{"id":93026,"date":"2025-11-25T00:26:33","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T23:26:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=93026"},"modified":"2025-11-24T19:50:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T18:50:13","slug":"iranska-energeticka-krize-se-prohlubuje-a-teheran-se-vice-nez-kdy-jindy-sblizil-s-ruskem-a-cinou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/25\/iranska-energeticka-krize-se-prohlubuje-a-teheran-se-vice-nez-kdy-jindy-sblizil-s-ruskem-a-cinou\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 krize se prohlubuje a Teher\u00e1n se v\u00edce ne\u017e kdy jindy sbl\u00ed\u017eil s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Selh\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed teher\u00e1nsk\u00e1 rozvodn\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165 a zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se sucho zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed krizi, kter\u00e1 se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed u\u017e roky. V t\u00e9to souvislosti sankce jen urychlily obrat \u00cdr\u00e1nu k Rusku a \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Zp\u011btn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem by mohla b\u00fdt hlub\u0161\u00ed euroasijsk\u00e1 integrace s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi geopolitick\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n vstupuje do nov\u00e9 a rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed f\u00e1ze sv\u00e9 modern\u00ed historie. Teher\u00e1n, kter\u00fd \u010del\u00ed opakuj\u00edc\u00edm se v\u00fdpadk\u016fm proudu, zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edmu se nedostatku vody a p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 elektrick\u00e9 s\u00edti, nyn\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u00ed jasn\u00fd a odv\u00e1\u017en\u00fd energetick\u00fd posun \u2013 posouv\u00e1 Isl\u00e1mskou republiku bl\u00ed\u017ee k Rusku a \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Toto strategick\u00e9 p\u0159eskupen\u00ed bylo v z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch nedostate\u010dn\u011b informov\u00e1no, p\u0159esto\u017ee jeho d\u016fsledky sahaj\u00ed daleko za hranice dom\u00e1c\u00ed sc\u00e9ny \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r lety Teher\u00e1n uplat\u0148oval svou vlastn\u00ed sebev\u011bdomou \u201eropnou diplomacii\u201c, jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v roce 2021, pos\u00edlal palivo do energeticky st\u00edsn\u011bn\u00e9ho Libanonu a prezentoval se sp\u00ed\u0161e jako region\u00e1ln\u00ed dodavatel ne\u017e jako akt\u00e9r hledaj\u00edc\u00ed pomoc. V t\u00e9 dob\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky paliva dokonce\u00a0<\/span>pomohly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Hizball\u00e1hu \u0159e\u0161it nedostatek energie v Libanonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bci se zm\u011bnily. Persk\u00fd n\u00e1rod dnes \u010del\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed energetick\u00e9 krizi, kter\u00e1 je natolik z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1, \u017ee si vynut\u00ed p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00fd syst\u00e9m a nouzov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed; nemluv\u011b o pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>mazutu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0jako paliva navzdory jeho toxick\u00fdm dopad\u016fm na ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 zdrav\u00ed. Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e1 nouzov\u00e1 situace se zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm je dob\u0159e zdokumentov\u00e1na, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e smog p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k\u00a0<\/span>smrt\u00edc\u00edm environment\u00e1ln\u00edm kriz\u00edm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v hlavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nskou energetickou krizi nav\u00edc nelze ch\u00e1pat odd\u011blen\u011b od zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se vodn\u00ed krize. Prezident Mas\u00fad Peze\u0161kijan varoval, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n bude \u010delit\u00a0<\/span>evakuac\u00edm,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pokud se brzy nezv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eky. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy dokonce uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee vl\u00e1da zva\u017euje\u00a0<\/span>\u00fapln\u00e9 p\u0159em\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemysliteln\u00fd krok, ale p\u0159esto v\u00fdmluvn\u00e9 znamen\u00ed toho, jak zoufal\u00e1 se situace stala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kombinovan\u00fd tlak na vodn\u00ed energii, zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a m\u011bstskou spot\u0159ebu odhaluje struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed zranitelnost, kter\u00e1 se formovala roky. Kritici zmi\u0148uj\u00ed \u0161patn\u00e9 hospoda\u0159en\u00ed, ale krom\u011b toho je pravdou, \u017ee se shoduj\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 tlaky i sankce. