{"id":93748,"date":"2025-12-03T06:01:19","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T05:01:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=93748"},"modified":"2025-12-03T06:01:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T05:01:19","slug":"uriel-araujo-nejvetsi-obchodni-dohoda-v-historii-obchodni-dohoda-mezi-eu-a-mercosurem-a-jeji-vyzvy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/12\/03\/uriel-araujo-nejvetsi-obchodni-dohoda-v-historii-obchodni-dohoda-mezi-eu-a-mercosurem-a-jeji-vyzvy\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed dohoda v historii? Obchodn\u00ed dohoda mezi EU a Mercosurem a jej\u00ed v\u00fdzvy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Braz\u00edlie se p\u0159ipravuje na podpis dohody mezi EU a Mercosurem, kter\u00e1 by se mohla st\u00e1t nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed dohodou na sv\u011bt\u011b. Zat\u00edmco Trumpova celn\u00ed politika ot\u0159\u00e1s\u00e1 tradi\u010dn\u00edmi obchodn\u00edmi vzorci, Braz\u00edlie usiluje o diverzifikaci. Tento krok odhaluje strategii v\u00edcestrann\u00e9 politiky v polarizovan\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomice, ale v\u00fdzvy p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed brazilsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Luly da Silvy, \u017ee obchodn\u00ed dohoda mezi Mercosurem a Evropskou uni\u00ed (EU) bude podeps\u00e1na 20. prosince, je diplomatick\u00fdm miln\u00edkem. Dohoda, kter\u00e1 je ozna\u010dov\u00e1na za nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed dohodu v historii (v Ji\u017en\u00ed Americe, kterou z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti prosazuje Braz\u00edlie), by spojila dva ekonomick\u00e9 bloky zastupuj\u00edc\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 718 milion\u016f lid\u00ed a jejich\u017e kombinovan\u00fd HDP se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>22 bilion\u016fm americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Bruselsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed pod veden\u00edm Ursuly von der Leyen ozna\u010duje tuto dohodu za nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, jakou kdy EU vyjednala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sv\u011bt\u011b m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edch se alianc\u00ed, ekonomick\u00e9ho tlaku a nejistoty v dodavatelsk\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci (v dob\u011b Trumpa) vys\u00edl\u00e1 Bras\u00edlia jasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l: Ji\u017en\u00ed Amerika hled\u00e1 diverzifikovanou platformu partner\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla, kter\u00e1 stoj\u00ed za touto ambic\u00ed, jsou dostate\u010dn\u011b p\u016fsobiv\u00e1. V roce 2024 EU dovezla\u00a0z jihoamerick\u00e9ho bloku (Mercosur) zbo\u017e\u00ed v hodnot\u011b\u00a0<\/span>56,0 miliard eur a vyvezla zp\u011bt zbo\u017e\u00ed v hodnot\u011b 55,2 miliardy eur \u2013 celkov\u00fd obchodn\u00ed tok p\u0159es\u00e1hl\u00a0<\/span><\/a>111 miliard eur<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Za posledn\u00ed desetilet\u00ed se dovoz EU z Mercosuru zv\u00fd\u0161il o v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 %, zat\u00edmco v\u00fdvoz vzrostl zhruba o\u00a0<\/span>25 %<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed rostouc\u00ed vz\u00e1jemnou z\u00e1vislost, i kdy\u017e za asymetrick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek. Braz\u00edlie v tomto obchodu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 drtiv\u011b dominantn\u00ed a p\u0159edstavuje\u00a0<\/span>v\u00edce ne\u017e 80 %<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ve\u0161ker\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny mezi EU a Mercosurem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Braz\u00edlii je potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00ednos jasn\u00fd. Podle vl\u00e1dn\u00edch odhad\u016f by pln\u00e9 proveden\u00ed dohody mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>94,2 miliardy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0real\u016f (neboli 17,64 miliardy USD) \u2013 co\u017e je zhruba o 5,1 % v\u00edce ne\u017e sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 \u2013 a p\u0159in\u00e9st dlouhodob\u00fd zisk z HDP ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 37 miliard real\u016f (6,93 miliardy USD).<\/span><\/p>\n

