{"id":92733,"date":"2025-11-21T06:53:27","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T05:53:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=92733"},"modified":"2025-11-21T06:53:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T05:53:27","slug":"uriel-araujo-aukus-plus-jihokorejska-jaderna-ponorka-prepisuje-asijskou-geopolitiku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/21\/uriel-araujo-aukus-plus-jihokorejska-jaderna-ponorka-prepisuje-asijskou-geopolitiku\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: AUKUS-plus? Jihokorejsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 ponorka p\u0159episuje asijskou geopolitiku"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dlouhodob\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje o jadern\u00e9 ponorky se nyn\u00ed shoduje s m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se strategi\u00ed Washingtonu v oblasti aliance. Analytici vid\u00ed vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed syst\u00e9m AUKUS+, zat\u00edmco Soul zvy\u0161uje v\u00fddaje a region\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti p\u0159ehodnocuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 postoje. Indon\u00e9sie, ASEAN a Indie naopak situaci komplikuj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee se br\u00e1n\u00ed rigidn\u00ed blokov\u00e9 politice.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Washington, Canberra, Lond\u00fdn a nyn\u00ed i Soul prohlubuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 vazby, ot\u00e1zka, kter\u00e1 se kdysi zd\u00e1la hypotetick\u00e1, je n\u00e1hle nal\u00e9hav\u00e1: stane se Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea dal\u0161\u00edm pil\u00ed\u0159em architektury AUKUS-plus? Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 vlna ozn\u00e1men\u00ed \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b Trumpova\u00a0<\/span>schv\u00e1len\u00ed r\u00e1mce ve stylu korejsk\u00e9 architektury AUKUS<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, spole\u010dn\u00fdch diskus\u00ed o\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdstavb\u011b jadern\u00fdch ponorek<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a masivn\u00edch nov\u00fdch z\u00e1vazk\u016f Soulu\u00a0<\/span>k v\u00fddaj\u016fm na obranu \u2013<\/span><\/a>\u00a0to v\u0161e m\u00e1 dopad na strategickou mapu Indo-Pacifiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici komentuj\u00ed, \u017ee jihokorejsk\u00e9 30let\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o jadern\u00e9 ponorky se kone\u010dn\u011b \u201evypl\u00e1c\u00ed\u201c. Program je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti realizov\u00e1n a \u0159\u00edzen USA, co\u017e posiluje bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed vz\u00e1jemnou z\u00e1vislost zp\u016fsoby, kter\u00e9 jdou daleko za hranice tradi\u010dn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed aliance, jak\u00a0<\/span>poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Seong-Hyon Lee (v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd pracovn\u00edk v Harvard University Asia Centre) .<\/span><\/p>\n

Soul se mezit\u00edm chyst\u00e1 utratit\u00a0<\/span>33 miliard dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na podporu americk\u00fdch sil a z\u00e1rove\u0148 nakoupit americk\u00e9 zbran\u011b v hodnot\u011b 25 miliard dolar\u016f, a\u010dkoli neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed jasnost ohledn\u011b toho, kde budou jadern\u00e9 ponorky montov\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento krok zat\u00edm vyvolal v\u00edce ot\u00e1zek ne\u017e odpov\u011bd\u00ed. Sam Roggeveen (programov\u00fd \u0159editel Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho programu Lowyho institutu) nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0<\/span>ozna\u010dil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0celou iniciativu s ponorkami za \u201ez\u00e1hadu\u201c, kter\u00e1 vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zky, zda Trump sl\u00edbil v\u00edce, ne\u017e je Washington ochoten splnit. \u010casov\u00fd harmonogram, ochrann\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 kapacity obklopuje dostatek nejasnost\u00ed, \u017ee si analytici kladou ot\u00e1zku, zda samotn\u00fd AUKUS nen\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ti\u0161e \u201eoutsourcov\u00e1n\u201c do Soulu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova r\u00e9torika \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c paradoxn\u011b vede k prohlubuj\u00edc\u00ed se z\u00e1vislosti na spojenc\u00edch. Jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ve sv\u00e9 anal\u00fdze AUKUS a militarizace Austr\u00e1lie, Washington se posouv\u00e1 od p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho no\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee k jej\u00edmu p\u0159esouv\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 outsourcingu v\u00fdroby, logistiky a dokonce i odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee podobn\u00e1 dynamika su\u017eovala i Kvadratovou zemi. Jej\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e1 stagnace, jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b d\u016fsledkem Trumpov\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span>neo-monroeistick\u00fdch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0instinkt\u016f: chce, aby partne\u0159i platili v\u00edce, v\u00edce se spojovali a v\u00edce dod\u00e1vali.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sta\u010d\u00ed \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea do tohoto modelu zapad\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u011b dob\u0159e. Na rozd\u00edl od Austr\u00e1lie \u2013 jej\u00ed\u017e z\u00e1vazky v\u016f\u010di AUKUS ji\u017e zat\u011b\u017euj\u00ed jej\u00ed lod\u011bnice a rozpo\u010det \u2013 m\u00e1 Soul\u00a0<\/span>silnou pr\u016fmyslovou z\u00e1kladnu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0schopnou spole\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje jadern\u00fdch ponorek. I japonsk\u00e9 lod\u011bnice maj\u00ed potenci\u00e1l a\u00a0<\/span>debaty<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v Tokiu nyn\u00ed odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed rostouc\u00ed ochotu v\u00edce se sladit s r\u00e1mci ve stylu AUKUS. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee ameri\u010dt\u00ed z\u00e1konod\u00e1rci zva\u017euj\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e\u00a0<\/span>roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v\u00fdroby ponorek do severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, jak\u00e9koli takov\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed s sebou nese rizika. \u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed a japon\u0161t\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed pl\u00e1nova\u010di ji\u017e varovali, \u017ee vstup Soulu do klubu jadern\u00fdch ponorek by mohl\u00a0<\/span>urychlit jejich vlastn\u00ed programy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Stup\u0148uj\u00ed se i obavy z \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v regionu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed analytici popisuj\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci mezi USA a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreou jako jasn\u00fd faktor\u00a0<\/span>oslabuj\u00edc\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Smlouvu o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Seong-Hyon Leeho, jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea ji\u017e nejen \u201ekupuje\u201c americkou bezpe\u010dnost; buduje syst\u00e9m strategick\u00e9 vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti, kter\u00fd oba st\u00e1ty spojuje pevn\u011bji ne\u017e kdy d\u0159\u00edve. Korejsk\u00e1 verze AUKUS tak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ve skute\u010dnosti kone\u010dn\u00fdm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00edm toho, co USA dnes od sv\u00fdch spojenc\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed: hlub\u0161\u00ed integraci s americk\u00fdmi obrann\u00fdmi dodavatelsk\u00fdmi \u0159et\u011bzci, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy americk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f a slad\u011bn\u00ed s indicko-pacifick\u00fdmi odstra\u0161ovac\u00edmi strategiemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Washington pokra\u010duje, Soul \u010del\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>velk\u00fdm fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm omezen\u00edm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Dom\u00e1c\u00ed tlaky rostou a jeho z\u00e1vazek zv\u00fd\u0161it v\u00fddaje na obranu na 3,5 % HDP se st\u0159et\u00e1v\u00e1 s nap\u00edn\u00e1n\u00edm se rozpo\u010dt\u016f a demografick\u00fdmi omezen\u00edmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc by tyto dohody o ponork\u00e1ch mohly Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu vystavit nov\u00fdm mo\u017enostem eskalace. Japonsk\u00e9 debaty o po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vlastn\u00edch jadern\u00fdch ponorek \u2013 kdysi tabu \u2013 se\u00a0<\/span>zintenziv\u0148uj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Severn\u00ed Korea, kter\u00e1 je ji\u017e tak citliv\u00e1 na americkou vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci s Jihem, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zareaguje dal\u0161\u00edmi raketov\u00fdmi testy. A diplomatick\u00e9 kan\u00e1ly v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie, kter\u00e9 jsou ji\u017e tak dost k\u0159ehk\u00e9, by mohly utrp\u011bt dal\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje zde v\u0161ak i \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed, m\u00e1lo informovan\u00fd \u00fahel pohledu, kter\u00fd nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na jasnou linii mezi Severem a Jihem: militarizace severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1 mnohostrannou politiku. Jak jsem ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o Indon\u00e9sii a Severn\u00ed Koreji, st\u00e1ty ASEAN \u2013 zejm\u00e9na Indon\u00e9sie \u2013 d\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159ednost autonomii p\u0159ed blokovou politikou. Udr\u017euj\u00ed komunika\u010dn\u00ed linky otev\u0159en\u00e9 i s Pchjongjangem, up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed suverenitu a odol\u00e1vaj\u00ed tlak\u016fm na nulovou strategii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je paradox Indicko-pacifick\u00e9 oblasti: zat\u00edmco Washington podporuje rigidn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed bloky, region\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti m\u00edsto toho zkoumaj\u00ed flexibiln\u00ed koalice. Tolik k my\u0161lence jednotn\u00e9 proti\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 fronty. Indie nap\u0159\u00edklad balancuje mezi eurasijsk\u00fdmi a tichomo\u0159sk\u00fdmi vazbami; ASEAN s\u00e1z\u00ed na m\u011bkkou diplomacii; a Indon\u00e9sie dokonce zva\u017euje n\u00edzkorizikovou spolupr\u00e1ci se Severn\u00ed Koreou.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto smyslu m\u016f\u017ee vznik \u201eAUKUS+\u201c pos\u00edlit bloky na severu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 podpo\u0159it mnohostrann\u00e9 sjednocen\u00ed na jihu. Indo-pacifick\u00fd region se tak nest\u00e1v\u00e1 jedin\u00fdm d\u011bji\u0161t\u011bm, ale mozaikou p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch se mocensk\u00fdch center.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se s jadern\u00fdmi transfery do nejadern\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edmi se aliancemi ponorek, omezen\u00edmi kapacity lod\u011bnic a rostouc\u00edmi obavami ohledn\u011b NPT prodlu\u017euje jadern\u00fd st\u00edn indicko-pacifick\u00e9 oblasti. Kritici tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee AUKUS ji\u017e nyn\u00ed posouv\u00e1 hranice Smlouvy o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na hranici jej\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed a podporuje tak napodobov\u00e1n\u00ed. Vstup Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje do AUKUS+ m\u016f\u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it p\u016fsobnost Washingtonu a d\u00e1t mu v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed strategickou hloubku, ale riskuje rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1vod\u016f ve zbrojen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Trump\u016fv p\u0159\u00edstup je natolik nevyzpytateln\u00fd, \u017ee by se cel\u00e1 konfigurace mohla z\u00edtra znovu zm\u011bnit, a to by mohl b\u00fdt logick\u00fd argument. \u0160ir\u0161\u00ed trend v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nezam\u011bniteln\u00fd, pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na vzorce: p\u0159esouv\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee, outsourcing alianc\u00ed, obavy z \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a u\u017e\u0161\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost USA a spojenc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dlouhodob\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje o jadern\u00e9 ponorky se nyn\u00ed shoduje s m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se strategi\u00ed Washingtonu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92734,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1222,3756,1189],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92733"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92733\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}