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ministerstvo energetiky p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed, \u017ee rozvodn\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165 pot\u0159ebuje masivn\u00ed modernizaci. Dom\u00e1c\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee zem\u011b \u201ese ji\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee vyhnout\u00a0<\/span>energetick\u00e9 reform\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee reformy stoj\u00ed pen\u00edze a pen\u00edze jsou n\u011bco, co maj\u00ed sankce zabr\u00e1nit. Washington ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il sankce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na obchod s energi\u00ed v Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice a zam\u011b\u0159il se na \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 spole\u010dnost\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se otev\u0159en\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed p\u0159eru\u0161it p\u0159\u00edjmy zem\u011b. Za Trumpova prezidentstv\u00ed se tento tlak jen zes\u00edlil. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 hluboce politickou slo\u017eku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e1 reakce byla dosud pragmatick\u00e1 i geopolitick\u00e1: obrac\u00ed se d\u00e1le k Rusku a \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika ve skute\u010dnosti pl\u00e1nuje rozs\u00e1hlou\u00a0<\/span>jadernou expanzi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s rusk\u00fdmi reaktory, kter\u00e9 budou tvo\u0159it p\u00e1te\u0159 jej\u00ed budouc\u00ed kapacity z\u00e1kladn\u00edho zat\u00ed\u017een\u00ed. Jak\u00a0<\/span>poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0John Calabrese (nerezidentn\u00ed seniorn\u00ed pracovn\u00edk Institutu pro St\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdchod) , partnerstv\u00ed s Moskvou a Pekingem by mohlo \u00cdr\u00e1nu pomoci nejen p\u0159ekonat okam\u017eit\u00fd nedostatek, ale tak\u00e9 modernizovat jeho st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed infrastrukturu; rusk\u00e9 reaktory by mohly stabilizovat s\u00ed\u0165, zat\u00edmco \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 investice do sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie by mohly vyu\u017e\u00edt obrovsk\u00fd sol\u00e1rn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee persk\u00fd st\u00e1t prohlubuje vazby s ob\u011bma. Energetick\u00fd obrat Teher\u00e1nu je ve skute\u010dnosti sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho trendu: jednak se vojensk\u00e1 a strategick\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>spolupr\u00e1ce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu s Ruskem neust\u00e1le rozv\u00edj\u00ed. Po takzvan\u00e9 dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lce ob\u011b zem\u011b pouze pos\u00edlily svou\u00a0<\/span>koordinaci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, zejm\u00e9na v pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a sd\u00edlen\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Role Pekingu mezit\u00edm nen\u00ed pouze ekonomick\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1n je nap\u0159\u00edklad otev\u0159en\u00fd zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed pl\u00e1nu spolupr\u00e1ce\u00a0<\/span>s Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agenturou pro atomovou energii (MAAE)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0podporovan\u00e9ho Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou \u2013 co\u017e je neklamn\u00fdm znamen\u00edm diplomatick\u00e9ho sm\u011bru Teher\u00e1nu na v\u00fdchod. \u00cdr\u00e1n tak\u00e9 pl\u00e1nuje do roku 2029 v\u00fdrazn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>region\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b energetick\u00fdch \u00fast\u0159eden<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdvoj nazna\u010duje, \u017ee energie je dnes spojena se suverenitou a p\u0159e\u017eit\u00edm. Teher\u00e1n v\u00ed, \u017ee jeho stabilita z\u00e1vis\u00ed na udr\u017een\u00ed proudu, dostupnosti vody a d\u00fdchatelnosti vzduchu. Vzhledem k tlaku Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00fd je zjevn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159en na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed jeho p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, se p\u0159irozenou volbou st\u00e1v\u00e1 obrat na v\u00fdchod. Je ironi\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm v\u00edce Washington tla\u010d\u00ed na \u00cdr\u00e1n, t\u00edm bl\u00ed\u017ee se Teher\u00e1n p\u0159ibli\u017euje k mocnostem, kter\u00e9 USA pova\u017euj\u00ed za sv\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed rivaly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato zm\u011bna se net\u00fdk\u00e1 jen zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed nal\u00e9hav\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho nedostatku. Jde tak\u00e9 o dlouhodob\u00e9 za\u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu do euroasijsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, kde se Rusko a \u010c\u00edna st\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edmi hr\u00e1\u010di, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se zem\u011b prom\u011bn\u00ed z relativn\u011b izolovan\u00e9ho akt\u00e9ra v region\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd kan\u00e1l; a to se perfektn\u011b hod\u00ed do dlouhodob\u00fdch euroasijsk\u00fdch integra\u010dn\u00edch projekt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed energetick\u00fd profil v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zkreslen\u00fd.