{"id":92446,"date":"2025-11-18T00:19:21","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T23:19:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=92446"},"modified":"2025-11-17T16:07:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T15:07:35","slug":"zbynek-fiala-klima-v-amoku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/18\/zbynek-fiala-klima-v-amoku\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Klima v amoku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Alarmist\u00e9 na zte\u010di za na\u0161e pen\u00edze? Atlantick\u00fd oce\u00e1nsk\u00fd proud, kter\u00fd p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vyt\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed pro v\u00fdchodn\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed USA a severn\u00ed polovinu Evropy, pr\u00fd hl\u00e1s\u00ed poruchy, kter\u00e9 ho mohou vypnout. Kdy? Do konce stolet\u00ed! A m\u00e1te dobu ledovou!!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed nic p\u011bkn\u00e9ho, co n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1, pokud se nepolep\u0161\u00edme (ale mo\u017en\u00e1 i potom). Na severn\u00ed polokouli, kam bohu\u017eel taky pat\u0159\u00edme, m\u016f\u017ee b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika des\u00edtek let, tedy je\u0161t\u011b za \u017eivota t\u011bch mlad\u0161\u00edch, doj\u00edt k\u00a0poklesu pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch teplot a\u017e o 30 stup\u0148\u016f Celsia! Vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 to ze studie v\u011bdc\u016f z\u00a0\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 akademie v\u011bd a Oce\u00e1nografick\u00e9ho institutu Kalifornsk\u00e9 univerzity, kter\u00e9 se op\u00edr\u00e1 o zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u0159edn\u011b hlubinn\u00fdch vod (mezi jedn\u00edm a t\u0159emi kilometry) v rovn\u00edkov\u00e9m Atlantiku. Vznik\u00e1 tak dal\u0161\u00ed bari\u00e9ra, na kter\u00e9 uv\u00e1zne Golfsk\u00fd proud, jak vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 ze studie, kterou publikovali v\u00a0presti\u017en\u00edm v\u011bdeck\u00e9m \u017eurn\u00e1le Nature.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-025-02793-1<\/a><\/p>\n

Golfsk\u00fd proud je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed syst\u00e9mu Atlantick\u00e9 meridion\u00e1ln\u00ed cirkulace s\u00a0anglickou zkratkou AMOC. To instinktivn\u011b sv\u00e1d\u00ed k\u00a0p\u0159edstav\u011b, \u017ee tu zase n\u011bkdo zbyte\u010dn\u011b p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u00ed a d\u011bs\u00ed lidstvo klimatick\u00fdmi alarmisty v\u00a0amoku.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1s to ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00a0klidu, nejsme zv\u011bdav\u00ed na n\u011bjak\u00e9 nov\u00e9 gr\u00fdnd\u00fdlov\u00e9 finty. Ale islandsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da to ozna\u010dila za hroz\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed katastrofu a p\u0159ijala krizov\u00fd re\u017eim, kter\u00fd j\u00ed uvol\u0148uje ruce pro pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 z\u00e1sahy.<\/p>\n

Podez\u0159el\u00e9 je, \u017ee zpr\u00e1va o hroz\u00edc\u00ed katastrof\u011b vybuchla zrovna v\u00a0dob\u011b Konference OSN o zm\u011bn\u011b klimatu (COP30). Ta prob\u00edh\u00e1 u\u017e po t\u0159ic\u00e1t\u00e9, tentokr\u00e1t v\u00a0rovn\u00edkov\u00e9m Bel\u00e9mu v\u00a0Braz\u00edlii, a znovu a znovu burcuje vl\u00e1dy i ve\u0159ejnost k\u00a0rozhodn\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm (jin\u00fd v\u00fdraz pro vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz) proti produkci sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f.<\/p>\n

Jin\u00e1 skupina v\u011bdc\u016f, kter\u00e1 v\u00a0tom Bel\u00e9mu moc nebude, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee doby ledov\u00e9, tedy jejich n\u00e1stupy i \u00fastupy jsou p\u0159irozenou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, se kterou \u010dlov\u011bk nic neud\u011bl\u00e1. A \u017ee Zem\u011b u\u017e milion let opakovan\u011b p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed z tepl\u00fdch \u201einterglaci\u00e1l\u016f\u201c, jak\u00fd za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me nyn\u00ed, do drsn\u00fdch studen\u00fdch podm\u00ednek.<\/p>\n

Poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee n\u00e1stup doby ledov\u00e9 souvis\u00ed se zm\u011bnami sklonu rota\u010dn\u00ed osy Zem\u011b (cyklus 41 000 let), zm\u011bnami orientace eliptick\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy Zem\u011b kolem Slunce, naz\u00fdvan\u00fdmi \u201eprecese rovnodennosti\u201c (23 000 let), a se zm\u011bnami tvaru (v\u00edce kulat\u00e9ho nebo m\u00e9n\u011b kulat\u00e9ho) eliptick\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy (100 000 let). Uvedenou teorii, \u017ee n\u00e1stup a \u00fastup ledov\u00fdch dob je zp\u016fsobov\u00e1n zm\u011bnami zemsk\u00e9ho orbitu, poprv\u00e9 vyslovil James Croll v 19. stolet\u00ed a podrobn\u011bji ji rozvinul Milutin Milankovitch v roce 1938.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.whoi.edu\/ocean-learning-hub\/ocean-topics\/climate-weather\/abrupt-climate-change\/are-we-on-the-brink-of-a-new-little-ice-age\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Ale o tom nen\u00ed spor. Probl\u00e9m je v\u00a0tom, \u017ee od n\u00e1stupu pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 revoluce do klimatu st\u00e1le intenz\u00edvn\u011bji zasahuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 lid\u00e9, tak\u017ee rostouc\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed slune\u010dn\u00ed energie je zadr\u017eov\u00e1no pod pokli\u010dkou sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f. Proto zkratka \u201eoteplov\u00e1n\u00ed klimatu\u201c.<\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti nen\u00ed tak prost\u00e9, co to kde ud\u011bl\u00e1. Bude v\u00a0tom na\u0161em sklen\u00edku horko, nebo si m\u00e1me p\u0159ipravit tepl\u00e9 pr\u00e1dlo? Pr\u00fd oboj\u00ed. Obecn\u011b hroz\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, ale na severu Evropy se projev\u00ed jako n\u00e1vrat doby ledov\u00e9. Vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vaj\u00ed se procesy, kter\u00e9 mohou zni\u010dit na\u0161e m\u00edrn\u00e9 klima a vr\u00e1tit je tam, kam geograficky pat\u0159\u00ed. S\u00a0na\u0161\u00ed 50. rovnob\u011b\u017ekou jsme toti\u017e na \u00farovni Kanady.<\/p>\n

Riziko zamrznut\u00ed z\u00a0oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed je nepochybn\u00fdm d\u016fvodem k\u00a0\u017eert\u016fm, zejm\u00e9na pro ty, kdo nesleduj\u00ed nudn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti jako je pokles koncentrace soli v\u00a0povrchov\u00e9 mo\u0159sk\u00e9 vod\u011b u Islandu a ochabuj\u00edc\u00ed proud\u011bn\u00ed tepl\u00fdch vod nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Atlantikem. Posledn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st toho tepl\u00e9ho proudu p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0Mexick\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e9mu z\u00e1livu \u201egolf\u201c, proto je konec glob\u00e1ln\u00edho vyt\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed planety mo\u0159skou cestou (termohalinn\u00ed syst\u00e9m) naz\u00fdv\u00e1n Golfsk\u00fd proud.<\/p>\n

