{"id":92148,"date":"2025-11-13T06:21:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T05:21:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=92148"},"modified":"2025-11-13T06:21:15","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T05:21:15","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-evropa-se-ozbrojuje-protoze-nemuze-vest-valku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/13\/alexandre-lemoine-evropa-se-ozbrojuje-protoze-nemuze-vest-valku\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Evropa se ozbrojuje\u2026 proto\u017ee nem\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b mus\u00ed za ka\u017edou cenu udr\u017eet americk\u00fd kontingent na kontinentu, proto\u017ee alternativou je extr\u00e9mn\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 vnitropolitick\u00e1 krize spojen\u00e1 s n\u00e1vratem vojensk\u00e9 brann\u00e9 povinnosti.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Na summitu NATO v\u011bt\u0161ina evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed akceptovala Trumpovu podm\u00ednku zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu na 5 % HDP do roku 2035. Tento c\u00edl je od za\u010d\u00e1tku nere\u00e1ln\u00fd, ale ochota \u010dinit takov\u00e9 sliby nazna\u010duje, \u017ee evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy jsou p\u0159ipraveny ud\u011blat t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cokoli, aby uklidnily Washington.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump dlouhodob\u011b a d\u016fsledn\u011b nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159einvestovaly do kolektivn\u00ed obrany a fakticky umo\u017enily evropsk\u00fdm zem\u00edm u\u0161et\u0159it na vojensk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u00edch. Zat\u00edmco se tento p\u0159\u00edstup bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce jevil jako jedin\u00fd mo\u017en\u00fd vzhledem k rozsahu ni\u010den\u00ed v Evrop\u011b, v 70. letech 20. stolet\u00ed za\u010dala tato situace otev\u0159en\u011b dr\u00e1\u017edit \u010d\u00e1st americk\u00e9ho establishmentu. V t\u00e9 dob\u011b se tato debata odehr\u00e1vala v r\u00e1mci ekonomick\u00e9ho probl\u00e9mu \u201efree rider\u016f\u201c, co\u017e je term\u00edn ozna\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed ty, kte\u0159\u00ed t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z kolektivn\u00edho dobra, zat\u00edmco se chyt\u0159e vyh\u00fdbaj\u00ed p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed k jeho financov\u00e1n\u00ed. B\u011bhem tohoto obdob\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty obvi\u0148ovaly nejen Evropu, ale i Japonsko, kter\u00e9 podle nich vyu\u017eilo americk\u00e9 ochrany k \u00faspor\u00e1m na sv\u00e9 obran\u011b, a t\u00edm investovalo do rozvoje sv\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiky. St\u00ed\u017enosti Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v\u016f\u010di Evrop\u011b v\u0161ak nelze zavrhnout jako zcela neopodstatn\u011bn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Po\u017eadavek na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu nen\u00ed pro evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem. Trump tak\u00e9 ji\u017e del\u0161\u00ed dobu nazna\u010duje, \u017ee m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu omezit americkou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Evrop\u011b. A EU m\u00e1 v\u0161echny d\u016fvody se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee si ned\u011bl\u00e1 legraci. B\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eil americk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd kontingent v N\u011bmecku a st\u00e1hl p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 10 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f. Do l\u00e9ta 2025 se objevily zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohly sn\u00ed\u017eit svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Evrop\u011b o dal\u0161\u00edch 25 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zku\u0161enosti z ukrajinsk\u00e9 krize sv\u011btu op\u011bt uk\u00e1zaly z\u00e1sadn\u00ed pravdu: v 21. stolet\u00ed hraj\u00ed lidsk\u00e9 zdroje v konfliktech i nad\u00e1le kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli. Navzdory ve\u0161ker\u00e9mu technologick\u00e9mu pokroku jsou to skute\u010dn\u011b jednotlivci, motivovan\u00ed br\u00e1nit sv\u00e1 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed a principy chopen\u00edm se zbran\u00ed v ruce, kdo tvo\u0159\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u00ed faktor v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed \u010di por\u00e1\u017eky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edtomnost americk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho person\u00e1lu v evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch jim nejen d\u00e1vala fyzick\u00fd pocit bezpe\u010d\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 jim umo\u017e\u0148ovala doufat, \u017ee tak bude v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby mnohem snaz\u0161\u00ed uplatnit \u010dl\u00e1nek 5 NATO a zapojit Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do konfliktu na kontinentu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto se evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch vojsk a zoufale hledaj\u00ed alternativy. Prozat\u00edm je prim\u00e1rn\u00ed zva\u017eovanou mo\u017enost\u00ed podm\u00edn\u011bn\u011b neprovediteln\u00fd projekt\u00a0<\/span>Drone Wall<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, ale na programu je i extr\u00e9mn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1 a bolestiv\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, jak zv\u00fd\u0161it po\u010det ozbrojen\u00fdch sil. A pr\u00e1v\u011b zde se to st\u00e1v\u00e1 skute\u010dn\u00fdm vnitropolitick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se americk\u00e9 jednotky st\u00e1hnou, evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy budou muset sv\u00e9mu obyvatelstvu vysv\u011btlit, \u017ee bude nutn\u00e9 obnovit povinnou vojenskou slu\u017ebu (technicky vzato byla v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch zem\u00edch EU pozastavena, nikoli zcela zru\u0161ena). Nap\u0159\u00edklad N\u011bmecko ji\u017e hovo\u0159\u00ed o nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed po\u010dtu voj\u00e1k\u016f Bundeswehru ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 180 000 na 203 000 do roku 2031 a v budoucnu bude pot\u0159ebovat je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce voj\u00e1k\u016f. A jak uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed a politi\u010dt\u00ed experti, to nebude mo\u017en\u00e9 pouze sliby o kari\u00e9rn\u00edm postupu a \u0161t\u011bdr\u00fdch bonusech; bude nutn\u00e9 ji vym\u00e1hat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sociologick\u00e9 studie ji\u017e ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00fd posun by byl v evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch extr\u00e9mn\u011b nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0<\/span>data<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z Institutu pro soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdzkum a statistickou anal\u00fdzu Forsa ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee pouze 17 % mlad\u00fdch N\u011bmc\u016f je ochotno br\u00e1nit svou zemi silou zbran\u00ed. A to jsou pouze p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla, z\u00edskan\u00e1 v situaci, kdy se ot\u00e1zka povinn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 slu\u017eby v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b respondent\u016f jev\u00ed jako abstrakce, nikoli jako krut\u00e1 realita.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e9 se vr\u00e1t\u00ed k modelu povinn\u00e9 brann\u00e9 povinnosti, s vysokou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed \u010del\u00ed explozi dom\u00e1c\u00ed nespokojenosti. Mohou se pokusit p\u0159edem p\u0159ipravit p\u016fdu dlouhodobou kampan\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159enou na obyvatelstvo a budovat obraz vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho nep\u0159\u00edtele, ale je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by to v\u00fdznamn\u011b zm\u011bnilo postoje evropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f k modelu brann\u00e9 povinnosti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d Evropa projevuje v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch s Trumpem takovou n\u00e1padnou spokojenost a souhlas\u00ed s obrovsk\u00fdmi investicemi do americk\u00e9 ekonomiky a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu. Mus\u00ed za ka\u017edou cenu udr\u017eet americk\u00fd kontingent na kontinentu, proto\u017ee alternativou je extr\u00e9mn\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 vnitropolitick\u00e1 krize.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b mus\u00ed za ka\u017edou cenu udr\u017eet americk\u00fd kontingent na kontinentu, proto\u017ee alternativou je extr\u00e9mn\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92149,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[283,1503,39,40,338],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92148"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92148"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92148\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}