Konkr\u00e9tn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, agentura pro podporu exportu v Rio de Janeiru o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst brazilsk\u00e9ho exportu do Evropy o\u00a0<\/span>7 miliard USD<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, existuje skute\u010dn\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e1 motivace \u2013 nejen pro zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a komodity, ale i pro Braz\u00edlii, aby se znovu za\u010dlenila do glob\u00e1ln\u00edch hodnotov\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f za p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch podm\u00ednek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z pohledu Evropy nab\u00edz\u00ed dohoda jak ekonomick\u00e9, tak geopolitick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. EU by si mohla zajistit stabiln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k surovin\u00e1m, zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdm komodit\u00e1m a d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm vstup\u016fm. Na opl\u00e1tku by evropsk\u00e9 firmy z\u00edskaly\u00a0<\/span>\u00falevu od cel<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a lep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup na trh se stroji, l\u00e9\u010divy, vozidly a\u00a0<\/span>dal\u0161\u00edm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vysoce hodnotn\u00fdm pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdm zbo\u017e\u00edm. Obnoven\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce EU s Mercosurem by tak\u00e9 slou\u017eila jako prost\u0159edek k zachov\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch dodavatelsk\u00fdch tras a diverzifikaci z\u00e1vislost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc by tato dohoda podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch mohla Bruselu pomoci vyv\u00e1\u017eit rostouc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd vliv v Latinsk\u00e9 Americe. V tomto konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm smyslu by to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bylo v z\u00e1jmu Washingtonu. Na druhou stranu Evropa v t\u00e9to h\u0159e s USA tak\u00e9 soupe\u0159\u00ed o zak\u00e1zky, vliv a tak d\u00e1le.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b cesta vp\u0159ed zdaleka nen\u00ed hladk\u00e1: politick\u00e9 a regula\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed. V Evrop\u011b se \u010d\u00e1sti politick\u00e9 a podnikatelsk\u00e9 t\u0159\u00eddy \u2013 zejm\u00e9na mezi z\u00e1jmov\u00fdmi skupinami v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a \u017eivotn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u2013\u00a0<\/span>obr\u00e1tily<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na Evropsk\u00fd parlament s petic\u00ed, aby po\u017e\u00e1dal Soudn\u00ed dv\u016fr Evropsk\u00e9 unie (ESD) o p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1n\u00ed, zda je smlouva v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podob\u011b\u00a0<\/span>v souladu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s pr\u00e1vem EU. Mezi vznesen\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky pat\u0159\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ha, regula\u010dn\u00ed standardy a zachov\u00e1n\u00ed tzv. \u201ez\u00e1sady p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 opatrnosti\u201c. N\u00e1vrh byl\u00a0<\/span>zablokov\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z \u201eprocedur\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f\u201c, ale politick\u00e1 debata zdaleka nen\u00ed mrtv\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tvrd\u00ed se , \u017ee obava spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed z Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdvoz zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f a surovin \u2013 by mohlo podkopat evropsk\u00e9 v\u00fdrobce zvykl\u00e9 na p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>environment\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, hygienick\u00e9 a pracovn\u00ed normy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na stran\u011b Mercosuru bude muset dohoda, i kdy\u017e bude podeps\u00e1na, proj\u00edt ratifikac\u00ed v n\u011bkolika parlamentech (\u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f EU a zem\u00ed Mercosuru) a pot\u00e9 proj\u00edt dlouh\u00fdm, postupn\u00fdm zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed cel a otev\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed trh\u016f bude prob\u00edhat postupn\u011b v pr\u016fb\u011bhu let \u2013 nebo dokonce desetilet\u00ed \u2013 mnoho o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch zisk\u016f m\u016f\u017ee z\u016fstat neaktivn\u00edch nebo podl\u00e9hat politice, regulaci a ekonomick\u00fdm cykl\u016fm. Implementace by se tak mohla zdr\u017eet, zastavit nebo oslabit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zast\u00e1nci p\u0159esto\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee to nab\u00edz\u00ed historickou \u0161anci p\u0159em\u011bnit Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriku z v\u00fdvozce komodit na dlouhodob\u00e9ho partnera v udr\u017eiteln\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomice \u2013 za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee se ob\u011b strany zav\u00e1\u017eou k jasn\u00e9, dlouhodob\u00e9 vizi (to je ta o\u0161emetn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st).