Ono \u201ehalinn\u00ed\u201c v ozna\u010den\u00ed zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu znamen\u00e1 v\u00fdznamnou \u00fa\u010dast halogenid\u016f, v\u00a0dan\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b sod\u00edku ve slan\u00e9 mo\u0159sk\u00e9 vod\u011b. Nejde jen o to, \u017ee tepl\u00e1 voda k\u00a0n\u00e1m proud\u00ed po povrchu oce\u00e1nu, a studen\u00e1 se pak vrac\u00ed spodem, v\u00a0oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdch st\u0159edn\u00edch hlubin\u00e1ch. Aby se v\u0161ak na obr\u00e1tce u Islandu dostala do t\u00e9 hloubky a pokra\u010dovala v\u00a0ob\u011bhu, mus\u00ed b\u00fdt hodn\u011b slan\u00e1, tedy t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee odt\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed gr\u00f3nsk\u00e9ho ledovce ji zna\u010dn\u011b na\u0159e\u010fuje. To ji odleh\u010duje, proto pak obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bji kles\u00e1. U\u017e te\u010f n\u00e1m Golfsk\u00fd proud zna\u010dn\u011b zesl\u00e1bl, ale jak se odt\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ledu zrychluje (to je to oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed), bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edme se k\u00a0bodu zvratu, po kter\u00e9m u\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd Golfsk\u00fd proud nebude.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/11\/12\/science\/gulf-stream-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn\/<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/sciencetech\/article-15283265\/Gulf-Stream-fingerprint-ocean-circulation-weaken.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Na za\u010d\u00e1tku sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho interglaci\u00e1lu u\u017e tady n\u011bco takov\u00e9ho bylo a ochladilo Zemi na dal\u0161\u00edch n\u011bkolik tis\u00edc let. Proto je takov\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi za\u010d\u00e1tkem interglaci\u00e1lu p\u0159ed 12 tis\u00edci lety a n\u00e1stupem neolitick\u00e9 revoluce, vedouc\u00ed ke vzniku civilizac\u00ed, kter\u00fd p\u0159i\u0161el a\u017e p\u0159ed 8 tis\u00edci lety. T\u011bch t\u0159i \u2013 \u010dty\u0159i tis\u00edce let p\u0159edt\u00edm bylo pro pozvednut\u00ed lidstva p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 kru\u0161n\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed studie \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch a americk\u00fdch v\u011bdc\u016f (ale v\u0161echno jsou jenom \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 jm\u00e9na) ukazuje, \u017ee za ochabov\u00e1n\u00ed Golfsk\u00e9ho proudu mohou tak\u00e9 anom\u00e1lie v\u00a0teplot ve st\u0159edn\u011b hlubok\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch rovn\u00edkov\u00e9ho Atlantiku. To jsou ty \u201etepeln\u00e9 bari\u00e9ry\u201c na zp\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed cest\u011b od Islandu p\u0159es Karibik, kdy\u017e Golfsk\u00fd proud jako sou\u010d\u00e1st AMOC m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do nov\u00e9 f\u00e1ze tropick\u00e9ho oh\u0159evu. Voda se oh\u0159eje, vystoup\u00ed, a m\u00e1te po proudu. AMOC sl\u00e1bne.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sustainability\/cop\/cop30-gathers-whats-latest-climate-science-2025-11-09\/<\/a><\/p>\n

My klidn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed se soust\u0159e\u010fujeme na to, \u017ee uveden\u00fd proces \u00fadajn\u011b za\u010dal u\u017e na konci minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed, tak\u017ee nic nov\u00e9ho. Jen\u017ee ty konce! Na konci tohoto stolet\u00ed u\u017e m\u016f\u017ee teplota na evropsk\u00e9m i americk\u00e9m severu klesnout snadno o 30 stup\u0148\u016f. Nelze se divit, \u017ee islandsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da mluv\u00ed o n\u00e1rodn\u00edm ohro\u017een\u00ed a nep\u0159ekvapilo by, kdyby se p\u0159idaly dal\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Popravd\u011b, meteorologov\u00e9 varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed vp\u00e1dy arktick\u00e9ho vzduchu u\u017e letos, proto\u017ee se rozpad\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed klimatick\u00fd syst\u00e9m, tentokr\u00e1t tryskov\u00e9 proudy ve stratosf\u00e9\u0159e. Jejich krou\u017een\u00ed uzav\u00edralo studen\u00fd arktick\u00fd vzduch tam, kam pat\u0159\u00ed. V\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech v\u0161ak tyto atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 proudy naru\u0161ilo oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed Arktidy, kter\u00e9 se rozb\u00edh\u00e1 mimochodem n\u00e1sobn\u011b rychleji, ne\u017e je glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br, proto\u017ee pod taj\u00edc\u00edm ledem je tmav\u0161\u00ed, tepeln\u011b j\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed voda.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 z\u00a0tohoto d\u016fvodu je \u201eglob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c n\u011bkdy na tepl\u00e9 spodky a jindy na klimo\u0161ku naplno. Kdy\u017e se studen\u00fd vzduch vyval\u00ed k\u00a0n\u00e1m, jako pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f, odjinud na jihu vytla\u010duje teplej\u0161\u00ed vzduch do severn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch poloh. Takov\u00fd prota\u017een\u00fd tryskov\u00fd proud u\u017e v\u00a0minul\u00fdch letech p\u0159inesl sn\u00edh do Severn\u00ed Afriky a prudk\u00e1 vedra do\u00a0Gr\u00f3nska.<\/p>\n

Prost\u011b jsme to klima dokonale rozhasili, zblbli, dohnali a\u017e k \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed. Je to krut\u00e9, ale pozor, na velk\u00fdch prach\u00e1ch taky n\u011bco je. Amok je i na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alarmist\u00e9 na zte\u010di za na\u0161e pen\u00edze? Atlantick\u00fd oce\u00e1nsk\u00fd proud, kter\u00fd p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vyt\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed pro v\u00fdchodn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":65370,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[3434,1042,873],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92446"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92446\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}