u017ee by to bylo pro samotn\u00fd Euroclear, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 by to bylo i\u00a0pro jeho vlastn\u00edky dost zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A komu pat\u0159\u00ed Euroclear? T\u011bm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm evropsk\u00fdm a\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00fdm bank\u00e1m.\u00a0\u00datok aktivistick\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch politik\u016f na Euroclear je vlastn\u011b \u00fatok na cel\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m<\/strong>, proto\u017ee hlavn\u00ed vlastn\u00edk Deutsche B\u00f6rse Group pat\u0159\u00ed t\u011bm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm bank\u00e1m a instituc\u00edm, stejn\u011b jako ostatn\u00ed vlastn\u00edci mj. BNP Paribas, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale nebo J.P. Morgan a t\u00edm p\u00e1dem i v\u0161em mal\u00fdm akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016fm. Euroclear je toti\u017e jejich \u00fa\u010detn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159 a trezor.<\/p>\n

Euroclear je vedle ECB nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed instituc\u00ed v\u00a0Evrop\u011b. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by evrop\u0161t\u00ed politici donutili instituci k\u00a0p\u0159evodu aktiv z\u00a0bilance, nebylo by to jen Rusko, kdo by opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u011b po\u017eadovalo jeho prost\u0159edky zp\u011bt. Samotn\u00e1 instituce se dle slov jej\u00ed \u0161\u00e9fky bude soudn\u011b br\u00e1nit, proto\u017ee by \u010delila riziku bankrotu skrze dominov\u00fd efekt podobn\u00fd \u201crunu\u201d na banku.<\/p>\n

Jak \u0159ekla \u0161\u00e9fka Euroclearu Vlerie Urbain v\u010dera belgick\u00e9 televizi, mohl by takov\u00fd krok destabilizovat cel\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m a\u00a0odradit investory od evropsk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho prostoru z\u00a0d\u016fvodu strachu. Nejen\u017ee by Rusko okam\u017eit\u011b zmrazilo belgick\u00e9 rezervy v\u00a0Rusku, co\u017e se mo\u017en\u00e1 nezd\u00e1 tak stra\u0161n\u00e9, ale Belgie jako odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed regul\u00e1tor by \u010delila i\u00a0v\u0161em p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdm n\u00e1rok\u016fm i\u00a0na od\u0161kodn\u011bn\u00ed vlastn\u00edk\u016f.<\/p>\n

V p\u0159ekladu by to zp\u016fsobilo, \u017ee by sv\u011btov\u00e9 fondy, velk\u00e9 banky v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch mohly st\u00e1hnout sv\u00e9 prost\u0159edky z\u00a0Evropy tj zbavit se evropsk\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f. To by mohlo zp\u016fsobit p\u00e1d Eura, finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi minim\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00a0Evrop\u011b nebo t\u0159eba razantn\u00ed nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f tj \u00farok\u016f na st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh v\u0161ech evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed, o\u00a0\u010dem se v\u016fbec nemluv\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se velc\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di budou b\u00e1t o\u00a0sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze, zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di budou cht\u00edt vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00faroky za sv\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010den\u00e9 pen\u00edze. A\u00a0ty d\u016fsledky se nedaj\u00ed v\u0161echny ani vyjmenovat, proto\u017ee se nic podobn\u00e9ho doposud nezkou\u0161elo.<\/p>\n

Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, Merz s\u00a0Ur\u0161ulou nepo\u017eaduj\u00ed nic men\u0161\u00edho, ne\u017e v\u00fdbuch atomov\u00e9 bomby ve finan\u010dn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pavel \u0160ik,\u00a0FB (6.12.2025)<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Pavel<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusk\u00e1 zmrazen\u00e1 aktiva \u2013 Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9 v\u00a0jak\u00e9m stavu belgick\u00fd premi\u00e9r v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed sch\u016fzku s\u00a0Merzem a\u00a0Ur\u0161ulou p\u0159e\u017eil…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89030,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[41,45,1503,8211,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94085"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94085\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}