<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm kontextu nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky \u2013 s dedolarizac\u00ed,\u00a0<\/span>BRICS<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, rostouc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u010d\u00ednskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v Latinsk\u00e9 Americe, p\u0159eskupen\u00edm dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f a kol\u00edsav\u00fdm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm mocensk\u00fdm uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00edm \u2013 tato dohoda signalizuje, \u017ee Braz\u00edlie (hlavn\u00ed prosazovatel dohody na kontinentu) se nestav\u00ed do role sou\u010d\u00e1sti \u201eprotiz\u00e1padn\u00edho bloku\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pravda, \u017ee zem\u011b prohloubila vazby s \u010c\u00ednou a zem\u011bmi BRICS a ekonomicky i politicky se sbl\u00ed\u017eila s blokem mimo z\u00e1padn\u00ed ob\u011b\u017enou dr\u00e1hu. Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed byly Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty hlavn\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem a ekonomick\u00fdm referen\u010dn\u00edm bodem Braz\u00edlie \u2013 to se zm\u011bnilo: od roku 2009\u00a0<\/span>\u010c\u00edna p\u0159edstihla<\/span><\/a>\u00a0USA jako nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho obchodn\u00edho partnera Braz\u00edlie a dnes absorbuje\u00a0<\/span>v\u00edce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0brazilsk\u00e9ho exportu ne\u017e USA a Evropsk\u00e1 unie dohromady \u2013 tento posun ilustruje, jak se brazilsk\u00e1 vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 orientace ji\u017e posunula na v\u00fdchod, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e USA jsou st\u00e1le\u00a0<\/span>druh\u00fdm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0hlavn\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem (Argentina je na t\u0159et\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b).<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto obnoven\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o partnerstv\u00ed s EU v\u0161ak ukazuje logiku mnohostrann\u00e9 anga\u017eovanosti, flexibility a pragmatismu. Braz\u00edlie diverzifikuje partnery, \u010d\u00edm\u017e si zaji\u0161\u0165uje sv\u00e9 mo\u017enosti v nov\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00edm multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z \u010dist\u011b ekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska v\u0161ak asymetrie p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1: Mercosur m\u00e1 tendenci vyv\u00e1\u017eet suroviny a komodity; EU vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed, l\u00e9\u010diva a stroje. Tato struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed nerovnov\u00e1ha by se mohla prom\u00edtnout do politicky citliv\u00fdch naru\u0161en\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na pro evropsk\u00e9 v\u00fdrobce (s v\u00fdrazn\u011b dotovan\u00fdm zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00edm v Evrop\u011b). Vysoce regulovan\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed producenti nejsou nutn\u011b spokojeni s konkurenc\u00ed levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho exportu Mercosuru \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Braz\u00edlie (stejn\u011b jako dal\u0161\u00ed jihoameri\u010dt\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di) douf\u00e1, \u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed svou exportn\u00ed paletu a znovu ukotv\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed toky. Evropa se zase sna\u017e\u00ed zajistit p\u0159\u00edstup k surovin\u00e1m a diverzifikovat zdroje dod\u00e1vek a z\u00e1rove\u0148 nab\u00eddnout evropsk\u00e9mu pr\u016fmyslu roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 trhy. Na druhou stranu, regula\u010dn\u00ed t\u0159en\u00ed, politick\u00e1 volatilita a institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed odpor mohou slibovan\u00e9 zisky oslabit \u2013 nebo dokonce zhatit.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, s Trumpem, kter\u00fd prom\u011bnil obchod ve zbra\u0148 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm cel a \u0161ok\u016f, se USA nyn\u00ed jev\u00ed jako nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 a nespolehliv\u00e9. V reakci na to by se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd hlavn\u00ed blok se v r\u00e1mci ekonomick\u00e9 sebeobrany zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na diverzifikaci partnerstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Braz\u00edlie se p\u0159ipravuje na podpis dohody mezi EU a Mercosurem, kter\u00e1 by se mohla st\u00e1t…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93749,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[288,41,9895,6520],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93748"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93748"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93748\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}