{"id":91949,"date":"2025-11-11T04:44:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T03:44:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=91949"},"modified":"2025-11-11T04:44:01","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T03:44:01","slug":"cil-zapadu-natrvalo-vytlacit-rusky-plyn-za-jakou-cenu-pro-evropu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/11\/cil-zapadu-natrvalo-vytlacit-rusky-plyn-za-jakou-cenu-pro-evropu\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00edl Z\u00e1padu \u201enatrvalo vytla\u010dit rusk\u00fd plyn\u201c: za jakou cenu pro Evropu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00fd plyn lze postupn\u011b ukon\u010dit \u201enatrvalo\u201c, ale P-TEC odhaluje skute\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady t\u00e9to strategie. Z\u00e1vislost na LNG, vliv USA a rostouc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty za energie ohro\u017euj\u00ed evropskou ekonomiku. Geopolitick\u00fd posun by mohl z\u00e1vislost Evropy je\u0161t\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0160est\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>partnerstv\u00ed pro transatlantickou energetickou spolupr\u00e1ci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(P-TEC) se konalo minul\u00fd t\u00fdden v At\u00e9n\u00e1ch, kde Washington a jeho evrop\u0161t\u00ed partne\u0159i op\u011bt sl\u00edbili, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>natrvalo nahrad\u00ed rusk\u00fd plyn<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je narativ, kter\u00fd dominuje tvorb\u011b z\u00e1padn\u00ed politiky od roku 2022. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda je to skute\u010dn\u011b provediteln\u00e9, nebo zda se jedn\u00e1 pouze o politick\u00e9 heslo spojen\u00e9 s n\u00e1kladn\u00fdm dlouhodob\u00fdm energetick\u00fdm hazardem. \u010clov\u011bk si m\u016f\u017ee vzpomenout, \u017ee Evropa se kdysi py\u0161nila \u201eenergetick\u00fdm pragmatismem\u201c, zejm\u00e9na\u00a0<\/span>N\u011bmecko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, jeho\u017e pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd model se spol\u00e9hal na konkurenceschopn\u00fd rusk\u00fd plynovodn\u00ed syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington nyn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>nal\u00e9h\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na Evropu, aby urychlila odklon od rusk\u00e9ho plynu a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila dovoz LNG. To je ji\u017e dlouho americk\u00fd c\u00edl a p\u00ed\u0161u o tom\u00a0p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>od roku 2021. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se Brusel nyn\u00ed s t\u00edmto postojem ztoto\u017e\u0148uje, \u010d\u00edm\u017e urychluje z\u00e1vislost Evropy na dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch LNG, kter\u00e9 jsou z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti kontrolov\u00e1ny producenty napojen\u00fdmi na USA.\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Agenda P-TEC<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se nepochybn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159uje na \u201ezaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed\u201c dod\u00e1vek z jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed ne\u017e z Ruska a z\u00e1rove\u0148 na upevn\u011bn\u00ed vlivu USA na energetickou architekturu Evropy. Nejde ani tak o \u201ediverzifikaci\u201c jako sp\u00ed\u0161e o p\u0159eorientov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale op\u011bt, je skute\u010dn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9 \u201enatrvalo nahradit rusk\u00fd plyn\u201c? \u010cist\u011b teoreticky ano. Evropa by se mohla spolehnout na LNG, obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje, omezenou dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkci, zdroje ze severn\u00ed Afriky a v\u00fdchodn\u00edho St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed a tak\u00e9 na zlep\u0161en\u00ed propojen\u00ed. Z praktick\u00e9ho, ekonomick\u00e9ho a geopolitick\u00e9ho hlediska jsou v\u0161ak v\u00fdzvy, m\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, obrovsk\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9, nahrazen\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho plynu z plynovod\u016f vy\u017eaduje sn\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f. LNG je\u00a0<\/span>dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na p\u0159epravu, regasifikaci a distribuci. Minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o evropsk\u00e9 \u201ebolesti hlavy\u201c ohledn\u011b Nord Streamu a o prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch politick\u00fdch sporech mezi Polskem, N\u011bmeckem a Ukrajinou. Tato epizoda ilustruje, jak k\u0159ehk\u00fd je evropsk\u00fd energetick\u00fd konsenzus. P\u0159ipo\u010dt\u011bte k tomu\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1hadu sabot\u00e1\u017ee<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e1 kolem Nord Streamu st\u00e1le p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1; nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee evropsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl dnes shled\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dty za energie natolik ne\u00fanosn\u00fdmi, \u017ee by to podkopalo jeho konkurenceschopnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 snadn\u00e9 alternativn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Evropa se obr\u00e1tila na\u00a0<\/span>Norsko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, aby kompenzovaly ztr\u00e1ty rusk\u00e9ho plynu z plynovod\u016f, ale i ty mohou ud\u011blat jen omezen\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed. Produkce Norska stagnuje\u00a0<\/span>a<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee po roce 2026 klesne, zat\u00edmco dod\u00e1vky \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho Ji\u017en\u00edho plynov\u00e9ho koridoru z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed co do rozsahu\u00a0<\/span>omezen\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. V severn\u00ed Africe se Al\u017e\u00edrsko sna\u017e\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st mezery zaplnit, ale jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>tvrdil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ji\u017e v roce 2023, region\u00e1ln\u00ed rivalita \u2013 zejm\u00e9na s Marokem ohledn\u011b Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Sahary \u2013 podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 dlouhodobou spolehlivost. To z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pravdou. Velkolep\u00e9 heslo \u201eenergetick\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti\u201c je mnohem slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed, nedostate\u010dn\u011b informovanou realitou je, \u017ee zbytek sv\u011bta se k evropsk\u00e9mu embargov\u00e9mu ta\u017een\u00ed nep\u0159ipojil. Turecko, Indie a \u010c\u00edna nad\u00e1le obchoduj\u00ed s Moskvou. Dokonce i asijsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty naklon\u011bn\u00e9 Z\u00e1padu udr\u017euj\u00ed strategick\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 vazby s Ruskem.\u00a0<\/span>Japonsko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed zainteresovan\u00fdmi stranami v projektu Sachalin-2 LNG \u2013 tolik k my\u0161lence \u201esjednocen\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padu\u201c v ot\u00e1zce energetick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed. Dalo by se nam\u00edtnout, \u017ee se nejedn\u00e1 o pokrytectv\u00ed, ale o realpolitiku. Evropsk\u00e9 elity se v\u0161ak zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt ochotny p\u0159ijmout stejn\u00fd pragmatick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0158ecko je pak \u010dasto prezentov\u00e1no jako kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d v evropsk\u00e9 postrusk\u00e9 plynov\u00e9 \u00e9\u0159e. Je pravda, \u017ee At\u00e9ny se aktivn\u011b prezentuj\u00ed jako\u00a0<\/span>strategick\u00e1 br\u00e1na pro LNG<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro americk\u00e9 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed z\u00e1soby. Ministr energetiky ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>projednal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se sv\u00fdm americk\u00fdm prot\u011bj\u0161kem program summitu P-TEC. Na pap\u00ed\u0159e role \u0158ecka jako tranzitn\u00edho uzlu zvy\u0161uje jeho v\u00fdznam a infrastruktura, jako je termin\u00e1l LNG v Alexandroupolisu, skute\u010dn\u011b posiluje region\u00e1ln\u00ed propojen\u00ed. At\u00e9ny tak\u00e9 o\u017eivuj\u00ed pr\u016fzkum na mo\u0159i, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e spole\u010dnosti ExxonMobil, Energean a Hellenic Energy\u00a0<\/span>uzav\u0159ely<\/span><\/a>\u00a0historickou\u00a0<\/span>dohodu o vrt\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0hlubokomo\u0159sk\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Znovu se jedn\u00e1 o sd\u011blen\u00ed, \u017ee Evropa vstupuje do \u201enov\u00e9\u201c energetick\u00e9 kapitoly. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee je \u0158ecko propagov\u00e1no jako kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd d\u00edlek evropsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 skl\u00e1da\u010dky.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u0159\u00edzliv\u00fd pohled v\u0161ak odhaluje omezen\u00ed. Pr\u016fzkum na mo\u0159i trv\u00e1 roky, ne\u017e se za\u010dne t\u011b\u017eba, a geopolitick\u00e9 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky, jako je \u201e\u00a0<\/span>tureck\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed spory, tlak na \u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed a p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed siln\u00fdmi riziky. P\u0159ekl\u00e1dka LNG se nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b prom\u00edtnout do cenov\u011b dostupn\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed energie nebo pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho o\u017eiven\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0158ecko by se mohlo st\u00e1t tranzitn\u00ed z\u00f3nou, z n\u00ed\u017e by v\u00edce profitovali ostatn\u00ed ne\u017e jen oni sami. Obnoven\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9ho form\u00e1tu \u201e\u00a0<\/span>3+1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c zahrnuj\u00edc\u00edho \u0158ecko, Kypr, Izrael a USA ukazuje geopolitick\u00fd z\u00e1jem, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 riskuje zapleten\u00ed At\u00e9n do region\u00e1ln\u00edch rivalit bez zaru\u010den\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00ednosu. Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, b\u00fdt centrem neznamen\u00e1 b\u00fdt v\u00edt\u011bzem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bulharsko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0mezit\u00edm\u00a0prohlubuje energetickou spolupr\u00e1ci s USA na strategick\u00fdch projektech, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Washington usiluje o \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed sjednocen\u00ed. Zda to v\u0161ak prosp\u00edv\u00e1 b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm Evropan\u016fm, st\u00e1le nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Odm\u00edtnut\u00ed Evropy uvalit sankce nap\u0159\u00edklad na\u00a0<\/span>Izrael<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 rychl\u00e9 odsouzen\u00ed Ruska za\u00a0<\/span>krizi p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b zp\u016fsobenou Z\u00e1padem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 odhaluje jej\u00ed do o\u010d\u00ed bij\u00edc\u00ed dvoj\u00ed metr a mor\u00e1ln\u00ed pokrytectv\u00ed v ot\u00e1zce mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va a lidsk\u00fdch pr\u00e1v.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, evropsk\u00fd politick\u00fd establishment prezentuje opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho plynu jako jak\u00fdsi mor\u00e1ln\u00ed a strategick\u00fd imperativ \u2013 p\u0159esto\u00a0<\/span>Ma\u010farsko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Slovensko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdjimky k udr\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00e9 ropy p\u0159es Dru\u017ebu a plynu p\u0159es TurkStream), plus\u00a0<\/span>Francie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>Belgie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>It\u00e1lie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Rakousko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, st\u00e1le dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho plynu, zejm\u00e9na LNG, a to navzdory\u00a0<\/span>tlaku na postupn\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed do roku 2027.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Krom\u011b t\u011bchto v\u00fdhrad si Evropa n\u00e1rokuje energetickou bezpe\u010dnost a autonomii, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e riskuje zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti \u2013 tentokr\u00e1t na americk\u00e9m LNG, nestabilit\u011b na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a slo\u017eit\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kritici proto tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee c\u00edlem nen\u00ed \u201eenergetick\u00e1 nez\u00e1vislost\u201c, ale p\u0159eskupen\u00ed pod americk\u00fdm veden\u00edm. Evropsk\u00e1 volba m\u00e1 svou geopolitickou logiku: oslabit rusk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy, spojit se s Washingtonem a integrovat energetickou politiku se strategi\u00ed NATO. Cena, kterou Evropan\u00e9 plat\u00ed \u2013 deindustrializace, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed n\u00e1klady a strategick\u00e1 expozice \u2013 je v\u0161ak jen z\u0159\u00eddka up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b diskutov\u00e1na.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom to shrnuli, Evropa m\u016f\u017ee teoreticky postupn\u011b ukon\u010dit rusk\u00fd plyn \u201enatrvalo\u201c. To by v\u0161ak vy\u017eadovalo roky trvale vysok\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f, politick\u00fd konsenzus, diverzifikaci alternativn\u00edch dod\u00e1vek a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00ed. Chov\u00e1n\u00ed zbytku sv\u011bta sp\u00ed\u0161e ukazuje, \u017ee izolace jednoho z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch producent\u016f energie je v nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b z\u00e1padoevropskou fixac\u00ed. Je naprosto z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed prosazuje pragmatickou energetickou politiku zalo\u017eenou na n\u00e1rodn\u00edm z\u00e1jmu \u2013 nikoli na ideologick\u00fdch k\u0159\u00ed\u017eov\u00fdch v\u00fdprav\u00e1ch. Zda si to Evropa nakonec p\u0159izn\u00e1, se teprve uvid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00fd plyn lze postupn\u011b ukon\u010dit \u201enatrvalo\u201c, ale P-TEC odhaluje skute\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":91950,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1008,22,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91949"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}