{"id":92188,"date":"2025-11-14T00:17:53","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T23:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=92188"},"modified":"2025-11-13T11:08:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T10:08:38","slug":"larry-c-johnson-jeden-z-duvodu-pomaleho-postupu-ruske-armady-v-letech-2023-a-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/14\/larry-c-johnson-jeden-z-duvodu-pomaleho-postupu-ruske-armady-v-letech-2023-a-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: Jeden z d\u016fvod\u016f pomal\u00e9ho postupu rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy v letech 2023 a 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed analytici se \u010dasto vysm\u00edvaj\u00ed a zesm\u011b\u0161\u0148uj\u00ed ruskou arm\u00e1du za jej\u00ed pomal\u00fd postup p\u0159i znovudobyt\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed v letech 2023 a 2024. Tento \u00fadajn\u011b pomal\u00fd pokrok v\u0161ak nebyl v\u00fdsledkem \u0161patn\u00e9ho veden\u00ed ani \u0161patn\u00e9 taktiky\u2026 Byl to person\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9m. V p\u0159edve\u010der rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu (kter\u00e1 za\u010dala 24. \u00fanora 2022) rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161ovaly ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly, pokud jde o aktivn\u00ed voj\u00e1ky. I toto \u010d\u00edslo je v\u0161ak zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed. Chcete-li dob\u00fdt opevn\u011bn\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 pozice, pot\u0159ebujete pozemn\u00ed jednotky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko zah\u00e1jilo Speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojenskou operaci (SMO) v \u00fanoru 2022 s odhadovan\u00fdm po\u010dtem 280 000 pozemn\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f, zat\u00edmco Ukrajina jich m\u011bla p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 130 000. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku SMO v\u0161ak na Ukrajinu vstoupilo pouze 125 000 rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. Tradi\u010dn\u00ed doktr\u00edna vel\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edla by m\u011bla m\u00edt \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobnou s\u00edlu voj\u00e1k\u016f, aby m\u011bla rozumnou \u0161anci porazit zako\u0159en\u011bnou arm\u00e1du. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Rusko nasadilo mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b voj\u00e1k\u016f, ne\u017e je tato nezbytn\u00e1 s\u00edla, je prima facie d\u016fkazem toho, \u017ee Putin nem\u011bl v \u00famyslu okupovat celou Ukrajinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abych to uvedl do perspektivy, pou\u017eiji jako m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko bitvu u Stalingradu\u2026 Bitva u Stalingradu byla zlomov\u00fdm bodem druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a zahrnovala masivn\u00ed sov\u011btsk\u00e9 s\u00edly nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d n\u011bkolika frontami a f\u00e1zemi. Term\u00edn \u201esov\u011btsk\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed s\u00edly\u201c ozna\u010duje jednotky Rud\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy (p\u011bchota, tanky, d\u011blost\u0159electvo atd.), s v\u00fdjimkou leteck\u00fdch a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch jednotek, pokud nebyly integrov\u00e1ny do pozemn\u00edch operac\u00ed. B\u011bhem po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 f\u00e1ze (srpen\u2013listopad 1942) nasadili Sov\u011bti pod velen\u00edm Jeremenka na Stalingradskou frontu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 187 000\u2013200 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f. Sov\u011bti b\u011bhem t\u011bchto \u010dty\u0159 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f utrp\u011bli t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty a siln\u011b oslaben\u00e9 jednotky byly dopl\u0148ov\u00e1ny p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 000 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. Sov\u011bti zlomili p\u00e1te\u0159 n\u011bmeck\u00e9 6. arm\u00e1dy mezi prosincem 1942 a \u00fanorem 1943 o dal\u0161\u00edch 1 100 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed za\u00fato\u010dili na n\u011bmeck\u00e9 boky v r\u00e1mci operace Uran (19.\u201323. listopadu 1942), co\u017e nakonec vedlo k obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00e1 bojov\u00e1 z\u00f3na bitvy o Stalingrad se t\u00e1hla od severu k jihu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 35 km. Srovnejte to s dne\u0161n\u00ed kontaktn\u00ed lini\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 se t\u00e1hne od severu k jihu 1300 km. Nedostatek person\u00e1lu je hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d se Rusko rozhodlo pro pomalou a vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti Ukrajin\u011b \u2013 k kompenzaci sv\u00fdch relativn\u011b mal\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch sil pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 rakety, d\u011blost\u0159electvo, drony a plachetnice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022 aktivoval rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161t\u00e1b pl\u00e1ny na \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nedostatku person\u00e1lu mobilizac\u00ed 300 000 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f a zintenzivn\u011bn\u00edm \u00fasil\u00ed o n\u00e1bor smluvn\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f. Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da se od invaze na Ukrajinu v roce 2022 zna\u010dn\u011b rozrostla prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00fdch mobilizac\u00ed, smluvn\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f a prezidentsk\u00fdch dekret\u016f o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed jej\u00ed povolen\u00e9 s\u00edly. Zde je rozpis na z\u00e1klad\u011b nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dostupn\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f k listopadu 2025:<\/span><\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed odhady pro aktivn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd person\u00e1l<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n
