{"id":92210,"date":"2025-11-14T04:22:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T03:22:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=92210"},"modified":"2025-11-14T04:22:49","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T03:22:49","slug":"jak-zacit-valku-s-ruskem-britsky-think-tank-ma-napady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/14\/jak-zacit-valku-s-ruskem-britsky-think-tank-ma-napady\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak za\u010d\u00edt v\u00e1lku s Ruskem \u2013 britsk\u00fd think tank m\u00e1 n\u00e1pady"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Auto\u0159i z RUSI, think tanku britsk\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany, ob\u010das p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed s cenn\u00fdmi v\u00fdzkumy. V\u011bt\u0161inou se v\u0161ak sna\u017e\u00ed prosazovat nesmysln\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed. Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek Jacka Waitlinga v \u010dasopise Foreign Affairs pat\u0159\u00ed k druh\u00e9 kategorii.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed zima na Ukrajin\u011b<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 Foreign Affairs, 11. listopadu 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

Donbas je v ohro\u017een\u00ed, Evropa mus\u00ed na Rusko vyvinout tlak<\/em><\/p>\n

Des\u00edtky p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch l\u017e\u00ed, nepravdiv\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed a blud\u016f v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku nech\u00e1m k posm\u011bchu ostatn\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed tez\u00ed Waitlinga je, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed (ekonomick\u00fd) tlak na Rusko ho n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem donut\u00ed k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed bez \u00fastupk\u016f ze strany Ukrajiny. Jeho n\u00e1vrhy, jak toho dos\u00e1hnout, v\u0161ak v\u0161echny sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed k tomu, aby Evropu vt\u00e1hly do je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u011bj\u0161\u00edho boje s Ruskem.<\/p>\n

Na podporu ukrajinsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b proti rusk\u00e9mu ropn\u00e9mu pr\u016fmyslu by Evropan\u00e9 m\u011bli\u00a0uzav\u0159\u00edt D\u00e1nsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv<\/b>:<\/p>\n

Pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed partnery Ukrajiny je ot\u00e1zkou, zda jsou p\u0159ipraveni podpo\u0159it ukrajinskou kampa\u0148 proti rusk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e srovnateln\u00fdm re\u00e1ln\u00fdm, nikoli pouze performativn\u00edm tlakem na ruskou ekonomiku. To p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm znamen\u00e1 zam\u011b\u0159it se na ruskou st\u00ednovou flotilu: stovky vetch\u00fdch tanker\u016f, pluj\u00edc\u00edch pod vlajkami v\u00fdhodn\u00fdmi pro jejich provozovatele, \u010dasto bez poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nebo vy\u0161kolen\u00e9 pos\u00e1dky, kter\u00e9 p\u0159epravuj\u00ed ropu do Indie a \u010c\u00edny. To bude vy\u017eadovat zastaven\u00ed 80 % rusk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy po mo\u0159i, kter\u00fd proch\u00e1z\u00ed D\u00e1nsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, a hrozbu sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed proti p\u0159\u00edstav\u016fm, kde se lod\u011b st\u00ednov\u00e9 flotily vykl\u00e1daj\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b D\u00e1nska \u2013 uvedly jako pr\u00e1vn\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eku pro p\u0159ijet\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed Koda\u0148skou smlouvu z roku 1857, mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dohodu, kter\u00e1 stanovila bezceln\u00ed tranzit komer\u010dn\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy d\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi vodami. Jedn\u00e1 se v\u0161ak sp\u00ed\u0161e o v\u00fdmluvu ne\u017e o skute\u010dnou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eku. Zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 dnes maj\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, s v\u00fdjimkou Ruska, by se mohly dohodnout na nov\u00e9 smlouv\u011b, kter\u00e1 by vy\u017eadovala, aby lod\u011b spl\u0148ovaly ur\u010dit\u00e9 normy poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a certifikace, aby mohly plout po Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad z d\u016fvodu ochrany \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed plavidla st\u00ednov\u00e9 flotily tyto po\u017eadavky nespl\u0148uj\u00ed, takov\u00e1 smlouva by jim odep\u0159ela vstup do pr\u016fliv\u016f. To by neporu\u0161ilo z\u00e1sadu bezceln\u00edho tranzitu komer\u010dn\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy d\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi vodami.<\/em><\/p>\n

