{"id":94014,"date":"2025-12-07T00:18:54","date_gmt":"2025-12-06T23:18:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=94014"},"modified":"2025-12-06T11:26:56","modified_gmt":"2025-12-06T10:26:56","slug":"klimaticka-panika-vyvracena-mira-vymirani-klesa-jiz-100-let","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/07\/klimaticka-panika-vyvracena-mira-vymirani-klesa-jiz-100-let\/","title":{"rendered":"Klimatick\u00e1 panika vyvr\u00e1cena: M\u00edra vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed kles\u00e1 ji\u017e 100 let"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pamatujete si \u00fadajn\u011b hroz\u00edc\u00ed masov\u00e9 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed? To bylo op\u011bt odvol\u00e1no. Panika byla p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e1. Apokalypsa odlo\u017eena. A \u00fadajn\u011b \u201erychle se zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed\u201c masov\u00e9 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed? Podle nov\u00e9 studie je to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm statistick\u00fd m\u00fdtus s politickou agendou.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ve\u0159ejnosti se l\u00e9ta \u0159\u00edkalo, \u017ee jsme na pokraji \u0161est\u00e9ho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho masov\u00e9ho vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je spu\u0161t\u011bno zm\u011bnou klimatu a \u00fadajn\u011b bezprecedentn\u00edm ni\u010den\u00edm z\u00e1klad\u016f \u017eivota. Politici, nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed organizace a aktivist\u00e9 se navz\u00e1jem p\u0159edh\u00e1n\u011bli st\u00e1le hroziv\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i soudn\u00e9ho dne a ka\u017edou novou klimatickou da\u0148 prod\u00e1vali jako z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 lano pro \u017eivot na Zemi. Nyn\u00ed se v\u0161ak objevila st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e1 anal\u00fdza, a to od nikoho jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e od samotn\u00e9ho akademick\u00e9ho centra ekologie: Arizonsk\u00e9 univerzity. A najednou v\u0161echno vypad\u00e1 \u00fapln\u011b jinak. Ne eskalace, ale \u00fapadek. Nen\u00ed to zp\u016fsobeno klimatem, ale p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b \u010dlov\u011bkem \u2013 i kdy\u017e zcela jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, ne\u017e se tvrdilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sv\u00e9 studii \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Rozbalen\u00ed krize vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed: tempo, vzorce a p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed rostlin a \u017eivo\u010dich\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c, publikovan\u00e9 v \u010dasopise Proceedings of the Royal Society Publishing, v\u011bdci Kristen Saban a John Wiens zkoumali skute\u010dn\u011b zdokumentovan\u00e1 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed za posledn\u00edch 500 let. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 fantazie o modelech, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 budouc\u00ed projekce, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed na politick\u00fdch front\u00e1ch \u2013 pouze skute\u010dn\u00e1 data. Analyzovali 912 prokazateln\u011b vyhynul\u00fdch druh\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed srovn\u00e1vac\u00edch dat od t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvou milion\u016f zn\u00e1m\u00fdch druh\u016f. V\u00fdsledkem je ostr\u00e1 v\u00fdtka eko-apokalyptick\u00fdm obav\u00e1m: tempo vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed dos\u00e1hlo vrcholu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u0159ed 100 lety \u2013 a od t\u00e9 doby v mnoha skupin\u00e1ch dokonce kleslo. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b skute\u010dn\u00fdch dat neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy o \u201erychle zrychlen\u00e9m\u201c vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed druh\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc \u010dasto zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 klima nehr\u00e1lo v posledn\u00edch 200 letech prakticky \u017e\u00e1dnou zjevnou roli jako p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d zdokumentovan\u00fdch vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 zrychlen\u00ed, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed trend, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd klimatick\u00fd impuls k vyhynut\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho to byly prim\u00e1rn\u011b invazivn\u00ed druhy na izolovan\u00fdch ostrovech, kter\u00e9 dohnaly \u0159adu druh\u016f k vyhynut\u00ed \u2013 krysy, prasata, kozy, kter\u00e9 sem zavl\u00e9kli lid\u00e9. V mnoha p\u0159\u00edpadech nebylo masov\u00e9 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u016fsobeno kriz\u00ed CO2, ale probl\u00e9mem kolonizace.