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zdroj<\/span><\/strong><\/th>\nDatum\/Kontext<\/span><\/strong><\/th>\nAktivn\u00ed person\u00e1l (celkov\u00fd po\u010det ozbrojen\u00fdch sil)<\/span><\/strong><\/th>\nPozemn\u00ed jednotky \/ specifick\u00e9 pro arm\u00e1du<\/span><\/strong><\/th>\nPozn\u00e1mky<\/span><\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
IISS (Vojensk\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha 2025)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nZa\u010d\u00e1tek roku 2025<\/span><\/td>\n~1 134 000<\/span><\/td>\n~550 000\u2013600 000 (odhad)<\/span><\/td>\nN\u00e1r\u016fst o 234 000 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 900 000 p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou; s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m v elitn\u00edch jednotk\u00e1ch (nap\u0159. n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchota se sn\u00ed\u017eila na pouh\u00fdch asi 10 000).<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed palebn\u00e1 s\u00edla (GFP) 2025<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nLeden 2025 (aktualizov\u00e1no)<\/span><\/td>\n~1 320 000<\/span><\/td>\n~550 000<\/span><\/td>\nRusko se um\u00edstilo na 2. m\u00edst\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b; zahrnuje voj\u00e1ky na smlouvu a mobilizovan\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky; celkov\u00fd person\u00e1l (aktivn\u00ed + z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed + polovojensk\u00e9) ~3,57 milionu.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Statista (s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na ruskou vl\u00e1du a GFP)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nZ\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024 (progn\u00f3za pro rok 2025)<\/span><\/td>\n~1 320 000<\/span><\/td>\nneuvedeno<\/span><\/td>\n\u010ctvrt\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed aktivn\u00ed arm\u00e1da na sv\u011bt\u011b; 37 % z celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3,57 milionu voj\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Putin\u016fv dekret (p\u0159es Moscow Times)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nZ\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024 (platn\u00e9 od zimy 2024\u20132025)<\/span><\/td>\n1 500 000<\/span><\/td>\n~760 000 (odhadov\u00e1no p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 % celkov\u00e9 s\u00edly)<\/span><\/td>\n+180 000 oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edm 1,32 milion\u016fm; pln\u00e1 implementace je pl\u00e1nov\u00e1na do konce roku 2025.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ukrajinsk\u00fd vrchn\u00ed velitel Syrsky<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nDuben 2025<\/span><\/td>\nneuvedeno<\/span><\/td>\n623 000 (v ukrajinsk\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed oblasti)<\/span><\/td>\nPouze bojov\u00e9 jednotky; celkov\u00e1 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e1 s\u00edla ozbrojen\u00fdch sil (cca 1,5 milionu+); n\u00e1r\u016fst o 8 000\u20139 000 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b d\u00edky dobrovoln\u00edk\u016fm.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kongresov\u00e1 v\u00fdzkumn\u00e1 slu\u017eba<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nkv\u011bten 2025<\/span><\/td>\n~1 500 000<\/span><\/td>\nneuvedeno<\/span><\/td>\nOdr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pl\u00e1ny expanze pro rok 2024; odkazuje na n\u00e1borov\u00e9 bonusy a z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e pro zbrojn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

Rusko od zah\u00e1jen\u00ed operace SMO nejm\u00e9n\u011b ztrojn\u00e1sobilo sv\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed s\u00edly, co\u017e vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d Rusko nyn\u00ed okupuje v\u00edce \u00fazem\u00ed a prov\u00e1d\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fatoky pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9 kontaktn\u00ed linie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed operace v letech 2023 a 2024 omezily dva dal\u0161\u00ed faktory:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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  1. \u0161kolen\u00ed nov\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f a<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Putin\u016fv p\u0159\u00edkaz minimalizovat rusk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Jakmile je podeps\u00e1na smlouva nebo je odveden branec, nov\u00ed voj\u00e1ci jsou posl\u00e1ni na z\u00e1kladn\u00ed v\u00fdcvik a n\u00e1sledn\u011b na pokro\u010dil\u00fd individu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdcvik. Zat\u00edmco v roce 2023 byla doba v\u00fdcviku zkr\u00e1cena, aby se posily dostaly na frontu rychleji, Rusko si nyn\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u011b m\u016f\u017ee dovolit luxus poskytnout nov\u00fdm rekrut\u016fm alespo\u0148 \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00fdcviku, ne\u017e jsou vysl\u00e1ni do boje.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Putin\u016fv rozkaz minimalizovat ztr\u00e1ty vedl rusk\u00e9 velitele k upu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed od \u00fatok\u016f \u201elidskou vlnou\u201c a k v\u00fdvoji nov\u00fdch taktik: masivn\u00ed satura\u010dn\u00ed palba raketami, d\u011blost\u0159electvem, drony a klouzav\u00fdmi bombami ke zni\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch pozic, n\u00e1sledovan\u00e1 mal\u00fdmi jednotkami \u010dist\u00edc\u00edmi ukrajinsk\u00e1 opevn\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Abych kr\u00e1tce zm\u011bnil t\u00e9ma: Narazil jsem na video, kter\u00e9 je podle m\u011b vhodnou metaforou k popisu rozd\u00edlu mezi Evropou a Ruskem. (N\u00e1pov\u011bda: Evropa je \u010divava.)<\/span><\/p>\n