Hezk\u00fd n\u00e1pad. Ale jak by se takov\u00fd nesmysl dal prosadit?<\/p>\n

Ani Rusko, ani \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed \u010dlenem NATO, by takovou novou smlouvu neuznala. Lod\u011b, kter\u00e9 nejsou poji\u0161t\u011bny v Lond\u00fdn\u011b, tj. \u201est\u00ednov\u00e1 flotila\u201c, by pokra\u010dovaly v plavb\u011b, ale doprov\u00e1zely by je rusk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly. Kter\u00e1 zem\u011b bude ochotna potopit ruskou fregatu, kter\u00e1 chr\u00e1n\u00ed konvoj \u201est\u00ednov\u00fdch lod\u00ed\u201c p\u0159ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi z\u00e1sahy? Na jak\u00e9m pr\u00e1vn\u00edm z\u00e1klad\u011b?<\/p>\n

Ukrajina nem\u00e1 probl\u00e9m s n\u00e1borem, tvrd\u00ed Waitling, ale mus\u00ed dostat\u00a0lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdcvik v zemi od sil NATO<\/b>:<\/p>\n

O situaci Ukrajiny v oblasti lidsk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f panuje v\u0161eobecn\u00e1 nejistota. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b m\u00e1 Ukrajina dostatek lid\u00ed, aby mohla pokra\u010dovat v boji. Na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni neexistuje probl\u00e9m s lidsk\u00fdmi zdroji. Po\u010det bojeschopn\u00fdch p\u011b\u0161\u00e1k\u016f v ozbrojen\u00fdch sil\u00e1ch Ukrajiny v\u0161ak ji\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dva roky kles\u00e1. V ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku dos\u00e1hne \u00farovn\u011b, kter\u00e1 znemo\u017en\u00ed udr\u017eet frontu, pokud Kyjev nezm\u011bn\u00ed sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edstup k vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed sil.<\/em><\/p>\n

V\u00fdzva nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 tolik v tom, aby se lid\u00e9 brali p\u0159\u00edmo z ulice, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e ve zlep\u0161en\u00ed kvality a kapacity v\u00fdcviku a integrace ukrajinsk\u00e9 p\u011bchoty do bojov\u00fdch brig\u00e1d. V ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b dnes slou\u017e\u00ed v\u00edce lid\u00ed ne\u017e kdykoli b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky, ale arm\u00e1da nen\u00ed schopna vycvi\u010dit sv\u016fj person\u00e1l k pln\u011bn\u00ed bojov\u00fdch funkc\u00ed na front\u011b. K vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed tohoto rostouc\u00edho probl\u00e9mu bude muset nov\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dn\u00ed sbor zav\u00e9st rotaci brig\u00e1d a umo\u017enit lep\u0161\u00edm jednotk\u00e1m pom\u00e1hat s v\u00fdcvikem m\u00e9n\u011b schopn\u00fdch.<\/em><\/p>\n

S v\u00edce ne\u017e 160 000 dezertacemi\u00a0jen v tomto roce<\/a>\u00a0na Ukrajin\u011b lze pochybovat, \u017ee lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdcvik by n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem vedl k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu po\u010dtu ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f na front\u011b.<\/p>\n

