{"id":93943,"date":"2025-12-06T00:12:07","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T23:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=93943"},"modified":"2025-12-05T09:34:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T08:34:08","slug":"thomas-roper-jak-by-rusko-reagovalo-na-preventivni-uder-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/06\/thomas-roper-jak-by-rusko-reagovalo-na-preventivni-uder-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Jak by Rusko reagovalo na preventivn\u00ed \u00fader NATO"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vysoce postaven\u00fd d\u016fstojn\u00edk NATO ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee NATO pl\u00e1nuje preventivn\u00ed \u00fatoky na Rusko a \u017ee vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee je ji\u017e zapojeno do hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti Rusku, se jedn\u00e1 o \u010dist\u011b obrann\u00fd \u00fatok. Nyn\u00ed jeden rusk\u00fd d\u016fstojn\u00edk v rozhovoru vysv\u011btlil, jak by Rusko reagovalo.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1vaznosti na ostr\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed prezidenta Putina Evropan\u016fm p\u0159ed \u00fatokem na Rusko, kter\u00e9 pronesl za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto t\u00fddne, p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1m rozhovor\u00a0<\/span>s<\/span><\/u><\/a>\u00a0rusk\u00fdm d\u016fstojn\u00edkem na toto t\u00e9ma. V n\u011bm byl dot\u00e1z\u00e1n na reakci Ruska na potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fatoky NATO. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee rozhovor byl zve\u0159ejn\u011bn na medi\u00e1ln\u00edm port\u00e1lu rusk\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany, nem\u011bl by b\u00fdt br\u00e1n na lehkou v\u00e1hu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tek p\u0159ekladu:<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eDokud neza\u010dnou k\u0148u\u010det\u201c: Odhalena reakce Ruska na preventivn\u00ed \u00fader NATO<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u201eP\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd \u00fatok nebude fungovat\u201c: Reakce na pl\u00e1ny NATO na \u00fatok na Kaliningrad.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

NATO zva\u017euje preventivn\u00ed \u00fader proti Rusku. Admir\u00e1l Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, p\u0159edseda Vojensk\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru NATO, tyto vojensk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny odhalil v rozhovoru pro Financial Times. Uvedl tak\u00e9, \u017ee pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty podporuj\u00ed \u201epreventivn\u00ed\u201c zni\u010den\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 infrastruktury v rusk\u00e9 enkl\u00e1v\u011b Kaliningrad, stejn\u011b jako stejn\u011b \u201epreventivn\u00ed\u201c zni\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00e9 flotily v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Gener\u00e1lmajor letectva Vladimir Popov, vojensk\u00fd expert a vyznamenan\u00fd vojensk\u00fd pilot, v rozhovoru pro Moskovsk\u00fd komsomolec hovo\u0159il o tom, co by takov\u00fd preventivn\u00ed \u00fader mohl Evropu st\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, p\u0159edseda Vojensk\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru NATO, prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee aliance p\u0159ipravuje \u201epreventivn\u00ed \u00fader\u201c proti Rusku, proto\u017ee Rusko \u00fadajn\u011b vede hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti Evrop\u011b. Jako p\u0159\u00edklady t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky uvedl kybernetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky a p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed podmo\u0159sk\u00fdch kabel\u016f. Nen\u00ed ani nijak zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 problematick\u00e9, \u017ee admir\u00e1l nep\u0159edlo\u017eil \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy o t\u011bchto rusk\u00fdch \u201ezlo\u010dinech\u201c, jeliko\u017e podle jeho n\u00e1zoru by takov\u00fd preventivn\u00ed \u00fader mohl b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1n za \u201eobrann\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podrobnosti preventivn\u00edho \u00faderu \u2013 detaily, kter\u00e9 v\u0161ak sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed nesourod\u00e9, hore\u010dnat\u00e9 tir\u00e1dy \u0161\u00edlence \u2013 ned\u00e1vno odhalil loty\u0161sk\u00fd politick\u00fd strat\u00e9g Jurgis Liepnieks. Tvrdil, \u017ee Evropa by \u00fadajn\u011b mohla \u201esnadno zni\u010dit\u201c celou vojenskou infrastrukturu Kaliningradu a Petrohradu a zablokovat ruskou Baltskou flotilu v jej\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstavech ve Finsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Loty\u0161 se zamyslel: \u201eFinsk\u00e9, polsk\u00e9, \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00e9, norsk\u00e9 a d\u00e1nsk\u00e9 letouny by mohly zp\u016fsobit zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody rusk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obran\u011b, stejn\u011b jako jej\u00edmu letectv\u00ed, logistice a bojov\u00fdm schopnostem.