{"id":91933,"date":"2025-11-11T00:30:46","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T23:30:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=91933"},"modified":"2025-11-10T17:40:18","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T16:40:18","slug":"klimaticke-modely-opet-selhavaji-apokalypsa-hurikanu-se-nenaplnila","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/11\/klimaticke-modely-opet-selhavaji-apokalypsa-hurikanu-se-nenaplnila\/","title":{"rendered":"Klimatick\u00e9 modely op\u011bt selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed: Apokalypsa hurik\u00e1n\u016f se nenaplnila"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Klimatick\u00e9 modely se op\u011bt neshoduj\u00ed s realitou. Nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu tropick\u00fdch cykl\u00f3n, a to ani v Karibiku, ani glob\u00e1ln\u011b. V podstat\u011b jednodu\u0161e za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me obvykl\u00e9 sez\u00f3nn\u00ed pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed vzorce.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u0161ichni zn\u00e1me postup: Jakmile se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed l\u00e9to, klimati\u010dt\u00ed proroci z NOAA a jim podobn\u00ed oznamuj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 soudn\u00e9ho dne. \u201eNadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 aktivita\u201c, \u201ev\u00edce a siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch bou\u0159\u00ed\u201c, \u201eochutn\u00e1vka klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u201c \u2013 reperto\u00e1r stra\u0161en\u00ed je dob\u0159e nacvi\u010den\u00fd. Rok 2025 nebyl v\u00fdjimkou. Ji\u017e na ja\u0159e americk\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 slu\u017eba NOAA p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bla \u201enadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd rok\u201c pro atlantskou hurik\u00e1novou sez\u00f3nu: 19 bou\u0159\u00ed, 10 hurik\u00e1n\u016f, z nich\u017e 5 bylo obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b siln\u00fdch. Nyn\u00ed, v listopadu, s koncem sez\u00f3ny, se v\u0161ak op\u011bt ukazuje, \u017ee alarmismus a chybn\u00e9 modely nemaj\u00ed s realitou nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sez\u00f3na ve skute\u010dnosti kon\u010d\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd rok apokalyptick\u00fdch bou\u0159\u00ed, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u201enov\u00fd norm\u00e1l\u201c ni\u010den\u00ed, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy o \u00fadajn\u011b eskaluj\u00edc\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 krizi. P\u00e1r siln\u00fdch tropick\u00fdch bou\u0159\u00ed tu a tam, ale celkov\u011b: chod v\u011bc\u00ed jako obvykle.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/tropical.atmos.colostate.edu\/Realtime\/index.php?loc=northatlantic\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle \u00fadaj\u016f z University of Colorado<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0je takzvan\u00e1 \u201eakumulovan\u00e1 energie cykl\u00f3n\u016f\u201c m\u00edrn\u011b nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 \u2013 to je v\u0161e. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd trend, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd extr\u00e9mn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 dramatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna v pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch vzorc\u00edch. Jen p\u0159\u00edroda odm\u00edt\u00e1 nab\u00eddnout pod\u00edvanou, po kter\u00e9 tou\u017e\u00ed \u0161i\u0159itel\u00e9 strachu.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X Post\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOltdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2ZvbGxvd2VyX2NvdW50X3N1bnNldCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOnRydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9iYWNrZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19yZWZzcmNfc2Vzc2lvbiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZm9zbnJfc29mdF9pbnRlcnZlbnRpb25zX2VuYWJsZWQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X21peGVkX21lZGlhXzE1ODk3Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRyZWF0bWVudCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3Nob3dfYmlyZHdhdGNoX3Bpdm90c19lbmFibGVkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19kdXBsaWNhdGVfc2NyaWJlc190b19zZXR0aW5ncyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdXNlX3Byb2ZpbGVfaW1hZ2Vfc2hhcGVfZW5hYmxlZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdmlkZW9faGxzX2R5bmFtaWNfbWFuaWZlc3RzXzE1MDgyIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRydWVfYml0cmF0ZSIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfbGVnYWN5X3RpbWVsaW5lX3N1bnNldCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOnRydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9mcm9udGVuZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=1987580387120320958&amp;lang=cs&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Freport24.news%2Fklimamodelle-versagen-wieder-einmal-die-hurrikan-apokalypse-bleibt-aus%2F&amp;sessionId=05891417747a0d1c147bc55bc1c285198033346c&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"1987580387120320958\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u0158editel NOAA Ken Graham se chlubil, \u017ee nyn\u00ed disponuj\u00ed \u201enejpokro\u010dilej\u0161\u00edmi modely a varovn\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my v\u016fbec\u201c. To m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pravda \u2013 ale k \u010demu jsou modely dobr\u00e9, kdy\u017e kv\u016fli nedostate\u010dn\u00fdm a chybn\u00fdm dat\u016fm opakovan\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed \u0161patn\u00e9 v\u011bci? Navzdory superpo\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016fm, satelitn\u00edm