Toto je oblast, ve kter\u00e9 mohou mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed partne\u0159i Ukrajiny v\u00fdznamn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bt.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by tak\u00e9 mohly poskytovat vojensk\u00fd v\u00fdcvik v dan\u00e9 zemi. T\u00edm, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly budou moci cvi\u010dit na sv\u00e9m vybaven\u00ed, v prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kde budou evrop\u0161t\u00ed instrukto\u0159i podporov\u00e1ni ukrajinsk\u00fdmi veliteli, kte\u0159\u00ed tyto voj\u00e1ky nakonec zam\u011bstn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, by takov\u00fd krok p\u0159\u00edmo \u0159e\u0161il probl\u00e9my Ukrajiny s vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00edm sil. Je pravda, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edtomnost evropsk\u00fdch instruktor\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b by byla l\u00e1kav\u00fdm c\u00edlem pro Rusko. Rusko v\u0161ak m\u011blo p\u0159i \u00fato\u010den\u00ed na ukrajinsk\u00e9 instruktory omezen\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch, tak\u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o jasn\u011b zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e9 riziko, kter\u00e9 by mohlo hr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli p\u0159i budov\u00e1n\u00ed jednotek, kter\u00e9 Ukrajina pot\u0159ebuje k udr\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 linie.<\/em><\/p>\n

Co mohou evrop\u0161t\u00ed instrukto\u0159i NATO, kte\u0159\u00ed nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti s v\u00e1lkou, nau\u010dit ukrajinsk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky, kte\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i roky bojuj\u00ed v konfliktu vysok\u00e9 intenzity? Kdo bude ochoten vyslat tyto instruktory na Ukrajinu? Jak\u00fd je pl\u00e1n pot\u00e9, co des\u00edtky z nich zem\u0159ou v d\u016fsledku nevyhnuteln\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho raketov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku, kter\u00fd bude n\u00e1sledovat po jejich nasazen\u00ed?<\/p>\n

Waitling nechce na Ukrajinu poslat pouze z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201einstruktory\u201c, ale tak\u00e9 jejich leteck\u00e9 s\u00edly:<\/p>\n

Polsko a Rumunsko by mohly po\u017e\u00e1dat Ukrajinu o povolen\u00ed zas\u00e1hnout proti leteck\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m nad ukrajinsk\u00fdm vzdu\u0161n\u00fdm prostorem, kter\u00e9 se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k hranic\u00edm NATO, stejn\u011b jako Izrael zachytil mnoho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dron\u016f Shahed-136 v jord\u00e1nsk\u00e9m vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru. Bez vytvo\u0159en\u00ed povinnosti pro Polsko, Rumunsko a dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b zas\u00e1hnout proti c\u00edl\u016fm nad Ukrajinou by takov\u00e9 povolen\u00ed vytvo\u0159ilo podm\u00ednky pro odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed konflikt\u016f mezi evropsk\u00fdmi letadly a ukrajinskou protivzdu\u0161nou obranou. T\u00edmto zp\u016fsobem by evropsk\u00e1 koalice mohla v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 dob\u011b nasadit leteckou s\u00edlu na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nasadit leteckou s\u00edlu na Ukrajin\u011b k \u010demu p\u0159esn\u011b? Aby sest\u0159elila drony v hodnot\u011b 50 000 dolar\u016f raketami v hodnot\u011b 2 000 000 dolar\u016f? Nebo aby bombardovala rusk\u00e9 pozice? \u010clov\u011bk si klade ot\u00e1zku, kolik minut by pilot, kter\u00fd by se o to pokusil, p\u0159e\u017eil.<\/p>\n

V\u0161echna t\u0159i opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 Waitling p\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1, uzav\u0159en\u00ed D\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu pro ruskou ropu, zaveden\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch instruktor\u016f na Ukrajinu a nasazen\u00ed leteck\u00e9 s\u00edly, by v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ila potenci\u00e1l p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho konfliktu s Ruskem.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee p\u0159esn\u011b to je c\u00edlem Waitlinga.<\/p>\n

\n

How To Start War With Russia \u2013 A British Think Tank Has Ideas<\/a> vy\u0161el na moonofalabama.org. P\u0159eklad Zv\u011bdavec<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Auto\u0159i z RUSI, think tanku britsk\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany, ob\u010das p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed s cenn\u00fdmi v\u00fdzkumy. V\u011bt\u0161inou se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62323,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2184,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92210"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92210\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62323"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}