{"id":92026,"date":"2025-11-12T00:30:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T23:30:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=92026"},"modified":"2025-11-11T12:51:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T11:51:30","slug":"andrew-korybko-fsb-prave-zmarila-to-co-mohlo-byt-po-cele-veky-provokaci-pod-falesnou-vlajkou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/12\/andrew-korybko-fsb-prave-zmarila-to-co-mohlo-byt-po-cele-veky-provokaci-pod-falesnou-vlajkou\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: FSB pr\u00e1v\u011b zma\u0159ila to, co mohlo b\u00fdt po cel\u00e9 v\u011bky provokac\u00ed pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zkorumpov\u00e1n\u00ed pilota MiGu-31 vyzbrojen\u00e9ho hypersonick\u00fdmi raketami Kin\u017eal k p\u0159eb\u011bhnut\u00ed a jeho n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 sest\u0159elen\u00ed pobl\u00ed\u017e m\u00edsta, kter\u00e9 se stane nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed leteckou z\u00e1kladnou NATO v Evrop\u011b, riskovalo rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eba (FSB)\u00a0<\/span>obvinila\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Ukrajinu a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed z pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed velkolep\u00e9 provokace pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou, kter\u00e1 mohla v\u00e9st k v\u00e1lce s NATO. Podle nich se sna\u017eily zkorumpovat pilota st\u00edha\u010dky MiG-31 vyzbrojen\u00e9ho hypersonick\u00fdmi raketami Kin\u017eal k p\u0159eb\u011bhnut\u00ed, ale pot\u00e9 by byl sest\u0159elen pobl\u00ed\u017e rumunsk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edmo\u0159sk\u00e9ho m\u011bsta Konstanca. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee se v bl\u00edzkosti stav\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed leteck\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna NATO v Evrop\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, tak\u017ee incident mohl v\u00e9st k bezprecedentn\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto odhalen\u00ed n\u00e1sleduje po varov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby (SVR), \u017ee v Pobalt\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>Polsku\u00a0<\/span><\/a>se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed provokace pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou\u00a0<\/span>, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem by m\u011blo b\u00fdt vyvolat eskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed s NATO, kter\u00e1 podle organiz\u00e1tor\u016f skon\u010d\u00ed rusk\u00fdmi strategick\u00fdmi \u00fastupky. V souvislosti s t\u00edm se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee by se Trump c\u00edtil nucen zas\u00e1hnout, a\u0165 u\u017e chrast\u011bn\u00edm zbran\u00ed k v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9mu c\u00edli, nebo dokonce povolen\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho zapojen\u00ed USA do \u201eodvetn\u00e9ho \u00faderu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee se v\u0161e m\u016f\u017ee snadno vymknout kontrole a zvrhnout se v t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku, jeliko\u017e dobrovoln\u00e9 pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Ruska Z\u00e1padu pod takov\u00fdm n\u00e1tlakem nelze br\u00e1t jako samoz\u0159ejmost, a proto je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, aby FSB zma\u0159ila to, co mohlo b\u00fdt po v\u011bky provokac\u00ed pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou. Mo\u017en\u00e1 apokalyptick\u00e9 s\u00e1zky ukazuj\u00ed, jak zoufal\u00e9 se Ukrajina a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed staly za posledn\u00ed rok od doby, kdy za\u010daly pl\u00e1novat tuto operaci. Situace tehdy pro Ukrajinu nebyla ani tak \u0161patn\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>jako nyn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b je t\u0159eba tak\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee Trumpovo rozhodnut\u00ed z minul\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce\u00a0<\/span>znovu eskalovat\u00a0<\/span><\/a>proti Rusku zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee by byl manipulov\u00e1n jejich provokac\u00ed pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou a hr\u00e1l n\u011bjakou roli, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se zv\u00fd\u0161ilo riziko vypuknut\u00ed ostr\u00e9 rusko-americk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e1 by se mohla rychle zvrhnout v jadernou. Koneckonc\u016f se nyn\u00ed p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u00ed k p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee je to Putin, kdo je zoufal\u00fdm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm \u0161tv\u00e1\u010dem odhodlan\u00fdm vyvolat nebezpe\u010dnou eskalaci, kterou by se pak pokusil vyu\u017e\u00edt k odd\u00e1len\u00ed sv\u00e9 nevyhnuteln\u00e9 prohry, nikoli Zelenskyj.<\/span><\/p>\n

Realita je v\u0161ak v\u017edy opa\u010dn\u00e1, jeliko\u017e Putin t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u017edy odm\u00edt\u00e1 eskalaci po ka\u017ed\u00e9 Z\u00e1padem podporovan\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 provokaci za posledn\u00edch 3,5 roku. Jedin\u00fdmi v\u00fdjimkami bylo schv\u00e1len\u00ed \u00fader\u016f proti vojensky relevantn\u00ed kritick\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e po bombov\u00e9m \u00fatoku na Krymsk\u00fd most a\u00a0<\/span>jednor\u00e1zov\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed syst\u00e9m\u016f Ore\u0161nik\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v reakci na to, \u017ee angloamerick\u00e1 Osa umo\u017enila Ukrajin\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt jejich rakety dlouh\u00e9ho doletu uvnit\u0159 Ruska. Jeho z\u00e1m\u011brem bylo odradit Ukrajinu od dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto v\u00fdjimky z v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho pravidla upravuj\u00edc\u00edho Putinovo chov\u00e1n\u00ed, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b to, \u017ee po ka\u017ed\u00e9 Z\u00e1padem podporovan\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 provokaci projev\u00ed svatou d\u00e1vku trp\u011blivosti ve snaze zabr\u00e1nit t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, i za cenu rozru\u0161en\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f, byly v\u00fdznamn\u011b reakc\u00ed. Nejednalo se o proaktivn\u00ed eskalaci, o jej\u00edm\u017e zah\u00e1jen\u00ed od za\u010d\u00e1tku speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>operace\u00a0<\/span><\/a>nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z\u00e1znamy\u00a0<\/a>, tak\u017ee hypotetick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch t\u00e9to spole\u010dn\u00e9 ukrajinsko-britsk\u00e9 operace pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou by byl podez\u0159ele netypick\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

I tak by to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b Trumpa oklamalo z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly vysv\u011btleny, a to, \u017ee lze tvrdit, \u017ee FSB mo\u017en\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b odvr\u00e1tila t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku. Bez ohledu na n\u00e1zor na z\u00e1va\u017enost t\u00e9to provokace je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee na n\u00ed pracuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bdal\u0161\u00ed, a to v\u0161e s \u00famyslem vyvolat nebezpe\u010dnou eskalaci ze zoufalstv\u00ed, aby donutili Rusko k \u00fastupk\u016fm. FSB proto bude i nad\u00e1le d\u011blat v\u0161e pro to, aby zma\u0159ila v\u0161echny tyto provokace pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou, kter\u00e9 by se mohly vymknout kontrole.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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Zkorumpov\u00e1n\u00ed pilota MiGu-31 vyzbrojen\u00e9ho hypersonick\u00fdmi raketami Kin\u017eal k p\u0159eb\u011bhnut\u00ed a jeho n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 sest\u0159elen\u00ed pobl\u00ed\u017e m\u00edsta,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92027,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2184,686,2328,7675,716,1635],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92026"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92026\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}