dat\u016fm a miliardov\u00fdm rozpo\u010dt\u016fm se americk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 agentu\u0159e nepoda\u0159ilo v\u00fdrazn\u011b zlep\u0161it sv\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Klimati\u010dt\u00ed experti po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed vede ke st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm tropick\u00fdm bou\u0159\u00edm. Dlouhodob\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obraz v\u0161ak ukazuje opak: Po\u010det a intenzita tropick\u00fdch cykl\u00f3n se od 70. let 20. stolet\u00ed prakticky nezm\u011bnily a od roku 1990 dokonce m\u00edrn\u011b poklesly. V po\u010dtu ani v intenzit\u011b bou\u0159\u00ed nelze rozpoznat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fadajn\u00fd \u201eklimatick\u00fd trend\u201c. Dokonce i ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 instituce, jako je NOAA, to nyn\u00ed p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed \u2013 i kdy\u017e v nejasn\u00e9m v\u011bdeck\u00e9m \u017eargonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Webov\u00e9 str\u00e1nky v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 divize NOAA, GFDL, uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed celkem v\u011bcn\u011b: \u201eJe p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 s vysokou m\u00edrou jistoty dosp\u011bt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed koncentrace sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f v d\u016fsledku lidsk\u00e9 \u010dinnosti m\u011bly prokazateln\u00fd dopad na aktivitu hurik\u00e1n\u016f v Atlantiku.\u201c Jin\u00fdmi slovy: Prost\u011b to nev\u00edme. To ale nikomu nebr\u00e1n\u00ed v tom, aby to stejn\u011b tvrdil. Koneckonc\u016f plat\u00ed pr\u00e1vo na svobodu projevu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Skute\u010dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m le\u017e\u00ed hloub\u011bji. Klimatologie jako celek se u\u017e d\u00e1vno zvrhla v kult v\u00edry, kter\u00fd se \u017eiv\u00ed vlastn\u00edmi modely. Kdy\u017e realita odporuje p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edm, nen\u00ed to model, kter\u00fd je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za chybn\u00fd, ale realita sama. Meteorologie nen\u00ed v\u00fdjimkou: ka\u017ed\u00e9 \u201enadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9\u201c obdob\u00ed slou\u017e\u00ed jako d\u016fkaz klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn, ka\u017ed\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 je ignorov\u00e1no nebo bagatelizov\u00e1no. \u0158\u00edk\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u201em\u011bli jsme \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed\u201c, nebo \u017ee katastrofa \u201ebyla jen odlo\u017eena\u201c. To u\u017e s v\u011bdou nem\u00e1 nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho. Je to zpolitizovan\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 astrologie.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-1\" class=\"\" title=\"X Post\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-1&amp;features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOltdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2ZvbGxvd2VyX2NvdW50X3N1bnNldCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOnRydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9iYWNrZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19yZWZzcmNfc2Vzc2lvbiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZm9zbnJfc29mdF9pbnRlcnZlbnRpb25zX2VuYWJsZWQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X21peGVkX21lZGlhXzE1ODk3Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRyZWF0bWVudCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3Nob3dfYmlyZHdhdGNoX3Bpdm90c19lbmFibGVkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19kdXBsaWNhdGVfc2NyaWJlc190b19zZXR0aW5ncyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdXNlX3Byb2ZpbGVfaW1hZ2Vfc2hhcGVfZW5hYmxlZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdmlkZW9faGxzX2R5bmFtaWNfbWFuaWZlc3RzXzE1MDgyIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRydWVfYml0cmF0ZSIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfbGVnYWN5X3RpbWVsaW5lX3N1bnNldCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOnRydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9mcm9udGVuZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=1750252842412044356&amp;lang=cs&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Freport24.news%2Fklimamodelle-versagen-wieder-einmal-die-hurrikan-apokalypse-bleibt-aus%2F&amp;sessionId=05891417747a0d1c147bc55bc1c285198033346c&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"1750252842412044356\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed cykl\u00f3nov\u00e1 aktivita v\u017edy kol\u00edsala v p\u0159irozen\u00fdch rytmech, ovlivn\u011bn\u00fdch oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi proudy, slune\u010dn\u00edmi cykly a atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdmi oscilacemi. Tyto faktory jsou slo\u017eit\u00e9 a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 je pln\u011b modelovat. Ale p\u0159esn\u011b to tv\u016frci klimatick\u00fdch politik necht\u011bj\u00ed sly\u0161et. Koneckonc\u016f by ztratili kontrolu nad narativem, a t\u00edm i nad dotacemi, financov\u00e1n\u00edm a moc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Klimatick\u00e9 modely se op\u011bt neshoduj\u00ed s realitou. Nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu tropick\u00fdch cykl\u00f3n, a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":91934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[10060,873,1503],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91933"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91933"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91933\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}