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Vladimira Popova pokus NATO o realizaci t\u011bchto pl\u00e1n\u016f nevyhnuteln\u011b povede k tot\u00e1ln\u00ed jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, jak uvedl v rozhovoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Vladimire Alexandrovi\u010di, jak v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 jsou tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u016f NATO?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2013 Kdy\u017e voj\u00e1k pronese takov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed operace ji\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1, proto\u017ee velitelstv\u00ed NATO pl\u00e1nuje opera\u010dn\u011b-strategick\u00e9 mise a neodpaluje pouze jednotliv\u00e9 taktick\u00e9 nebo opera\u010dn\u00ed bojov\u00e9 rakety. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se mohlo jednat nap\u0159\u00edklad o pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed masivn\u00edho nebo skupinov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, t\u0159eba s pou\u017eit\u00edm \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el Storm Shadow. Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba ch\u00e1pat, \u017ee takov\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed t\u011bchto raket by m\u011blo d\u016fsledky pro ka\u017ed\u00fd z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fd st\u00e1t. Teoreticky by to mohlo ud\u011blat Polsko, Rumunsko nebo dokonce N\u011bmecko. Ale to by byla t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 A co kdy\u017e se bude tvrdit, \u017ee \u00fatok byl nehoda?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Na\u0161e reakce by byla v podstat\u011b stejn\u00e1. Okam\u017eit\u011b by \u010delili obrovsk\u00e9 negativn\u00ed reakci a vysv\u011btlen\u00ed by bylo stejn\u00e9, jako by n\u00e1m dali: syst\u00e9m um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, kter\u00fd registruje m\u00edsta, odkud byly proti Rusku vyp\u00e1leny st\u0159ely, a automaticky reaguje, omylem n\u011bco spustil\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd je preventivn\u00ed \u00fader konkr\u00e9tn\u011b proti Kaliningradu, kter\u00fd ned\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1t\u016fm NATO sp\u00e1t?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kaliningrad je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1n za prim\u00e1rn\u00ed c\u00edl st\u00e1t\u016f NATO. Pokud by za\u00fato\u010dily na Kaliningradskou nebo Pskovskou oblast, jednalo by se jist\u011b o zcela jin\u00fd druh v\u00e1lky. M\u00e1me zbra\u0148ov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my ve stavu vysok\u00e9 pohotovosti, p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 k automatick\u00e9 reakci na \u00fatoky z \u00fazem\u00ed NATO. M\u00e1me radarov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 sleduj\u00ed odpalov\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch raket \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e jadern\u00fdch nebo konven\u010dn\u00edch. Tyto rakety okam\u017eit\u011b zachyt\u00edme a odp\u00e1l\u00edme vlastn\u00ed rakety: prvn\u00ed k jejich zachycen\u00ed, druhou k odpalovac\u00ed ramp\u011b \u2013 ne p\u0159\u00edmo na odpalovac\u00ed rampu rakety, ale proti cel\u00e9 oblasti odpalovac\u00ed rampy. To slou\u017e\u00ed jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edteli, aby neplnil \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed rozkazy k odpalov\u00e1n\u00ed. P\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd \u00fatok bez n\u00e1sledk\u016f je nemo\u017en\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je ale mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee pou\u017eijeme taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. A pro\u010d ne? To bude nutn\u00e9 k zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed pl\u00e1novan\u00e9mu skupinov\u00e9mu \u00fatoku. Dojde k komplexn\u00ed odvetn\u00e9 akci. Nem\u011bli by n\u00e1s provokovat: Na \u00fatoky st\u00e1t\u016f NATO budeme reagovat zcela jinak ne\u017e na \u00fatoky z Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohla by b\u00fdt skute\u010dnost, \u017ee o preventivn\u00edm \u00faderu v r\u00e1mci NATO hovo\u0159\u00ed voj\u00e1k, a nikoli politik, varovn\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