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed tvrzen\u00ed alarmist\u016f se st\u00e1v\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm: \u017ee minul\u00e9 vzorce vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed lze jednodu\u0161e line\u00e1rn\u011b extrapolovat do budoucnosti. Studie odhaluje pr\u00e1v\u011b toto jako v\u011bdecky pochybn\u00e9 zjednodu\u0161en\u00ed. P\u0159\u00ed\u010diny minulosti a dne\u0161n\u00ed hrozby se z\u00e1sadn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed. Slep\u00e1 extrapolace historick\u00fdch vzorc\u016f do budoucnosti neprodukuje v\u011bdu, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e narativy. Nebo, \u0159e\u010deno m\u00e9n\u011b zdvo\u0159ile: politicky zneu\u017eiteln\u00e9 stra\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V minulosti byli obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b \u010dasto posti\u017eeni m\u011bkk\u00fd\u0161i a obratlovci na ostrovech, zat\u00edmco rostliny a \u010dlenovci vym\u00edrali relativn\u011b z\u0159\u00eddka. Na pevnin\u011b se vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed soust\u0159edilo p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ve sladkovodn\u00edch stanovi\u0161t\u00edch. Vzorec je jasn\u00fd: nejedn\u00e1 se o glob\u00e1ln\u011b jednotn\u00e9 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ech forem \u017eivota, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e o vysoce specifick\u00e9 ekologick\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed. To v\u016fbec neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 \u0161iroce roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 my\u0161lence univerz\u00e1ln\u00edho planet\u00e1rn\u00edho \u00fapadku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dne\u0161n\u00ed hrozby tak\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed zcela jin\u00fd obraz ne\u017e historick\u00e1 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco v minulosti dominovaly invazn\u00ed druhy, nyn\u00ed je prim\u00e1rn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem ni\u010den\u00ed biotop\u016f. To je bezpochyby v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 \u2013 ale nejedn\u00e1 se o n\u011bjakou apokalyptickou klimatickou katastrofu z \u010dist\u00e9ho nebe. Jde o klasick\u00e9 hospoda\u0159en\u00ed s p\u016fdou, pozemkovou politiku, infrastrukturu a urbanizaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdmluvn\u00e9 je prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed samotn\u00fdch autor\u016f studie: minul\u00e9 vzorce vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed jsou \u201eslab\u00fdmi a nespolehliv\u00fdmi prediktory\u201c sou\u010dasn\u00fdch rizik. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed soudn\u00e9ho dne je zalo\u017eena na metodologicky sporn\u00fdch p\u0159edpokladech. P\u0159esto pr\u00e1v\u011b tyto p\u0159edpoklady po l\u00e9ta tvo\u0159ily z\u00e1klad politick\u00fdch kampan\u00ed, zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed dan\u00ed, \u00fasporn\u00fdch na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho moralizov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i p\u0159irozen\u011b rychle preventivn\u011b vyvr\u00e1t\u00ed jak\u00e9koli myln\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry. Rozhodn\u011b necht\u011bj\u00ed vzbudit dojem, \u017ee lidsk\u00fd vliv je ne\u0161kodn\u00fd. To je pochopiteln\u00e9, proto\u017ee v akademick\u00e9 hierarchii klimatu je odchylka rychle ozna\u010dena za kac\u00ed\u0159stv\u00ed. Ale i s touto pojistkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 hlavn\u00ed poselstv\u00ed: narativ o zrychlen\u00e9m glob\u00e1ln\u00edm masov\u00e9m vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed jednodu\u0161e neobstoj\u00ed p\u0159i st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e9m zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed dat.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00edsto velk\u00e9ho fin\u00e1ln\u00edho st\u0159etu druh\u016f se objevuje mnohem komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obraz. V n\u011bkolika hlavn\u00edch skupin\u00e1ch \u2013 rostlin\u00e1ch, \u010dlenovc\u00edch a suchozemsk\u00fdch obratlovc\u00edch \u2013 m\u00edra vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed od po\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed kles\u00e1. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato \u00e9ra je \u010dasto politicky d\u00e9monizov\u00e1na jako za\u010d\u00e1tek ekologick\u00e9 destrukce. Pozoruhodn\u00fd rozpor s neust\u00e1lou propagandou o v\u0161epohlcuj\u00edc\u00edm pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9m v\u011bku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00fd smysl studie je tedy z\u00e1rove\u0148 politick\u00fd. Neust\u00e1l\u00e9 mluven\u00ed o \u201edopadech asteroid\u016f\u201c, jak to s\u00e1m Saban vyjad\u0159uje, \u010din\u00ed probl\u00e9my ne\u0159e\u0161iteln\u00fdmi. Ti, kdo pracuj\u00ed se skute\u010dn\u00fdmi daty, si v\u0161ak uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee ochrann\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed jsou \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1, \u017ee investice do ochrany druh\u016f jsou \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 \u2013 a \u017ee st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e1 environment\u00e1ln\u00ed politika je \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e hysterick\u00e1 klimatick\u00e1 panika. Panika generuje titulky. Preciznost vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pamatujete si \u00fadajn\u011b hroz\u00edc\u00ed masov\u00e9 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed? To bylo op\u011bt odvol\u00e1no. Panika byla p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e1. Apokalypsa odlo\u017eena….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94015,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[873,1503,3308,1435],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94014"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94014\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}