{"id":93238,"date":"2025-11-28T00:12:52","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T23:12:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=93238"},"modified":"2025-11-27T14:08:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T13:08:50","slug":"rozpor-mezi-modely-a-merenimi-vedci-opravuji-klimaticke-hypotezy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/28\/rozpor-mezi-modely-a-merenimi-vedci-opravuji-klimaticke-hypotezy\/","title":{"rendered":"Rozpor mezi modely a m\u011b\u0159en\u00edmi: V\u011bdci opravuj\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 hypot\u00e9zy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Jin\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00e1 anal\u00fdza zpochyb\u0148uje klimatickou apokalyptickou rovnici, kter\u00e1 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00edce CO2 v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e vede k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm teplot\u00e1m. V\u011bdci pou\u017eili re\u00e1ln\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed a v\u011bdeck\u00e9 rekonstrukce, nikoli primitivn\u00ed modely s fantastick\u00fdmi \u010d\u00edsly.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco klimati\u010dt\u00ed alarmist\u00e9 se p\u0159i prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 dystopick\u00e9 agendy rad\u011bji spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 modelov\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty, v klimatick\u00e9m v\u00fdzkumu existuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200brealist\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed svou pr\u00e1ci prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed se skute\u010dn\u00fdmi, re\u00e1ln\u00fdmi nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdmi daty. Jednou z takov\u00fdch studi\u00ed je studie publikovan\u00e1 v renomovan\u00e9m \u010dasopise PNAS s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span>\u010casov\u011b prom\u011bnn\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd rozpo\u010det od roku 1880 z rekonstrukce oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed oce\u00e1n\u016f<\/span><\/a> \u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i studie zkoumali v\u00fdvoj energetick\u00fdch tok\u016f v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm klimatick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu mezi lety 1880 a 2020 a porovnali je s p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edmi modelov\u00fdmi p\u0159edpoklady, kter\u00e9 po l\u00e9ta dominovaly klimatick\u00fdm projekc\u00edm. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho dosp\u011bli k jasn\u00e9mu z\u00e1v\u011bru: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady v projekc\u00edch alarmuj\u00edc\u00edho, CO2 vyvolan\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch desetilet\u00edch jsou zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1ny novou dlouhodobou anal\u00fdzou energetick\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c Studie tak upozor\u0148uje na d\u0159\u00edve m\u00e1lo pov\u0161imnut\u00fd rozpor mezi teoretick\u00fdmi modelov\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi a skute\u010dn\u011b nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdmi energetick\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami na Zemi. Tyto odchylky nejsou margin\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed a zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed stabilitu cel\u00fdch prognostick\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V nov\u00e9 studii v\u011bdci uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee modelov\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady o reakci p\u0159\u00edrody na \u00fadajn\u011b \u010dlov\u011bkem vyvolan\u00e9 radia\u010dn\u00ed p\u016fsoben\u00ed \u2013 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm absorpce tepla oce\u00e1nem, tepeln\u00e9 rozta\u017enosti a stoup\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed \u2013 se dob\u0159e neshoduj\u00ed s pozorov\u00e1n\u00edmi z posledn\u00edch desetilet\u00ed. Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pozoruhodn\u00e9 je obdob\u00ed mezi lety 2000 a 2020, proto\u017ee teoreticky p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst radia\u010dn\u00edho p\u016fsoben\u00ed byl v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e skute\u010dn\u011b nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd energetick\u00fd p\u0159ebytek Zem\u011b. Zat\u00edmco modely p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Zem\u011b absorbovala m\u00e9n\u011b dodate\u010dn\u00e9 energie, ne\u017e by nazna\u010dovaly modelov\u00e9 hodnoty. Auto\u0159i zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 p\u016fsoben\u00ed b\u011bhem t\u011bchto dvou desetilet\u00ed je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o pades\u00e1t procent vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e skute\u010dn\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 p\u0159ebytky, co\u017e v\u00fdrazn\u011b sni\u017euje spolehlivost model\u016f pr\u00e1v\u011b pro toto obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V cel\u00e9m obdob\u00ed od roku 1880 do roku 2020 se objevuje dal\u0161\u00ed vzorec, kter\u00fd se dot\u00fdk\u00e1 j\u00e1dra mnoha klimatick\u00fdch teori\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>V prvn\u00edch desetilet\u00edch 20. stolet\u00ed byl pod\u00edl radia\u010dn\u00edho p\u016fsoben\u00ed, kter\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u011b do syst\u00e9mu dorazilo jako teplo, v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v posledn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159iceti letech. To plat\u00ed i s ohledem na to, \u017ee dne\u0161n\u00ed emise CO2 jsou mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed stolet\u00edm.