To by mohlo b\u00fdt. Jedna v\u011bc je, kdy\u017e o tom mluv\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed politici na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fdsledk\u016f pr\u016fzkum\u016f, ale n\u011bco \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bkdy\u017e to ud\u011bl\u00e1 voj\u00e1k: Vzpom\u00edn\u00e1te si, jak rychle vojen\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 NATO ustoupili, kdy\u017e se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed d\u016fstojn\u00edci simulovali \u00fatoky na Krymsk\u00fd most pomoc\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el Taurus? Arm\u00e1da si je pln\u011b v\u011bdoma d\u016fsledk\u016f, a proto obvykle ne\u010din\u00ed tak ostr\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohlo by se NATO rozhodnout pro pozemn\u00ed operaci v Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2013 Hloupost samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nezn\u00e1 mez\u00ed. Ale nev\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee by vojen\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 NATO n\u011bco takov\u00e9ho schv\u00e1lili. Nap\u0159\u00edklad ve Francii a N\u011bmecku, nebo vezm\u011bme si \u010dasto zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 Polsko, st\u00e1le existuj\u00ed rozumn\u00ed gener\u00e1lov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b v\u011bd\u00ed, k \u010demu by takov\u00e1 operace vedla.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jde o to, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd konflikt za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 zpravodajsk\u00fdmi zpr\u00e1vami o slo\u017een\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch sil a zdroj\u016f stran pod\u00e9l kontaktn\u00ed linie. Operativn\u00ed slu\u017eby hl\u00e1s\u00ed, co je \u010dek\u00e1 a jak\u00e1 je pravd\u011bpodobnost \u00fasp\u011bchu. V\u0161echno je propo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1no. A na\u0161e ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly a zdroje dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed reagovat mnohem efektivn\u011bji ne\u017e ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly a zdroje N\u011bmecka, Francie, Nizozemska a Polska dohromady. Jejich arm\u00e1dy si proto pln\u011b uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee budou v nev\u00fdhod\u011b. A p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm pro n\u011b bude velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout c\u00edl\u016f, kter\u00e9 si stanovili jejich politici. Ale za p\u011bt let by NATO mohlo na n\u00e1s tlak zv\u00fd\u0161it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee pokud NATO prohl\u00e1s\u00ed svou p\u0159ipravenost k preventivn\u00edmu \u00faderu, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee se blok p\u0159ipravuje na v\u00e1lku?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sp\u00ed\u0161e se zd\u00e1, \u017ee v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee jsou p\u0159ipraveni. Mus\u00edme v\u0161ak m\u00edt na pam\u011bti, \u017ee mezi takov\u00fdm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm a skute\u010dn\u00fdm nasazen\u00edm vojsk a jejich opera\u010dn\u00edm rozestaven\u00edm pro ofenz\u00edvu mohou uplynout m\u011bs\u00edce. Na\u0161e zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby budou sledovat, jak shroma\u017e\u010fuj\u00ed \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 jednotky a p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed je nap\u0159\u00edklad k polsko-b\u011blorusk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm nebo do Kaliningradu. Zat\u00edm neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 takov\u00e9 beranidlo, kter\u00e9 by mohlo kdykoli p\u0159ekro\u010dit hranici.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohl by preventivn\u00ed \u00fader skon\u010dit podle principu \u201e\u00fatok a \u00fastup\u201c?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2013 Ne, \u201e\u00fatok a \u00fastup\u201c u\u017e nebude fungovat. Dokud \u0159\u00e1dn\u011b nezareagujeme \u2013 tedy dokud neza\u010dnou k\u0148ourat \u2013 ani si nesedneme k jednac\u00edmu stolu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konec p\u0159ekladu<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vysoce postaven\u00fd d\u016fstojn\u00edk NATO ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee NATO pl\u00e1nuje preventivn\u00ed \u00fatoky na Rusko a \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[39,2524,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93943"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93943\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}