{"id":93921,"date":"2025-12-05T05:38:02","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T04:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=93921"},"modified":"2025-12-05T05:38:02","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T04:38:02","slug":"andrew-korybko-nejnovejsi-energeticka-mocenska-strategie-usa-by-mohla-zhorsit-rusko-turecke-napeti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/05\/andrew-korybko-nejnovejsi-energeticka-mocenska-strategie-usa-by-mohla-zhorsit-rusko-turecke-napeti\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e1 mocensk\u00e1 strategie USA by mohla zhor\u0161it rusko-tureck\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rusko by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fasp\u011bchu americk\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f nejen\u017ee ztratilo des\u00edtky miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, ale nap\u011bt\u00ed s Tureckem by se mohlo st\u00e1t nezvladateln\u00fdm, pokud by se naru\u0161ila slo\u017eit\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost, kter\u00e1 je doposud spojovala, co\u017e by mohlo destabilizovat ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zelenskyj minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc\u00a0<\/span>ozn\u00e1mil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee Ukrajina bude dov\u00e1\u017eet americk\u00fd LNG z \u0158ecka prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm plynovodu \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed plynov\u00fd koridor\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c. Tento projekt dopl\u0148uje\u00a0<\/span>spole\u010dn\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny Polska s USA\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a v men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e i s Chorvatskem na LNG, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem je polo\u017eit z\u00e1klady pro to, aby americk\u00fd LNG jednoho dne zcela nahradil rusk\u00fd plyn ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. A\u010dkoli je to mnohem dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, tv\u016frci politik na kontinentu s t\u00edm souhlas\u00ed pod z\u00e1minkou energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti, ale tlak USA na n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sehr\u00e1l v jejich rozhodnut\u00ed hlavn\u00ed roli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e1 mocensk\u00e1 akce USA by mohla tak\u00e9 ukon\u010dit rusk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny na v\u00fdstavbu plynov\u00e9ho uzlu v Turecku. Ty byly\u00a0<\/span>ozn\u00e1meny\u00a0<\/span><\/a>koncem roku 2022 po jedn\u00e1n\u00edch mezi Putinem a Erdoganem, ale\u00a0<\/span>agentura Bloomberg\u00a0<\/span><\/a>loni v \u010dervnu informovala, \u017ee byly odlo\u017eeny kv\u016fli technick\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm s dod\u00e1vkami plynu ze st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy z Turecka a tak\u00e9 kv\u016fli neshod\u00e1m mezi Tureckem a Ruskem. Ani jedna ze stran jejich zpr\u00e1vu nepotvrdila, ale nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e USA z\u00edskaly v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl na trhu st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm plynovodu \u201eVertik\u00e1ln\u00ed plynov\u00fd koridor\u201c, se pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdstavby tohoto uzlu sn\u00ed\u017eila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alex Christoforou z Duranu napsal\u00a0<\/span>na X pou\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, v n\u011bm\u017e d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9m zp\u016fsobem poznamenal, \u017ee \u201ev\u00fdchodn\u00ed St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed (Izrael a Kypr) pozorn\u011b sleduje za\u010d\u00e1tek v\u00fdstavby tohoto vertik\u00e1ln\u00edho koridoru, proto\u017ee jej lze v budoucnu vyu\u017e\u00edt k prodeji plynu z EastMed do Evropy\u201c. \u201e\u00a0<\/span>EastMed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c ozna\u010duje navrhovan\u00fd podvodn\u00ed plynovod stejn\u00e9ho jm\u00e9na pro export\u00a0<\/span>obrovsk\u00fdch izraelsk\u00fdch z\u00e1sob plynu z mo\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>do EU. Jeho dokon\u010den\u00ed by v kombinaci s americk\u00fdm LNG pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b trvale eliminovalo pot\u0159ebu rusk\u00e9ho plynu ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby toho pro Rusko nebylo m\u00e1lo, agentura Reuters minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc informovala, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159echod Turecka na plyn ohro\u017euje Rusko a posledn\u00ed velk\u00fd evropsk\u00fd trh\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c, co\u017e upozornilo na to, jak by zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce a dovoz LNG mohly v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit budouc\u00ed pot\u0159ebu Turecka po rusk\u00e9m plynu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm plynovodu TurkStream. Trumpova\u00a0<\/span>hrozba sankc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v\u016f\u010di v\u0161em, kte\u0159\u00ed budou pokra\u010dovat v dovozu rusk\u00e9 energie, ani\u017e by se od n\u00ed prokazateln\u011b vzdali, a kter\u00e9 by mohly m\u00edt podobu a\u017e 500% cel, by tento trend mohla urychlit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko by nejen\u017ee p\u0159i\u0161lo o des\u00edtky miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, pokud by v\u0161echny v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny usp\u011bly, ale nap\u011bt\u00ed s Tureckem by se mohlo st\u00e1t nezvladateln\u00fdm, pokud by se p\u0159eru\u0161ila slo\u017eit\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost, kter\u00e1 je doposud spojovala. Ji\u017e nyn\u00ed se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Turecko\u00a0<\/span>vnese z\u00e1padn\u00ed vliv do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie\u00a0<\/span><\/a>prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>nov\u00e9ho koridoru TRIPP\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, co\u017e by p\u0159edstavovalo\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdzvy na cel\u00e9m ji\u017en\u00edm okraji Ruska\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, co\u017e by d\u00e1le zkomplikovalo turecko-rusk\u00e9 vztahy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se jejich komplexn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost do t\u00e9 doby oslab\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad pokud jejich pl\u00e1ny na plynov\u00fd uzel v podstat\u011b z\u016fstanou zmrazeny nebo budou ofici\u00e1ln\u011b zru\u0161eny a Turecko za\u010dne dov\u00e1\u017eet m\u00e9n\u011b rusk\u00e9ho plynu z TurkStreamu, pak by Turecko mohlo z\u00edskat odvahu k agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu vyzv\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska v t\u00e9to oblasti. Koneckonc\u016f, sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kdy Rusko zastav\u00ed v\u00fdvoz plynu, aby si b\u011bhem krize vynutilo \u00fastupky od Turecka, by byl m\u00e9n\u011b efektivn\u00ed, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k tvrd\u0161\u00edm postoj\u016fm Turecka, kter\u00e9 zvy\u0161uj\u00ed riziko v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko by se proto m\u011blo sna\u017eit o\u017eivit sv\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny na plynov\u00fd uzel a dos\u00e1hnout dohody s USA, mo\u017en\u00e1 jako sou\u010d\u00e1st velk\u00e9 dohody, kterou se pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f\u00a0<\/span>sna\u017e\u00ed vyjednat\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, aby si zajistilo rusk\u00fd pod\u00edl na trhu s plynem v Turecku a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b obnovilo jeho \u010d\u00e1st ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. To by t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b\u00a0<\/span>vy\u017eadovalo, aby Rusko slehlo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>n\u011bkter\u00e9 ze sv\u00fdch maximalistick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b, a slova USA nelze br\u00e1t jako samoz\u0159ejmost, proto\u017ee budouc\u00ed prezidenti by mohli jakoukoli dohodu odm\u00edtnout, ale Rusko by tuto mo\u017enost m\u011blo i tak zv\u00e1\u017eit, m\u00edsto aby ji vylu\u010dovalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusko by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fasp\u011bchu americk\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f nejen\u017ee ztratilo des\u00edtky miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, ale…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93922,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2929,22,55,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93921"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93921\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93922"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}