\u00a0<\/span>Enerdata<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ukazuje, \u017ee zem\u011b je st\u00e1le siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na zemn\u00edm plynu a neefektivn\u00edch tepeln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1ch. P\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost na plynu \u010din\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n zraniteln\u00fdm b\u011bhem extr\u00e9mn\u00edch let a sucha, kter\u00e1 omezuj\u00ed vodn\u00ed energii. Spalov\u00e1n\u00ed mazutu je mezit\u00edm drastickou reakc\u00ed na nedostatek, zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a\u00a0<\/span>nespokojenost ve\u0159ejnosti<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Z\u00e1pad v\u0161ak nech\u00e1pe jednu d\u016fle\u017eitou v\u011bc: \u00cdr\u00e1n se pasivn\u011b nehrout\u00ed pod tlakem, ale d\u00e1le se m\u011bn\u00ed; a jeho obrat se zrychluje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 \u010dasto vykresluj\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nskou krizi jako p\u0159edehru k vnit\u0159n\u00edmu kolapsu, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee odr\u00e1\u017eet ur\u010ditou m\u00edru zbo\u017en\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed. P\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed interpretace je, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n se znovu zarovn\u00e1v\u00e1 v r\u00e1mci \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch posun\u016f. Vztahy s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou nikdy nebyly zcela r\u016f\u017eov\u00e9, ob\u010das se vyzna\u010dovaly ned\u016fv\u011brou a nenapln\u011bn\u00fdmi o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edmi. A\u0165 je to jakkoli, Moskva a Peking nyn\u00ed Teher\u00e1nu nab\u00edzej\u00ed to, co Z\u00e1pad pop\u00edr\u00e1: technologie, investice a skute\u010dn\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 uzn\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd krok na v\u00fdchod je proto m\u00e9n\u011b zoufal\u00fd ne\u017e strategick\u00e1 rekalibrace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za Trumpovy vl\u00e1dy USA zaujaly konfronta\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postoj, ale samotn\u00fd tlak jen z\u0159\u00eddka kdy zm\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1rody a \u010dasto vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 opa\u010dn\u00fd efekt. Rostouc\u00ed integrace Teher\u00e1nu s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou je p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem let sankc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 tla\u010dily \u00cdr\u00e1n k alternativn\u00edm mocensk\u00fdm centr\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 krize je skute\u010dn\u00e1 a v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1, ale je tak\u00e9 katalyz\u00e1torem. Obracen\u00ed se k Rusku a \u010c\u00edn\u011b nen\u00ed jen v\u00fdhodn\u00e9; odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nutnost a p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost. \u00cdr\u00e1n pot\u0159ebuje partnery, kte\u0159\u00ed mohou roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it jeho jadernou kapacitu, podpo\u0159it rozvoj sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie, stabilizovat jeho rozvodnou s\u00ed\u0165 a pomoci s \u0159\u00edzen\u00edm propojen\u00ed vodn\u00ed energie. V tomto smyslu by krize mohla zm\u011bnit nejen dom\u00e1c\u00ed trajektorii \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ale i \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil v cel\u00e9m regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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Selh\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed teher\u00e1nsk\u00e1 rozvodn\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165 a zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se sucho zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed krizi, kter\u00e1 se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed u\u017e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93027,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,285,38,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93026"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93026\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}