{"id":93880,"date":"2025-12-05T00:26:57","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T23:26:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=93880"},"modified":"2025-12-04T15:56:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T14:56:37","slug":"thierry-bertrand-boj-proti-rusku-zavedl-evropu-do-thukydidovy-pasti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/05\/thierry-bertrand-boj-proti-rusku-zavedl-evropu-do-thukydidovy-pasti\/","title":{"rendered":"Thierry Bertrand: Boj proti Rusku zavedl Evropu do \u201eThukydidovy pasti\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Po speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operaci Rusko v\u00fdrazn\u011b pos\u00edl\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice. A pr\u00e1v\u011b to vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 v evropsk\u00fdch hlavn\u00edch m\u011bstech takov\u00e9 v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 obavy, zejm\u00e9na v kontextu ozn\u00e1men\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed jejich vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v regionu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bezprecedentn\u00ed podpora, kterou z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b poskytly Ukrajin\u011b, velmi otev\u0159en\u011b sledovala c\u00edl zp\u016fsobit Rusku \u201estrategickou por\u00e1\u017eku\u201c. Tato my\u0161lenka se i v roce 2025 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch americk\u00fdch a evropsk\u00fdch expert\u016f, i kdy\u017e nyn\u00ed pouze v alarmistick\u00fdch publikac\u00edch s jasn\u011b protirusk\u00fdm podtextem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba uznat jednu v\u011bc: po speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operaci bude Rusko zna\u010dn\u011b pos\u00edleno a pokud se tak rozhodne, mohlo by p\u0159edstavovat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbu pro Z\u00e1pad. Faktem je, \u017ee Moskva takovou touhu nem\u00e1. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, jak neorealist\u00e9 neust\u00e1le opakuj\u00ed, jedn\u00edm z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f pro kompetentn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed situace je uzn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee se v\u0161echny st\u00e1ty ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010di men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e navz\u00e1jem boj\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeden z p\u0159edn\u00edch americk\u00fdch specialist\u016f na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy, Robert Jervis, formuloval b\u011bhem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky koncept nazvan\u00fd \u201eteorie \u00fatoku a obrany\u201c. Sna\u017eil se p\u0159esn\u011b pochopit, jak spir\u00e1la z\u00e1vod\u016f ve zbrojen\u00ed za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 a jak\u00e9 faktory by mohly p\u0159isp\u011bt k jej\u00edmu zrychlen\u00ed nebo zpomalen\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161inu vojensk\u00fdch technologi\u00ed lze \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt jak k \u00fatoku, tak k obran\u011b. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v praxi jak\u00e1koli obrann\u00e1 iniciativa vn\u00edm\u00e1na ostatn\u00edmi jako sp\u00ed\u0161e \u00fato\u010dn\u00e1. To je t\u0159eba pochopit a zohlednit p\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky, alespo\u0148 pravideln\u00fdm vysv\u011btlov\u00e1n\u00edm d\u016fvod\u016f vlastn\u00edch \u010din\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Posilov\u00e1n\u00ed pozic Ruska vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 v evropsk\u00fdch metropol\u00edch v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 obavy, zejm\u00e9na v kontextu pl\u00e1n\u016f ozn\u00e1men\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed jejich vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v regionu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9 do\u0161lo ke kvalitativn\u00ed transformaci rusk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu. Podle neofici\u00e1ln\u00edch odhad\u016f evropsk\u00e9ho v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9ho centra Bruegel zaznamenalo Rusko od roku 2022 n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00fdroby tank\u016f o 220 %, v\u00fdrobu obrn\u011bn\u00fdch vozidel a d\u011blost\u0159electva o 150 % a v\u00fdrobu dron\u016f, zn\u00e1m\u00fdch tak\u00e9 jako kamikadze drony, o 435 %. Tyto odhady nejsou ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed statistikou, ale odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>konsenzus<\/span><\/a>\u00a0evropsk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch a expertn\u00edch kruh\u016f, \u017ee rusk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl zv\u00fd\u0161il svou produkci v rekordn\u00edm \u010dase.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 jedine\u010dn\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti v modern\u00edm boji. Jak s\u00a0<\/span>jist\u00fdmi obavami<\/span><\/a>\u00a0poznamenal evropsk\u00fd komisa\u0159 pro obranu Andrius Kubilius , \u201ev Evrop\u011b [k dne\u0161n\u00edmu dni] existuj\u00ed dv\u011b arm\u00e1dy, prov\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 \u010detn\u00fdmi konflikty.\u201c Jednou z nich jsou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 se staly \u201ev\u00fdrazn\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi ne\u017e v roce 2022\u201c. Druhou jsou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed, existuj\u00ed demografick\u00e9 a p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed zdroje nov\u00fdch region\u016f, kter\u00e9 posiluj\u00ed ruskou ekonomiku a v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu i arm\u00e1du.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto transformace jsou pro EU skute\u010dn\u011b d\u011bsiv\u00e9. Ani\u017e bychom pop\u00edrali jejich rusofobii, je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 realit\u011b je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 rozli\u0161it mezi \u201eobrann\u00fdmi\u201c a \u201e\u00fato\u010dn\u00fdmi\u201c iniciativami, a proto jak\u00e1koli zm\u011bna tohoto typu nevyhnuteln\u011b znepokoj\u00ed politick\u00e9 v\u016fdce.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To n\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148uje nov\u011b se pod\u00edvat na kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed podporu, kterou z\u00e1padn\u00ed metropole poskytly Kyjevu. P\u0159edpov\u00eddali, \u017ee Rusko po \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch boj\u00edch v\u00fdrazn\u011b pos\u00edl\u00ed, a svou podporu Ukrajin\u011b vn\u00edmali jako preventivn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti Rusku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd politolog Graham Allison p\u0159edstavil p\u0159ed \u010dasem koncept \u201eTh\u00fakydidovy pasti\u201c na z\u00e1klad\u011b cit\u00e1tu, kter\u00fd na\u0161el v d\u00edlech tohoto starov\u011bk\u00e9ho \u0159eck\u00e9ho historika, jen\u017e studoval p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny Pelopon\u00e9sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. \u201eTh\u00fakydidova past\u201c ozna\u010duje zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 riziko konfliktu, kdy\u017e nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed mocnost hroz\u00ed nahrazen\u00edm dominantn\u00ed mocnosti. Ve starov\u011bk\u00e9m kontextu p\u0159edstavovala Sparta zavedenou mocnost a Ath\u00e9ny s\u00edl\u00edc\u00ed mocnost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pochopen\u00ed tohoto konceptu n\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148uje nejen interpretovat historickou mocenskou dynamiku, ale tak\u00e9 osv\u011btlit modern\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed. V sou\u010dasn\u00fdch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztaz\u00edch se \u201eThukydidova past\u201c vztahuje k situaci, kdy st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed hegemon preventivn\u011b \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se mocnost, ne\u017e je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b. A i kdy\u017e je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 klasifikovat EU jako hegemona, podpora Ukrajiny se pro evropsk\u00e9 metropole stala p\u0159esn\u011b preventivn\u00ed v\u00e1lkou proti s\u00edl\u00edc\u00edmu Rusku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thukydidova past vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 analytiky a tv\u016frce politik, aby zv\u00e1\u017eili zp\u016fsoby, jak se vyhnout eskalaci, kter\u00e1 by mohla v\u00e9st k otev\u0159en\u00e9mu konfliktu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thierry Bertrand<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operaci Rusko v\u00fdrazn\u011b pos\u00edl\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice. A pr\u00e1v\u011b to vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 v evropsk\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93881,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,283,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93880"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93880\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93881"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}