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Mezi lety 1910 a 1945 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed emise stagnovaly na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b jedn\u00e9 gigatun\u011b uhl\u00edku ro\u010dn\u011b, zat\u00edmco do roku 1990 vzrostly na \u0161est gigatun a do roku 2010 na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 deset gigatun. Navzdory tomuto masivn\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu reakce oce\u00e1n\u016f ve form\u011b absorpce tepla, expanze a odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edho vzestupu hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed zdaleka nedos\u00e1hla teoretick\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Toto chov\u00e1n\u00ed zpochyb\u0148uje roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed emise mus\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo a \u00fam\u011brn\u011b v\u00e9st k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu energetick\u00e9mu n\u00e1boji na Zemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Zdroj obr\u00e1zku:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Wu a kol., 2025<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00dadaje ve studii ilustruj\u00ed tento v\u00fdvoj a jsou konzistentn\u00ed nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d n\u011bkolika datov\u00fdmi soubory. Absorpce tepla oce\u00e1nem, zejm\u00e9na v horn\u00edch vrstv\u00e1ch, je v modelech v\u00fdrazn\u011b strm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch datech a v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b z\u016fstala pozoruhodn\u011b tlumen\u00e1. Podobn\u011b tepeln\u00e1 rozta\u017enost oce\u00e1nu, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd faktor zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed, vykazuje men\u0161\u00ed dynamiku, ne\u017e by p\u0159edpov\u00eddaly modelov\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady pro obdob\u00ed masivn\u011b rostouc\u00edch emis\u00ed. Kdy\u017e teoretick\u00e9 p\u016fsoben\u00ed vzroste v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e skute\u010dn\u00e9 m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 zisky, klasick\u00e9 line\u00e1rn\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 projekce nar\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed na syst\u00e9mov\u00fd rozpor. Tento rozpor nelze snadno vysv\u011btlit chybami m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed nebo p\u0159irozen\u00fdmi v\u00fdkyvy, proto\u017ee k rozd\u00edl\u016fm doch\u00e1z\u00ed konzistentn\u011b po n\u011bkolik desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, anal\u00fdza ukazuje, jak slo\u017eit\u00fd a st\u00e1le ne\u00fapln\u011b pochopen\u00fd je vztah mezi emisemi, radia\u010dn\u00edm p\u016fsoben\u00edm a skute\u010dnou spot\u0159ebou energie zemsk\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem. Studie neobhajuje plo\u0161n\u00e9 odm\u00edtnut\u00ed klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f, ale vol\u00e1 po z\u00e1sadn\u00edm p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed energetick\u00fdch rozpo\u010dt\u016f a jejich p\u0159edpoklad\u016f citlivosti. Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Zem\u011b v posledn\u00edch desetilet\u00edch absorbovala m\u00e9n\u011b energie, ne\u017e modely p\u0159edpov\u00eddaly, p\u0159esto\u017ee emise byly vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato anal\u00fdza nav\u00edc nazna\u010duje, \u017ee p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee v\u00edce CO2 v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e vede k vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159eb\u011b energie, jednodu\u0161e nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pravdiv\u00fd. Mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia, kter\u00e1 funguj\u00ed jako zaujat\u00fd tisk, o tom v\u0161ak nebudou informovat, proto\u017ee v\u00fdsledky t\u00e9to studie neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed narativ\u016fm o zl\u00e9m CO2, kter\u00e9 se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed po l\u00e9ta.<\/span><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jin\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00e1 anal\u00fdza zpochyb\u0148uje klimatickou apokalyptickou rovnici, kter\u00e1 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00edce CO2 v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e vede…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[873,839,1561],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93238"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93238\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}